Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #7 Connor Prielipp, LHP

Sorry if some of us are raining on the parade. Personally, I'm not complaining, I'm just confused. I don't follow Twins prospects all that closely, so I rely on prospect rankings to alert me to whom I might likely be seeing having an impact with the big league club within a few years. There are just so many question marks here that I can't even see how someone could project him to be an MLB starter, let alone that rare and elusive #1 ace starter that this organization just can no longer produce.

In that regard, maybe I misunderstand prospect rankings, or maybe I trust those that are based on AA/AAA players knocking on the door, not those just-drafted prospects with huge imagined/projected upside. So that's on me. Regardless, I do love the write-ups and descriptions, so I apologize for failing to show appreciation to the writers. They're fun.

And then they sorta break your heart, too, when you think about all of the other failed-to-launch prospects you've read about before.

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't know where the right place to rank Prielipp is. He's got "best prospect in the system" upside, but hasn't thrown in a professional game yet. I'm ok with this general range of ranking. He may be the single most important prospect the Twins have right now.

He was in line to be the #1 overall pick in the draft last year had he not been hurt. He's the 1 guy in the system with a real chance to be a true #1 starter. He's everything we've been asking for out of a Twins pitching prospect. But he hasn't thrown a pro pitch and may never be that guy again...

There were good reports out of his time in instructs last year. I hope they're aiming more for a controlled 80-100 innings pitched than 60 this year. But he's the guy we need to cross our fingers and hope he hits his ceiling. He changes this whole franchise if he does.

I think #7 is fair for him, if he does what we hope he does he moves up to the top 2 next year if Lewis and Lee are in the majors. (Maybe even if Lee isn't) If he has a set back or something goes wrong he drops down in the low teens. To me that is generally how the rankings go, based on upside (with some stats to back it up)

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I think someone has complained in every thread that each prospect rates too high. They can't all rate too high.

If they all seem too high, maybe we just don't have a very good list from which to pick! :)

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

 The Arraez types do not show up on these lists. 

Correct, Arraez was a high average player with no speed, no position and no power. So he slowly moved up the lists when he showed he could hit pitching at any level, I don't think they prospect rankings got him wrong, that type of player doesn't project to be an all star type player, He has proved them wrong but I would still not bet on players like that going forward.

I don't have a problem with his ranking, but people may be disappointed by the speed with which he rises threw the system. Tommy john and only 28 innings in 3 years. Don't be surprised if it takes most of this year just to get his command back. He could easily spend all year in A ball. That wouldn't make him a failure.

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Prospect ranking is so opinion based it's really hard to have too strong of a feeling one way or the other on any of them (in my opinion). "Sure thing" top prospects fail all the time. "AAAA ceiling" type players turn into stars all the time. It's just a bunch of educated guesses. And then there's differing styles in what people look for in their rankings. A number of people here are like you (from how I'm reading your post) in that they weigh AA/AAA players with production over lower level guys with projection. It's also really hard for the average fan to even pretend to have any idea what "experts" are even seeing/describing in their "projections."

I can tell you that the people doing the national rankings have a ton of real connections with major league scouts, and, many times, are former scouts who prefer to not have to travel around so much so just write about and rank prospects now. And real scouts are looking for things most of us aren't, and their "projections" are incredibly in depth and well educated. Doesn't mean anyone should base their rankings off that instead of high minors production, but when scouts are talking about a college sophomore as the best arm in the best college baseball conference and a possible top 1-5 pick in the draft it means they're seeing things they see in the best of the best arms.

There's also a difference between minor league production and major league projection. You can look at minor league leader boards and see a bunch of dudes with really nice minor league production who will never reach the majors, let alone succeed there. How you get to your production matters.

As an example, Matt Wallner is a oft debated guy around here because he has some nice minor league production, and has debuted in the majors. But he's not loved by national prospect rankings because he really struggles to hit (and maybe recognize?) off speed pitches in the minors. He's gotten to his production by absolutely destroying fastballs, and laying off enough breaking balls to survive. You can do that in the minors because many of the pitchers can't control their breaking stuff well enough to make you pay. Guys in the majors can.

