The Minnesota Twins' 2023 Payroll Preview

I guess I'd start with is ownership willing to match this years payroll? My guess it will go down a bit with lower attendance this season and so on. But if it stays the same I'd want them to go out and get Willson Contreras, Tommy Pham and a couple of quality relief pitchers..say Fulmer and Taylor Rogers. I'd like to add a frontline starter or Aaron Judge but outside of Correa type of contract I don't see either happening. I could also say the same for them signing quality relief pitchers.

Give me one of the better catchers, a right handed hitting left fielder and a couple of quality BP arms to cover the excessive amount of innings our 5 innings and a cloud of dust pitching philosophy creates..

Add a starter if there's any payroll left. I want to believe Kenta Maeda will be a starter but I'm not convinced that will happen right away coming off TJ.

Justin Verlander returned from TJ surgery this year and all he did was win the Cy Young award.  Don't write off Maeda yet.

Hot stove talk begins, John!  It all depends on whether they really try to keep Correa.  If they do keep him, much of the 45 million is gone as I don't have any faith that the FO will allow payroll to bump up to 150 or 155 million in order to keep Correa.  So, assuming Correa is gone, I would add a good defensive catcher, preferably a left handed bat who can throw out runners as that might become a bigger part of the game next year.  I wouldn't worry about offense at that spot.  I would add a top starter, 2 good bullpen arms, and a right handed hitting corner outfielder with some defensive chops to replace Kepler whom I would trade.  I would not extend Gray or Mahle, at least until I saw if they stay healthy.  At shortstop, it all depends on Lewis and his time frame and the likelihood he comes back to 100% after his injuries.  Not knowing for sure, I would look to find a placeholder IF one can be found that is substantially better than using Urshela and Palacios in the interim.  If you add a placeholder shortstop to the roster it just eats up another roster spot if Lewis comes back, and I would not want another Simmons disaster.  Plus, the Twins currently don't have a ground ball heavy pitching staff.  IF Correa is signed, then trades become a bigger focus.  

John: Were you celebrating the Vikes win when you wrote this? A little fuzzy in the logic thinking? Jeffers is only one notch above Sano in hitting. He can't hit a cutter to save his life and the league figured that out. Back:-up at best!! And your "Nothing is required" comment is Comical!! Have you watched the Play-in games? ALL the winning teams have an ACE and strong #2's who went 7-8 innings as do the teams they will now face!! If that is not PROOF of what this team needs then nothing is!!

20 minutes ago, RJA said:

I would look to find a placeholder IF one can be found that is substantially better than using Urshela and Palacios in the interim.

If they can't find a placeholder shortstop better than Palacios they aren't looking very hard.

I think it is 100% certain Correa will opt out but there is still a good chance he returns to the Twins. Need intersects with opportunity. They will find a spot for Royce Lewis.

The article sounds like we are on the cusp of a team that will go far in the playoffs, just by tweaking a few positions.  So much relying on health/injuries.  They need an above average medical staff, one that knows how to prevent and one who knows how to rehab.  Right now, I do not see a rosy picture!

Pitching:  I don't have a lot of faith in the pitching with mostly the unknowns (mostly health related).  Additionally, they need an above average pitching coach.

Catcher:  Sanchez gave us the most games but has a .205 BA, Jeffers .208, Leon .179.  Huge hole!

DH:  Need a true high average home run hitting DH

1st: Arraez for sure!

2nd: A healthy Polanco.  Perhaps that is why his BA was .235 this season, if not another hole!

SS: If they don't resign Correa they need Lewis to come back healthy or HUGE issue.  

3rd:  Urshela should be good.

LF:  Gordon has the most games and a decent BA.  Need a backup better than Garlick and Cave if Larnach and Kiriloff don't come back healthy.  Neither of these have showed the potential we expected.

CF: A healthy Buxton who fields AND hits most games.

RF: Neither Kepler or Wallner will do!

Outfield Overall:  Only Gordon has an BA above 250.  

Money should not be an issue. Decisions will need to be made on many players. Gray, Mahle, Pagan, and Paddack could go via trades. So too could any other Twin except for Buxton (no trade clause). There is truly an opportunity to work with a (mostly) blank napkin. It may be really difficult to return value from Kepler and Polanco due to their uncertain status to close this year and I see all of Maeda, Lopez, and Thielbar returning due to their low salaries and trade value. My napkin starts with around $55 million committed to 26 roster spots. I hope John Bonnes is correct about the speculative $140 million figure. Falvey has his best opportunity yet to display his skills.

