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Jovani Moran is far from a Twins top prospect. He’s slowly worked his way up the system since being drafted in 2015 and will be 26 years old in 2023. He averaged just a bit above 93 mph on his fastball and lacks the nasty wipeout slider to truly dominate same handed hitters as you normally see in left handed relievers. He’s not currently an impactful part of the 2023 Twins pitching staff, but he could be.
By now we all know the deal with Jovani Moran. He walks too many hitters and his main out pitch is a changeup, making him almost more of a right handed reliever due to the pitches harsh splits against right handed hitters (.458 OPS allowed in 2022). He’s a bit of an enigma due to his lack of velocity and pitch mix that still resulted in an incredible 32.9% K rate. With being somewhat of a unicorn, can Moran continue succeeding at the MLB level if he’s given a true opportunity in 2023?
We’ve seen the worst of Moran, at times appearing to have no idea how to find the strike zone. This is easily the number one concern, as on occasion we’ve seen him walk the bases loaded and look completely uncompetitive. It’s always been a part of his game and his 11% BB rate in 2022 was a bit of a tightrope act. Consider however that that 11% rate was his best since 2019 in AA, and was a significant improvement on his 18.4% BB rate in 2021. Moran appears to have improved, and while his career has been up and down, it’s at least encouraging to see.
Some would argue that Moran’s 2.21 ERA in 2022 was unsustainable not only because of his walk rates, but because he performed much worse with a 6.00 ERA in AAA which could be the true indicator of his abilities. Consider however that the 6.00 ERA in AAA was backed up by a 3.01 FIP and 2.75 xFIP. Moran had an unsustainable 65.4 left on base % and 16.7 homer to flyball rate. While he walked more batters with the Saints, it looks like what could go wrong did. Furthermore, his 2.21 ERA with the Twins was backed up by a 2.28 xERA, 1.78 FIP, and 2.88 xFIP. These aren’t predictive stats, but looking at his ERAs in AAA and at the MLB level, it sure seems the latter was the more legitimate outcome.
It’s hard to call Moran the second lefty in the Twins bullpen, and he certainly shouldn’t be trusted in high leverage immediately. Moran has earned an opportunity to be a bullpen regular however. Any pitch with a near 50% whiff rate should immediately earn a pitcher an extended look, and Moran’s changeup has posted this mark in both of his MLB seasons. In 2022 the pitch allowed a .101/.158/.139 line, and his fastball was a great pitch as well. He also gets a decent amount of ground balls and he’s allowed just 14 homers in his entire 200+ professional innings. With such standout characteristics in his profile, Moran should easily be ahead of relievers such as Trevor Megill for low leverage spots.
This isn’t a call to make Moran a featured reliever out of the Twins bullpen in 2023. He has several elite skills however and if he can improve on his walk rate just a bit more, he’s flashed the ability to thrive in a high leverage role. Being used as he was in 2022 however will certainly not bring that possibility to fruition. As a home grown talent on a team that doesn’t invest in the bullpen, there’s simply no reason to continue bouncing him in between the majors and minors while giving fringe MLB pitchers opportunities.
2023 should bring opportunity for Jovani Moran who arguably should’ve earned more of it in 2022. If he even hits his 60th percentile, the Twins would have a unique weapon out of the bullpen and would make playing the matchups an absolute nightmare for opposing clubs. It’s time for Jovani Moran to get some respect.
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