TwinsTakes-RD

Without question, the Twins remain intensely focused on their pursuit of Carlos Correa, which seems to be pushing all other offseason priorities to the backburner. 
Every report on the shortstop's market seems to name them among top remaining suitors, including this latest one from Jon Heyman on Saturday listing the Twins, Giants and Cubs among the "teams in on" Correa. 
More recently, the Yankees have emerged as a known contender for Correa's services, even after inking Aaron Judge to his landmark deal. ESPN's Buster Olney reported that he's "definitely picking up a lot of vibes there that yeah they signed Aaron Judge to that $360 million deal, but they’re working on something big."
It's natural for hometown fans to be skeptical of Minnesota's legitimate involvement at this stage against multiple big-market titans for a free agent likely to land $300M+ guaranteed. But outsiders don't necessarily share that skepticism, including Vegas.
As the website OddsChecker.com pointed out a couple days back, "The Twins are given -150 odds to retain Correa, that’s an implied 60% chance. The San Francisco Giants are right behind them though, as they’re given EVEN odds, an implied 50% chance, to land the star shortstop."
It's unclear exactly when Correa will make a decision. The pressure is turning up on the Twins as time passes, because their contingency plans have rapidly come off the table. Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts have already signed. The idea of pivoting to another big bat like Jose Abreu, Willson Contreras or Brandon Nimmo is also diminishing as all those players are off the table.
Carlos Rodon remains at the top of the free agent pitching pool, but his market is robust. Dan Hayes reported that the Twins are viewing Dansby Swanson as a possible Correa fallback option, having met with the shortstop via video call during the Winter Meetings, but personally I hope (and suspect) that's merely a negotiating ploy to parry against Scott Boras, who is understandably doing all he can to land his client an epic payday.
You see it in small, subtle details like Heyman – a known friend if not mouthpiece of Boras – making a point to note Correa's appealing traits in a tweet updating his market. You see it in the fact Correa's free agency continues to linger as his camp evidently plays bidders against one another to run up the price. Eleven-year deals for Turner and Bogaerts set a sharp precedent, and really give Correa and Boras the ability to set their own terms.
Up to this point, the Twins still seem genuinely invested in meeting them. How long will they hang around if the cost keeps rising? How long can we maintain our sanity as this saga drags on and the front office remains stalled out?
Soon enough, the dominoes will begin to drop. It's probably a stretch to call the Twins favorites but without a doubt, they are in there. Would have been difficult to fathom just a few short years ago.