Might have waited another day for this, John.  Then we would know if Correa opted out or not.  His decision is due today, isn't it?  Or is it five days after the end of the World Series?

Assuming he does opt out, I expect the Twins will spend less next year than in 2022.  I also believe they can be a better team at that lower payroll.  But being better will depend on improved health moreso than spending more dollars.  It really can't be worse, can it?

With Correa, Sano, Sanchez, Bundy, Fulmer and Archer all gone, the Twins will have in excess of $60M to spend.  Two biggest needs for me are a real catcher and late inning reliever to replace Fulmer.  They will also need to cover shortstop the first couple months of the season until Lewis or maybe Lee fill the spot.  But that isn't going to be a high priced veteran, heck, could even be Palacios if they liked his last week of the season.

I see their starting rotation being pitchers who all were in the organization last year.  Yes, they may sign one older reclamation project, but I believe the five starters opening day will be, in some order, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan and Ober.   With Varland and SWR showing promise the last couple weeks, that staff should be very good. 

Some of the $60M will be going to raises/extensions to several players, including Arraez and at least one of the three veteran starters.  But a catcher, late inning reliever and +/- $5M to Arraez/1 pitcher ain't gonna add up to $60M.  If the 2022 payroll was $140M or so, I see 2023 being down or even under $120M.  And who knows, that team just might be a lot better than last year.

Personally, I am not a huge fan of long-term contracts for SP.  The  cost-benefit risk is so high, and the Twins are not an organization that can easily absorb dead money.  Anything longer than three-four years is too long.  There are only a handful of pitchers that could truly warrant a contract longer than that, and those pitchers most likely would not be coming to MN anyways.  I understand that may limit the Twins options, but I would offer a higher AAV (like Correa) to offset.

Kind of the same boat for RP as well.  Very few RP are consistently good year in and year out.  This may be the toughest role to predict success.  I would rather see them continue to draft the fireballers and work them up to the big club as soon as possible before spending big money on 50 IP.

To me, the biggest lineup holes they have are SS (after Correa opts out), the second catcher (to platoon with Jeffers), and another OF. 

SS - Unless you can get one of the big names on a team friendly contract, a solid 1 year placeholder until you know where things lie with Lewis.

C - Your guess as is good as mine.  I would prefer to see them get a bat-first guy here to offset Jeffers. 

OF - Kepler is basically the ideal 4th outfielder, so find another solid bat to fill his role

37 minutes ago, roger said:

 five days after the end of the World Series?

 

 

5 days after the world series 

Very few knowns and lots of unknowns at this point.  There are so many ways this club could go.

Knowns: 

Arraez, Miranda, Gordon (btw, it’s unclear what position each of those will play), Jeffers, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax, and Thielbar.  That’s pretty much it. Oh, add Rocco too (for better or worse it seems to be the case),

Unknowns:

Buxton (his true availability). 
Kepler and Larnach (availability and performance). 
Celestino and Wallner (true major leaguers?).  
Kepler and Polanco (keep or trade).  
Urshela (tender or allow to leave).  
SS (sign one of the big four or wait for Lewis/Lee).  
2nd catcher (internal options don’t seem ready/able).
DH/COF RH bat (a need, especially given Buxton’s situation).
Mahle, Paddock and Maeda (solid starters or injury write-offs).  
Other potential starters (SWR, Widner, Dobnak, etc,).
Lopez, Alcala, Megill, Fulmer, etc. (basis for a shutdown pen?).  
Budget (Pohlads’ appetite given economy and attendance trends).  
Coaching (other than the committed to Rocco) and training staffs.

Fearless Forecast:

Its a tough series of simultaneous equations to solve. But it probably starts with the SS decision. Assuming (which is likely) we don’t sign one of the big four, I’d expect an approximate $100-110MM budget year with Polanco returning, Kepler leaving, Urshela staying, internal SS (with Urshela, Gordon, Polanco, and Polacios covering the reps until Lewis or Lee show up), taking a risk on the current possible starters with one possible low cost addition (heck, maybe even Bundy) and the rest of the budget to COF/DH RH bat, C, and two/three solid relievers. It’s a strategy that is cost effective with fairly low downside, but with plenty of upside (if the starters pan out, Buxton is healthy, and some of the young core produce).



 

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

Outfield Overall:  Only Gordon has an BA above 250.  

The league batted .243 this season and that's with a full-time DH in the NL.

59 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

OF - Kepler is basically the ideal 4th outfielder, so find another solid bat to fill his role

I agree, except for his $8.5M price tag. He's worth it but the Twins aren't going to want to spend that on a backup.

