My Take On The Twins' Byron Buxton Conundrum

The enigma is why the Twins waited so long to extend and lock up this talent.  Everyone sees it, we know it is special, we have no CF to replace him at this point.  Since losing Kirby we have had a long list of good CF all of whom we traded, maybe we should keep one.  I am not a money guy and prices make no sense to me, but MLB has created its own economy and the team needs to work within it.  We still have a need for a strong C/SS/CF to defend and compete.  Without Buxton we have only one of the positions filled at this time.  Give us a Thanksgiving present - sign Buxton so we can go on and anguish over SS and SP!

Remember if you trade Buxton for prospects, which are an unsure thing, you are trading an unsure thing for them. Basically with Buck you have a 50/50 chance of playing Buxton, or Jake Cave, a fourth OF carried for insurance. I like Buxton, and have always believed in his talent even when he struggled, but since everyone uses stats on this site, here’s a stat: he only plays half the time. I am not sure if Cave and the other fill ins have a negative War or whatever you call it, but it should be subtracted from Buxton for the the CF value.

Signing Buxton to see him play is one thing, signing him to win is another. As good as Buxton is he won’t make a team a winner that has two? SP, and basically no SS. Mike Trout can’t move the Angels, and they don’t have near the problems the Twins have. I like Buxton, you want to sign him so we can maybe watch him play fine I am good with that. If you are signing him to make the organization better in the long run, then it’s a mistake. 

If true, a 20 million gap over 7 years is absurd for the Twins to balk at.  If you're already at 80 the extra 20 for a shot at this level of talent is a no brainer.  How many millions have we watched them throw at dumpster talent in the hope that they will have a turn around year?  Yet they seemingly won't budge for Buxton.

It's almost amusing that people bemoan the fact of trading Buxton for prospects.  The same people who are saying the Twins made a haul of prospects on the Berrios trade are worried they will only get prospects for Buxton.  Remember prospects are just suspects until they prove themselves at the Major league level.  In any case I believe the Twins will mess it up 

Why the Twins FO has dithered on this for so long is a question the average fan cannot answer.  Remember when we Twins fans basically had the conversation "If you had to choose between Buxton and Berrios, who would YOU choose??"  Well, it was a spirited debate but I believe the winner was Buxton.  It wasn't "massively" in favor of Buxton, but he WAS the player most here on TD would have chosen.  And this was with our starting rotation in a total shambles.  The reason Buxton won out was because his talent (when healthy) is top 10 in baseball.  Berrios was no where near a top 10 pitcher.  So the Twins "appeared" to make their choice and traded Berrios to Toronto for two very nice looking prospects.  I believed the trade was a good one at the time and I still do.  Time may prove me wrong, but Martin and Woods-Richardson could be outstanding players for the Twins in the future.  Now however, the Twins FO seems to be stumbling and bumbling with what that strategy was supposed to be.  As fans, we still have no idea how they and the Pohlad's view this team for 2022.  There is nothing close to a "clear vision" coming out of the ivory towers of Twins leadership and I'm not sure ownership or the FO sees that for the problem it is.  We play in the A.L. Central.  There is no reason, given the talent still on the team and the resources that could be leveraged, that the Twins SHOULD be a contender in 2022 despite the fact that the White Sox are "ALL IN" on burying us next year and for years to come.   Buxton is the key to everything.  he's the type of player that should be the foundation of what the Twins want to be for the next 8-10 years.  He appears to be coming into his own.  You can just tell when you see him at the plate...this is a different cat than what we've seen previous.  He is confident and has a plan.  Remember when Paul Molitor kept getting hurt early in his career.  And then, he just kind of cleared that hurdle all the way to a Hall of Fame career, helping the Blue Jays to back to back World Series championships and being named World Series MVP in one of them.  I believe Buxton is going to clear that same hurdle and be relatively healthy going forward.  This ownership and FO need to step up and get this deal done.  As I mentioned earlier, the lack of clarity from both as to 2022 and their vision is dumping water on any fire there might be for 2022.  When a two time defending A.L. Central team crashes and burns to a last place divisional finish, the FO and ownership need to be correcting the flaws and making moves to get the team in a position to fire up the fanbase.  Failure to do this will ensure a disaster revenue-wise for the team next season.  Fans will continue to be soured on the commitment of ownership and the FO to not only provide a good team/good product but to keep good, homegrown talent on the roster.  And wasn't that the entire premise of building Target Field anyway ??