Immediately following the completion of the World Series, players eligible for free agency will officially become free agents. The Twins have over 30 minor leaguers eligible for free agency at that time including 11 hitters. Here are three that I think the Twins should attempt to retain. But first, let's talk about the team's transactions from Tuesday and which players are eligible for free agency. 
Tuesday Transactions 
Let’s start by going through the Twins-related transactions from Tuesday. RHP Jhon Romero and LHP Devin Smeltzer were outrighted and sent to the Saints. Three players were claimed by other organizations. C/1B Caleb Hamilton was claimed by the Boston Red Sox. OF Jake Cave was claimed by the Baltimore Orioles. SS Jermaine Palacios was claimed by the Detroit Tigers. 
The Twins roster is currently at 47 players (27 pitchers, 20 hitters). There are still 10 players on the 60-Day IL that will soon have to be removed from the 60-Day IL. About ten players will either become free agents or have a player or team option on their 2023 seasons. 
Minor-League Free-Agent Hitters 
Let’s start the regularly-scheduled portion of today’s article by considering who is eligible to become a minor-league free agent. Sometimes, they are called six-year minor-league free agents because they become free agents after they have played six minor-league seasons. Of course, being on the 40-man roster means that they won’t be a free agent. At that point, the three option years come into play 
Players drafted in 2016 can be minor-league free agents.
For example, LHP Zach Featherstone was the Twins 12th round pick in 2016. He’s missed a lot of time with injuries. If the Twins don’t add him to the 40-man roster before the end of the World Series, Featherstone will be a free agent. 
Alex Kirilloff. Jose Miranda. Griffin Jax. Jordan Balazovic. Each of these players was also drafted by the Twins in 2016. Each of them is currently on the 40-man roster. Because of that, they cannot become free agents. 
Devin Smeltzer cleared waivers and was outrighted and sent to St. Paul. However, since he was drafted by the Dodgers in 2016, he will become a free agent after the World Series. Had Caleb Hamilton cleared waivers, he would have been a free agent also. That’s important because of the Red Sox DFA and he clears, he can be a free agent.  That tells me that the Red Sox are likely to keep him on their roster throughout the offseason. 
However, if the Twins remove any of them from the 40-man roster, they can choose to become a minor-league free agent. 
International players signed in 2015 can be minor-league free agents
Wander Javier signed with the Twins on July 2, 2015, as a 16-year-old from the Dominican Republic. Jair Camargo signed with the Dodgers on July 10, 2015, out of Colombia. Their pro careers began in the Dominican Summer League in 2016. Of note, Jhon Romero cleared waivers on Tuesday, but at the end of the World Series, he will become a free agent. 
Veterans 
Players signed as minor-league free agents will again become minor-league free agents. Occasionally there are two-year minor-league contracts. One example of that is veteran Brock Stewart. The Twins signed the former top prospect late this summer. He finished his rehab and pitched in some games late in the season. He should come into 2023 fully healthy and ready to compete for a return to the big leagues in a bullpen role with the Twins. 
Three Hitters to Keep
It is probably worth noting that as a minor-league free agent, players can actually make some decent money. Obviously, that is based on their level of play, age, and competition for the player’s services. Often, minor-league contracts will come with an invitation to big-league spring training. 
#1 - Catcher Jair Camargo
Camargo came to the Twins in 2020 with Kenta Maeda in the deal that sent Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers. He split the 2020 season between Cedar Rapids and Wichita. In 77 games, he hit .262/.310/.483 (.793) with 11 doubles and 18 home runs. While he still didn’t walk much, his approach at the plate was much improved. And he became a reliable middle-of-the-order hitter for his teams. Defensively, he has work to do behind the plate, but he does continue to improve. He is athletic and has a strong arm. In 2022, he threw out 38% of would-be base stealers at both Cedar Rapids and Wichita. 
Camargo may not be one of the Twins more well-known prospects, but he is a name to know. He just turned 23 on July 1st. I don’t know what kind of offers he could get as a minor-league free agent, but I would prioritize bringing him back. Ideally, the Twins would offer him a fantastic minor-league deal and get him to sign it after the Rule 5 draft so they don’t have to worry about him being selected. If not, they may need to consider adding him to the 40-man roster, and if that’s the case, they might as well do it before the World Series ends to avoid the risk of losing him.
 
 
#2 - Infielder Wander Javier 
In 2015, Javier was one of the top 16-year-olds available in the international market. The Twins signed him to a $4 million bonus. This summer, Twins Director of Player Personnel Mike Radcliff acknowledged on Bally Sports that the Twins also had an agreement with Juan Soto before he backed out and signed with the Nationals for $1.5 million. While he put up some strong numbers in the rookie leagues, he also missed a lot of time due to injury. He played just nine games in 2016 in the DSL. He missed all of 2018 with a shoulder injury that cost him time early in 2019. Then, he didn’t play in 2020. 
In 2021, he stayed in Cedar Rapids, though the league had changed from Low-A to High-A. He hit .225 with a .280 on-base percentage, but he also had 15 doubles, 10 triples, and 12 home runs in 96 games. He returned to the Kernels this year, and in 109 games, he hit .209 with a .273 on-base percentage. He hit 14 doubles, five triples, and 12 home runs. He ended the season with seven games for the Saints and had two hits in 20 at-bats including a home run. 
 
 
So why would I want the Twins to bring back Javier? Well, he will turn 24 near the end of December. He is a very good athlete, and while he just has not hit at High-A, he has the speed and strength to develop at some point. Maybe. Defensively, he is a better-than-average defensive shortstop with good range and a strong arm. The Twins have had him play almost exclusively at shortstop throughout his time in the organization. However, after 2022 top pick Brooks Lee joined the Kernels, Javier played mostly third base and a couple of games at second base. I wouldn’t mind it if the Twins brought him back and used him as a utility infielder. He has had the pressure of his signing bonus all these years, and maybe being able to remove some of that might help. Of course, potentially the best way for him to do that would be to get a new start elsewhere. 
#3 - Outfielder Leobaldo Cabrera 
Leobaldo Cabrera, a 24-year-old outfielder from Venezuela has had an interesting career. He originally signed with the Yankees back in July 2015 for $250,000. A year later, they signed his brother Oswaldo Cabrera. Leobaldo was released by the Yankees in 2018. Oswaldo made his MLB debut in August. The Twins allowed Leobaldo to spend a weekend with his family to be at his brother’s debut. 
 
