One Fan's Opinion: Cleaning the Clubhouse in Three Steps

Nice Article !!  I especially liked the link to the next 3 years of potential free agents.  It's good for reference.  While I would love to bring Nellie back and there is no doubt him hitting 3rd or cleanup would benefit our lineup, I believe all significant resources need to be used toward beefing up the pitching.  The Twins (like ALL baseball teams) compete when they PITCH.  When they don't pitch, it doesn't matter how good the lineup is, historically, they will struggle.  And any resources left after they improve the SP's and BP should be used for a RH outfield bat  (Mark Canha or if they go big, Starling Marte) and a stop gap SS (Iglesias, Galvis etc).

Nice article Sherry. agree with you on Simmons. It has been a trend with this FO to think an aging player will return to prior performance level- get one more good year. Rotation also agree, need to sign a couple of FAs with one being top of rotation quality. Cruz, I agree with his positive influence on team, but question if he can continue to perform at a high level considering his age. 

I enjoyed this, but would not bring Cruz back.  I have proceeded through the misery and disappointments that aging creates and I think we have enough history to know that Cruz is on the downward slide - as much as I loved to see him in the lineup, it is time to more on.  

So glad you stuck a pin in the Simmons is an elite fielder balloon!  No more needs to be said.

Pitching is everyone's guess.  I really want the stress on our young prospects - not Jax, Gant, Barnes - they are not in my SP rotation thoughts, but there are many others in the minors who are ready and need to grow in the bigs.  Old pitchers like Greinke, Kershaw are not my wish.  I want a young steady player with years ahead of him - kind of like Berrios.  Oh well.

Sad that Simmons has fallen so far. I was a huge proponent of his. But now I agree he’s done. 
If Cruz would return as the hitting coach I’d have him in a heartbeat with a lifetime contract. But when his eyesight catches up with his age that precious clubhouse dynamic he brings will shift directions. As much as I love him I say no. But the club needs to find that cohesiveness he created somewhere. I’m sure, like the rest of the country, there’s division in that clubhouse. The teams that conquer that will have an edge. 
Pitching. Good pitching costs lots of money. Good pitchers have figured out how to be successful with life’s normal distractions and noise. Good pitchers on good teams have proven they’re not a significant negative on the clubhouse dynamic. Those are the ones I would target in free agency. I don’t know yet if Wes is the guy yet, but he has a proven record in college. He figured it out there. So odds are good he’ll figure it out here.

5 hours ago, Sherry Cerny said:

#1 No More Andrelton

 Luis Arraez and Nick Gordon, it was really disappointing to have someone like Simmons in the line up, especially in the second half. It's a collective sigh of relief that Simmons is becoming a free agent.

I love the old adage - “Offense wins games, Defense wins championships." I believe it’s true. If the Twins would be able to get a solid pitching staff, a defense that was less messy, and consider bringing back Nelson Cruz, that would be a start to creating a winning team for the 2022 season.

LOL, yep Arraez, I would love to see more games where Twins lose without giving up a hit as Arraez throws the ball into right field, BRILLIANT.

You like the adage but would use Keystone Cops for infielders, LOL ?

You are correct on Cruz.

Agreed on the Simmons debacle.

I would be in agreement with the FO, though, should they go out and find another SS in free agency for all of the conventional wisdom reasons (Polanco & the ankles are happy and productive at 2nd, Arraez’ knees aren’t great to have at SS, Gordon just doesn’t seem to have the natural arm strength to be a dependable player there.)

I also don’t think the team should press too hard / give up too much to bring Cruz back. There’s a glut of corner / DH kind of guys now and a lack of center depth and pitching; I’d rather the team spend effort and resources on the latter. However, I’m totally on board with offering him whatever coaching job he wants when the time comes if that’s what he wants to do.

You are right on about Simmons. Also probably can get Cruz back for 9 or 10 mill Also see if we can do the same deal with Tampa trading Donaldson. We can get same production from another former twin in Escobar for half the money.

Wait a minute folks. Simmons had the 6th highest fielding percentage in the American league at SS in 2021. . He made some awesome plays at SS. He also made some heads up plays at SS. However his batting was pathetic. His swings looked like my high school teammates.  I don't want him back either, but my reasons have nothing todo with his fielding percentage. 

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

49 errors!!!! That's terrible!  With a glove like th- .... wait, across 4 years?  12 errors a year?  For a shortstop?

