Twins Daily 2023 Top Prospects: #7 Connor Prielipp, LHP

I have bought into the hype!  Loved getting him where we did in the draft!  Can't wait to see some minor league box scores for him!

So far he Prielipp is living on past results.  He has looked elite in the past but we have no idea what his arm can take at this point.  I am hoping that the Twins found a top of the rotation lefty with tons of bat missing stuff.  Still he could just be a two pitch pticher that ends up in the pen.  We should know more after his first year but it will likely take up to his second year to know if the gamble paid off.

If the arm holds up I have to believe he can be a difference maker but will have to wait and see.  I liked the pick when they made it and still like it now.  I believe he will be back just have to wait and see how it all plays out.

He needs to get innings in this year (and be real good) and then fly though the system next year so that he is knocking on the door of the majors late next year or early 25, otherwise he just turns into another25 year old pitching prospects that nobody feels comfortable giving a starting job to. (He could be one of those rate pitchers that really take off in their mid to late 20's because of how little he actually has pitched, but again that is very, very rare)

Good luck to him!

I get the hype & the Twins desperate need for a in house, front-line SP. But until he actually takes the pro mound & produce, I wouldn't rank him this high.

If he is more than just hype, he should be in the big show mid 2024 or penciled in starting in 2025. He will still only be 24 yrs old with a fresh arm.  What a great draft pick!!

Boy, lots of “ifs” in these rankings up to this point.  I’m beginning to understand why the ranking entities don’t love our prospect list all that much relative to other team’s. Do we have at least one sure fire, above average, every day starter major leaguer up to this point yet? 

So, Connor projects as an ace, a solid starter, a reliever, or a bust. Sounds like a lot of others - except for the “ace” part, which we really do not have anywhere in the system. Therefore, that increases his overall probability weighted ROI by a lot. But the lack of IPs means the range of outcomes is very high too.

Let’s see what have at the end of the year. But, I for one love that we have someone with true ace, difference making upside in our system - that is worth the risk and merits the current ranking..

I can't see it.  After he pitches this year I will have something to hope for, but video games, like fantasy, just don't translate to the real world.  I am delighted he has so much potential, but this is the top ten of our prospects and so far it is not giving me lots of hope.  The last ones on the list I am not even speculating on - obviously Lee and Rodriguez and I would assume Lewis is still a prospect - I guess reading TD hasn't filled in the last three names for me so I will be curious.  
 

I do think this is a fun exercise and allows for debate.  

I know I sound like the Grinch after questioning where Salas was placed (Law has him 5 in his ratings, and Gleeman 8-12 in his ratings), but I have to make the same argument here.  This rating is based only on potential and comes after a major surgery.  I LOVE this kid's potential, but boy there is zero track record.  Still, I hope and expect he will do well.

65 innings would be kid gloves! If he has healed correctly and built his arm strength back to what it was, 100 innings should be the goal.  Watched him pitch some games in HS, he was a man amongst boys. Now he needs to show it in the pros

Law has Prielipp at #8. Looking forward to seeing how he does this year, that's for sure.

Well, #7 is lucky which may mean that Connor Prielipp is our best prospect.

For a college arm he is about as much of a wild card you can get.  We have little to nothing to judge him on other than SSS and high school.  I am not hyped on him until I see something.  Many top college arms full fizzle out quickly in pro ball, but then there are the diamond in the roughs that come up.  He is neither so lets just wait and see, hopefully he can become a valued starter, or at worst a lefty out of the pen. 

How does a player who hasn't pitched to a single professional batter, and has as you note pitched just 28 innings over seven starts in the last three years, possibly register in the top ten? I'm very, very confused.

Project-ability in dicey for any organization, but for the Twins it's practically a prospect death sentence. If he seemed work the risk, fine, but this FO doesn't have much to show for its pitching gambles and the fact that injuries are the defining aspect of his career so far doesn't inspire confidence that we'll ever see him on the mound at Target Field.

