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  • How Should the Twins Arrange the Top of the Order?


    Cody Christie

    Twins fans want to see Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, and Carlos Correa as much as possible. All three figure into the team's plans for the top of the order.

    Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

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    Leadoff Options
    So far this spring, Byron Buxton has served as the leadoff hitter in every game he has been in the line-up. This positioning may point to the team considering him for the leadoff spot, or it may be a way to get him more in-game action this spring. Buxton has started 33 games as the leadoff hitter throughout his career and posted a .315 OBP and a .514 OPS. His speed would be a clear weapon out of the leadoff spot, making him an intriguing player to feature in the leadoff role. 

    Minnesota also has other options to fill the leadoff role. Luis Arraez has the contact and on-base skills to fit the mold of a leadoff hitter. In his career, he has batted leadoff more than any other line-up spot while hitting .320/.371/.398 (.769). However, Arraez doesn't have a regular line-up spot, and his knees issues have made his running painful to watch. Last season, his sprint speed ranked in the 45th percentile, but the team may still want his bat-to-ball skills in the leadoff spot.

    Two Hole
    Coming off a season where he was team MVP, Jorge Polanco will likely continue to be used in the second spot in the line-up. He has batted second in nearly 40% of his big-league appearances, where he has hit .288/.345/.478 (.823). Last season, he accumulated double-digit steals for the second time in his career, and that may point to his ankles being healthy for the first time in multiple seasons. A healthy Buxton batting in front of Polanco can be an exciting one-two punch at the top of the line-up. 

    Polanco played over 150 games for the second time in his career last season, but there are other options for the line-up's second spot when he is given a day off. As mentioned above, Buxton and Arraez have the skills necessary to bat at the top of the line-up when Polanco sits out a game. Depending on the handiness of the pitcher, Max Kepler, a left-handed hitter, 

    Three Spot
    Carlos Correa is the highest-paid infielder in MLB history, and he needs to bat in the middle of the Twins line-up. He has made over 230 starts in the number three and four spots throughout his career. From both of these spots, his OPS is north of .820, and he hit 83 career home runs. The higher Correa bats in the order, the more at-bats he will accumulate throughout the season. Batting him lower than third in the line-up takes away from the offensive value he can be providing to the team. 

    In the past, Correa has dealt with injuries, including missing time in multiple seasons because of back issues. He has averaged more than 115 games per season, but there will be times when he isn't on the field. When that occurs, moving Buxton to the third spot allows him more opportunities to drive in the leadoff runners. Alex Kirilloff is returning from injury, but he projects to be a middle-of-the-order hitter for the Twins over the next decade. 

    Minnesota's line-up has undoubtedly taken on a different look since the lockout ended with Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver out of the equation. However, Correa adds another experienced bat that has been accustomed to connecting for big hits in the playoffs. 

    How do you think the Twins will shape the top of their line-up this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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    I actually think I would put Correa, Polanco, then Buxton due to my belief that Buxton is our best overall hitter.  He has shown he can hit for average, OBP, Power and speed.  Then Kirilloff vs. RHer's, Sano vs. LHer's.  But, I don't think it really matters cuz I think Rocco will have 50 different lineups in the first 50 games.  And it may make sense to him, but I really dislike the way he manages lineups.  And please, no more of Kepler leading off unless he can show that he can hit through the shift consistently. 

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    Lets hope the lineup talk here gets muddled with a trade for a top of the rotation pitcher.    I like all of these guys, but Larnach, Kepler, Arreaz, Sano need to considered potentially tradeable for the rotation to form an outside wildcard contender this year.     Unless we can package Gio and Sanchez with someone as well..

     

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    1 minute ago, mickster said:

    Lets hope the lineup talk here gets muddled with a trade for a top of the rotation pitcher.    I like all of these guys, but Larnach, Kepler, Arreaz, Sano need to considered potentially tradeable for the rotation to form an outside wildcard contender this year.     Unless we can package Gio and Sanchez with someone as well..

    Welcome to the site!