 
In 2019, Cabrera began to play in the independent Empire League. The Twins liked his power potential and his big outfield arm and in April of 2021, they signed him as a depth piece in the minor leagues. He began in Ft. Myers where he rarely played where he played five games. Then he moved up to Cedar Rapids and only played 14 games. But then he went to Double-A Wichita and hit .235/.335/.482 (.817) with seven doubles and 11 homers in 52 games. He re-signed with the Twins and spent the whole season in Wichita. In 83 games, he hit .223/.309/.356 (.665). When you consider he started the season by going 0-for-32 in April, it’s not quite so far. 
He is still just 24. He has some right-handed power, and like his brother, he has a rocket for an arm. He’s also just a pretty good defensive outfielder. 
 
 
Other Soon-To-Bee Minor-League Free Agents
C/1B Roy Morales
IF Nash Knight
IF Elliot Soto
OF John Andreoli
OF Braden Bishop
OF Cole Sturgeon
C Chance Sisco
OF Zach Huffins 
Would you be interested in seeing the Twins bring any of these hitters back? I’ll be back soon with the potential minor-league free agents.
 
 

Frankie Montas was one of the hottest names on the market at the trade deadline, and was known to be pursued by Minnesota last offseason. The Yankees acquired him alongside reliever Lou Trivino in exchange for four prospects on August 1st. The results have not been as hoped.
Montas posted a 6.35 ERA in eight turns, including just one quality start, before undergoing an MRI on his shoulder this week. He landed on the injured list and there's a pretty good chance he won't pitch again for the Yankees in 2022. Barring further clarity around what's affecting him, Montas figures to be a bit of a question mark heading into next season, too.
The Twins can obviously relate. They've gone through a similar ordeal with their own prized deadline pickup. Like Montas, Tyler Mahle had some known shoulder issues when he was acquired. Like Montas, those issues have now grown more problematic, even though – in both cases – MRI results revealed no structural damage, before or after the trades.
This is what differentiates the Mahle outcome from, say, the Chris Paddack move, where the Twins accepted a rather extreme level of risk in the name of acquiring extended control of a good starter. That was a measured risk on its own, but it shouldn't be grouped with the one they took on Mahle, who (like Montas) was more typical of a deadline gambit.
It's the nature of the beast: as a leveraged buyer in a seller's market, under big pressure to improve, you're going to have to take risks – like ponying up big prospect capital for a talented arm with ambiguous health concerns, or buying high on a breakout All-Star reliever who lacks a convincing track record. 
Those who constantly advocate for these types of assertive showings from the front office now sound rather toothless when criticizing them in hindsight. While we can all see the overall results have been unsatisfactory – albeit hardly disastrous for a reigning last-place team – this front office was audacious in shaking things up. Isn't that what we want?
The big deadline moves. Locking down Byron Buxton with a creative extension. Trading their highest-upside pitching prospect for Sonny Gray. Unloading Josh Donaldson's contract. Signing Carlos Correa to a historic deal (albeit at the expense of investment in pitching). 
And going back a bit further, let's not forget about trading José Berríos to Toronto at the 2021 deadline, thus letting the Blue Jays sign him to a massive extension while flipping him into one of their breakthrough pitching prospects. 
That one looks pretty good now. Others don't. And it's beyond valid to criticize the front office for these many moves that haven't panned out, especially those like the Paddack trade, which carried huge red flags from the start. (Although, if we're being honest, they were kinda right about Taylor Rogers, just as they were Berríos?)
There's a big gap between "merits criticism" and "needs replacement." I'm not close to the latter point with Derek Falvey or Thad Levine, although changes at various levels of the organization are well warranted. In terms of leadership vision, we've experienced the opposite approach – one characterized by risk aversion and playing it safe. I dare say that's what sunk them last year when their biggest additions were Alex Colomé and JA Happ. 
As the saying goes, scared money don't make money. Sometimes those bold gambles don't turn out as hoped, and you've got to live with the consequences. It happens even to the Yankees. That won't stop them from staying aggressive and shooting their shots in the future. It shouldn't stop the Twins either, albeit at a different scale given their resources.
 

