Still Free: LHP Dallas Keuchel

People keep pointing to his lack of velocity as a red flag, but for a savvy veteran pitcher who can still get people out, that shouldn't  be a huge concern. I'd be more worried about a multi-year deal that ends up costing the team a bunch of money. Even a 1-year deal seems like a gamble for the sort of money he wants. What about a much cheaper option, someone like Edwin Jackson, who had a nice bounce-back year with Oakland in 2018?

I am content with what we have.  Watching Keuchel in recent years I keep thinking he is performing above his talent and that always catches up.  We have a full rotation in MLB and another full rotation in the pen and the minors waiting for a chance.  I would not do it and obviously a lot of teams are seeing what I see. 

Had a mini heart attack. Thought they signed him when the front page pulled up.

I am content with what we have.  Watching Keuchel in recent years I keep thinking he is performing above his talent and that always catches up.  We have a full rotation in MLB and another full rotation in the pen and the minors waiting for a chance.  I would not do it and obviously a lot of teams are seeing what I see. 

I thought the same about  Maddux, Moyer, Glavine Buehrle, Colon and Sabbathia and you are right.   It caught up with them and most of them are not even in the league anymore.   4 very good years out of the last 5 and in the American League is not luck.    Velocity is great but run prevention is more important than any other attribute.   He had 20 quality starts last year out of 34 games.  Berrios was 17 of 32.  Gibson was 18 of 32.   I would definitely take him over Perez.     I am ok if we pass on him but its not like the Twins have a history of saving money one year so they can spend more the next.    Bottom line is would you rather have Keuchel or not.   If you would rather have him then what else are the Twins going to do with their money?   One or two year deal is not going to ham string them.      I thought Lynn was a good move last year and many thought the same.   I don't call them mistakes just because time says they didn't work out.   It should have worked out.  Sometimes it is just on the players to perform.   Lynn not working out wasn't on the Twins.   It was on Lynn.

I'd rather see the Twins sign Kimbrell if they are going to spend more money. A bullpen with Rogers and May in high leverage situations and Kimbrell as closer would be solid. Maybe I'm biased but I hate watching close games slip away in the late innings.

I’d be ok with the twins signing him for 2 or 3 years, because I don’t think you can have too much good pitching, and Keuchel has a fairly deep history of good pitching.

I wouldn’t do a 4 year (or more) deal because I think more years equals more risk than I am comfortable with. I wouldn’t want a 1 year deal because I don’t think it makes sense to give up a draft pick for a single year of value.

I look at the construction of the Cleveland rotation as the model that I think the Twins will follow.Youger pitchers with high upside "potential" that they think they can turn into cheap bargin members of a strong rotation.

I don't see Keuchel in that category. He has already past his peak. They probably can't squeeze more out of him, if even he has a good-fair  couple of years left, and is at his earnings peak. 

I'm not a fan of giving up a draft pick for a short term deal.

We have to remember last year payroll was higher do to 50 million windfall from sale of bamtech. So we may be tapped out at this point. But I think a 3 year 51 million with option for 4th year is fine. If we can get him cheaper than do it.

The longer it takes to sign him the less Spring Training he has.

I thought the same about  Maddux, Moyer, Glavine Buehrle, Colon and Sabbathia and you are right.   It caught up with them and most of them are not even in the league anymore.   4 very good years out of the last 5 and in the American League is not luck.    Velocity is great but run prevention is more important than any other attribute.   He had 20 quality starts last year out of 34 games.  Berrios was 17 of 32.  Gibson was 18 of 32.   I would definitely take him over Perez.     I am ok if we pass on him but its not like the Twins have a history of saving money one year so they can spend more the next.    Bottom line is would you rather have Keuchel or not.   If you would rather have him then what else are the Twins going to do with their money?   One or two year deal is not going to ham string them.      I thought Lynn was a good move last year and many thought the same.   I don't call them mistakes just because time says they didn't work out.   It should have worked out.  Sometimes it is just on the players to perform.   Lynn not working out wasn't on the Twins.   It was on Lynn.

Maddux? Greg Maddux? He was very effective, 15+ wins a year, until he was 40. Age caught up with him only then.  If I thought that in Keuchel we were getting Maddux, I'd tell Falvine to grab a ballpoint pen (oh, excuse me, a Montblanc Classique) and get his signature on the dotted line for a five year deal. But he's not Maddux, who was indestructible. Otherwise, I agree with your analysis: a one-or-two year deal could work out if we don't have the horsepower among our younger staff. I'm optimistic about the season and expect the starting pitching, with or without this guy, to be decent. It's the relief I'm anxious about. Play ball!

I'd pass. Spend money extending our core guys. 

Sign him, but make him stay in extended Spring Training until May. Most pitchers who signed in March last year had terrible years. 

An injury or under performance is more likely than not to occur in April. Replacing Perez might not be a factor by time Keuchel is up to speed. 