A pitching example would be Kohl Stewart. Had really nice minor league numbers in terms of runs allowed stats, but wasn't striking anyone out. Guys thought it was weird early cuz he had good "stuff," and that he'd eventually start getting the Ks. As he progressed the Ks never came and he started falling down ranking boards. His runs allowed numbers never got terrible in the minors, but he struggled in the majors because when you can't K guys you rely on weak contact to get outs. Guys in the majors have weak contact far less than guys in the minors (it's why they're in the majors). So when he couldn't get the ball by guys they were hitting it much harder and his runs allowed stats tanked.

If you ever get the chance to talk with a major league scout it's absolutely fascinating to listen to what they look for and how they think. I highly suggest it. They're crazy smart folks when it comes to watching baseball players.

Good post. I'll also add that Blast Motion and Rapsodo have allowed scouts to crosscheck their in-person observations with solid data. They don't have to put a 50 or 55 number on a breaking ball, they can measure how much it spins, how much it breaks and how well it gets located. They don't need to rely as much on in-game results because they have the raw performance data. The raw performance data is probably more reliable than watching a couple games here and there.

33 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Correct, Arraez was a high average player with no speed, no position and no power. So he slowly moved up the lists when he showed he could hit pitching at any level, I don't think they prospect rankings got him wrong, that type of player doesn't project to be an all star type player, He has proved them wrong but I would still not bet on players like that going forward.

Arraez hit his 95th percentile projection. You obviously don't want to bet that everyone will do that.

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Agreed. Those looking for next year are very likely to be disappointed. 

seriously. Once they've assessed his health against being back throwing full-time on the mound and built up his arm, he could advance quickly, but 2025 is a much more likely arrival date, and that's without significant setbacks.

The odd thing about him is, I'm not worried about the TJ. He's young and medical science has developed so much over the past couple of decades...and still is...that I believe the STUFF that made him such an in demand recruit and top draft prospect, (did anyone not rank him as a 1st rounder pre-draft?), will still be there. Yes, he'll need to work on getting his control back and still working on his change, just like any young pitcher. But recovery of his arm from surgery isn't what really concerns me.

What I worry about is the layoff and getting in 100 innings this year, even if it's a combined Extended ST and A ball regular game action. He gets in 100 IP and something else doesn't go "pop" from the almost 2 year layoff, I'm going to feel really good about his future prospects and reaching his potential. 

I think he's already got a good floor.

I have my doubts this dude will ever throw a pitch for the big club. I don't think his standing is too high or anything, I just get the bad luck vibe from him and his situation. This is the sort of vibe I hope I'm totally wrong about. 

He also reminds me of the jock character in a high school drama who antagonizes the lead until the third act reversal and becomes the best friend in the sequel. 

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

The odd thing about him is, I'm not worried about the TJ. He's young and medical science has developed so much over the past couple of decades...and still is...that I believe the STUFF that made him such an in demand recruit and top draft prospect, (did anyone not rank him as a 1st rounder pre-draft?), will still be there. Yes, he'll need to work on getting his control back and still working on his change, just like any young pitcher. But recovery of his arm from surgery isn't what really concerns me.

What I worry about is the layoff and getting in 100 innings this year, even if it's a combined Extended ST and A ball regular game action. He gets in 100 IP and something else doesn't go "pop" from the almost 2 year layoff, I'm going to feel really good about his future prospects and reaching his potential. 

I think he's already got a good floor.

 

Yeah MLB.com had him around 25 on their list so late 1st round. He was hard to evaluate in his draft year for the same concerns being brought up on the board.  He just hadn't pitched competitively in a long time so with less of a track record you take on more risk.  Teams let him slide until the Twins grabbed him.