If SS errors are your thing, you won't enjoy a return of Polanco to the most visible defensive position - he made 18 and 22 errors in his two full-time stints at the position (and he committed 17 this season, mostly at 2B).  Gordon was error prone in the minors and the team showed reluctance to even try him there this year. Arraez... no. Just no. 

We need range in a shortstop, and an arm.  Simmons touched the ball over 500 times this season, as did every full-time shortstop in the majors - Andrelton's rate of plays made per inning was second in the AL among full-timers (though in years past, he usually would be #1).  The number of errors that get charged are a drop in the bucket to a shortstop's total picture, in part because the official scorers are directed not to call every play-not-made an error for statistics-keeping purposes.

I'm not going to defend Simmons. He's "only" 31 but played like an old 31. He has slipped defensively to only better than average, and his bat is impossible to support no matter how good the defense - no player can save enough runs to make up for the black hole he was in the lineup.  He was below replacement-level and won't be missed IMO.  But I like to make roster decisions based on the full resume a player brings, not the superficial aspects.

 

Oh, and, Welcome To Twins Daily.   I wound up doing a little deep-dive on one of the supporting points you made, but overall I like the ideas you raised in this article.

I agree with Ashbury.  SS needs range and a rocket arm. By the way, I don't know how to measure this but, looking at the games on my computer at MLB.COM,  I thought Simmons' arm was very good. But then I'm having a cataract removed Thursday, so that may have affected my judgment. When the doctor told me I had a cataract, I told him there must be a mistake, I drive a Jeep.

Twins have options this off season.  If you can trade Kepler, Kiriloff or Sano for pitching then absolutely bring Cruz back. Cruz has been our most consistent bright spot the last few years.  Otherwise I am in the pitching needs to be the priority crowd. Enjoyed your article. Thanks

To call Simmons even a bad signing is to ignore a lot. He wasn’t even the signing that worked out the worse this year. To forget about the likes of Nolasco, Correa, or Park is a good thing unless the topic is worse signings ever. The mistake they made was at the trade deadline when the Yankees were interested in him. The team must have wanted Gil back. 

Bringing Cruz back works if the clutter at the corners get moved.  

I believe the Twins got what they wanted out of Simmons, Defense. Anything from his bat was gravy, unfortunately it was more like water. Had he hit .250 or .260 they and us would have been thrilled. With Lewis and Martin probably 1 year away yet another 1 year stop-gap SS will be needed. Please don't put Polanco there, he belongs at 2B. I'd really like to see Arraez get more reps at 3B spelling Donaldson and have JD get more AB's at DH to save his legs. With that scenario a reunion with Cruz is highly unlikely or appropriate. Especially if they keep Sano for 1B/DH and Kirolloff getting time at 1B as well. As for Gordon I'd like for him to be the main utility guy. Him as a full-time SS won't fly and for all we know his bat might not be any better than Simmons was. Let's see what he can do getting a full season under him first. As for the hole Simmons creates in the lineup it wasn't much worse than the holes created by Sano and Kepler. 

The rotation is a mystery once you get past Ober and geeze I even hate to say it, Ryan, but I'm sure they are both locks going into next year. It's been talked about but I'd like to see Pineda brought back. Then you've got to look at outside arms that will make a difference if you are serious about contending in 2022. Will the FO spend the money needed to bring in 2 top quality arms? Cause only 1 won't be enough. And then will those 2 top quality guys even want to come here? We all know how Free Agents look past this organization. It might take a trade to get the arm/s they need and at what cost? Where is the depth in the minors that would allow a fixture in the lineup to be traded? 3B Miranda is the most likely guy close to MLB ready which means Donaldson or Arraez are expendable. Both have baggage with Donaldson's contract and Arraez's limited fielding ability, however beyond Polanco, Arraez could be a good enough, not great, fit for some other team at 2B. 

As for Cruz, it is intriguing to bring him back but it will only make sense if Donaldson and Sano are both traded. 

5 hours ago, Otwins said:

you can trade Kepler, Kiriloff or Sano for pitching

No.

1 hour ago, Sousy said:

No.

If Houston wanted Kiriloff and would give up Luis Garcia. It takes quality to get quality. If only the Twins still had a Brian Duensing to make the deal work

The whole point of Simmons, known to be a weaker hitter, was defense, combining him with Donaldson at third, Polanco at second, and Buxton in centerfield. Donaldson gave us 91 games. We know how Buxton fared. Also, the Twins were probably hoping for much more from Dobnak (a ground ball pitcher) as well as Happ and Shoemaker needing sparkling defense behind them. If the Yankee rumors of wanting the defensive Simmons, I wonder why the Twins didn't pull the plug.

