Sizing Up The 2017-18 Offseason

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Question is which smart moves, and how much is Pohlad willing to open the checkbook.  Twins need pitching, pitching, and more pitching. 

Could happen through trades, depending on how the new FO values some of the prospects or signing FA pitchers.  Should be a busy offseason.

I know I will be disappointed if it is not.

There is an abundance of 1B on the market, so i think they can find a bat at a reasonable cost. Pitching will be interesting. We will definately have better depth with several starters ready in AAA next season. Once we find one starter the bullpen will be the big concern.

I expect the front office to strike fast for a starter. That will set them up to wait out the offseason for a hitter and they would just be on the hunt for relievers.

That Darvish dude would look pretty good on our team.

Based on baseball today - the bullpen should have priority over the starting pitching.  KC started this trend and the Yankees have adopted it.

Are you ready to commit to him until he's 38 at $25 million a season?

I would say yes. The core of this team is young, so it would be in place for 5-6 years minimum. If not now, then when?

I see it more in the $120 range, enough to add a starter, a reliever or two, and perhaps a cheap vet bat.

With that they'll have some space to add money in season and it would also set them up with some flexibility going forward to lock up most of the young core.

Based on the ML payroll mean, money off the books, and the reported percentages of income vs expenditure, I'd also look for something more in line with $120M. The highest payroll in Twins history, if I recall correctly, was 7 years ago in 2010 and it was around $110M for a team expected to contend. Should we expect, and wouldn't it be logical, to assume the team could afford $120M going in to 2018?

We talk about payroll and FA contracts as well as signing all our young talent to extensions in the future. But don't forget, another $14M for Hughes comes off the books after 2018. And another $15M comes off after '18 or '19 depending on the final option year for Santana. That's nearly $30M additional for payroll. And let's assume, for the moment, that both Mauer and Dozier are extended. I believe they will combine for approximately $33M in 2018. An increase for BD and a lower contract for Mauer should still result in at least some additional savings there.

There is absolutely money to spend on the right couple 2 or 3 FA options without mortgaging future extensions, especially considering only one of said FA signings would be long term.

agreed, bullpen is important, but disagree that the Twins need to add more to the bullpen than rotation.

The Twins have a lot more upper minor league talent that is, or could be high-end bullpen talent than they have upper minor league high-end rotation talent.

Starters become relievers but not vice-versa.

Relief Corps does need help, but it might already be in the system, but I don’t think the starting help is already in the system.

I tend to agree here. Let's just make the bold prediction a starter is signed. The bullpen, IMO, really needs that one proven arm for talent, depth, production and leadership. Kintzler and Belisle added a lot to the club despite not being "top shelf" options. I believe some of that was a veteran stability.

And I don't think it's "safe" to just look at the talented young BP arms and simply assume we'll be OK. But on the other hand, Pressly, Duffey, Rogers, Hildenberger and Busentiz all offer a starting/building point with Curtiss, Reed, Bard, Jay as some that could be close, along with a return to health, eventually, for Burdi and Chargois sometime in 2018. What about Moya, Enns and maybe Melotakis yet from the port side?

I could easily see a second BP arm, but I wouldn't get carried away with years and dollars. There ARE options to build with, turn to, and on the way.

They tried pretty hard to get a veteran DH last year. I expect them to try again. Is there one that can sometimes play 3B, if needed, or RF if needed?

I could still see them adding a bat, though it's much less a priority following the signing of a couple arms. I think we're all in agreement on that. But it's also less of a priority following the development of this young roster and the overall depth and versatility of such. In other words, someone taking a half day off because there is a solid reserve to fill in for a day or two.

I hate to say it, as it seems to be beating that poor dead horse carcass yet again, but do we really have a feel yet for how the FO and field staff feel about Vargas and Grossman? Is Grossman done developing? He's not anything special, but if he could "combine" his overall numbers the past 2 season's, with some pop and decent speed and his high OB%, he could be a viable, almost daily DH who can fill in the OF here and there. Do we yet know who and what Vargas truly is? Or can he at least be a decent backup 1B who can DH and provide some bench power? I'd sure like to know what the FO is thinking about these two.

Are you ready to commit to him until he's 38 at $25 million a season?

Why yes. I am willing to spend Pohlad's money on my happiness for a change. Mauer comes off the books after next year too.

I feel that an ace starter would impact this team more than anything.

agreed, bullpen is important, but disagree that the Twins need to add more to the bullpen than rotation.

The Twins have a lot more upper minor league talent that is, or could be high-end bullpen talent than they have upper minor league high-end rotation talent.

Starters become relievers but not vice-versa.

Relief Corps does need help, but it might already be in the system, but I don’t think the starting help is already in the system.

I have been wondering about that.  Since I am a victim of Keith Law, John Bonnes, and Seth Stohs and what they tell me I only know I hear about Romero and Gonsalves and wonder if they are not ready to step up as starters.  I do not know - certain Slegers and the others they called this year did not impress.  I also do not know if our minor leaguer relief is as good as we hope too after watching Tonkin and Pressly the last two years.  Great arms, no consistency. 

Based on the ML payroll mean, money off the books, and the reported percentages of income vs expenditure, I'd also look for something more in line with $120M. The highest payroll in Twins history, if I recall correctly, was 7 years ago in 2010 and it was around $110M for a team expected to contend. Should we expect, and wouldn't it be logical, to assume the team could afford $120M going in to 2018?We talk about payroll and FA contracts as well as signing all our young talent to extensions in the future. But don't forget, another $14M for Hughes comes off the books after 2018. And another $15M comes off after '18 or '19 depending on the final option year for Santana. That's nearly $30M additional for payroll. And let's assume, for the moment, that both Mauer and Dozier are extended. I believe they will combine for approximately $33M in 2018. An increase for BD and a lower contract for Mauer should still result in at least some additional savings there. There is absolutely money to spend on the right couple 2 or 3 FA options without mortgaging future extensions, especially considering only one of said FA signings would be long term.

Hughes is signed through 2019.

On his chat today, Dave Cameron said that he thinks a Betances trade is the single most likely transaction of the offseason. The walks have been a big issue lately, but he could be a nice buy low candidate.