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The Twins find themselves in a heated hand of five-card draw. They like most of the cards they’re holding in the bullpen, but they could take a chance on trading in their last piece for a fresh one in the hopes that it complements their hand better.
There are plenty of face cards in this hand, including relief ace Jhoan Duran, veteran king Caleb Thielbar, and a young jack, or should I say Jax, rather. Other members in their relief corps such as Jorge Lopez or Jorge Alcala could find themselves in that high-value card class, but the jury is still out on if they can be counted on to be healthy and/or effective.
Still, the club could be looking to add one last card in the hopes of landing a royal flush. But is it really worth it to go for a wild card, or should the Twins stick with the hand they were dealt?
Imperfect analogies aside, the club has been tied by Darren Wolfson to veteran southpaw Brad Hand, who is coming off of a relatively successful, if uninspiring, 2022 season. Right now, the last member of the Twins’ bullpen is projected to be righty Trevor Megill, who showcased a blazing fastball in the last few months of the season but left much to be desired overall.
Adding Hand to the mix carries a possibility that he continues to outshine his peripherals, as has been the case since he transitioned to a full-time reliever in 2016. Even just last season, he had a fantastic 2.80 ERA despite having a 4.40 xERA. The expected figure is due in large part to his unspectacular 1.65 K/BB rate, an unexciting 7.3% swinging strike rate, and diminishing values on his fastball as the season wore on. But aside from the discouraging numbers under the hood, he managed to throw 45 innings of mostly unproblematic baseball in 2022. So would the Twins be wise to bring him on board with an inexpensive one-year deal?
Let’s start with the upside of such a deal. As the last few years have shown us, you can never have too many options in a relief corps. Signing Hand likely moves Megill down to Triple-A for the time being, but the Twins wouldn’t be required to drop anyone from their 40-man roster. Both Chris Paddack and Royce Lewis are now eligible to be moved to the 60-day injured list, which would remove them from the 40-man roster until reinstatement.
If Hand produces as expected, he’d be the third left-handed pitcher in the projected bullpen depth chart. Thielbar is a lock as a high-leverage option, and Jovani Moran is bound to get more time after impressing in 41 MLB innings last year. Sure, Moran has shown more success against right-handed batters thanks to his big changeup, but he’s had success against fellow lefties, as well (12 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 vs. LHH). So overall, it's not too much of a gamble just to have Hand aboard.
The downside of such a move isn’t that someone like Megill misses MLB opportunities. There are bound to be multiple injuries throughout the season and surely the big-league club will have to tap into the depth stashed in St. Paul. The downside comes from the Twins’ recent track record of giving established MLB veterans too long of a leash when their performance underwhelms. From J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker, to Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith, sometimes it feels as if the decision-makers are more concerned with hurting their reputation as a veteran-friendly organization rather than the results on the field.
Granted, sometimes that patience pays off. In 2021, Alex Colome had a brutal 8.31 ERA in April before turning things around (3.51 ERA from May 1st through the end of the season). But in that first month, the club was unable to remove him from high-leverage situations, whether due to a lack of MLB-quality replacements or an excess of confidence in Colome’s projected regression to the mean. That lack of action regarding the veteran (among other things) essentially derailed their hopes of contention by May.
After two consecutive losing seasons, the Twins can’t afford to have that same mindset with someone like Hand, especially given the fact that he would likely be their sole addition to the bullpen.
Their efforts might be better suited to give their current cards more playing time and reevaluate their needs down the line. Maybe Kenta Maeda eventually transitions to the bullpen as he approaches an inning limit in his first season post-Tommy John surgery. Perhaps someone like Megill or Ronny Henriquez emerges as a relief weapon. Maybe one of their back-end starters such as Josh Winder or Bailey Ober gets a boost from moving to a relief role.
The team is bound to have a handful of options in 2023, and they need to put their chips behind those who will find the most success rather than trying to squeeze out as much value as they can from an aging veteran.
But what do you think? Are the Twins better off sticking with the hand that they were dealt, or should they try for the Hand that's still available on the free agent market? Let us know what you think in the comments below.
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