I think Horton had been injured as well (rated 24) but pitched well down the stretch and the Cubs grabbed him at number 7.  He was more of a power pitcher with a plus fastball and three pretty legit pitches IIRC.  I think the concern on Prielipp beyond not throwing competitively was teams hadn't seen a big time fastball and that he might only be a two pitch pitcher so possibly more likely a reliever than starter.  

With so little track record it is impossible to know how this goes but we should have a better idea at the end of this year. He was elite his first year in a tough conference so he has the stuff IMO but like with most of these guys can the arm hold up to starting?  We will see.

3 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Completely agree. We for sure will have someone (probably a couple, if not several) who will “hit” among our list to-date. That always happens.

My point was more that here we are through #7 and no one yet seems like a sure bet to be a regular starter.  Someone who we could look at and say “yep, that guy is pretty much a can’t miss major leaguer”. If I had to choose one up to now, I’d probably pick Varland.  

This is not a retort, but more an acknowledgment of your point.

Sure bets, even in a Top 10 list, aren't sure bets, right? Confession: I'm eternally optimistic. It's my Kryptonite or my super power, depending on one's POV. But my optimism about a continued flow of "regular starters" Is backed up by history.

Recent history: Out of Fangraph's top 11 prospects on their Twins list for 2022, 8 of them made the show, and 4 of them are already regular starters: Ryan, Duran, Miranda, and Lewis upon return. The other 4 still have a chance (Winder, SWR, Henriquez, Wallner). As do the other 3 in FG's top 11, Canterino, Martin, and Balazovic. Plus, further down their list, the system produced Varland, Moran, and Sands last year. Who knows with them at this point?

But to your point about "sure bets" outside of this year's TD #7-30? My bets are on (in this order) E. Rodriguez, Mercedes, Noah Miller, Raya, and Festa. So, that's not a bad list IMO, and it's missing Lee, Prielipp, and Jose Salas. So yeah, we don't know, as fans, who the sure bets are gonna be, but just because we don't know doesn't change the reality that we're gonna see a decent number of them become major leaguers. Like I said, I'm optimistic.

39 minutes ago, bird said:

 

This is not a retort, but more an acknowledgment of your point.

Sure bets, even in a Top 10 list, aren't sure bets, right? Confession: I'm eternally optimistic. It's my Kryptonite or my super power, depending on one's POV. But my optimism about a continued flow of "regular starters" Is backed up by history.

Recent history: Out of Fangraph's top 11 prospects on their Twins list for 2022, 8 of them made the show, and 4 of them are already regular starters: Ryan, Duran, Miranda, and Lewis upon return. The other 4 still have a chance (Winder, SWR, Henriquez, Wallner). As do the other 3 in FG's top 11, Canterino, Martin, and Balazovic. Plus, further down their list, the system produced Varland, Moran, and Sands last year. Who knows with them at this point?

But to your point about "sure bets" outside of this year's TD #7-30? My bets are on (in this order) E. Rodriguez, Mercedes, Noah Miller, Raya, and Festa. So, that's not a bad list IMO, and it's missing Lee, Prielipp, and Jose Salas. So yeah, we don't know, as fans, who the sure bets are gonna be, but just because we don't know doesn't change the reality that we're gonna see a decent number of them become major leaguers. Like I said, I'm optimistic.

First let me say I love your optimism and it certainly beats pessimism.  When I first found TD I didn't really know how to follow prospects and I dreamed that pretty much every prospect in the top 30 was going to make it.  It took a while but reality eventually settles in.  Most of these guys don't make it. Some get too injured to keep going, some hang onto the fringes of rosters but eventually bite the dust and then yes some make it as OK to average players and a few make it as Stars or super stars.  Here is a good little article that gives a few stats on top 100 players.  Below is a screen shot of the Twins top 10 prospects in 2018.

There were times we were talking about Romero and Gonsalves being mid rotation starters.  Javier as the Twins Shortstop of the future. Rooker and Diaz as light tower power bats looking to bat cleanup at the MLB level.  As you can see all of these players are still out their on the fringes but the outlook is grim.

