Josh Winder Could Be THE Twins Rookie Pitcher in 2022

I would love to see him make it into the rotation.  Also Balazovic.  Can we possible get rid of the rule that makes them spend two months in the minors before they debut?  That would be one positive from the cba debates.

24 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I would love to see him make it into the rotation.  Also Balazovic.  Can we possible get rid of the rule that makes them spend two months in the minors before they debut?  That would be one positive from the cba debates.

Changing the rule would assure small and mid market teams lose top players to the top 10 markets a year earlier.  Definitely good for the players and definitely good for those top revenue markets.  Bad for parity.  Bad for the game and definitely bad for the other 20 markets and the fans of those teams.  Every team has the option to ignore the year of service time.  When they elect to keep a player in the minors the 1st 6 weeks because the short-term gain is not worth the long-term loss.   

How would this be a good outcome?  

Watched a lot of his starts on MiLB last summer.  He was dominant, leading me to believe he was the best pitcher in the organization.  Have been commenting about that since.  So glad to finally see someone else giving him some ink.  I thank you, I suspect he thanks you and I got a feeling it won't be long and the Twins will be thanking you.

Four mediocre starts in AAA and you're ready to put him in the Opening Day rotation? Let's see if he's even healthy first.

28 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Changing the rule would assure small and mid market teams lose top players to the top 10 markets a year earlier.  Definitely good for the players and definitely good for those top revenue markets.  Bad for parity.  Bad for the game and definitely bad for the other 20 markets and the fans of those teams.  Every team has the option to ignore the year of service time.  When they elect to keep a player in the minors the 1st 6 weeks because the short-term gain is not worth the long-term loss.   

How would this be a good outcome?  

 

 

I want the best players on the team from day one unless you want to say that games in April and May do not count.  If a players is good the teams extend them.  How many players do we keep until they run out of their control years?  What if the player is hurt in the minors before we get him up?  We trade, sign, cut.  No I do not want the current rule and they can address these issues in a way that the best team leaves spring training intact.  

11 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I want the best players on the team from day one unless you want to say that games in April and May do not count.  If a players is good the teams extend them.  How many players do we keep until they run out of their control years?  What if the player is hurt in the minors before we get him up?  We trade, sign, cut.  No I do not want the current rule and they can address these issues in a way that the best team leaves spring training intact.  

I agree with that, I guess the rule makes sense when you are bringing up younger prospects (20,21,22) but when the prospects are older the rule or teams keeping them in the minors seems weird, Winder is 25 for example, are teams really worried about that extra year when they are over 30?

I have read people say we should be trading Garver since he is already 31, and he won't hit FA until 2024.

Also if the poor teams really want to trade guys to get prospects, wouldn't it make sense to trade them during their prime to get better prospects in return?

Winder is another good example of why I'm not too concerned about national prospect lists largely writing off our pitchers. I don't want to give the front office too much credit until we see more results, but it really feels like they've been able to spot and tap a lot of hidden potential in deeper draft picks.

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I agree with that, I guess the rule makes sense when you are bringing up younger prospects (20,21,22) but when the prospects are older the rule or teams keeping them in the minors seems weird, Winder is 25 for example, are teams really worried about that extra year when they are over 30?

I have read people say we should be trading Garver since he is already 31, and he won't hit FA until 2024.

Also if the poor teams really want to trade guys to get prospects, wouldn't it make sense to trade them during their prime to get better prospects in return?

I would go through the list of pitchers posters here have insisted we should sign at all costs where the contracts would have started at age 30 or beyond and span 4-6 years but it would be a fair amount of work to come up with that laundry list.  Now, we should not care about keeping a pitcher in the age 31 season.  Darvish signed a 6 year deal starting his age 31 season.  Bumgarner signed for 5 years starting his age 30 season and the list of examples is very long.  Berrios has a contract starting at age 28 but that contract goes 4 seasons past his age 30 but that's good but keeping a different player past age 30 is bad?  It's really hard to follow the logic here.

The issue we will have is innings. Lots of good young arms not ready to be year long starters. Therefore, look for a number of our prospects to see the big league mound this year. 

35 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I would go through the list of pitchers posters here have insisted we should sign at all costs where the contracts would have started at age 30 or beyond and span 4-6 years but it would be a fair amount of work to come up with that laundry list.  Now, we should not care about keeping a pitcher in the age 31 season.  Darvish signed a 6 year deal starting his age 31 season.  Bumgarner signed for 5 years starting his age 30 season and the list of examples is very long.  Berrios has a contract starting at age 28 but that contract goes 4 seasons past his age 30 but that's good but keeping a different player past age 30 is bad?  It's really hard to follow the logic here.