Correa is as good as gone. He will opt out and the Twins are not spending $300mil+ on a single player. Personally I would rather spend that money on the best starting pitcher available (Rodón?) anyway. Shortstop can be filled internally (Gordon, Urshela, Palacios, and even Martin) until Lewis is ready. It may not look pretty, but we don't have money to waste on a stopgap if we believe in Lewis (and I do). If we are competing at the deadline and Lewis isn't ready I'm sure someone could be acquired via trade. I would like a RH corner outfielder, but maybe that could be had by giving up Larnach or Kepler via trade. 

We need a frontline catcher that catches 110+ games. $15mil

We need bullpen help. $10mil

We need an ace. $30mil 

I don't see the Twins spending more than $55mil this offseason. This is how I would spend that money if it were up to me. 

The roster is filled with talent. But as with Buxton for 8 years now, will the talent be converted to wins. Even with everyone showing up healthy next year, we have many players who still need to play to or arrive at the expected (hoped for) level of talent. If they get close to their expected talent level, I wouldn't expect them  to bust out of the starting gates, but rather a slow build of momentum with gained experience fueled by talent. I think there are many on team side who are just as frustrated by their injuries as fans are.

Yes, Correa got $35mil from the Twins, but I don't think he showed up just for the check. I think he also looked at the talent of the roster and expected the team to be able to go much further. Any team he signs with is going to have to have a roster with long term high expectations (5 + years),  as well as a big paycheck.

33 minutes ago, justinone said:

Correa is as good as gone. He will opt out and the Twins are not spending $300mil+ on a single player. Personally I would rather spend that money on the best starting pitcher available (Rodón?) anyway. Shortstop can be filled internally (Gordon, Urshela, Palacios, and even Martin) until Lewis is ready. It may not look pretty, but we don't have money to waste on a stopgap if we believe in Lewis (and I do). If we are competing at the deadline and Lewis isn't ready I'm sure someone could be acquired via trade. I would like a RH corner outfielder, but maybe that could be had by giving up Larnach or Kepler via trade. 

We need a frontline catcher that catches 110+ games. $15mil

We need bullpen help. $10mil

We need an ace. $30mil 

I don't see the Twins spending more than $55mil this offseason. This is how I would spend that money if it were up to me. 

This. 

I would only add that we probably need more than 10mil of bullpen help... perhaps at the expense of 'settling' for a durable #2 starter instead of and ACE. 

I'm feel like we would benefit from signing an above average outfielder.  Buxton often hurt, Kepler disappears on offence, Larnach is not established, Gordon admirable replacement but better as super utility.

Our current outfield is sketchy at best if we are being honest with ourselves. 

Catcher is a huge hole... no question. 

Overall, I just don't see us being in some luxury position where we have money to spend 'but very few true gaps'...... I see lots of holes.

49 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I agree, except for his $8.5M price tag. He's worth it but the Twins aren't going to want to spend that on a backup.

In a bubble, I agree.  But considering the injury risk with Buxton, along with some questions in our up-and-coming OF, the Twins 4th OF will probably play 100+ games.  I am fine with Kepler in that role next year.

43 minutes ago, justinone said:

We need a frontline catcher that catches 110+ games. $15mil

Not happening:
Only 7 catchers caught 110+ games last year.  14 caught 100.  That's it.

The league has shifted to platoon catching to keep players healthy.  No real reason to drop a payroll bomb here

3 hours ago, RJA said:

Hot stove talk begins, John!  It all depends on whether they really try to keep Correa.  If they do keep him, much of the 45 million is gone as I don't have any faith that the FO will allow payroll to bump up to 150 or 155 million in order to keep Correa.  So, assuming Correa is gone, I would add a good defensive catcher, preferably a left handed bat who can throw out runners as that might become a bigger part of the game next year.  I wouldn't worry about offense at that spot.  I would add a top starter, 2 good bullpen arms, and a right handed hitting corner outfielder with some defensive chops to replace Kepler whom I would trade.  I would not extend Gray or Mahle, at least until I saw if they stay healthy.  At shortstop, it all depends on Lewis and his time frame and the likelihood he comes back to 100% after his injuries.  Not knowing for sure, I would look to find a placeholder IF one can be found that is substantially better than using Urshela and Palacios in the interim.  If you add a placeholder shortstop to the roster it just eats up another roster spot if Lewis comes back, and I would not want another Simmons disaster.  Plus, the Twins currently don't have a ground ball heavy pitching staff.  IF Correa is signed, then trades become a bigger focus.  

