Ranking the Top 5 Most Likely Trade Chips for the Twins

I don't think it would be a wise move for the Twins to trade Sonny Gray this winter. That would send a terrible message to the rest of the team. 

Two comments. 1. I just do not understand the lack of love for Gordon on this site. He might not have a roster spot in ‘23? Seriously? After Buxton he is our best all around outfielder - which means most of the time he’s our best all around outfielder. Until he is unseated by Larnach, Kiriloff or Wallner, he should be starting five games a week. And if Buxton is hurt, he’s probably our best bet at an everyday CF. Celestino? Please. Gordon is a legit major leaguer who has not peaked yet.  He’s absolutely part of the solution going forward.

2. Polanco was not mentioned. He’s probably our most valuable trade prospect. But with CC coming back, he’s probably off the table. Same with Gray - no chance he gets moved at this point.

The FO is probably all in until the deadline on Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Polanco, Farmer and Gallo (sadly). The question is whom (outside of Kepler) do we move and when to grab one more starter to hedge the IP risk of the three veteran starters. It could be the FO waits to see how the overall staff looks coming out of ST and what kind of start the team has in the first six or so weeks of the season.

Add to that list pagain, paddock and dobnack. Have little faith they will both stay healthy or perform at high levels. They may not have great value , but will be ok ad ONS to deals. And open up our 40 man roster.

I'm not sure that Kepler is automatically considered a trade just because of the Gallo signing. With Larnach and Kirilloff as question marks going into the season I could see Rocco using an outfield of Gallo, Buxton and Kepler on opening day. Should he be traded, yes, but his return would be minimal and unfortunately if Gallo is his replacement the hole in the lineup will only be bigger. The Gallo signing has got to be one of the worst in Twins history. The guy just can't hit. As for trading Arraez, Why sign Correa if you are going to trade away your best hitter? It doesn't make sense. Same can be said for Gray, he's the closest thing they have to an Ace. Yeah get rid of your best pitcher too. Unless the haul in return is terrific I don't trade either of those guys. You don't get better in the short-term by trading away your best players, which with the Correa signing, I don't see the FO looking long-term but now going all-in for the here and now. I think they'll be more inclined to trade away more young players and prospects now.

I get everyone keeps saying Kepler as most likely. But I'd say Arraez is the most likely right now. Kep has little to no trade value right now. Arraez may never have this much trade value again. If they are looking for a difference maker it will cost someone like Arraez  ++

Here we go, another article talking about trading half the team.  Signing Correa looks to me like the final move for position players.  Could see them signing a free agent reliever, but I really expect the Twins are about set for spring training.

Do one of the moves you talk about above happen, maybe.  But I would expect it to be in July after they have a lot more information about how our guys are playing this year and what the team needs for the final push for the playoffs.

I don't think they have a glut of infielders. Farmer is insurance if Miranda can't lock down 3rd and can also play SS if needed. I view Gordon more as an outfielder, but certainly he brings a lot of valuable versatility.

I love Nick Gordon as much as the next guy, but this leadership clearly does not want to put him at SS. Especially for an extended period of time. This is why I think they would lean to keeping Farmer over Gordon. 

I think Kep is as good as gone, even if they end up trading him just for a ML arm. 

Arraez will get you the most value. I think he should be moved. A position-less, high average hitter is not as valuable as it looks watching on Ballys.

I think Farmer and Gordon can coexist on the roster. Farmer becomes a platoon with Kepler and we put Farmer in the infield and slide someone else into the corner OF. Just make Farmer be what Garlick was last year 

I think the idea behind this article is not simply to trade some players, but if we are going to add the new pieces to improve our team these are the most likely candidates.

Taken with that thought it mind, you will have to give something up to get something.

I don't see us finding a piece, (PITCHER, PITCHER, PITCHER), that will improve this team.

For something smaller, RH hitting OF I don't think we swap any of these.

For Lopez, not trading Gray for sure.  I don't feel at this point Lopez improves our team this year.  I understand the under-control aspect vs Gray/Maeda.  

 

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Two comments. 1. I just do not understand the lack of love for Gordon on this site. He might not have a roster spot in ‘23? Seriously? After Buxton he is our best all around outfielder - which means most of the time he’s our best all around outfielder. Until he is unseated by Larnach, Kiriloff or Wallner, he should be starting five games a week. And if Buxton is hurt, he’s probably our best bet at an everyday CF. Celestino? Please. Gordon is a legit major leaguer who has not peaked yet.  He’s absolutely part of the solution going forward.

2. Polanco was not mentioned. He’s probably our most valuable trade prospect. But with CC coming back, he’s probably off the table. Same with Gray - no chance he gets moved at this point.

The FO is probably all in until the deadline on Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Polanco, Farmer and Gallo (sadly). The question is whom (outside of Kepler) do we move and when to grab one more starter to hedge the IP risk of the three veteran starters. It could be the FO waits to see how the overall staff looks coming out of ST and what kind of start the team has in the first six or so weeks of the season.