That isn't at all what I said, Maybe follow along to what I wrote instead of projecting.

Berrios made his major league debut at 22, Bumgarner at 19, and Darvish was signed out of Japan, and was not part of the 6 years rookie control.

If teams are willing to keep an older prospect in the minors (Winder for example age 25) because they feel the need to make sure that they have him at age 32 instead of just age 31, that seems weird to me. Then I said if poor teams can't afford to sign any 31/32/33 pitcher to a expensive type contract, in theory wouldn't they get a better return for a 29/30 pitcher than a 31/32 year old pitcher?

Lets use a few pitchers as example, which pitcher do people think will cost the most in prospect capital? ( Bassitt, Montas)

Now it is not apples to apples because Montas has an extra year, so lets ask it this way which A's pitcher would return the best prospects, trading Montas (28) before this year or Bassitt (32) before last year.

Yeah there are a lot of thing to like about Winder he was in Seth's top 5 for pitchers, His WHIP was elite at under 1 so command, control and ability to get outs appears MLB ready. Even his ERA sits at a shiny 2.61. He seemed to start to have issues when he was struck by a line drive in July and he was shut down not long after. He has pretty much been money since A ball and his velocity increase in 2020.  If healthy to start the season Winder, Sands, Balazovich and Strotman have the best chance to make the rotation as they pitched enough innings and appear to have the stuff to make it.  

Given that Balazovich still seems be in search in refining a third pitch and his WHIP being at 1.41 feels like there is some work to do there.  Strotman somewhat the same deal his WHIP\control is likely the only thing holding him back  He has the pitches and the velocity the command and control need to be better.  So I agree with OP I think Winder has the best chance to push his way into the starting rotation this year.  Cole Sands could also be in the mix I just don't know how I feel about him yet as a starter.  His numbers were comparable to Winders though so he is close as well but I still think Winder gets first crack.

With likely no spring training none of those guys will have a chance to make the team to start the season so they will have time to refine their stuff before getting their chance but all four could see time at the MLB level if they stay healthy.  Given what I have seen I like Winders chances the best.

6 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah there are a lot of thing to like about Winder he was in Seth's top 5 for pitchers, His WHIP was elite at under 1 so command, control and ability to get outs appears MLB ready. Even his ERA sits at a shiny 2.61. He seemed to start to have issues when he was struck by a line drive in July and he was shut down not long after. He has pretty much been money since A ball and his velocity increase in 2020.  If healthy to start the season Winder, Sands, Balazovich and Strotman have the best chance to make the rotation as they pitched enough innings and appear to have the stuff to make it.  

Given that Balazovich still seems be in search in refining a third pitch and his WHIP being at 1.41 feels like there is some work to do there.  Strotman somewhat the same deal his WHIP\control is likely the only thing holding him back  He has the pitches and the velocity the command and control need to be better.  So I agree with OP I think Winder has the best chance to push his way into the starting rotation this year.  Cole Sands could also be in the mix I just don't know how I feel about him yet as a starter.  His numbers were comparable to Winders though so he is close as well but I still think Winder gets first crack.

With likely no spring training none of those guys will have a chance to make the team to start the season so they will have time to refine their stuff before getting their chance but all four could see time at the MLB level if they stay healthy.  Given what I have seen I like Winders chances the best.

And that is so sad, Dman., that spring training is going to be changed.  Unless they come to an agreement literally in the next few days, the start will be pushed back.  How long they keep pushing it out will determine whether the season starts on time, which is looking less likely every day.  And if it gets pushed back, do they play later into the fall, shorten the season, or what?

I agree with Nashville twin, there will be plenty of young pitchers used by Twins this year. I am high on Winder, was dominant at AA, fatigued when got to AAA. Hopefully healthy this year. I look for pitchers to be shuttled between AAA and Twins-Winder, Duran, Sands, Balazovic, Dobnak, and Strotman getting opportunities. None have built up arm to tolerate 150 IP next year. Time for these pitchers to see what they can do at MLB level. One may even be on opening day roster, but no guarantee they will stay for entire year. In response to article, WInder is my pick to have best year of pitching prospects yet to make MLB debut for Twins.

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Your assessment of the rule isn't all that accurate, though. The rule as currently written is that 172 days counts as a full year of service time. There are 187 days in the MLB year.

 

what I said was and you quoted it -

"If teams are willing to keep an older prospect in the minors (Winder for example age 25) because they feel the need to make sure that they have him at age 32 instead of just age 31, that seems weird to me'

And that is my opinion, others can certainly have their own opinion. We can debate all day how valuable having control over them the last year is, I just think it might be more important to hold back a guy to get that last year when they are 27, 28, 29, then it is when they are 31, 32, 33.

