How Long Can the Twins Keep Their Window of Opportunity Open?

I honestly don't see why their "window" can't stay open.  The core is still pretty young in baseball years and reinforcements seem to be on the way in guys like Kiriloff, Larnach, Lewis, Duran, Balezovic, etc..  Berrios is only 26.  The FO has shown an ability to build a bullpen and make shrewd moves (Maeda trade, signing PIneda while he was recovering from TJ, etc.).  The Pohlads have shown a willingness to allow the FO to spend when they see fit (Donaldson, Cruz, Simmons, Colome, Berrios extension?).  I think the next several years are going to be a lot of fun.

It will stay open as long as Pohlad supplies the money and the dynamic duo doesn't make any more bonehead moves like they did in 2018.

Since Kirilloff and the college hitters look like sure MLB regulars, it will all depend on how the pitching prospects turn out.

 

If 2 of Duran, Balazovic, Canterino, and Winder hit, the team will be fine.

 

What's more of a hot take however: they may need to trade Berrios after the 2021 season.

 

If you want to extend windows you need to maximize return on everybody, so if Berrios doesn't sign an extension with the team and they're not ready to give him $100 million after 2022, they should trade him to maximize return. That would hurt a whole lot less if Duran proves himself this season.

I don't really see the appeal of speaking in generalities when the specifics are readily available. In any case, the Twins strategy is clearly to keep the window open indefinitely, which is the Cleveland approach.

It's very hard for a small market team to compete for the World Series year after year. When the core hits FA, it's very hard to keep them all. It's not fair that the big market teams can throw big money at players and don't even worry about the luxury tax because they can afford it. But that's a different subject. Can we compete against LAD? Our hope is that we can but it'd be a miracle. We have done it before.

Should we go for all the marbles? If we have all our bases covered,I'd say yes!

 

It will stay open as long as Pohlad supplies the money and the dynamic duo doesn't make any more bonehead moves like they did in 2018.

 

What "bonehead" moves did they make it 2018?

Tampa Bay and Oakland have shown that lower-revenue teams can stay competitive enough consistently enough to challenge for the postseason almost every year. We can also do it with the right scouting and player development people, but it certainly would help to have a better revenue sharing program in place.

I like what the front is doing. They signed Donaldson to a big contract to hold down third base. I see possibilities in the system when Donaldson moves away from the bag in (hopefully) two years. They signed starting pitchers as a stopgap before prospects move up this season (and subsequent ones). The question remains the need to keep Berrios and for how much.

 

They should've gotten something for Rosario, sadly. Losing him because of arbitration is a somewhat loss, but you do have replacements that need to play in Rooker and Kirilloff. The Twins have also signed temporary emergency stopgaps if need be.

 

Next is Larnach. So this is the year Buxton and Kepler need to shine to stay with the Twins. Celestino is also someone I want to see.

 

The Twins signed a Royce Lewis stopgap, but there is no doubt that it is time for Royce to shine in the minors to break into the lineup this season.

 

The Twins have two young catchers. Plus a couple of prospects in the system.

 

The system is loaded with arms.

 

Sadly they still play like all they need to do is win the division. AT some point they have to pull the big mid-season trade to go all-the-way. But I think the system is quite rich with tradebait names that may or may not pan out. It sure hurt NOT to have a 2020 minor league season.

 

Injuries are always the key to success. The Twins do seem to have depth pretty much everywhere with replaceable parts.

For small market teams they need to decided are they going to push all in like KC did, or are they looking to stay a winning team for years but never have one of the best teams to make push in playoffs, similar to what they did in 2000's and what Oakland has done for decades. 

 

Personally, I am a fan of the latter for baseball, because getting into playoffs with the best team on paper means nothing.  Just making playoffs is important and hopefully you can get hot.  So risking long term success for a little bit better chance in playoffs for a single year is not worth it to me.

 

How did Twins in 2000's and Oakland done it?  They trade players before FA years and hope their prospects pan out.  They keep reloading the farm system from trades and good scouting for drafts.  It is not the splashy sexy moves people want to see, but it is sustainable of being good for years, just maybe not great. 

 

If you want to push all in like KC and Houston did, but Houston is not small market they just were not a good team. You need years of bad teams like Twins had, hope your high picks pan out, then sign FA and make bold trades that need to pan out, but give up your big prospect pool.  You have a few years of winning but this makes those trades even more needed mid-season to fill holes because you committed to win now.  Then when they all reach FA or get old you cycle back to losing for years.