Agree on Gordon. One of my favorites.

I could see them trading Kepler and Larnach.  Kepler because he is redundant and Wallner could fill that spot if necessary. Larnach because I believe he has the most Value after Kepler.  He was solid in left defensively and the bat looked very promising until he got hurt.  I don't think Kirilloff has much value at this time because that wrist injury could be the end for him I doubt another team wants to take on that risk.  Celestino is one of the few right handed outfield bats and he doesn't appear to have much power.  Probably more valuable to Twins than someone else.  His bat got so bad mid season we all want him starting in AAA this year.

The tough one for me right now is Arraez.  This team could use his discerning eye at the plate and ability to get on base but long term he is the odd man out.  Seems more prudent to see how this team performs and make a decision at the deadline as he could be an important part of the lineup.  That being said if he could fetch a difference making arm then they might need that more as I see needed games off for Gray, Mahle and Maeda. 

Trading Gray seems like it would be an odd move.  They went all in to get this team to this point subtracting him makes no sense IMO. 

I don't think they have to get rid of any utility guys at this time.  If Gordon is considered an outfielder then they have about  right number on the 40 man.

Other than Kepler and possibly Larnach it seems like they have time to wait before clearing things out for the infield or outfield.  Still lot's of questions on Jullien, Lewis, Lee, Wallner, Martin and arms Varland and SWR.  Kirlloffs wrist and Larnach still hasn't completely proven himself.  They get two 40 man spots back around spring training when Canterino and Paddack go on the injured list so there will be room to add yet.

I am not convinced they will do a big trade but most years they do seem to get something done around spring training.so we will see.

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Two comments. 1. I just do not understand the lack of love for Gordon on this site. He might not have a roster spot in ‘23? Seriously? After Buxton he is our best all around outfielder - which means most of the time he’s our best all around outfielder. Until he is unseated by Larnach, Kiriloff or Wallner, he should be starting five games a week. And if Buxton is hurt, he’s probably our best bet at an everyday CF. Celestino? Please. Gordon is a legit major leaguer who has not peaked yet.  He’s absolutely part of the solution going forward.

2. Polanco was not mentioned. He’s probably our most valuable trade prospect. But with CC coming back, he’s probably off the table. Same with Gray - no chance he gets moved at this point.

The FO is probably all in until the deadline on Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Polanco, Farmer and Gallo (sadly). The question is whom (outside of Kepler) do we move and when to grab one more starter to hedge the IP risk of the three veteran starters. It could be the FO waits to see how the overall staff looks coming out of ST and what kind of start the team has in the first six or so weeks of the season.

This. I strongly disagree with the idea that now that we have Farmer, there is only room for one of Farmer or Gordon on the roster. I think Gordon is now an OF who can play CF as a reserve and who can play in the IF , including SS, if necessary. He versatile, of starting MLB quality if he can repeat last year, and he stays. The OFs on the bubble are Kepler (agree will be traded) and Larnach, Celestino and Wallner. Only one of those last three can stay at best and that's IF Kepler is traded. I think the better play is to sign a RH hitting OF to replace Garlick and platoon with Gordon in LF/DH/1B for this year (Mancini maybe?) and make those latter 3 the starting AAA OF in LF, CF, and RF respectively. Alternatively, we can put Larnach or Wallner is a trade package for a quality SP. Kepler alone won't get us close to that. . 

The pieces fit as we have them now. Gordon will be on the opening day roster with Celestino , Wallner and  TL in AAA. We finally have some developmental depth and everyone wants to make a trade. Thats just not smart. We also have a glut of just above average young SP.  personally I’d rather have Chase Petty back than have Gray but thats just me. 

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Two comments. 1. I just do not understand the lack of love for Gordon on this site. He might not have a roster spot in ‘23? Seriously? After Buxton he is our best all around outfielder - which means most of the time he’s our best all around outfielder. Until he is unseated by Larnach, Kiriloff or Wallner, he should be starting five games a week. And if Buxton is hurt, he’s probably our best bet at an everyday CF. Celestino? Please. Gordon is a legit major leaguer who has not peaked yet.  He’s absolutely part of the solution going forward.

2. Polanco was not mentioned. He’s probably our most valuable trade prospect. But with CC coming back, he’s probably off the table. Same with Gray - no chance he gets moved at this point.

The FO is probably all in until the deadline on Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Polanco, Farmer and Gallo (sadly). The question is whom (outside of Kepler) do we move and when to grab one more starter to hedge the IP risk of the three veteran starters. It could be the FO waits to see how the overall staff looks coming out of ST and what kind of start the team has in the first six or so weeks of the season.

Totally agree on Gordon. What’s not to love?
 

how about a package of gray and polanco for a starting pitcher?

This is an overpay for Lopez but his market is hot right now.  A lot of teams would love to have Lopez.  The Twins have a ton of depth in their lineup which is attractive to the Marlins who lack any offense and I think it makes the most sense to trade from the depth of players that don't have a home position nor are the strongest defensive players.  