    If you like trade talk, feel free to share your proposals in a new topic in the Twins forum, or as a blog post.

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    Maybe I'll too old school or stubborn, but I'd sure like to have Arraez hit .300+ with and OB% ahead of some guys that can drive him in. Further, I like the idea of him generally taking 6-8 pitches so the guys behind him can see what the pitcher has got that day. So my preferred choice for #1 is Arraez as a DH/2B/3B.

    You can put Polanco, Correa, and Buxton in any order and not be wrong. I mean, I can see an arguement for Buxton as a very dangerous and productive cleanup man.

    Some don't like the speedy Buxton behind the slower Arraez. While I don't see Buxton being wild on the bases in an attempt to prevent injury, I can see his legging out a few plays he might not be able to with Arraez on base ahead of him. OK, Arraez also makes a great #2 hitter followed by Correa and Polanco in whatever order. 

    But that's my top 4.

    AK can hit, hit for power, and indont believe he's going to be intimidated by youth or overly negative against LHP, I've got him #5.

    #6 Sano: too dangerous to not be here. 

    #7 Kepler: Still good against RHP and power.

    #8 Urshela: Nice, solid hitter with pop/power. But not as dangerous as those above him?

    #9 Jeffers/Sanchez: Lots of bat potential for Jeffers, but no pressure down here as he takes over the #1 job. And I'm sorry, but I'm not putting Sanchez and his bat higher than this until I see some turn around. He's  dangerous here, but here is where he should be until he hits again.

     

     

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    I'll be the odd man here; Arraez can battle with Urshela for the 3B spot, but he doesn't need to be penciled into the lineup every day and he certainly doesn't need to take up the DH spot; there are better hitters available. He's trending downwards in every conceivable stat the last three years and he's got pretty much no extra base potential.

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    33 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

    I'll be the odd man here; Arraez can battle with Urshela for the 3B spot, but he doesn't need to be penciled into the lineup every day and he certainly doesn't need to take up the DH spot; there are better hitters available. He's trending downwards in every conceivable stat the last three years and he's got pretty much no extra base potential.

    If by being first, you're the odd one, I'll be the even one and make it two with this perspective. Arraez's career OPS+ of 113 is quite Sanchezian in nature, and only one point above Sano's "slump" year in 2021. Solid, but not worth building the lineup around.

    But Heiny's right, above, in saying this exercise is pretty moot. Last year, they didn't use a single lineup more than three times, and Rocco's never used the same lineup more than seven times in a season. Molitor is actually pretty similar in having 137 and 145 different batting orders in his last two seasons. 

     

    Also, for what it's worth, in the last 35 games of the season last year, when they were more or less at full strength, Buxton batted first or second in virtually every game he played. SImilarly, Arraez batted leadoff in the vast majority of his starts in that window of time. 

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    I would not bat Arraez ahead of #1 Buxton #2 Polanco and #3 Correa I see these top 3 take an extra base or steal. Arraez painfully never steals or takes an extra base so he'd just clog the base path for anyone who would do so.

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    I’m a bit idiosyncratic on how I think lineups should be put together. If I were in charge, I’d order it from the best to worst hitter in the starting nine. The table setter-cleanup guy relationship usually goes away after the first inning or two, and I’d want to increase the odds that my top hitters bat late in the game. My lineup would go something like this:

     

    1. Buxton-CF

    2. Correa-SS

    3. Polanco-2B

    4. Kirilloff-1B

    5. Arraez-LF

    6. Kepler-RF

    7. Sano-DH

    8. Jeffers-C

    9. Urshela/Miranda-3B

     

    Lots of debate about how the middle slots could go based on my criteria. :)

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    I remain surprised about the DH role in some opinions. The DH removes the pitcher and the "floundering" of someone specialized to anything but being a hitter, to add a bat to the lineup. So who decided the DH should be a power bat? And that has always perplexed me in regard to building a lineup.

    If you have a SPECIAL bat like Cruz or Ortiz, for example, who can't play a position, or who you don't really want to, then you plug them in to DH and find guys to hit before them. And if your team is good enough, versatile enough, deep enough, you can plug anyone in to the lineup for a half day off to fill that position.