In an attempt to be transparent, Twins Daily writers did have a discussion and decided that we could not just leave this article empty. So, while it was a bad month for Twins pitchers, we are going to find the best of that group. 
Honorable Mention #3: Joe Ryan
Ryan struck out 27 over 26 2/3 innings in July, the most on the club for the month. Even after missing time due to Covid and the loss of Wes Johnson, Ryan appeared to be composed, and his ERA was in a downward trending motion (well, until that start in San Diego). Overall, Ryan contributed to three wins for the team, recording one win and one loss for his decisions.  He continues to break franchise records and his pitches are some of the nastiest I've seen from the Twins pitching staff.
Ryan, is dominant on the mound and in his first 20 starts he had 3.18 ERA over 108 innings with a 103/28 K/BB ration and opponents hit just .198 off of him.  Ryan's only downfall came in an uncharacteristic game against San Diego last weekend. The rookie struggled with his slider and change-up (which he has been working on), leaving meatballs for the hitters. He gave up five home runs and ten total runs in 4 2/3 innings and his ERA jumped to 3.89. 
Honorable Mention #2: Dylan Bundy
Deciding between Dylan Bundy and Sonny Gray was not easy, but overall, Bundy was able to produce lower numbers and a better decision outcome for the team. Bundy came out of the month with two wins and no losses. He also had a lower WHIP (1.40) even if his ERA was grossly high at 6.05. Over his 19 1/3 innings, he managed to record 18 strikeouts. In three of the games Bundy started, the Twins won, and Bundy recorded two wins and one loss. There is no real downfall for Bundy, except he leaves balls hanging in the zone, giving other teams a chance to capitalize on hits and runs. 
Honorable Mention #1: Emilio Pagan
I realize this name draws a lot of angst and controversy, but numbers don’t lie. Pagan, in 9 1/3 innings, struck out 18 batters and only allowed four runs and two walks. He registered a 1.07 WHIP and saw more innings than any of the other relievers. Pagan can be a good pitcher. He handled the strike zone well in July. He has the most strikeouts of the relievers and recorded two wins, one loss, and two holds out of ten games, four of which he finished. As much as people say Pagan loses games, technically, he only had one blown save, during which he contributed three earned runs. While his mound appearances can be frustrating, Pagan somehow still leads the Twins in saves (9).
Twins Pitcher of the Month: Jharel Cotton
I have been waiting for this moment since seeing Cotton in spring training. Cotton pitched 12 innings over eight games and had 12 strikeouts. He only allowed three runs in July. 
On July 14th against Chicago and July 27th against Milwaukee, Cotton came into some hideous situations with massive deficits on the board. Cotton has been working mostly when the games are already out of hand, but he occasionally gets an opportunity when the game is still in limbo.  
Of the eight July games, he only gave up three runs, none of which were a factor for a win or loss for the Twins. Cotton himself has yet to garner a decision with the Twins. 
Cotton has one of the nastiest sliders and change-ups in the league, when he is on. At times, he can look really good, miss some bats and get quick outs. When he's struggled with control is when he has given up runs (like any pitcher, of course). Overall, Cotton's ERA continued to trend down in July, and his control was improved. 
With all the struggles the Twins pitching saw in July, I know that this month's Pitcher of the Month article may ruffle feathers, but that's okay. The numbers tell the truth and the eyes tell the story. Where would you have put these pitchers? (if you can't say "on waivers.") Would you have included any of them? Do you think there is hope for the pitching in the next month after the trade deadline?
 

Miguel Sanó has had an April to forget in 2022 for the Minnesota Twins. Through 15 games, Sanó has just five hits and an abysmal OPS of .380. Sanó has just one extra-base hit and has statistically been the least valuable player in baseball in this early season with an fWAR of -.07.
Miguel Sanó having yet another poor start has left Minnesota Twins fans extremely frustrated with the first baseman and questioning whether it is time to cut bait. Sanó is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, and with Alex Kirilloff nearing his way back from injury and Jose Miranda on the doorstep of the Majors, it might make sense to move on from him in favor of youth.
I certainly have voiced my own frustrations with Miguel Sanó.
Miguel Sanó’s advanced numbers, though, paint a different picture and portend that Sanó’s early struggles are largely fluky and that better days are ahead. Let’s dig deeper into the numbers.
First, let’s look at his contact numbers. Through the first handful of weeks, Miguel Sanó ranks 11th in all of baseball with an average exit velocity of 93.2 MPH, right on par with his career average exit velocity of 93.1 MPH. Further, Sanó’s hard-hit percentage is at 50%, tied for 24th in baseball. Finally, his barrel numbers are at his typically high rate, with a barrel percentage of 15.6%, just a tick below his career average. 
So, if his contact numbers are at their typically high level, then it must be his poor plate discipline that explains his terrible numbers, right? Wrong. Sanó is actually showing better discipline at the plate in 2022 than he ever has in his career. Thus far in 2022, Sanó owns a career-low K% of 29.3 with a BB% of 13.8, the second-highest mark of his career. Additionally, Sanó has a career-low chase rate and whiff rate of just 16.9% and 33.3%, respectively.
Just look at Sanó’s statcast percentile numbers. Does this look like someone who should be hitting .083 and worthy of being cut?