Other members of the starting staff are returning from injury, so it seems more likely for Gray to be traded over Kenta Maeda or Tyler Mahle

Saying this in the context of trade options reveals a contradiction.

If the Twins are (relatively) sure that Maeda and Mahle will come back at full strength from injury, then they have a strong and pretty well set starting five. And then they could trade Gray for some other impact player (position player or pitcher) but there are limited possibilities for such a deal to be a net gain.

If they're uncertain about how Mahle and/or Maeda will come back and that's one of the main things fueling trade speculation (which I believe is the case), then trading Gray is likely to weaken the very part of the roster they're trying to reinforce.

I would keep Sonny Gray.   Give the team the best chance at having a good season. You can always trade him a the deadline if the season isn't going well. Even if they trade for Lopez i would keep Gray. He helps us. 

11 minutes ago, TwinsGM said:

This is an overpay for Lopez but his market is hot right now.  A lot of teams would love to have Lopez.  The Twins have a ton of depth in their lineup which is attractive to the Marlins who lack any offense and I think it makes the most sense to trade from the depth of players that don't have a home position nor are the strongest defensive players.  

Id probably do something like that. 

Do not trade Arraez or Gray if you want to win this year.  They should look to trade Kepler, Farmer, Celestino, and Austin Martin and see what kind of return they can get.  Then Falvine can always reevaluate near the trade deadline and look to build for the next 5 years.  Please let some of the young guys step up and see what is there.

No reason to trade for its own sake. Correa is the best final puzzle piece. Kirilloff is a question mark until he stays healthy. Gordon is a keeper. No point playing footsies with other teams when we have what we need if all goes well.

So for those that are saying don't trade Gray. If the Twins do trade for an Ace caliber pitcher (Lopez etc). And we have these names to work with: Ace du jour, Gray, Mahle, Maede, Ryan, Ober, who is the odd man out and what do you do with them?

At the same time Winder, Varland, and Paddack can all be added to that conversation  as they are fighting for MLB spots. If you stash those 4 guys at AAA, that clogs up spots for SWR, Laweryson, etc.

So in my mind it makes sense to trade one of the MLB pitchers. Given that Mahle and Maede probably won't hold any teams interest, would you rather trade away Ryan or Ober? What type of return would you expect to get from that trade?

 

When you are determining who to trade, you have to trade high. So right now it'd be

#1 Arraez, he's not getting any higher in trade value & he's dispensable.

#2 Jeffers, his trade value has been steadily dropping we should trade him before he's worthless. He's not our future & we have no one in our system. We have to trade for a legit MLB ready catcher prospect. PIT has 2, E Rodriguez would be a great option.

#3 Wallner, He doesn't have much more upside. We have a glut of corner OF lefty bat/ 1B/ DH. I don't see him much more than DH.

#4 Gallo, a mistake that should be resolved as soon as he's available.

#5 Kepler, he shouldn't be included in a trade right away unless it's for a comeback candidate like himself (Montas or Marquez) otherwise hold onto him until his value return to normal.

We extend Gray, we keep Gordon (because he's too valuable to us), we keep Farmer until Lewis is 100%. If we need a 40 man spot, trade Pagan. Larnach & Kiriloff trade value is low, hold unto them. 

it makes no sense to trade gray even if they add a starter. right now roster resource has their rotation as gray, ryan, mahle, maeda and ober.

gray, ryan and mahle have all missed time in the last year and ober is by no means guaranteed to give you innings. who knows what maeda can provide at this point. subtracting from that group feels like a baaaaad idea

If things are going right then Gordon might be expendable in a mid-season trade for some bullpen help.  Too many health questions to outfielders at this point

Gray isn't their best starter; Mahle is. And if/when Mahle is extended (I'm putting that decision out into the ether once more) and they trade for a starter, then I would be totally fine listening on Gray. I wouldn't listen on him at all if they don't trade for a different/better starter.

Take a look at what Matt Wallner accomplished last season. In his 3rd season of professional baseball and 1st full time gig, he put up a decent average with a laudable OBP, SLG, and OPS slash line. He may just be coming into his own and while he is rough right now in the field he has a cannon for an arm and is actually very fast. It is true that Wallner needs a ton of repetitions to improve as an outfielder and he also needs to cut down on his strikeouts. He is learning quickly though and has a terrific ceiling. Wallner has improved at every level and shown an ability to adjust within an at bat. I have a feeling he can be a star if given the opportunity. 

The only way to know the best trade chips is to listen to what the other teams want. It's always easy to say we've got extra outfielders so trade one or we got too many Short stops now so let's trade one. But if the other side doesn't want them there is no trade.

I'm also questioning the wisdom of trading Gray. What has more value in this day and age than a good pitcher and if we think he doesn't have value now because he has only one year left on his contract the other teams will feel the same.

We speculate on the value of our two returning injured pitchers but we have no true way of judging whether they will be good or bad.

I have no problem with a trade I just can't speculate until I know the teams that are involved and what each needs.