    As the Twins are "seemingly" constructed right now, barring injury or just a bad season...forgetting injury factor because how can you predict that...LF/CF/RF/SS/2B/1B ALL project to 20+ HR production. Urshela, if he's back, projects to double digit HR totals. Jeffers, still growing and developing but with a solid/good offensive potential and Sznchez powering what he can, 3B and catcher should provide at least double digit HR totals, if not more. (3B could change depending not only on Urshela but also Miranda). By himself, in a disappointing 1st full year, Jeffers still hit 14 dangers, IIRC. Regulated to splitting time at catcher...which I hope for 1yr, Sanchez should add enough to see 20+ HR at catcher, the bottom of the order.

    What in the hell is wrong with having one of the best "hitters" and OB players on your roster being the primary DH and setting the table? I get arguements that Arraez's hitting and OB and contact skills could be valuable lower in the lineup. But he's probably amongst the best BA, and OB hitters on the roster. He makes the pitcher work. Power potential is everywhere on this roster. How about letting your DH, who also plays in the  field here and there, be a table setter to  be driven in?

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    1. Buxton CF

    2. Arreaz DH/3B/2B

    3. Polanco 2B

    4. Correa SS

    5. Kirilloff LF

    6. Sano 1B

    7. Kepler RF

    8. Jeffers/Sanchez C

    9. Miranda/Urshela 3B

     

    Give me this lineup for the majority of the season and I think we'll be fighting for a division title. I don't want Sanchez taking most of the DH plate appearances and I don't want Urshela blocking Miranda. Unless he is really struggling, Miranda needs to be given a every day MLB job. 

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    1 hour ago, justinone said:

    2. Arreaz DH/3B/2B

    6. Sano 1B

    If we're going to insist that Arraez is in the lineup I'd rather see Arraez play 1B and Sano at DH.

    Sano is an awful defensive player. They should avoid playing him in the field whenever possible. Arraez should be at least mediocre at first base.

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    I'm really surprised at how much people under-rate Sano around here. I know he has not lived up to hopes and dreams, but he's still a really good hitter.

    He's comfortably the 4th or 5th best in wRC+ for the last few years amongst the veterans. He's projected at roughly a 114 wRC+ in 2022, pending on your flavor of system. That trails only Buxton, Polanco, and Correa in projections.

    He should be the 4 or 5 batter on opening day, especially being that they will be facing a LHP.

    Kepler, Sanchez, Urshela, Jeffers...you gotta be high, drunk, spun, something, to think they should be batting higher than Sano. Thank god Baldelli is sober when he's writing out the lineup because the proposals I'm seeing here would make me question what the team is doing.

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    5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

    If we're going to insist that Arraez is in the lineup I'd rather see Arraez play 1B and Sano at DH.

    Sano is an awful defensive player. They should avoid playing him in the field whenever possible. Arraez should be at least mediocre at first base.

    This is the Sano crux. I want him batting 4 or 5 in this lineup, but I would rather it be as the DH. His defense gives back about 100% of his impressive offensive production.

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    6 hours ago, justinone said:

     

     

    Give me this lineup for the majority of the season and I think we'll be fighting for a division title. I don't want Sanchez taking most of the DH plate appearances and I don't want Urshela blocking Miranda. Unless he is really struggling, Miranda needs to be given a every day MLB job. 

    If he is good enough he will, if not, he will not.

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    I like the idea of batting Arreaz in the 4 spot.  Who else could protect Carlos to start the season?  At least untill Alex is up to the task, which maybe soon but probably not to start.

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    17 hours ago, RpR said:

    If he is good enough he will, if not, he will not.

    They probably aren't even going to give Miranda a shot unless someone gets hurt. I was in favor of moving Donaldson to clear salary for a pitcher (ended up renting Correa instead) and allow Miranda to get MLB at bats. We shouldn't have taken back Urshela when Miranda and Arráez could handle third just fine.

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