Running Down the Hall (of Fame Ballot): 2020 Edition

Jeter and Walker are my only choices. How can you say that Bonds and Clemens would have been in without steroids? Boston thought Clemens was done. They traded him and he suddenly got great! Wow what magic.

Watching him his entire career, Vizquel is 2nd only to The Wizard when it comes to SS and SHOULD BE a lock for the HOF. He didn't have Ozzie's flair, but was just as dependable and maybe had the better arm. Like Smith, he was a defense first and foremost player who developed in to a very nice offensive player who did a bit of everything.

I can be a typical Yankee hater, but I have never disliked Jeter or disparaged him in any way. I will say, however, that part of his reverence, IMO, comes from being a Yankee and his post season success. That success is important, relevant and can not be denied. But if I were building a dream team tomorrow and had my choice of a SS in his prime, Ozzie would be my #1 choice. I'm not so sure I wouldn't pick Vizquel over Jeter.

I want to agree that Bonds and Clemens deserve it regardless due to their greatness before all the PED conversations and taints. I watched their entire careers. The problem is, NOBODY, except the players themselves and those closest to them, know exactly when the PED usage took place. Was it from day one? When they hit 30? 31? 32?

Whether you agree or not, there is a stigma there. They will be included at some point. It may be further down the road, and with an asteric by their name, but they will be there one day. But it won't be now.

Derek Jeter and I'll be cheering for Omar Vizquel too.

Everyone agrees on Jeter. He will get in. He benefits from the NY Yankee prestige.

Larry Walker should absolutely be in. His numbers are eye popping even if you look at his splits away from Coors, and he was an elite defensive outfielder. He stole bases. Playing in small markets is seeming to hurt him. He was an elite five tool player. 

Helton's numbers are there, but the Coors effect is stronger, and he was a first baseman, which requires more on the offensive side to get in.  Not a five tool player. You could make the argument for or against. 

Bonds and Clemens- heck no. If Pete Rose doesn't get in, they shouldn't either. 

Jeter's case is undeniable. he's a no-doubter, even if his defense was overrated for most of his career, he was still a fantastic player and offensive force especially when SS was still a position that teams were willing to ignore offense on. easy pick.

Larry Walker is also an easy one for me, although I recognize it's harder for others. walker was a true 5-tool player who was also able to turn it into results. He was a great hitter (and not just at Coors, where he put up video game numbers), an excellent defensive player, a terrific baserunner and the only reason he wasn't in almost immediately was a) he played in Colorado in his prime, and he struggled to stay healthy. walker only played 150+ games once. Only made it in 140+ 4 times in 16 "full" seasons. but when he played...man, was he good. Power, patience, and contact as a hitter. It wasn't just Coors; Larry Walker hit .322 playing his last year in Montreal. he could hit lefties, rightes...he could hit on Mars if you asked him to. Vlad Guerrero glided in to the HoF and the only thing Vlad truly did better than Larry Walker was stay on the field. If Vlad is worthy (and I'm fine with it), how is Walker not? Even with the injuries, I'd take Walker in a choose-up game every time. Equal as hitter, Walker was a significantly better baserunner and defender. Vlad had an amazing arm; Walker's was as good and Walker had a ton of range to go with it. I hope Walker gets in.

Scott Rolen is another easy pick for me. 3B are underrepresented in the HoF and there are stars that deserve the nod. Rolen is one of them. A sterling defensive player, he also brought a sturdy bat to the yard. His 2004 season wins the MVP race easily if he's in the AL that year, but 3 St.L players (Rolen, Pujols, and Edmonds) all having elite years probably didn't help (Bonds was a deserving winner, Beltre could have taken it too). but it remains an amazing year. health is the only strike against Rolen; if he had been able to stay on the field more we might be talking about him as the best 3B of his generation instead of Beltre, but again: longevity and health are Beltre's advantages. Lop of the first season for both men (where neither came close ot a full season) and compare the first 16 years of their careers: Beltre comes out ahead on bWAR, Rolen takes it on rate stats. In terms of total value, Rolen and Ron Santo are almost identical, and there's no doubt in my mind Santo's a worthy HoFer.

reluctantly, I would probably vote for Schilling for on field performance. but I'm not going to lose any sleep over people leaving him off the ballot and invoking the character clause on him for everything he's shown post-baseball. Great pitcher. Big game performer. Rotten human (JMO). A tough call for me. Very hard to separate the things he's said (and many of the things he's done) off the field.

I'm on the record as being no on Clemens & Bonds. Age them off the ballot and let some future committee decide. I think they were probably worthy pre-steroids, but I also think they're both a disgrace. Let this be their pennance: they don't get in on the writer's ballot and have to play to a committee down the road.

I struggle on Andruw Jones: the last 5 years of his career don't do anything for his case, it's a relatively short peak...but so was Joe Mauer's. CF is a pretty demanding position, as seen by Buxton's inability to stay on the field. Transcendent defensive player. Great 10 year run. Game changer in his 20's. I'm leaning yes on him, but i understand the no's.

Omar Vizquel is a no for me. Loved watching him play; he was probably the most fun shortstop to watch since Ozzie Smith...but he wasn't anywhere near the player Ozzier was. Omar has a lot of highlights, but is a bit overrated defensively, IMHO. Almost certainly won more Gold Gloves than he deserved. Pretty bad offensive player. No power. Played forever, but is that HoF? He was literally never the best SS in the AL; even in his best season he was never higher than 3rd. He was never an MVP and never deserved one. 3-time all-star, who really only earned it once even with extra credit for defense thrown in. he was very good, he was fun to watch, and he was skilled enough to keep playing long after most of his peers had move on...but I vote no on Omar.