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

The enigma is why the Twins waited so long to extend and lock up this talent.  Everyone sees it, we know it is special, we have no CF to replace him at this point.  Since losing Kirby we have had a long list of good CF all of whom we traded, maybe we should keep one.  I am not a money guy and prices make no sense to me, but MLB has created its own economy and the team needs to work within it.  We still have a need for a strong C/SS/CF to defend and compete.  Without Buxton we have only one of the positions filled at this time.  Give us a Thanksgiving present - sign Buxton so we can go on and anguish over SS and SP!

If we toss out Buxton's first season when he had wRC+ of 5 and look at the next 3 seasons, he had a wRC+ of 86 / 92 & -2.  Buxton played in exactly one-third of the games played.  Is it at all puzzling the team did not extend early on?  It would have been great if they had because it probably would have been a great deal.  Would Buxton have signed the type of deal his performance to that point would have merited?  IDK but it's not hard to understand why the Twins did not extend him early on like an Azuna or most recently Wander Franco.  If they were going to get it done the time was probably after the 2019 season.  However, he once again played in only 87 games.  It's not surprising they were reluctant to bet big at that point and it would not be surprising that Buxton would not sign when he had the opportunity to greatly improve his value.  I guess what I am saying is that this situation is not exactly an enigma.

The situation is rediculous can the Twins really trade Buxton and get a better return.  If they do get a great return will they ever pay that person.  I'm feeling a bit disgruntled as a Twin fan lately and I'm not sure I want to be on this develop but don't pay merry go round.  Please sign Buck!

Byron Buxton, injuries and all, is an exceedingly rare talent who can impact the outcome of a MLB game in myriad ways.

Just how many current and future Buxtons do the Twins think they have? 

Here is a hint for the Front Office: Less than 2 and more than zero.

Sign Buxton!

This whole topic has me wondering what the point is to MLB.  Is it for the owners to make money?  Is it for the players to make money?   If the Twins have a payroll of $130M,  how much money are they making?  I doubt like hell that they are losing any money.  What if they were to raise their payroll to $180M?  Would they then be losing money?   I doubt that too.  How much have MLB team values increased over the last half dozen years?   Money recouped.   So,  what is the point of MLB?  I think it should be to win the world series.  "Every year".  That should be the goal.   You try to sign the best players,  which makes your product more desirable,  which makes the fans want to spend more of their entertainment money on it.  This is what the Yankees do.  Yes, they have more money to spend due to market size,  but they try to win the WS every year.  Again,  I doubt like heck that any MLB team is losing money.  So, 'my point', sign Buxton, cuz he is a great player.  The Yankees would sign him.  Also spend some of those billions of dollars to sign some more of the top players.  Try to win the World Series.  Hey, if you try and it don't work out, well that should be the norm.  At least you tried.  But hey,  I don't really believe that is the Twins goal.

Carl and his offspring adhere to the Fred Flintstone philosophy of BUSINESS

"Your only friend's a buck and the more bucks you've got, the more friends you've got"

Contrary to the belief that:

"You've got to spend money to make money"

This season I saw Buck beat out a GB, stole 2B, advanced to 3B on a FO and inspirationally scored on another FO. Those actions of small ball sparked a win for the Twins. A very small % of MLB players would have even made to 1B let alone went around the bases to score. Buck makes the difficult plays look easy so FO can't see it while others make easy plays look difficult and FO falls all over them. He impacts the game in every aspect both on the field and off.

