Twins Can Spend Themselves Into Uncharted Territory

I am hoping more for the 160 -170 range including landing either Cole or Strasburg (I much prefer Cole).

As I mentioned on another post, part of that $70mm everyone is talking about will be used to extend several young players.  Shouldn't be a huge part, but I see them spending $5-$10mm extra on extensions to several of Berrios, Buxton, Rosario, Sano and one or two of their young relievers.

Is also true that they could spend $70mm on new players, then go a step further to extend a couple of those guys.  My biggest concern is that they get at least two of the four mentioned above inked to extensions similar in length to Polanco and Kepler.  Love the chemistry of these young guys, lets keep them together long-term. 

Remember "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain"? How about "Cole, Berrios and Odo and pray for snow". 

Hyun-jin Ryu would be a nice get considering we wouldn't have to give up a draft pick, if we can pry him away from the Dodgers. Cole Hamels didn't get a QO either. Those two to go with one of Cole, Strasburg, or Wheeler, if you gonna lose a draft pick, do it on one of these three.

I think Bumgarner might get caught up in the same situation as Keuchel and Kimbrel last off season. Maybe teams think better of him but giving up a pick is going to hurt his stock, along with considering his age and diminishing talent. I wonder who will be free agents until after the draft this year.

I can't see them adding $70mil per year to the starting rotation for any length of time. They have Berrios still who will probably command $15-20mil soon. Not to mention the starting lineup, bench and relief staff.

Right now is the Twins' Perfect Storm Opportunity.  Attendance at Target Field jumped to nearly 2.3M, up from 1.96M in 2018, with an average ticket cost of $37.80.  Tag on an extra $10/person between concessions and merch (which is probably low), and the Twins brought in $109.6M from their 81 home games last year.  The Twins FSN deal runs 4 more years (through 2023) at around $40M a year, which means last year, the Twins already had almost $150M in revenue before any ads, radio rights, or MLB funds were distributed.

Now is the time for the Twins to make their move, shed the reputation of not spending, and the rewards they can reap will be massive.  Imagine if the Twins can move their average attendance from just over 28k a game to 35k a game.  Imagine if the average spend per attendee moves to $55 instead of $48.  Target Field would now be worth $156M all on it's own.  Now imagine the increased ratings FSN gets with the increased interest, and perhaps the next contract puts the Twins in the Billion club for local broadcast--the Cardinals current deal could be a template (as a team in a smaller market than the Twin Cities, but probably more popular in the St Louis market), which is 15 years and $1B.  Thats another $67M in annual revenue, putting the Twins at $223M before radio, marketing, revenue distribution from MLB, or home playoff games (with the likelihood of full stadiums and dramatically increased ticket prices--say an average spend of $160 between tickets, concessions, and merch--a home playoff game is worth $5M to $6M easily), the Twins could definitely get to $300M in revenue annually.

How do the Twins achieve these growth numbers?  Exceed the 50% of revenue on payroll rule, and do what it takes to sign both Cole and Rendon this winter.  Offer Rendon 7 years and $225M, and Cole 7 years and $250M.  Give them both opt outs after 5 years to sweeten the incentive to come to Minnesota; this will accomplish a number of things.

1. Fans will go insane.  When the Phillies signed Bryce Harper, they sold 100k extra tickets.  The reaction from Twins fans will assuredly exceed that.  That reaction is what the Twins would be counting on to drive the increased revenue numbers I detailed above.
2. It makes extreme baseball sense from the pitching side.  A top 3 rotation of Cole, Berrios, and Odo can compete in the playoffs.  If Graterol takes off, look out.  Plus, with all the prospects still in the minors, the Twins could easily flip some combination of Lewis, Kiriloff, Larnach, Balazovic, Gordon, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Duran, or Alcala and still be able to trade for a 4th starter--say Lewis, Balazovic, and Alcala for Syndergaard?
3. It makes extreme baseball sense from the lineup side too.  If MLB truly does "de-juice" the baseball, this Twins team could use some extra OBP.  Imagine a line-up of Arraez, Rendon, Cruz, Kepler, Sano, Garver, Polanco, Rosario, and Buxton (ideally, the Twins would trade Rosario, and let Cave/Wade play until Kiriloff or Larnach is ready).  That is a deadly lineup, not to mention moving Sano to first vastly improves your infield defense, while barely downgrading your defense at first.
4. The cost actually isn't even that bad.  In this scenario, the Twins free up anything they would have to pay Cron (MLBTR projects $7.7M).  Clear Rosario's projected $8.9M, and you're already more than a quarter of the way to Rendon and Cole's contracts--$16.6M out of $68M.  The Twins would be at $142M in payroll, while still needing to pay Arraez, Cave, Wade, a backup catcher, 3 to 4 guys in the bullpen, and 2 starters.  All of that should be doable for $20M, unless you are trading for a 4th starter/bringing back Pineda.  While that might make extensions more difficult, you also free up $21M next year with Cruz and Marwin off the books; the Twins could decide to lock in Buxton and Sano this offseason for $20M a year between the two of them for sure if they really wanted, and still not go too much past $160M.