Come 2022 the Twins need to focus on players playing their position. Who's on first? Is it Sano or Kirilloff. Or is Kirilloff in the outfield until Larnach plays his way back on the team. Is Garver the main catcher, or does he get bats as a DH (or 1B guy). If he is going to play elsewhere, then the Twins will need a "third catcher." Is Donaldson prepared to play all-the-time at third, or better suited to split time at DH. If so, then who plays third - Arraez, or Miranda? Right now the Twins have three potential guys who can DH when the time happens, or play a position on the field. Sadly, Cruz is strict DH. Although it would be nice to follow him on his remaining two-year run to reach 500 home runs, sadly the Twins can probably do without him - unless they decide to move any or Sano (replaced by Kirilloff), Donaldson (replaced by Miranda), and Garver. Heck, I say move all three and hope you get a closer and a strong candidate for the top of the rotation, and bring back Cruz. If the Twins do tank again, someone will take Nelson off your hands yet again for a couple of dynamite prospects.

I was disappointed in the Twins bot getting Balazovic to the majors, and NOT having a looksee at Strotman. They allowed Barnes and Jax to flounder, so much so many of us naysayers wonder why they would hold a 40-man spot, then we go back and look at the numbers of names like Perkins, Hawkins, Eddie G, even Vila when they first came north to Twinsland. Even if the Twins wave a blank check in front of the top arms, I suspect none of them would come to Minnesota if they get massive offers elsewhere. So, the Twins have to explore a trade.

Or maybe they will get lucky on a Rule 5 choice (sic).

12 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Wait a minute folks. Simmons had the 6th highest fielding percentage in the American league at SS in 2021. . He made some awesome plays at SS. He also made some heads up plays at SS. However his batting was pathetic. His swings looked like my high school teammates.  I don't want him back either, but my reasons have nothing todo with his fielding percentage. 

THis is what I was thinking on Simmons too.  His defense is fine.  I expected him to lose a half step in the field.  I did not expect his offense to crater.  His offense was historically bad.  I was thinking of an ops in the .660 - .720 range.  He was well below that even.  I figured he would get pinch hit for at times or maybe lose a few starts in the field and be the late inning defensive replacement during some offensive slumps and be the #9 hitter.  but again I thought he will hit significantly better even if that meant he was still a below average hitter.

I will be honest though.  I would be ok with bringing him back on a low cost with incentives deal if we do not sign a high profile high offensive SS over the winter.  Maybe 5 million guarantee with up to 5 million more with so many plate appearances.  1 that means we signed Buxton to an extension and 2 it means the Twins are planning on 1 of Lewis or Martin to take over SS when ready.

6 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Starters getting pulled in the 6th is pretty much par for the course now.  The Twins aren't doing anything the rest of the league isn't doing as well.  That's just the modern game and how they protect arms.

Nice article - I agree strongly on Simmons.  He was a putrid offensive player whose one calling card is no longer elite, just good.  You can find "good" shortstops that aren't slap-hitting .500 OPS guys.  You damn sure don't have to pay them 10M and bring a bunch of other issues along with them.

The team has too many no-field hitters as is.  As much as I love Nellie, this team isn't the right fit for him.  They'll need to look for leadership inside the current locker room.

47 games pitched by prospects that did not pitch in a season the year before. Oakland used 5 starters for most of the season. Surprise!!!!!!! They lead the major league  in starting pitcher IP. 

Look at Simmons' WAR in the field and it's clear to me that we got more or less what we wanted. At the plate, he was a disaster. He struck out quite often in key situations where if he at least made contact, it would have helped. 

If it means putting Polanco at SS, then, I would rather re-sign Simmons... having a minus WAR at SS does not bode well for the team.

Any money spent on bringing Cruz back would be worth it.  He can hit and is a great presence for the team overall.   They can afford him and should not cheap out.   Many people like exciting players and don't look at numbers.  He is an exciting player as is Sano, Polanco and maybe Donaldson.  The new AAA guys should be brought up so we non-stat fans can get to know them and get excited again.  

I did not mention Buxton.  I think it would be a fatal error to ticket sales to trade him this off-season but at next season's trade deadline they will need to trade him.  Unless a miracle happens I think the will be gone.  They may up what they offered before but they won't go as high as needed and cannot afford to wait until the 2022 off season and let him walk.  Oh such a dilema, we waited so long for Berrios and Buxton the big stars and they added Cruz and Donaldson to make it even more exciting but sadly it did not happen and now Berrios is gone.  