Lewis has yet to play a full heathy season since 2019. Gordon isn't considered a starter yet but is a super utility player.  Kirilloff hasn't been healthy in several years now.  Graterol was traded and is a good reliever but I don't know about great.  Enlow isn't even on the 40 man anymore.

There is still some hope left in this list especially Lewis but most of these players just were not the difference makers we all hoped they would be.  To me that is the reality of prospects.  It is really, really hard to become an MLB player. Those that do are special IMO.  Still given my fairly brief glimpse into the prospect world hope and reality can collide quickly and the outcome generally is another player that didn't make it.  

Still it is fun to dream on these guys and how they might help the Twins. It is why we come to TD to talk about and share what we think players might become.  Still the element of reality is far to few work out the way we hoped.

FWIW Arraez was ranked 23rd on this list.

I think the ranking is about right, being that these are prospects and are supposed to be based on potential. The kid was a great get for Twins where they got him as many had him rated extremely high before surgery. I think some teams made a mistake letting him slide as far as he did, many kids have Tommy John surgery and are fine. I think its better to get it out of the way early if it's going to happen so he can recover while he's young. Here's hoping we can actually develope the Ace we all crave for the team.

I have no problem with him being ranked #7, or even #4, or #15 or #25. What I like is the team took the gamble, jumped out there and grabbed him because he was available and had a high pre-draft projection. Over the years we've drafted plenty of middle relievers, utility infielders or 4th outfielders. Let alone all the picks that never made it to the pros for a cup of coffee. I would rather the team took the high upside gamble and failed,  then took the sure bet whose upside will fill a reserve role on the roster.

Its all right if we like our players better than other projection services, but we should like them as least as well as those other services.  Personally I like the thought that he could be an ace, better than the thought that he could be an oft injured middle inning reliever.

How would Prielipp compare to the lefty the Twins traded for Mahle, Steve Hajjar?

45 minutes ago, Monkeypaws said:

How would Prielipp compare to the lefty the Twins traded for Mahle, Steve Hajjar?

Fangraphs put Hajjar as the Reds 28th best prospect and a 40 FV. I'm going to guess Prielipp gets a 50 FV tag. They don't really compare. Cade Povich got a 45 FV, he's closer to Prielipp.

Cincinnati Reds Top 46 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

The prospect lists are just for fun. Those who can read The Athletic will sift through Law's list of the Twins coming stars.

Guys like Joe Mauer, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Royce Lewis to name a few were highly ranked in these lists of Twins prospects No reason to get anxious or judgmental. It is an entertaining process and many of us look forward to reading what different people have to say. The Sporting News was pretty thin on the minor leagues and I can testify, as an original subscriber, that Baseball America was/is a good read and totally amped up the coverage of prospects as well as the minor leagues. 

Keep up the good work; it's great stuff.

2 hours ago, gman said:

I have no problem with him being ranked #7, or even #4, or #15 or #25. What I like is the team took the gamble, jumped out there and grabbed him because he was available and had a high pre-draft projection. Over the years we've drafted plenty of middle relievers, utility infielders or 4th outfielders. Let alone all the picks that never made it to the pros for a cup of coffee. I would rather the team took the high upside gamble and failed,  then took the sure bet whose upside will fill a reserve role on the roster.

Its all right if we like our players better than other projection services, but we should like them as least as well as those other services.  Personally I like the thought that he could be an ace, better than the thought that he could be an oft injured middle inning reliever.

I've been following the Twins milb system since the late 70's as a kid...best I could way before the internet...from snipets in the Trib, The Sporting News, Baseball Digest, and from a Twins paper that existed briefly in the mid to late 80's who's name I can't recall. 

There was a time in the 80's when the Twins had a collection of about 7 young arms in their top 10, all relatively high draft choices, and only one, Willie Banks, ever did much of anything. So you just never know.