We won't get anything in trade because every team thinks that this FO are idiots that they have no idea what a gem they have so they'll lowball them with worthless prospects (pretty much like the Dutch did to the Indians, trading NY for trinkets).  Get rid of this FO and find some one who can get this done pronto.

Have a question that is unrelated to Buxton, however, related to a comment in your piece.

Why do most people often comment that the Twins have only two pitchers in their tentative starting rotation for 2022, Ober and Ryan?  Why aren't they saying thee, including Randy Dobnak?

Doesn't Dobnak have more starts, ie, more experience, than either of them?  Granted, he wasn't healthy in 2021 and the results weren't satisfactory, but when healthy previously he was an effective starter.  We don't know what the Twins plans for 2022 are, however, I suspect they may include Dobnak along side the other two as potential starters next spring.

1 hour ago, GNess said:

Byron Buxton, injuries and all, is an exceedingly rare talent who can impact the outcome of a MLB game in myriad ways.

Just how many current and future Buxtons do the Twins think they have? 

Here is a hint for the Front Office: Less than 2 and more than zero.

Sign Buxton!

I agree. I also believe it is far more likely that Buxton will figure out how to stay healthy than trading Buxton will bring in someone of comparable talent.

Buxton is going into his age 28 (8th) season and has exactly 1+ exceptionally productive combined campaigns under his belt (2017 and 2020). He has only 6 AB's in post season play .125 with 4 K's). His career slash: .248/.299/.761. He has never seriously contended for MVP in any season because his offensive stats haven't been at all star level for most of his career, he doesn't draw walks, steal bases, or get on base enough to make a difference. The guy drafted 1 spot ahead of him also joined the league in 2015 and is grossly underpaid at $11.7 mil. Carlos Correa has also missed games pretty much every year like Buxton (albeit far fewer) but is a big-game legend already. Top 10 all-time (of 22,000+ players) in RBI's, HR's and WPA in the post-season. Yes, different positions and waaaay different teams but only one of the two has truly made a name for himself. I find it fascinating that Buxton is the only player in baseball garnering as much praise as he gets with such paltry career offensive production. If I were him, I'd pledge to give the team at least 2 FULL seasons of all-star caliber play before making contract demands. 

Is there any other example of a guy playing in only half of his teams games over his career hitting under .250 with an OBP 20+ points below league average, zero 20+ HR seasons, zero 70+ runs/RBI campaigns, more K's than RBI's, runs, and stolen bases combined, one 100+ games played/season, and half the WAR of a guy entering the league at the same time and drafted in practically the same spot who rejected a contract worth $80 mil +incentives? 

Defense is definitely worth consideration but you have to make roll call every day to use this as your bargaining tool. Buxton's speed trumps his smoothness and ball tracking- particularly deep balls where he has a habit of misreading and turning up the jets to recover only to crash test dummy with the wall. He's still got the wheels to make zero probability snags but playing at least 85% of your teams games for ONE season is just as impressive as the catches. 

What the Twins offered makes sense. You already overpaid Donaldson, who absolutely killed it as the FOURTH best player on Atlanta in 2019. As for Buxton, well, as famously quoted "the most important ability is availability". Show up. Get paid. Take the deal.

If we're trying to predict what will happen, I'd like to sum it up.  Falvey...Cleveland...Francisco Lindor.  

6 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

It's almost amusing that people bemoan the fact of trading Buxton for prospects.  The same people who are saying the Twins made a haul of prospects on the Berrios trade are worried they will only get prospects for Buxton.  Remember prospects are just suspects until they prove themselves at the Major league level.  In any case I believe the Twins will mess it up 

Players to any level of play is suspect until they prove it over and over again. Kepler looked all world in 2019. It is suspect if he will ever do it again. Buxton is suspect to being able to play a full season. 

45 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

If we're trying to predict what will happen, I'd like to sum it up.  Falvey...Cleveland...Francisco Lindor.  