5 hours ago, old nurse said:

47 games pitched by prospects that did not pitch in a season the year before. Oakland used 5 starters for most of the season. Surprise!!!!!!! They lead the major league  in starting pitcher IP. 

The Rays have been among the lowest IP from SPs and they have 100 wins in the AL East.  They have been using this model very successfully for a while now.  I prefer SPs that can give you 7 but there is more than one way to succeed.

On pitching.  I think the starters will be able to go deeper into games next year.  I think this year the Twins decided to be cautious and limit several pitchers to 80 pitches per start as a way to manage stress on a pitchers arm after not throwing the previous year.  I also think the Tins will resign Pineda and get 1 more starting pitcher.  There are 5 starting pitchers who are top pitching prospects at AA and AAA last season.  Our rotation shapes up as:

• FA starter
• Pineda
• Ober
• Ryan
• Dobnak/ Gant

We also have Balazovich, Winder, Sands, Richardson-Woods, and Duran are all likely to be in AAA in short order if not at the start of next season.  Canterino could be in AA as well.  That is 6 starters who are knocking on the door to the majors next season.  

And Maeda will be back at some point after the all star break.  So there needs to be some opportunity available to the younger starters to get a spot in the rotation next season.  

As far as Cruz goes,  I am on board with bringing him back on next season.  I do think he will regress at some point.  And if it is next year, we have plenty of options to give him rest so we can set him up with good match ups.  I also think his power will age well regardless.  so lets see what happens next season.  I would like to see him hit number 500 with the Twins.  I also want him to reach over 100 of them as a Twin too.  He is about 2 seasons away from being a border line hall of famer.  Would like to see if he can set himself up to be a worthy candidate.  

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

The Rays have been among the lowest IP from SPs and they have 100 wins in the AL East.  They have been using this model very successfully for a while now.  I prefer SPs that can give you 7 but there is more than one way to succeed.

Tampa was the only team to have success with that model. Boston was mediocre but not in the bottom 1/3. Tampa was also the only team to succeed with a low payroll. It is an outlier mode;

Levi commented on the low IP as a Baldelli managing style. That was not quite true. This year he had to manage with what he had without blowing out arms in the future as so many had not pitched in games

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Tampa was the only team to have success with that model. Boston was mediocre but not in the bottom 1/3. Tampa was also the only team to succeed with a low payroll. It is an outlier mode;

Levi commented on the low IP as a Baldelli managing style. That was not quite true. This year he had to manage with what he had without blowing out arms in the future as so many had not pitched in games

This is difficult to assess.  It appears to me it's a conscious plan with Tampa.  Do these other teams have low IPs from their starters because they are simply bad?  Has Tampa found a market inefficiency in SPs that don't excel when expected to go 6 plus but are good the 1st couple times through the order.  Have they adapted strategies and pitching sequences to succeed with this type of pitcher?  Jax appears to be this type of SP to me.  I think he would do better in the BP or in a stacking concept.

There's a good chance Simmons will be one of the three finalists for the AL Gold Glove in 2021. He won't win it, but being a finalist in an age where metrics are used instead of the eye test means he was pretty rad on defense.

I still think as a backup, short-side platoon SS, he would be an asset. His numbers against LHP are quite respectable, and with the glove, would make him a valuable asset when used correctly. I just think he's going to want to start somewhere.

I think people have pretty well covered the Simmons issue, lol. (I'm in agreement: his defense was worth, his offense was too putrid to be allowed near a twins lineup again, etc)

I'm a 100% no on signing Cruz, much as I loved him as a player here. Age is undefeated. Eventually it gets all of us, and as special as Cruz is, he's going to hit that wall too and I'd rather not be holding the bag when it does since he's already off the team (and we got spectacular value for him). We've got plenty of guys worth rotating through the DH spot, so I'd rather keep it open to ensure that someone like Arraez has a spot to hit in, Donaldson can take a break without losing us his bat, Kirilloff can take some reps at 1B without Sano being forced to take a seat, etc. Better chances of keeping some of these hitters healthy and productive, while still giving opportunities to young guys like Miranda too. Beyond that, he's going to command $10M if the NL adds the DH easily, and I'd rather spend that on pitching/SS.

I loved the Boomstick. Great guy, great signing, great player...but this would sadly be a reunion that i think would end in tears rather than cheers.