Twins' April Schedule Could Decide Fate of the 2023 Season

So you are saying they will have a winning first month, and that's bad?

16-13 is my guess ……….splitting hairs in April. Gonna need a couple good streaks to make the playoffs and these seldom happen in April. No reason to look at schedule for April and feel bad about things. It’s the first 18% of the year’s schedule. Our pitching depth 1-5 will pay off but it may take until July to show up as an advantage……….15 wins/month gets us to a 90 win season.

Playoff worthy?

I don't want to say it's irrelevant, but there are a lot of other things that are going to matter more than the April record. Our team health, any injuries in Chicago that expose their lack of depth, how Cleveland plays are the first three that will have more impact than a couple games either way with 85% of the schedule to play. If the Guards jump out to a 19-10 record or something then we're in a hole regardless of how we play. A collapse in Chicago could have them selling vets by the all-star break, and we could be seeing the school buses full of youngsters here by June if Correa, Grey and Buxton all hit the DL early.

The fact is we'll play KC and Detroit so many times and they probably won't be good at any point in the year. Miami and WAS and PIT and the rest of the scrubs shouldn't change a bunch over the season, but you never know when some rookie is going to burst on the scene and make one of them dangerous. Still, it's nice to have a couple cupcakes to build confidence while things are settling out, and it's nice to get the Yankees out of the way so they don't mess with momentum later in the year. But the fate of this season starts and ends in the trainer's room. 

I love that they'll play the Yankees and Astros right away in April. Let's see what they've got. If they go 0-10 in these games (let's admit it, that's highly likely), then it's time to right-size expectations. If they go 5-5 or better, then maybe it's time for me to readjust my persistent pessimism. Let's start the season already!

24 minutes ago, Cris E said:

I don't want to say it's irrelevant, but there are a lot of other things that are going to matter more than the April record. Our team health, any injuries in Chicago that expose their lack of depth, how Cleveland plays are the first three that will have more impact than a couple games either way with 85% of the schedule to play. If the Guards jump out to a 19-10 record or something then we're in a hole regardless of how we play. A collapse in Chicago could have them selling vets by the all-star break, and we could be seeing the school buses full of youngsters here by June if Correa, Grey and Buxton all hit the DL early.

The fact is we'll play KC and Detroit so many times and they probably won't be good at any point in the year. Miami and WAS and PIT and the rest of the scrubs shouldn't change a bunch over the season, but you never know when some rookie is going to burst on the scene and make one of them dangerous. Still, it's nice to have a couple cupcakes to build confidence while things are settling out, and it's nice to get the Yankees out of the way so they don't mess with momentum later in the year. But the fate of this season starts and ends in the trainer's room. 

I agree with Cris E. April and September will be won in the trainers room. If the pitching staff can make it through spring training and Buxton can hold on, the Twins have a shot.

Better to know early - particularly this season. Having said that, there is a lot of baseball to be played after April. Besides, for us it’s all about winning the division and it’s hard to see any team in the AL Central pulling away early. Let’s just play ‘em one game at a time and chat in early June.

The teams both have to play in the cold month of april so I don't want to hear this excuse as the twins hot bat's from spring training  cool off in the cold climate  ... 

Let's hope that the spring weather is in favor of baseball and the twins can jump off to a good start ....

They have a full spring training to get prepared this season  so I don't want to hear this excuse either ...

The motto of the boy scouts is always BE PREPARED  ...

Can the coaching prepare the twins players to play fundamentally sound baseball  , that is the question for winning baseball  ...

I wish we would stop with the clickbait stuff.

The Twins season will be determined by how they perform over 162 games, not any single month.

IDK, the Yanks are built for Power, and the ball doesn't travel as well in the cold.  Probably the best time of year to play them.  Stro's are too, good to see the Twins get that series out of the way early.  I think they stand a better chance in April then they do in August against both.

But we'll see how healthy the Twins are coming through ST...

Have seen lots of posts that talk about the more balanced schedule and there not being as many games against the Royales and Tigers.  But that is the same for all the teams in the Central.  So it won't have an effect on winning the Division.  Granted, it could make a difference for a wild card.