 

Big markets can try to win via FA and a few good draft picks, small markets need to hit on all FA, draft picks, and trades for most part. 

 

Since Kirilloff and the college hitters look like sure MLB regulars, it will all depend on how the pitching prospects turn out.

 

If 2 of Duran, Balazovic, Canterino, and Winder hit, the team will be fine.

 

What's more of a hot take however: they may need to trade Berrios after the 2021 season.

 

If you want to extend windows you need to maximize return on everybody, so if Berrios doesn't sign an extension with the team and they're not ready to give him $100 million after 2022, they should trade him to maximize return. That would hurt a whole lot less if Duran proves himself this season.

 

I think you hit the nail on the head. Take a look at next year’s roster construction. We have to replace 2 starters who will be free agents. I think we will see 3-4 SP prospects get a shot this year. If just one of them excels, the payroll allocated to Pineda and Happ can be reallocated to one (higher profile) SP instead of two. In other words, we can afford one of the top free agents pitchers. We are not likely to win the war for Syndergaard but there are a few others that would look good in a Twins uniform and the rotation would be well positioned for at least 3-4 years.

 

Lewis not only making it but reaching his potential is also an obvious big deal. Our middle infield should be well set and we have several good options for the corner Ifers. That’s also another $10M (Simmons) that can be reallocated. If we establish a SP and Lewis, our payroll will be around $100M assuming we don’t resign Cruz. That should leave us well positioned to add final pieces.

 

It's very hard for a small market team to compete for the World Series year after year. When the core hits FA, it's very hard to keep them all. It's not fair that the big market teams can throw big money at players and don't even worry about the luxury tax because they can afford it. But that's a different subject. Can we compete against LAD? Our hope is that we can but it'd be a miracle. We have done it before.
Should we go for all the marbles? If we have all our bases covered,I'd say yes!

 

Except the Twins are a mid-market team, which makes the KC analogy a little inaccurate. The TC media market ranks in the middle and of the pack and Target Field helps offset some of the challenges that faced the previous front office.

 

Either way, nobody can compete with LAD or NYY the way the current system is set up. I should clarify: nobody can compete spending-wise. But as NYM has shown for decades, and I suspect SD will show soon, most of the time you can't buy a championship. It's more complicated that just payroll. But of course a semi-equal payroll is helpful for equity.

 

It will stay open as long as Pohlad supplies the money and the dynamic duo doesn't make any more bonehead moves like they did in 2018.

 

Are you referring to the trades that helped build the farm system rankings that this post is partially touting?

http://Since Kirilloff and the college hitters look like sure MLB regulars, it will all depend on how the pitching prospects turn out.

 

Nicely said!  The rotation looks solid this year, but next year, look out below!  Only Maeda would be a lock to return.  The FO has had plenty of time to resign Berrios, but at this juncture, that seems unlikely.  Pineda, Happ and Shoemaker will be FA and with their ages,  perhaps only Pineda might be retained but that will greatly depend on his 2021 performance.  

This FO has emphasized position players in their 4 drafts.  Yes, they traded for Duran, but otherwise, their emphasis on offense in the draft has cast question marks on the quality of their 2022 rotation.  If Duran and Balozovic are both ready to step in next year and provide quality starts, then that would greatly alleviate the losses.  What are the odds of that happening?  I like what this FO has done to restore the Twins to a playoff caliber team, but the fact is they have not proven they can spot pitching talent and develop same into quality big leaguers.

 

Since they refrain from signing top FA pitchers, where can they turn?  Sure, they can hope their prospects turn into top starters but that's just a crap shoot, especially in an org. that has badly underperformed in developing pitchers compared to Cleveland or LA.  I know many on TD have crowned the Falvine regime to be brilliant in turning around this org., but color me still sceptical when it comes to developing arms.

 

Which is why I am so perplexed from their failure to use the trade route to acquire pitching.  What is the point of having a solid minor league system, especially a surplus of OF,  if you don't seriously engage in trade talks with rebuilding  teams having to  jettison good pitchers for future prospects?   The FO did not do anything in the offseason to add young, controllable pitching - a clear  area of weakness as soon as next year.  Nor have they shown the ability to pull the trigger at the trade deadline to add to their rotation.  By not doing so again this year, the FO is doing a disservice to a good team that will need an infusion of starters as early as next year to keep the window open.