In your scenario, it would seem smart to not waste active roster spot on somebody that is going to pitch twice, which is also a different argument than keeping him down for they get an extra year at the end of his rookie deal.

We could create hypothetical all day, for example if the go to a hybrid or stacked strategy, he could pitch 5 times and have between 10- 15 innings in and the manager and FO could have a real good feel for him, but those are just hypothetical and mean nothing until the FO decides what is going to happen.

Winder has wonderful potential. He looks like he knows how to pitch and has some offerings that can get guys out at the MLB level. The real issue with Winder, and the reason he hasn't debuted yet, and why he might not start in the MLB rotation, is health. He didn't pitch after July 21 last year and only threw 72 innings.

Winder only threw 7 innings once last year. He did not exactly dominate upon promotion to AAA. I like his pitches and his makeup, and I think he could be a fine pitcher, but it's not going to be some tragedy or screw-job if he starts the season in AAA

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Four mediocre starts in AAA and you're ready to put him in the Opening Day rotation? Let's see if he's even healthy first.

He'll be fine... the talent is there.

I have seen this kid live and on TV and he has impressed me with his stuff and his poise.  I add my name to those who are looking forward to seeing him at Target Field, whether that is at the start of the season or a few weeks in.  I think one of the most exciting things in baseball is watching the debut of a young starter or position player at the major league level.  It reminds us all that this is a great game and many young men are working their tails off to get to the bigs.

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

To be fair the rules make it so they only need to keep them in the minors for 16 days, not 2 months. 2 months would be for super 2 status. But 16 days gains them an extra year. I agree it's a bad look, but for a league with the disparity in spending power like baseball has it's not too crazy to keep a guy down for 2 weeks. Especially a back end rotation guy who would make maybe 1 start in the majors in the first 2 weeks of a season.

Just wanted to add to your post.

I think we all have to realize it's not only a potential service time matter. (Which I understand but dislike). Many times it's about ramping up a young player, or pitcher in this case. Throwing intermittently early on vs staying on a routine is an issue. When someone, Winder in this situation, comes up you want them confident, on a roll, and ready to STAY up hopefully. 

Right now it's debatable between Winder and Strotman as to who is first man up considering age and innings. I think Winder is going to be very good and part of the rotation at some point in 2022. And I can't wait to see him. But he's probably not going to pitch 150+ innings this year. And we will see plenty of the young guys throughout the season. 

But Winder, or anyone, getting a couple of starts to stay on course is much more important, IMO, than a projected service time issue that is years away and may be resolved by then anyway.

Winder was highly scouted but lost velocity in his sophomore year at VMI. It resulted in him falling way down the draft ranks and the Twins picked him up in the 7th round. Most scouting reports on Winder are from draft time.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/josh-winder-comes-on-strong-at-instructs/

Since then, Winder has added 5mph to his fastball and improved his changeup due to the increased velocity alone. Plus his breaking pitches have supposedly gotten better. Winder could have 3 plus pitches at this point, and that's top of the rotation potential.

Josh Winder is officially my choice to slot in the middle of the rotation, right after Frankie Montas and Carlos Rodon and before Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan.

Now if the owners and players could get along .... 

43 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Josh Winder is officially my choice to slot in the middle of the rotation, right after Frankie Montas and Carlos Rodon and before Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan.

Now if the owners and players could get along .... 

You got that right.

Baseball America rates Winder as the Twins 6th best prospect. "His fastball  sits at 95 and touches 98. With grades of 60 for his slider and changeup, along with a 50 grade for 12-6 curveball."

Seems like pretty good stuff to follow 55 command. Considering his age and the way the seasons have turned out the past couple of years, I would prefer he uses his innings available this year for the Twins. He'll be a rookie so I would expect some failure but by the middle of the year we'll have a lot better idea.

Excellent observation tony&rodney !!!  Spend a little money.  Make a good trade.  Starting Rotation issue SOLVED !  For 2022 and beyond.  And even with this pipe dream of ours coming true, there would still be PLENTY of opportunity to get other young pitchers innings.  I guess the only thing I would change in MY pipedream, is that I would spend the FA money on Trevor Story and solve my SS problem in the short and long term.  Montas heading the rotation would be enough for me.  I'd even overpay somewhat (Arraez and MORE) to open up more AB's and playing time for Miranda and/or Martin.  

The Twins pitching prospects are really weird to me since it feels like there are so many high ceilings but each with a glaring red flag.  For Duran, Canterino, and Sands it's the health, for SWR and Strotman it's control, for Ryan and Winder it's the late breakout age, but Balazovic seems pretty clean although there could still be issues since prospects are tough. I'm hopeful since statistically we should get an ace and a couple #3s from a big group like that but we could come out empty and it's a little scary.