Also see talk about facing the Aces out there, Alcantara, Cole, etc.  If we are facing the Ace, there is a good chance we will also be facing the #4 or #5 guys.  With the Twins starting depth, I'll gladly put our #4, #5 and #1 up against others teams 4,5 and 1.

Like the old saying is said, "The season can't be won in April, but it can certainly be lost." Look at the 2021 Twins. That was a prime example of losing the season in April. If we can come out looking at a .500 record, I think we'll be sitting pretty good in a weak division. 

But I do think we need to look at the series against those top teams. If we can split or look at a 3-7/4-6 that will give us a really good idea of where we stand relative to some powerhouse teams. Heck, it might actually help us find where we need to improve. 

New York spent the off-season getting better by re-signing Aaron Judge and adding Carlos Rodon to pair with Gerrit Cole at the top of the rotation.

I disagree with this statement.  Re-signing Aaron Judge did not make them better as they had him last year.  The only real add in your comment is Carlos Rodon and with two series against the Yanks in April that accounts for only two games with the new add having impact.

16 minutes ago, Cody Christie said:

Those were my predictions, but they can certainly be swept in all the games versus the Astros and Yankees. That would put them under .500.

Good thing the games aren't played on paper then :)

So essentially, the Twins are going to have to beat the teams they hope to face in October, but in April? Sounds like reasonable expectations. 

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

At least they have a better chance of being healthy in April, and hopefully they can hold their own against NY and Hou.

This. They’re likely to be the healthiest they can and have all (most) hands on deck early. Seems like a good test.

I don't think that your "bad" will be that bad at all. And your "ugly" isn't going to be that bad. I feel pretty good about this team. Most of the time a game is lost in the mind before the game is even played. IMO we are a better team than NYY, I want our team come out of ST with a winning attitude, believing what they are capable of doing. HOU will be a challenge hope they'll be mentally ready as well as physically.

Go Twins!

No team is ever out of it in April, nor can they win the division in April.  I will agree starting off slow can be an issue, and it is likely they will not do well against the Astros or Yankees, as they never do, but even if they do, they will have plenty of time to right the ship. 

22 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The Athletic did a pretty nice deep dive into the new schedule last week, and the difference in strength of schedule is pretty minimal. Using last year's team records on the new schedule has the Guardians, Dodgers, White Sox, and Padres as the 4 teams with the most additional games against winning teams. The Guardians at 14, Dodgers 11, and Sox and Pads at 8 games. But the Guardians and Dodgers still rank in the top 5 easiest schedules with just a .007 increase in opponent winning percentage. The new schedule isn't nearly as dramatic as people are acting.

I think part of the reason the Al Central teams see such a switch is how bad we were last year.  We looked bad and they play us less, but I expect us to be improved not only by roster changes and natural player growth but also in improved health. So fewer games against us makes the Guardians' schedule even easier than that analysis indicates. We'll see. It's going to be a much better year to watch baseball  in MN than 2022.

2-8 in any 10 games is weird no matter who you play. HOU didn't go 6-0 against the Twins last year because they're a good team and the Twins were a bad one. It was just a fluke of baseball that they didn't wind up 2-4 in those 6 games. Two of the teams HOU had a losing record against were sub .500 teams. AND HOU went 11-10 in April on the way to 106 wins. 

And only one of those games even featured a starter from this year's rotation. That was Joe Ryan vs Verlander in JV's best start (maybe) of the year. While it's possible Winder will make a start or two, I doubt He's really being considered for a spot this year. 

The bigger point though is that April really isn't some unicorn month. Good teams can struggle in April and vice versa.  

The two AL Central teams worth noting, the Guardians and the White Sox, don't have cupcake schedules, either.

Chicago opens with a four game series in Houston, and they play 13 games against the AL East in April. They better pack a lunch if they want to be above .500 in May.

Cleveland has an easier April, but if Seattle is all that they are supposed to be, watch out. They open with 4 games in the Emerald City. Then host the Mariners for three more. Then the Yankees visit for three games. The rest of their schedule is relatively easy. What will Boston have? They end up April with four games at Fenway.

My prediction: Cleveland leads the division by two games on May Day, the Twins are in second, and Chicago is a game or two under .500.