Here's hoping they know what they're doing in helping his recover and develop. But it also makes me wonder where Chase Petty would have placed.

Desperate Twins fans clutching at straws. What's next, junior high pitchers from Kalamazoo?

I think someone has complained in every thread that each prospect rates too high. They can't all rate too high.

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Boy, lots of “ifs” in these rankings up to this point.  I’m beginning to understand why the ranking entities don’t love our prospect list all that much relative to other team’s. Do we have at least one sure fire, above average, every day starter major leaguer up to this point yet? 

So, Connor projects as an ace, a solid starter, a reliever, or a bust. Sounds like a lot of others - except for the “ace” part, which we really do not have anywhere in the system. Therefore, that increases his overall probability weighted ROI by a lot. But the lack of IPs means the range of outcomes is very high too.

Let’s see what have at the end of the year. But, I for one love that we have someone with true ace, difference making upside in our system - that is worth the risk and merits the current ranking..

Outside of the top 20 rankings are a guess. The players will be ifs. A successful team is not going to have the number of high end draft picks these ranking system loves. Thus a system will be lower. That does not mean a system that is low in talent. The Arraez types do not show up on these lists. 

29 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think someone has complained in every thread that each prospect rates too high. They can't all rate too high.

I think someone has complained in evert thread. That is what a lot of people do

TNSTAAPP

For me, it's a fool's game to say much more than that cliche acronym on Prielipp.  Wait and see approach on this one.

Kohl Stewart, ya fooled me once.

Tyler Jay, ya fooled me twice.

I won't be fooled again!

I thought this was a really smart draft pick. there's definitely risk attached here, but the upside is immense and when you nail a sure thing with your first round pick there's room to add some risk/reward with your second rounder. I expect he'll spend several weeks at the complex in Ft. Myers, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him moved over to A-ball (which is conveniently in ft. Myers as well). they'll watch his innings carefully, but he's an exciting pitcher with serious upside.

he might not come back all the way from injury, he might be a guy who gets hurt a lot and never lives into the talent. but there's no guarantee that will happen. It's just one risk factor, and weighed against his potential, I think it's a great pick and when you consider the ceiling he makes a lot of sense here.

Let's just hope his injury history is behind him or he could wind up in the pen like Duran. I will be interested to see how he performs this year but only time will tell. For now, he's a hype pitcher. Maybe by the end of this year he will be projectable ..

I don't have a clue what the future holds for Prielipp.

But I continue to ask/wonder why the Twins can't have one of their picks shock the world.  You know, like the Acuna kid in Atlanta who became a star at 20 years old.  Or like Chris Sale, who was pitching for the Sox the year after being drafted.

So I ask, why can't Prielipp be that special player?  Why can't he rocket thru the organization to the Twins?  Granted, coming off TJ it is unlikely he makes it this year.  But can he make it to AA and pitch for the Twins in early 2024?  

Why can't the Twins have that young star like so many others?  And yes, it could be Prielipp.

31 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Outside of the top 20 rankings are a guess. The players will be ifs. A successful team is not going to have the number of high end draft picks these ranking system loves. Thus a system will be lower. That does not mean a system that is low in talent. The Arraez types do not show up on these lists. 

Completely agree. We for sure will have someone (probably a couple, if not several) who will “hit” among our list to-date. That always happens.

My point was more that here we are through #7 and no one yet seems like a sure bet to be a regular starter.  Someone who we could look at and say “yep, that guy is pretty much a can’t miss major leaguer”. If I had to choose one up to now, I’d probably pick Varland.  

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It's still the offseason so hope is still flowing steadily for me. I'm a little greedy and am hoping Lee debuts this year and Prielipp in 2024. Why not have 2 guys who had a chance to be top 5 picks in 2022 both bust out quickly and take this franchise to another level?

You’re not being greedy - that’s being realistic. Lee sometime this year and Prielipp in late ‘24 should be the schedule, right? But I get the sentiment, haha.