But I agree that sometimes the best choice is not the "safe" pick but the high upside selection. I was stoked when the Twins picked Canterino a few years ago. Unfortunately, even with a good surgery and a successful rehab, he might be destined for the pen to maximize his potential. And who knows, he might be outstanding for many years in that role, and that's still a positive. (I might still keep him in the rotation at first as a possible late arriving but still potentially good rotation arm).

So there is no guarantee that Prielipp will turn out to be a really good ML SP, much less ACE caliber. But I love taking the shot at an arm that talented and the possible projection.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/2/24/2821479/minor-league-ball-baseball-top-120-prospects-for-2012

2012 minor league ball top 120. Nowhere on that list do you see Brian Dozier’s name. He debuted that year for the Twins. Put up 20 some bwar.  Somewhere in the 30s is Sano.  I think he is still in the single digits.  Just a reminder of rankings don’t always mean much.

On that list you will also find Lindor’s name pretty high up there at the time of the ranking he had 20PA and a .666 OPS. Just a reminder the guess on talent are actually right

4 hours ago, Dman said:

First let me say I love your optimism and it certainly beats pessimism.  When I first found TD I didn't really know how to follow prospects and I dreamed that pretty much every prospect in the top 30 was going to make it.  It took a while but reality eventually settles in.  Most of these guys don't make it. Some get too injured to keep going, some hang onto the fringes of rosters but eventually bite the dust and then yes some make it as OK to average players and a few make it as Stars or super stars.  Here is a good little article that gives a few stats on top 100 players.  Below is a screen shot of the Twins top 10 prospects in 2018.

There were times we were talking about Romero and Gonsalves being mid rotation starters.  Javier as the Twins Shortstop of the future. Rooker and Diaz as light tower power bats looking to bat cleanup at the MLB level.  As you can see all of these players are still out their on the fringes but the outlook is grim.

Lewis has yet to play a full heathy season since 2019. Gordon isn't considered a starter yet but is a super utility player.  Kirilloff hasn't been healthy in several years now.  Graterol was traded and is a good reliever but I don't know about great.  Enlow isn't even on the 40 man anymore.

There is still some hope left in this list especially Lewis but most of these players just were not the difference makers we all hoped they would be.  To me that is the reality of prospects.  It is really, really hard to become an MLB player. Those that do are special IMO.  Still given my fairly brief glimpse into the prospect world hope and reality can collide quickly and the outcome generally is another player that didn't make it.  

Still it is fun to dream on these guys and how they might help the Twins. It is why we come to TD to talk about and share what we think players might become.  Still the element of reality is far to few work out the way we hoped.

FWIW Arraez was ranked 23rd on this list.

 

 

Yet 22 on the list did make it to the majors

33 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Yet 22 on the list did make it to the majors

Yes and despite all his flaws that evaluators talked about he became the American League batting Champion.  Just an amazing bat and eye for contact.  He will be missed by all the fans who enjoyed what he brought to the team.

As others have said these lists are just somewhat educated guess's and hopeful projection.  A good number of top 100 players do make a difference but a lot of guys that were somewhat written off for one reason or another impact teams as well.  It is an inexact science but I still love following the players and hope everyone of them finds a way to get to the majors.  Unfortunately I have seen more of them not make it than make it.

I'm having Alex Meyer flashbacks.

Let's hope it works out for him.

20 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yes and despite all his flaws that evaluators talked about he became the American League batting Champion.  Just an amazing bat and eye for contact.  He will be missed by all the fans who enjoyed what he brought to the team.

As others have said these lists are just somewhat educated guess's and hopeful projection.  A good number of top 100 players do make a difference but a lot of guys that were somewhat written off for one reason or another impact teams as well.  It is an inexact science but I still love following the players and hope everyone of them finds a way to get to the majors.  Unfortunately I have seen more of them not make it than make it.

Including DSL there are about 180 players in a system. They all start as prospects