I agree here with only 2 comments. First, assuming they don't re-sign Correa and think Lewis can play SS when he gets back, I am completely against signing a fill-in placeholder type to play SS. That fills a roster spot and does little for you other than slightly improve the defense over a combination of Gordon, Polanco and Palacios. Give Gordon first crack at the spot and tell him that NOW so he can work on his fielding over the winter. It's a win-win on both sides if he can be even a little below average at the spot. 

Second, I love your idea of a RH hitting corner OF and trading Kepler. I just am not a big fan of Tommy Pham at 34 years old. I might think about AJ Pollock (also 34) Trey Mancini, or Mitch Hanigar. Maybe even Martin or Prato can make the jump from AA. Otherwise, good plan.  

13 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

In a bubble, I agree.  But considering the injury risk with Buxton, along with some questions in our up-and-coming OF, the Twins 4th OF will probably play 100+ games.  I am fine with Kepler in that role next year.

I would love to see the Twins make Kepler the 4th OF and play him in CF when Buxton is out or DHs. Unfortunately, I don't think Rocco will do that. He didn't play Kepler in CF when he should have this year, and he trotted out Kepler almost every day until he was hurt even though his offense was hurting the team. He even hit Kepler in the middle of the order long after it became clear that he was at best at number 7 or 8 hitter.  I would like to see them trade Kepler because if they don't I think this FO/manager combo will play him as a regular. He just isn't a regular on a good team. Larnach, Kirilloff (if healthy), Wallner, Gordon (if not the SS), and any RH bat they can acquire should all start ahead of him. Not because we know they will be better in the case of everyone except Gordon who is better if he's the 2022 version, but because they have the potential to be better and need the shot to play. Kepler is what he is at age 30 and what he is on a good team is the 4th OF who plays CF and the corners. I just don't trust this team to play him that way so I would prefer he was traded for whatever level prospect we can get.   

#1 hole starting catching- sign Contreras or Narvaez, I'd also trade Jeffers to fill a SP hole & find a different back up.

#2 hole starting frontline SP- trade for Lopez (MIA)

#3 high end RP- sign Rogers, we know how to manage him & could do well w/ us

#4 starting SS- priority sign Correa or then a place holder for Lewis

I really like our OF- Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, Kiriloff, Gordon and Celestino with Cave, Garlic & Wallner in the wings. Gordon & Celestino have been steadily improving along with their durability will continue to be very valuable to us. I'd also include Kepler in the Lopez trade.

I'd like a LH bat to platoon at 3B, because I don't think Miranda can man it by himself. I don't think Arraez can nail that down so we'd need to bring back Urshela for another year.

If I’m the decision maker, here’s what I do:

-Kepler is moved.  Urshela is retained as a utility guy.

-Miranda gets full time 3B.  Arraez full time 1B.  Plenty of rotation going on with Urshela/DH.

-Lewis gets moved the OF.  He gets plenty of time between center and left with the Buxton/Kirillof injury issues.  Plenty of rotation going on with those two spots and DH.

-I resign Correa.

-I look into a high-payoff reclamation project type pitcher on a short deal like Clevinger, Corrasco, etc. 

-I bring in a of high-end reliever to try and establish a dominant bullpen from the jump (and not screw around with castoffs in high leverage roles).

That would probably about take care of the budget.  

49 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

#2 hole starting frontline SP- trade for Lopez (MIA)

24 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Priority #1: Trading for a top of the rotation pitcher.

I don't disagree with this option, my question is who are you willing to trade for this pitcher?

Straight up for somebody would likely take Duran, Ryan or Lee.

Otherwise it would need a combo of players most likely Ober or Winder and another top prospect. Larnach value is fairly high on the trade simulator but not high enough to get a Lopez type and would need somebody like SWR. Polanco or Arraez also probably take a Winder or Ober or highly rated prospect.

The free agent starting pitchers don't look that great either.

MLB TRADE RUMORS PREDICTS:

Twins (12)

• Gio Urshela (5.127): $9.2MM
• Emilio Pagan (5.091): $3.7MM
• Tyler Mahle (5.018): $7.2MM
• Caleb Thielbar (4.131): $2.4MM
• Jorge Lopez (4.102): $3.7MM
• Danny Coulombe (4.008): $800K
• Chris Paddack (4.000): $2.4MM
• Jake Cave (3.137): $1.2MM
• Luis Arraez (3.121): $5MM
• Cody Stashak (3.064): $800K
• Jorge Alcala (3.014): $800K
• Kyle Garlick (2.163): $1.1MM

Last season they signed Cave and paid him big bucks to play in the minors. Will they do the same with him and Garlick for 2023? Coulombe and Stashak will be interesting decisions. Both can remain good depth pieces.