Trade Target Tracker: RHP Tyler Mahle

Stay far away from Mahle. Shoulder issues and he is not having that great of a season. I think he is the same caliber pitcher as Ober.

I would be very reluctant to add a pitcher who has some shoulder issues. If those issues resurface, he won’t help this year which is the main reason you are looking to add him mid season. Given your suggested list of prospects to trade, completing this deal means you  effectively traded Berrios and Wallner for Mahle as Martin and SWR came over for Berrios. Plus, you are trading Martin at his lowest possible value. No thanks on this trade.  

Martin, Wallner and Richardson seem to be a high price for another Paddock type mid rotation starter with possible injury concerns. It doesn’t do much for me.

The Twins have 17 blown saves in 37 opportunities. Only three teams are worse in percentage terms (Red Sox, Cubs, Rays). I concur with the other comments above. If we're going to trade some of our better prospects, I believe, at least from a value added standpoint, the Twins would be better off targeting relief help. 

I disagree with the other posters. I think this is a potentially high upside, low downside deal once Mahle gets away from that bandbox in Cincinnati. As I've said in other posts, we need to get past our attachment to prospects and be willing to trade quality to get quality. Particularly, we need to be willing to trade bat first corner OFs and non-SS IFs. That's where our surplus is. Mahle is the guy to get if we can't get Castillo or the price for Montas is too high. I worry less about shoulder issues with a clean MRI since frankly every pitcher in MLB has shoulder issues at some point. Elbow issues are what concerns me. 

Having said that,  still think the offer is a little rich. I'm fine with Wallner and Martin, but I would like to keep SWR. How about substituting Raya or Varland for SWR? Or maybe Canterino? They are a little farther away from MLB so they fit the Reds' timeline better. Another thought is a straight up trade of Larnach for Mahle? That is an overpay by the Twins, but not if we can get a 2-3 year deal with Mahle as part of the trade or if the Reds throw in a non-40 pitching prospect or a catching prospect like Nelson. In each scenario, I think the Twins are trading form surplus for need.   

Bottom line, I think Mahle is a real target and a realistic one to boot. I hoe we get him if we don't get Castillo or Montas. 

From Baseball-Reference:

Mahle, 2022: 1.8 WAR, 3W, 7L, 4.48 ERA, 92.1 IP, 102 K, 1.300 WHIP

Ober, 2022: 0.1 WAR, 1W, 2L, 4.01 ERA, 33.2 IP, 29 K, 1.277 WHIP

Winder, 2022: 0.5 WAR, 4W, 3L, 3.77 ERA, 45.1 IP, 29 K, 1.235 WHIP

I'm not trying to say Mahle overall might not be a better pitcher than the two already in the Twins' system, but this year, Ks aside, I'd rather have Winder starting than Mahle. Ober also is in the same ballpark as Mahle.

Mahle definitely helps because adding him would move one of the others to a weak bullpen, but Mahle is a #3, and unless he both is totally healthy, and thrives on the venue change (which could NOT happen as easily as it could), adding him doesn't likely move the needle much on winning a playoff series. Certainly not to be shipping top prospects for. (Sometimes the trades you don't make...)

I'd love to see a big move involving top prospects for a #1-#2 starter (like Castillo or Montas if healthy), but otherwise, I'd like to keep our prospects for either development or offseason moves made with cooler heads at real prices. And just enjoy the recovery season by the Twins for what it is; a step in the right direction from being a bad division bottom feeder.

Trade some AAAA players or a hot Sano for some middle bullpen help, but no reliever I've seen on the market is worth a top prospect, and without a #1-#2 SP, relievers are unlikely to make a difference in the playoffs.

Although I like Montas & Castillio better, I think Mahle is more realistic. We have redundant prospects, it only makes sense to trade them to fill our needs in closer, SP and catcher. 

It's how much do we think we need. And are we going to make a big splash  If we really want to compete we need a starter, reliever , and one more hitter. That will take a lot. But we have a lot. We have had 14+ starting pitchers between majors and St.Paul this year. All of those pitchers are going to be in the majors next year if we room. Since we only need  six starters we can move some guys. We can trade martin, Richardson, balazovic ober waller steer larnach Duffy sano maybe ursela and maybe Kepler. That's enough to get Castillo , Bednar, maybe Bell or the cubs catcher.lets say it takes almost all of those guys. We would then have Bell at 1b, polanko at 2b,Correa at s.s,Miranda or arraez at 3rd. Kirloff and Buxton and garlicky in outfield. Catcher would be sanchez unless trade is made for a catcher. Let me know what you think we would need to get this done? Or will we have to back off in one or two of these positions to lesser player

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The shoulder is enough to scare me away from this trade.  Go after Castillo first.  Only think about Mahle if you get a truly great deal.  Martin, Wallner, and SWR is too much for a pitcher with a bum shoulder.  I would give one of those and another low level prospect but I doubt the Reds would be into it.

Adding a Mahle would be a move for 2023 and beyond.   I have to be honest...I feel like there are just so many issues with the current pitching staff that adding one guy isn't the solution.  I'm only interested in guys that can help this year, 2023, and maybe beyond that. 

I just looked up Austin Marin on Baseball Reference and his picture is hilarious. hahah

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=martin004aus