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Four picks after Byron Buxton became a Twin, in 2012, the Cubs drafted another athletic, alliterated high-school center fielder from the Southeast: Albert Almora, of the Miami area. Four years later, Almora scored the eventual winning run in Game 7 of the World Series, after a daring 10th-inning tag-up. It would be the apex of his uneven time with the Cubs, but hardly the only highlight. Now, after two eminently frustrating seasons, Chicago has cut ties with Almora, and the Twins should be calling his agents.
At first blush, maybe Almora seems like an odd fit for the Twins. After all, Buxton has blossomed into a star, with the defense-first, exciting profile Almora never quite managed to bring together. However, Buxton isn’t only a star in the sense that he’s a high-caliber player: he’s also the center of the outfield universe in Minnesota, and that’s a bit of a problem.
Buxton is the right-handed star, but all of the planets in the Twins’ outfield solar system bat left-handed. Cutting ties with Eddie Rosario didn’t really alter that fact. Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, LaMonte Wade, Jr., and Jake Cave all hit from the left side. Brent Rooker is a righty, but Rooker’s viability as an outfielder is still uncertain, and he’s older than your typical rookie, so he’s likely to decline quickly in that regard. The Twins need a reliable, right-hitting outfielder who can slide into that orbit.
If it were that simple, Almora wouldn’t be an especially good fit. He’s a .271/.309/.398 career hitter, and has been worse than that over the last two seasons, as he’s fallen out of the Cubs’ plans and lost touch with his offensive talent. The Twins could certainly court better hitters from the right side, such as Adam Duvall, Cameron Maybin, or Hunter Renfroe. Alas, the Twins need something else from a prospective outfield addition, too: Buxton insurance.
Whatever one thinks of Buxton’s ability when he’s on the field, his extreme injury risk has to be factored into both valuing him and building a roster of which he’s part. He’s a great player, and having him creates a high ceiling for the lineup whenever he’s in it, but if a team fails to plan for the 60-80 games a year in which he’ll be either diminished or unavailable, they forfeit the advantage that might give. Cave, Wade, and Kepler have all spent time in center field over the last two years, but without real success. Kepler was a solid center fielder until roughly 2018, but is stretched there now. Cave and Wade always look slightly out of place there.
Almora, on the other hand, is an above-average defender in center. He’s also a few months younger than both Buxton and Wade, and just six months older than Rooker. The Cubs failed to get the most out of his bat, but given his age and demonstrated talent, there’s reason to believe he could still become a league-average hitter under the tutelage of the Twins’ far superior developmental staff. Any team that signs Almora will acquire control of his rights for 2022, even if they only agree to a one-year deal, because he was non-tendered after reaching only four-plus years of service time.
Almora isn’t a burner like Buxton. He’s unlikely to develop even 20-homer power, though he hit 12 in just 363 plate appearances during an otherwise discouraging 2019. However, he has contact skills. He demonstrates stunningly good instincts when chasing fly balls at all three outfield spots. He shares Buxton’s daring style, but is better at avoiding injuries. He’s a hard-working, smart player, and a good teammate.
If the Twins want to continue to plan their outfield around Buxton, they need a way to sustain the team-wide defensive excellence he encourages, even when he’s unavailable. They also need a right-handed option to mitigate the risk that Kepler’s struggles against left-handers continue, or that Kirilloff runs into such problems as a rookie. Almora offers all of that, in better balance than any other candidate available in free agency. There might be no team better-positioned to help him rehabilitate his career.
That Almora would come cheaply (MLB Trade Rumors had only estimated his arbitration salary at $1.575 million, which the Cubs decided not to pay), and be affordable in 2022 if the experiment went well, and that he would improve the team’s leverage in any discussions of a long-term deal with Buxton, only pads the case for signing him. If some other team offers him an everyday job in center field, the Twins will lose out, but since that’s unlikely, they should stay in touch, and make Almora a priority in their positional pursuits in free agency.
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