Falvey is responsible for how The Guardians spend their money?  Falvey makes the trades for the Guardians? Falvey needed a shortstop and couldn't work his connections to get Lindor? Holy guessing game. Falvey did not trade Buxton at peak value, much like Cleveland did with Lindor?

Buck's swing is now a compact and readily reproducible thing of beauty. He can and will get paid a lot on the open market. He and his agent most certainly understand this. It is amazing how many people still believe what people tell them. Buck would not sign an extension unless it is guaranteed money and more than his people think he would get on the open market. The decision now is whether to trade or get another cheap year out of him. Given the fact that we are missing an entire starting rotation, I think it is safe to say that we will not be competing for the WS next year and therefore should trade him.  

But hey, if it feels better to believe what people say above logic and actions, enjoy!

Sadly, we're going to be sitting here 15 months from now and Buxton will be elsewhere and he and Berrios will have signed new deals elsewhere for a combined amount less than Carlos Corea will be playing for and we'll be "hoping" for prospects to pan out.

8 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

If we toss out Buxton's first season when he had wRC+ of 5 and look at the next 3 seasons, he had a wRC+ of 86 / 92 & -2.  Buxton played in exactly one-third of the games played.  Is it at all puzzling the team did not extend early on?  It would have been great if they had because it probably would have been a great deal.  Would Buxton have signed the type of deal his performance to that point would have merited?  IDK but it's not hard to understand why the Twins did not extend him early on like an Azuna or most recently Wander Franco.  If they were going to get it done the time was probably after the 2019 season.  However, he once again played in only 87 games.  It's not surprising they were reluctant to bet big at that point and it would not be surprising that Buxton would not sign when he had the opportunity to greatly improve his value.  I guess what I am saying is that this situation is not exactly an enigma.

Back then the extension would not have been as long, but it also would not have cost as much.

3 hours ago, Platoon said:

 

 

 

Mike Trout can’t move the Angels, and they don’t have near the problems the Twins have. I like Buxton, you want to sign him so we can maybe watch him play fine I am good with that. If you are signing him to make the organization better in the long run, then it’s a mistake. 

Sign Buck to watch him play and take a chance that he stays healthy. The proposed contract is already at a discounted value based  upon his health. If it were not, he'd be worth 20 million  per year.

8 hours ago, cHawk said:

The difference with Berrios is he clearly expressed he had no interest in remaining with the Twins. Buxton has expressed he wants to remain with the Twins. Big difference there.

I hope you are right about Buck wanting to stay a Twin.

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Back then the extension would not have been as long, but it also would not have cost as much.

I agree it would have turned out great had they signed him.  Would Buxton have signed a modest deal given his potential?  He also was a number 9 hitter that did not do much to indicate he was going to be a great offensive player.  So, I am by no means saying it would not have been a good idea.  Just saying it's not surprising either side might not  had been inclined much less both sides. 

Minnesota has a chance to have 1 superstar on each of its pro teams. Jefferson on the Vikings, ANT for the wolves, and BUCK for the twins. I could add Kaprizov with the wild. I believe every team needs that star power for the joy of looking forward to watching that player. I know I watch the twins game because I can’t wait to see him play. Each game he seems to make a run saving catch,or get a big hit. For myself and I imagine thousands of other Buxton fans, if he’s traded there will be no reason to go to the games or even watch them on tv. Please don’t let this one get away.

Should the Twins wish to sign Buxton, clauses in the contract such as "opt out" and "performance incentives" can be structured in such a way as to reach a contract acceptable to both sides.

The fact that an agreement has not yet taken place indicates that Buxton will soon be gone from the Twins.  That being the case,the Twins need to be both proactive and aggressive in identifying trade partners.  This organization cannot revert to the Ryan philosophy of just fielding offers.  The Twins need to identify the SPECIFIC players they want in return and find a way of putting together a trade that lands them that talent.  That includes an area in which the Twins have been deficient in over the years = multi team trades.