Will the dream of Cole/Rendon happen?  I'm sure it won't.  But if the Twins want to change everything, it is a completely feasible way to do it.

Even if the team didn't want to push payroll, I'd rather have Cole, and Cole only than three or four lower tiered free agents.

 

That said, I agree with Ted that both Cole and Strasburg are most likely to prefer the "more exciting destinations in play". If the Twins can't get either of them, I don't really know where to go from there because while Bumgarner, Wheeler or Hamels look like shiny new toys now, they look pretty rusty when standing next to the top of the rotation of most other contenders. Odorizzi's in the same boat as well.

 

I'm sure the team is going to get a free agent starter, probably a decent one too, but they're almost certainly going to have to get their big prize via trade if they are truly looking to make an upgrade to the front of the rotation.

I don't quite get the idea of wanting to play where you want to live being a huge factor.  Every player spends the entire month of March away from "home".  From April through September, every player will spend at minimum 81 out of 183 total days away from home, and that's only if there are no off days during the middle of road trips, and the player doesn't make the all-star team.  In reality, it can be safely assumed that every player will spend at most half of the season at home, and in some cases, that's only 3-6 days at a time.  Those are also the 6 months where the weather is quite nice almost everywhere.  Put it another way--if someone doesn't want to spend winters in Minnesota, they can still play for the Twins, and have a very low chance of ever having to see snow, since they can spend November through February wherever they want, and March in Fort Myers.

The thing is the Twins have enough free capital that either of those players could be landed, with a handful of others, and still come in around $140MM

Definitely.  Per my above post, the Twins could decide to skip Rendon, and do BOTH Cole and Strasburg, and still be around $160M.  Long story short, there is absolutely no reason for the Twins to not offer $30M per year to at least one of Cole, Strasburg, and Rendon.

Plan by Me ...  

Strasburg... going to be tough to get ... likely 6 years 30 mil per....need that Ace and he is that. Professional, doesn't get rattled. Health risk a bit but think he is the guy...

Odo ..... 17 mil 3 years..... should be good as he has stated he likes it here... 

Pineda.... showed he is back... owes us... should be fairly reasonable... 2 years at 11 mil is what some have stated...

the Three would cost at these rates 58 mil to the payroll... not cheap but do believe it puts us in a good spot. Would love to see if we could get Mad Bum instead of either ODO or Pineada but ....

I am hoping more for the 160 -170 range including landing either Cole or Strasburg (I much prefer Cole).

Looking back at several Forbes reports, the Twins operating expenses other than player salaries appears to be almost $100M. 170M + payroll taxes is 189.5M for a total in the high 280s. The Twins had 2018 revenue of 269M.  https://www.statista.com/statistics/193645/revenue-of-major-league-baseball-teams-in-2010/

2019 attendance increased by around 340,000 and I am sure they did better on products. Just a guess but revenue should be up by 10-12M. Lets call it $280M. Other teams are averaging over 10% to the bottom line but let's assume they are willing to accept 10%. That would leave max payroll around $152 assuming my makeshift estimate of operating expense is fairly accurate. That would allow for a little over $70M in additional spending even if they keep Cron and Rosario.

We are in the best position we have been in a long time given some of the biggest spending teams are cutting back or unwilling to go over the luxury tax. Cole is still a long shot but we should be able to attract and afford some very good talent.

If I was the Pohlads I would be thinking... spending more money makes it look like we are trying.  Looking that we are trying + a winning record = more customers (wwhich will repay us the extra # spent.)

on the other hand...

Paying less $$$ makes us look cheap and that we don't care about winning. Which means that even if we have a winning record we will NOT greatly increase attendance which means that not only won't win but we will also decrease the value of the Twins.

This means the Twins better have a better payroll than 2019 or the Twins fanbase will totally turn on ownership.  The proof will be in the attendance figures. 

I believe the years in the OP are incorrect, unless time has simply blurred my memory. Should be approximately $130M in 2018 coming off the WC '17 season and a downward move to $114 for 2019. Correct?

Regardless, the numbers remain the same.

IMHO, the FO/ownership ponied up that $130M coming off the '17 season with some smart moves that simply didn't work out due to many factors. They took a step back in payroll for 2019, but took major steps forward in everything from a new manager and staff to tweaks in the milb system, to even smarter signings, promotions, etc. Publicly, they stated they were looking for the team to take a step forward in certain areas to open their competitive window, and even used Sano and Buxton as examples. They stated they would show additional aggressiveness if they felt the move forward and improvement took place.

Well, it did and has.

They have now, publicly, stated they are looking to add difference makers, especially in regard to pitching, to move this team forward. While I think it is foolish to simply come up with an arbitrary number and just say "this is where they should be in 2020", I think it's very fair to expect a raise in payroll going in to next season. Why do I say it's foolish to pick an arbitrary number? Very simply, despite taking a step back in payroll last season, even while making additions to the team, the biggest reason for improvement was health and the progress of the core talent on hand.