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The Twins are currently about $12 million below where they started the 2018 season, so the proposed deals above would put them just over those numbers.

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If they are that close to last year's payroll, I don't see him or Kimbrel happening. What I could still see is using $12 million to get a half-season of guys with $24 million in contracts if they are in the running in June/July. 

I understanding people saying, "Why not get a whole season's worth of a guy, rather than just a few months of a rental," but a real advantage of rentals is that it gives you the opportunity to see what the present need is. What if Pineda and Perez do pan out, but Sano doesn't come back and Marwin or Polanco blows out a knee and they are three games out on July 4? At that point, having budget to rent Anthony Rendon is probably more helpful than the extra starts of slight upgrade from Perez to Keuchel. Plus, with a rental, they actually PICK UP a draft pick with a QO next winter rather than losing one this year.

I remember seeing recently that one writer said that other teams were tepid based on lack of the Astros enthusiasm for re-signing him as if he may have ...

If we signed Kuechel, we could put him on the DL and he can spend up to 20 days on rehab. This gives him the extra reps he needs and he could be ready by the time we need a 5th starter. I think the main idea is do you think we have enough depth to handle 2 or 3 injuries in the rotation at the same time. Currently our 6th starter seems solid to me, Mejia. Next we are looking at Stewart, Gonsalvez, Littell, Thorpe, DeJong, and others.... Do you see anyone or two in the group you are comfortable giving 4 to 10 starts to? If so then we only need to sign Kimbral. If not then we should look at another starter. Though I think Gio Gonzales would be a cheaper option with a similar results to Kuechel.

A one-year deal, with the option of flipping him if the Twins don't compete in 2019.

But doing so, you lose a draft pick. You also lose one (or both) of Perez and Mejia. Often we forget that a signing means someone goes from the roster. Also, signing him now would also mean opening a roster spot. Who does go with that move.

Tyler Austin on that much of a bubble?

Is he actually a better choice for a longterm deal (yes, he throws lefthanded) than, say, signing Kyle Gibson for the same number of years and/or amount?

How hurt is anyone that spring training has begun? The Twins got burned last year from slow starts of Lynn and Morison, so I picture the front office going with what they have, unless we do have any serious injury concerns.

Maddux? Greg Maddux? He was very effective, 15+ wins a year, until he was 40. Age caught up with him only then.  If I thought that in Keuchel we were getting Maddux, I'd tell Falvine to grab a ballpoint pen (oh, excuse me, a Montblanc Classique) and get his signature on the dotted line for a five year deal. But he's not Maddux, who was indestructible. Otherwise, I agree with your analysis: a one-or-two year deal could work out if we don't have the horsepower among our younger staff. I'm optimistic about the season and expect the starting pitching, with or without this guy, to be decent. It's the relief I'm anxious about. Play ball!

Big fan of Maddux just like I was of all the guys listed.   They knew how to pitch even when their velocity took a dip.    Maddux strikeout rate was well below Keuchel.    The original quote was that Keuchel outperformed his ability for a number of years and that it would catch up with him.   My point was that if he does it for a number of years then he is not outperforming his ability.   He is simply a good pitcher.   He doesn't even have to reinvent himself like some of those other guys.   He has always had mediocre velocity.     I was being a little snarky by saying outperforming ability caught up with them.   It caught up with them after many years of success and mostly when they were into their 40's.   

I'd be fine on the 1yr. I'd be OK with the 2yr. I'd be OK with 2yrs and a team option 3rd yr with a couple $M buyout.

I'm always OK with improving the talent on the team, though I dislike losing the draft choice. He is no #1 but he's solid and mostly dependable. More than likely shores up the pen some as well.

So why not signed yet by anyone, much less the Twins? Assuming he's healthy, most teams just have to be wondering about/expecting a tick or two drop in velocity the next year or two and he's done. Is that fair?

If he was willing to sign for 1/16M or 2/30M, he would not be a free agent right now. The Twins would jump at that (or should anyway), but so would every other team.

If we signed Kuechel, we could put him on the DL and he can spend up to 20 days on rehab. This gives him the extra reps he needs and he could be ready by the time we need a 5th starter. I think the main idea is do you think we have enough depth to handle 2 or 3 injuries in the rotation at the same time. Currently our 6th starter seems solid to me, Mejia. Next we are looking at Stewart, Gonsalvez, Littell, Thorpe, DeJong, and others.... Do you see anyone or two in the group you are comfortable giving 4 to 10 starts to? If so then we only need to sign Kimbral. If not then we should look at another starter. Though I think Gio Gonzales would be a cheaper option with a similar results to Kuechel.

I assume he'd either need a "legit" injury, or to accept a minor league assignment to stay at extended ST> They could, of course, discuss that assignment issue in contract negotiations.

I'm intrigued because he's a lefty and they generally hold up better with lower velocity, etc, but after watching last year's late signings I'd be extremely hesitant.