If Sanó’s contact rates are at his typically-elite levels, and his plate discipline numbers are at career-best levels, why is Miguel Sanó having such a terrible start to the season? 
Simply put, it’s been bad luck for the Dominican. 
A simple, yet admittedly not perfect, way to gauge luck in baseball is by looking at batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Over a large enough sample size, the BABIP for most MLB players will settle at around .300. Heading into the 2022 season, Miguel Sanó had a career BABIP of .329. This season, though, Miguel Sanó is sitting at a BABIP of .097, the second-lowest mark in baseball behind Kansas City’s Carlos Santana.
Another way to look at bad luck is to compare a player’s actual numbers to his expected numbers and look at the difference. The best numbers to look for this is weighted on-base average (wOBA) versus expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). wOBA is a catch-all offensive statistic that best encapsulates offensive performance. xwOBA then looks at a player's process statistics such as exit velocity to determine what a player’s numbers should be, as we all know that luck is a big part of the game of baseball. Miguel Sanó currently has a wOBA of .192, compared to a xwOBA of .334. The -0.142 difference between those two numbers is the sixth-largest discrepancy in all of baseball, showing that Sanó has been one of the most snake-bitten players in 2022.
On Tuesday night, Miguel Sanó teased what could be the start of some converted luck as he smoked a 108 MPH single over right fielder, Robbie Grossman's, head which (in the wildest way possible) wound up being a walk-off hit for the Twins.
 
It has been extremely frustrating to watch Miguel Sanó bat in 2022, but all of the advanced numbers show that better days are ahead for the right-hander. It can be tempting to want to give up on Sanó and want to move onto other options, but the upside that Sanó brings is sky-high. Let’s cut Sanó some slack as a big summer is coming for the powerful first baseman.

Although Derek Falvey had suggested that the team was ready to roll with its existing group of starters, fans know better than to take such remarks at face value. On the eve of (postponed) Opening Day, the Twins look to be adding an intriguing asset in Paddack, who was a top prospect turned outstanding big-league starter not so long ago.
Details are scant at this point, but Rosenthal reports that the Twins are "working to acquire" the right-hander, who was known to be available after the Padres traded for A's starter Sean Manaea (thought to be another Twins target) last weekend. 
That language does not suggest any finality, but Rosenthal is not the type to report something like this on a whim. It's likely a deal is about to materialize.
Of note: Trevor Larnach was pulled from the St. Paul Saints lineup just ahead of game time tonight.
Paddack was ranked by MLB.com as the 34th-best prospect in baseball ahead of 2019, and arrived in the majors that year with a bang, posting a 3.33 ERA and 2.4 fWAR over 26 starts (140 innings) for the Padres. 
He struggled a bit in the shortened 2020 season, posting a 4.73 ERA in 12 starts, and last year was rough – at least according to his 5.07 ERA. But his 3.78 FIP and 3.87 xFIP suggest a good amount of bad luck was at play. He kept the homers in check, kept his velocity steady (averaging 95 MPH with the fastball), and maintained his excellent control.
With a few tweaks, the Twins could get Paddack back on track as a strong #2/3 type starter, and he's under team control for three more seasons. Don't be fooled by the numbers from last year – which new Minnesota bench coach Jayce Tingler saw play out first-hand as Padres manager. This would be a big get.

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Breakdowns of the organization's current depth at each position, highlighting key prospects who could make a quick impact A nuanced look at the payroll, with varied spending scenarios that may realistically play out Thorough examination of the crucial Byron Buxton decision: extend, trade, or retain? Profiles and contract estimates for more than 100 free agents at positions of need: SP, RP, SS and more Exploration of the trade market from both sides: Who are the Twins most likely to target, and who are they most likely to deal? Writeups on arbitration-eligible players along with 2022 salary projections Analysis of how the looming CBA expiration and negotiations may impact the winter and season ahead This full-color PDF, designed by the one and only Brock Beauchamp, will feature writing from myself, John Bonnes, Seth Stohs, and several of your favorite Twins Daily contributors. By purchasing a copy, you're not only snagging an indispensable offseason resource, but also tipping your cap for the work that goes into running TD year-round. (And we appreciate the hell out of it.)
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