Even if $130M is a mythical target to hit, there is still vast amount of payroll to keep this team intact, as well as add pitching. Let's assume for a moment that Odorizzi is indeed back, which most expect to be the case whether via the QO or a longer term deal. Let us also assume Pineda is back, which would logical based on production/results and both parties trumpeting they'd be interested. Of course, there are a few other possibilities to replace Pineda, but financially they'd be comparable. While 1B and backup catcher not to mention the possible addition of a RP need to be looked at, the Twins would still have almost $40M to still work with just to match the 2019 payroll.

While I am NOT saying the Twins won't/shouldn't make a run at Cole and/or Strasburg, let us just assume that their is no interest to join the Twins, or that the terms just become too crazy for the Twins to top. But what about someone like Wheeler, comparable age, quality stuff, but a step down from those two in results thus far, is brought on board. You are essentially replacing Perez and Gibson with Wheeler and a combination of Dobnak/Smeltzer/Thorpe/Graterol. I think I'd call that improvement, especially at the top. And there is still $ left over to address other needs, and/or take a smaller deal on a veteran for the 5th spot as well, deepening your options and SP depth. All while still hovering around the $114M mark of 2019.

But at this point, why wouldn't they at least target that $130M number from 2018? And I feel they will. Now you sign Wheeler, maybe sign that additional SP for depth, add another viable BP piece, keep Cron, and maybe even entice Castro back and still sit around that $130M area you were at just a season ago.

I believe the team will be setting their payroll somewhere around the $130M mark and will go up to $140M if the moves make sense. I believe they will target that area as it makes real sense, and still allows them flexibility for a couple more extensions without surpassing the ML mean of about $150M. This makes an even better team in 2020 with additions, while keeping the core in place, allows for extensions, and still keeps the overall budget fluid for the next few seasons.

I repeat, Twins did NOT get swept by the Yankees because they did not have $20+ million pitchers on the payroll. They got swept because the so-called "bombas" went missing. Even a few timely hits could have turned the tide. The entire lineup collectively froze at the plate because the opposing less than star quality pitchers had "NY" on their caps. Simple as that.

That's probably the case with the Bumgarner, Wheeler, Ervin Santana types whose offers are going to be so divergent that they need to make a life altering decision AND are on a shorter term deal.

 

But if Cole is debating a 6 year 200M offer from his preferred destination and a 6 year 210M offer from Option B, I have a hard time seeing him picking option B.

 

Saying that, maybe the Twins can swing some excellent sales pitches to make Minneapolis a preferred destination. There's got to be a lot of smooth talkers they could borrow from all those Fortune 500 companies right?

If Cole's best offer were 6/200 and we offered him 6/225, he'd be ours. It's that simple IMO. I don't think we will get him. But if we are the highest bidder, I'd bet we do.

Might not be the best investment towards the end of his deal, but I don't agree that players turn down more money very often to play somewhere they feel the weather is nicer, etc.

That's probably the case with the Bumgarner, Wheeler, Ervin Santana types whose offers are going to be so divergent that they need to make a life altering decision AND are on a shorter term deal.

 

But if Cole is debating a 6 year 200M offer from his preferred destination and a 6 year 210M offer from Option B, I have a hard time seeing him picking option B.

 

Saying that, maybe the Twins can swing some excellent sales pitches to make Minneapolis a preferred destination. There's got to be a lot of smooth talkers they could borrow from all those Fortune 500 companies right?

Sure, I get, LA winning a tiebreak over MSP all else being equal.  That's why I'm proposing the Twins do 7/$250 with an opt-out after 5.  Hell, make it after 4 if need be.  I'm not Gerrit Cole, so I can't say how much "living" in LA during the season is worth to him, but if the Angels go 7/$224 with no opt-out, I struggle to think Cole would pass on $26M/the option to re-up closer to his prime, rather than after it, if at all.

Although I'd be cautious about trading with the Astros given our recent history, I think this would be a good time to see what they want for Greinke. They probably don't want much, and would prefer to use their resources to keep Cole. Greinke looks better and better as his contract gets shorter and shorter (I wanted the Twins to get him last year or before as well). At this point, there are only two years left on his contract. I would love to have him for those two years, as we have the money to spend and the team to compete in the playoffs.

We can go off recent history and have a pretty good idea that whoever offers the most money wins the bid.

 

It was reported Manny Machado was offered 8/240 by the White Sox. They even hired his brother in law! Weirdly enough, he signed with the team that offered the most years and total money.

 

Bryce Harper turned down multiple 8-9-10 year offers from the Nationals, Cubs, and White Sox. So weird that he would end up in Philly who offered the most total money.

 

It's the off-season, so there's nothing wrong passing the time talking about where Gerrit Cole lives and goes to church. It's all a moot point if the Angels don't offer him the most money.

The very fact his last post game was NOT as a member of the Astros and was wearing a Boras corporation hat tells me a lot about him. (My opinion).

He could absolutely decide he loved his time in Houston and would love to return. And he could absolutely decide the pull of playing in CA isn't as big of a deal as playing with a chance to win for a quality club. But I think $$$$ wins out.

Pretty sure it's in his binders, somewhere...

Fourth tab, section 3.7.4, subpoint C.1.a.

Or something like that.