Twins 2021 Position Analysis: Third Base

I am afraid injury prone is not affixed - it is earned and it is unfortunate.  A lot of players have had careers fall short because their bodies did not hold up.  It is not a put down, but the team does need to think about how to protect its investment. 

I loved Arraez at second - not so much at third.  But we have a weak back up to this position at all levels. 

Has underlying indicators ever scored any runs?

Donaldson's offensive prowess is the focus, but he is also a very good defensive third basemen. In he and Simmons, the Twins probably have the best defensive left side of the infield in baseball.

We are such a better team when Donaldson and is in the lineup. The Twins are a better team than 2019 when everyone is healthy. Is a baseball leaving a bat at 110mph considered "knocking on wood"?

The issue with Donaldson is his calf can act up at any time.  When on the field he is huge help, but he can miss weeks out of no where just for being him.  

Insurance for highly predictable outcomes tends to be either very expensive or impossible to purchase. Highly predictable outcomes are a hard way for insurers to make money otherwise.

Yes, I recognize that "death" is highly predictable and lots of insurers make lots of money with life insurance. However, "date of death" is not highly predictable, except as an average for large groups of people.

Many moons ago I had a brief career as an insurance salesman. The legal eagles briefed me on how many lies I could tell potential customers without going to jail, my boss briefed me continuously on how many sales I wasn't making and my first marriage turned out to be a brief affair.

I guess you could say I was a brief case.

Yes, Ashbury is correct- I should have said highly predictable outcomes for individual cases in the short term are expensive to insure. The problem of adverse selection is huge here (insurance companies wouldn't play on a level field with respect to information about risks specific to that individual), and you couldn't really build a representative pool of "players with calf injuries" or "twenty-three-year-old MLB pitchers with a good slider and Tommy John surgery" or whatever.

Insurance companies can also offload some of the risk through re-insurance, effectively sharing the policy with other firms (laying off some bets, as it were).  That also works better (or only really works) when the risks are predictable for the insurance companies, and diversified across multiple policies.

It might be better for the Twins to make some side bets on lines like the over/under that Donaldson spends X days on the injured list (or whatever it's called now).

As ugly as his .222 BA looked last year, one must learn that Batting Average is a highly inaccurate way of rating a hitter. He had a .362 wOBA and a 129 wRC+ (above average).

Yup - getting hits, the goal of every plate appearance, is soooooo overrated.

The players with the best underlying indicators tend to produce the most runs. So... yes? 

They are like the stats that show someone should have performed better than they actually did (or do).... so.... no?

Insurance, in general, is "privatized socialism." (A term that I have unofficially coined), in that we all protected from catastrophic loss, while built-in profits go to the insurance companies. A strange arrangement, to say the least.

But it works. Also, nobody is forced to buy it, except for health insurance in the US... and Worker's compensation insurance by employers, and liability insurance in North Carolina for our vehicles...and injury insurance for my child to play sports...and fire insurance for my mortgage lender...oh never mind.

I'm a little late to the party but need to comment. A key quote from the OP is: "Before 2017, when the soon-to-be-chronic issue first emerged, (his calf issues obviously), the slugger had made three straight All-Star teams and been a top 10 MVP finisher in four straight years."

Go ahead and re-read that quote.

His 2017 and 2018 seasons get largely washed out due to repeated injury dealing with his calf muscles. (To be honest, I'm not certain if it's both or one leg). It stinks, but injuries of various sorts happen. He then adopts a new training routine with the help of a specialist, from Minnesota, and has a tremendous rebound 2019 in Atlanta. Then he signs with the Twins.

Now, we all know 2020 was a bizarre season in the world of MLB. I was grateful to have baseball, even an abbreviated version, and enjoyed every moment. But we saw an odd display of career seasons, split season's of success and failure, and some downright ugly years. And I don't mean just the Twins, but all across MLB. So coming in to 2021 there is element of "I don't know" about a lot of things.

This includes Donaldson. If 2020 had somehow been normal, with a said normal ST ramping up to the regular season, does Donaldson have a healthy and great season like he had in 2019? We don't know. I'm sure he continued to work out and do what he could to be ready, but did the short ramp up affect him? If there was more time available, could he have re-habbed and been just fine after? The answer remains the same, we don't know.

Even though EVERY team was affected by 2020 in different ways, including injuries, speaking solely of the Twins, they were on a 100 win pace until a small slump had them finishing at around a 96 win finish. This despite injuries to Polanco, Arraez, Garver and others along with un-even season's. Not 100% sure I can call Donaldson's issue "chronic" at this point after 2019 and the weird season that was 2020. Does he warrant some caution and continued maintenance in regard to routine and preparation? Absolutely! But so do a large number of athletes, if not most.

IMO, 2020 is a mulligan for just about everyone who had a bad year. Look no further than FA BP addition Robles who has been a fine RP for his career until 2020. Some look away from 2020 and some focus on it.

The Twins are being smart to bring Donaldson along slowly. But they are doing the same thing most teams do with established veteran players. Get them there time, but they know at this point how to get ready.

Yes, I'm an optomist, but I also think I'm a realist. I will be surprised if "doomsayers" don't look up recipes for crow before the year is done in regard to Donaldson.

As for the depth issue, I'm focused more on the future. My gut feeling is Blankenhorn has a chance to be a decent 5 position role player with a decent bat that provides power. IF he can settle down defensively, he has a shot to be the next 3B. Were I a betting man, my money would be on Miranda 2yrs from now. I get Cavaco as a very young and athletic option who continues to grow physically and might become a great 3B option in a few years.

The dark horse, and it pains me to describe him as that, is Wander Javier. STILL only 22yr old, he is no where near the 165lb teenager listed on his milb profile. In fact, I've long thought that part of his injury situation may have been him growing in to his body. IF he can stay healthy now...and he is one of the Twins prospects hurt most by the missing 2020 season...I could absolutely see him begin to mature as a hitter and be in the 3B mix in a few years.

Almost every year, Donaldson ranks near the top of all hitters in terms of drawing walks and hitting the ball hard when he makes contact. As a result, he's been one of the most productive hitters in baseball. So it's a good sign he was continuing to do those things when on the field. 

 

These are not vague sabermetric calculations, they are measures of what he "actually did."

 

Not sure what's controversial or even debatable about this.

Are walks and hitting the ball hard "underlying stats"? Pretty in your face, and not underlying, from my perspective. I agree. Not controversial.

And not underlying.

A .222 average is not underlying, either. It is performance. 

I really look forward, and hope, for a season like 2019 from him. And not underlying, but obvious and flagrant.

Yup - getting hits, the goal of every plate appearance, is soooooo overrated.

The point of looking at OPS rather than batting average alone is that not all hits are created equal. If, say, in 500 plate appearances, you have 111 singles, you have a .222 batting average. If you have 20 HR and 20 doubles with 71 singles, you also have a .222 batting average.

Plus, what if the player with 111 singles has no walks, and the player with the HRs and doubles also walks 30 times? His batting average is the same but not his OBP or OPS.