Helton is another one I'm leaning yes on. I know he's another Coors kid, but OPS+ adjusts for park factors and he was still insane. That 5 year run from '00-'04 is ludicrous: 163,160,148,165,165 for his OPS+! (Joe Mauer's MVP year was 171) He wasn't quite Frank Thomas or Jeff Bagwell but it's not that far off. I hope his candidacy gets a looooong look.

I lean no on Pettite: lot of good years, only a couple of great ones, plus the 'roids. 

manny is another no: might have been the best pure hitter in the game at his peak, but was an awful OF, hurt his team with the antics, and is an unquestioned cheater.

billy wagner is the one other guy I look at: more dominant than hoffman and if "closer" still matters...he's worth a good argument.

Keep in mind that it's the Hall of Baines now, not the Hall of Fame. Voters now have the fact that Harold Baines is in the Hall of Fame in mind when they cast their ballots. Because he's a player who played against most of the guys still on the ballot, it'll be tougher to keep certain guys out due to a Baines comparison. Walker is a good case; I think his chances this year were greatly helped by Baines getting in, because he outperforms Baines measurably in most criteria and to leave Walker out while Baines is in fails a basic logic test for some voters. I expect the number of annual inductees to rise over the next decade or so; instead of 1 or 2 guys getting in per year, more like 4 or 5. 

I've always been pro-Bonds and Clemens, but I understand the argument against letting them in too. 

Vizquel is no Andrelton.

Essentially, on a per-game basis, Vizquel is Jose Iglesias. So, Jose Iglesias for a long time is a Hall of Famer...

Keep in mind that it's the Hall of Baines now, not the Hall of Fame. Voters now have the fact that Harold Baines is in the Hall of Fame in mind when they cast their ballots. Because he's a player who played against most of the guys still on the ballot, it'll be tougher to keep certain guys out due to a Baines comparison. Walker is a good case; I think his chances this year were greatly helped by Baines getting in, because he outperforms Baines measurably in most criteria and to leave Walker out while Baines is in fails a basic logic test for some voters. I expect the number of annual inductees to rise over the next decade or so; instead of 1 or 2 guys getting in per year, more like 4 or 5. 

I think most writers think the Baines induction was a mistake run by a committee of biased insiders supporting one of their guys. I don't think it will lower standards in the mind of most; I truly doubt most voters are looking at Harold Baines and going, "welp, if Baines is in, we have to vote in anyone better than him". Because dang, then a LOT of guys are getting in...

Full ballot. No huge names next year (Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, and Torii Hunter are the big newcomers), so hopefully the BBWAA plug their noses and vote Schilling/Bonds/Clemens. The Hall of Fame should be able to tell the story of baseball, and you need those 3 to properly tell it.

This is a really good run down. Well done. Agree nearly 100%.

Full ballot. No huge names next year (Buehrle and Tim Hudson are the big newcomers), so hopefully the BBWAA plug their noses and vote Schilling/Bonds/Clemens. The Hall of Fame should be able to tell the story of baseball, and you need those 3 to properly tell it.

I think Schilling gets in next year (assuming he can keep his big yap shut).

Clemens and Bonds won't, I don't think. But they might get it on the last year; it wouldn't surprise me if some writers decide to allow them to have their vote in the last year of eligibility. Personally, i think I would allow them to age off the ballot and let a special committee decide on them a little further removed from the times, but that's just me.

There's no easy picks for 2021 in the first-timers (I love Torii, but he's borderline at best and certainly not 1st ballot. Andruw Jones isn't getting a lot of traction right now and he was a better player even with the rapid decline) so it'll be interesting if there's a groundswell for one of the non-PED guys stuck in the middle: Rolen, Vizquel, Helton, Kent, Wagner, or Sheffield. Seems unlikely. But there are two veterans committees meeting next year...maybe Tony O finally makes it?

Jeter and Walker made it.
Jeter one vote shy of unanimous.

As a Canadian, just want to say it is awesome that Walker got in! Only the second Canadian born player after the great Fergie Jenkins.  We are not only about hockey and the Raptors. This really instills national pride. Very cool.

I don't have it right now but look at how many years the guy hitting behind Walker led the league in RBI.

He was an elite baserunner from an instinct point and was standing on second average of about 65 times a year.

And it's disturbing that there is a voter that thinks that JJ Putz is a hall of Famer.

Maybe that person read “JJ” and though it said Jeter? That could be the explanation for Jeter’s missing vote, right? :-)

Intriguing point to consider is just how quickly Walker rose to the point of election from mediocre vote totals. Essentially, anyone writing off Andruw Jones from the Hall of Fame right now should reconsider if they're doing it based on his current vote percentage, because Walker was at a similar vote percentage 7 years into his candidacy that Jones is in his second year. (Others are around Jones' vote tally, it's just notable that they had nearly the same percentage this year as Walker's last year before his final ascent began to election)

I’m guessing there won’t be too many Hall of Famers inducted in the next few years.

Beltre, Ichiro, and Sabathia are probably the only first ballot locks of currently retired players.

Ortiz and Beltran both will probably eventually be inducted, but they both have scandals that have tarnished their careers.

I doubt A-Rod ever gets elected, given his lengthy suspension. Chase Utley and Joe Mauer are both going to probably have to wait a while on the ballot. Scott Rolen and Omar Vizquel will eventually get in, while I feel Billy Wagner and Andruw Jones probably won’t make it in. I just hope there are no years without an inductee.