 

http://Since Kirilloff and the college hitters look like sure MLB regulars, it will all depend on how the pitching prospects turn out.

 

Nicely said!  The rotation looks solid this year, but next year, look out below!  Only Maeda would be a lock to return.  The FO has had plenty of time to resign Berrios, but at this juncture, that seems unlikely.  Pineda, Happ and Shoemaker will be FA and with their ages,  perhaps only Pineda might be retained but that will greatly depend on his 2021 performance.  

 

This FO has emphasized position players in their 4 drafts.  Yes, they traded for Duran, but otherwise, their emphasis on offense in the draft has cast question marks on the quality of their 2022 rotation.  If Duran and Balozovic are both ready to step in next year and provide quality starts, then that would greatly alleviate the losses.  What are the odds of that happening?  I like what this FO has done to restore the Twins to a playoff caliber team, but the fact is they have not proven they can spot pitching talent and develop same into quality big leaguers.

 

 

 

Not correct. Berrios is back next year too. I like their odds of coming up with at least one starter among Duran / Balazovic / Canterino / Sands / Winder and Ober. Enlow is also not that far off. So, if just one of them succeeds we just need one good free agent SP next year. They can also easily spend the combined salary of Pineada and Happ. Another option would be to use the savings to extend Berrios. Either way, I have to disagree with your warning for next year. We are going to be in the best position we have seen in a long time if two of those SP prospects hit in the next year or year and a half.

Contention depends on the competition to some degree.  The White Sox are a younger possibly more talented version of the Twins right now with a solid 5 to 6 year core.  The Indians are going to have an elite rotation for the next 5 to six years.  If they ever get a formidable lineup in place they will be very tough to beat.  KC is well on their way back with some solid young pitching coming up and decent bats right now.  They don't have a solid core that I can see but a few trades and up and coming prospects could change that.  Detroit has a ways to go but their pitching looks close as well.  In a couple of years there core should be in place.

 

The Twins have a lot of talent right now and coming up but they will have to find a way to remain better than the rest of the division.  No easy task as now that most of the  teams in the division are ready to compete with lots of talented young cores on the way,

 

I like where the Twins are with the talent they have and the talent coming up.  I would say I am most excited about the pitching prospects we have and the FO's ability to get the most out of the arms they have in the system.  I think if they can pull off developing the pitching they need to compete, then I think they are truly set for a good long run.

 

 

 

Not correct. Berrios is back next year too. I like their odds of coming up with at least one starter among Duran / Balazovic / Canterino / Sands / Winder and Ober. Enlow is also not that far off. So, if just one of them succeeds we just need one good free agent SP next year. They can also easily spend the combined salary of Pineada and Happ. Another option would be to use the savings to extend Berrios. Either way, I have to disagree with your warning for next year. We are going to be in the best position we have seen in a long time if two of those SP prospects hit in the next year or year and a half.

 

I agree with you. I think a Berrios extension seems unlikely but they have him for two years and if he turns down the QO they should get a good draft pick for him at least.  We have never had 5 to 6 pitchers with the quality of stuff that the current group of prospects have since I started following MiLB and I doubt if they have ever had that kind of talent bubbled up to the top ever before.  I have to believe at least two of those 6 make it at some point and the rest if they don't make it should be excellent pen arms.

 

Losing the 2020 MiLB season makes it harder to determine just where these guys are at as some of it is likely just hype until proven. Also injuries can change things in a hurry but you have to consider we haven't even gotten to see the pitchers from 2019 and there could be another stud or two in that group as well that could be ready at the end of 2022 or 2023.  the cupboard is far from bare though.

 

If the Twins finally start developing the pitching they need and are able to trade older players for younger ones I think they have a ten year stretch in them.

The Twins actually seem decently positioned. Before 2019's breakout, I think most people thought the Twins were a couple years away, and that they'd be entering into their window right now. The window opened a bit earlier than expected, but that doesn't mean it will now close earlier than expected.

 

Nothing is guaranteed, but the Twins are in the enviable spot right now of having a top-half farm system while also being back-to-back division winners and a bunch of affordable contracts. Unless there are a bunch of surprising prospect busts, the Twins might sustain this success for a good stretch.

Based on our current talent and our talent pool I'd say they have only pried the window open 70% of the way with it fully open in two years.  

 

Let's wait until we get the window completely open before we try to decide how long they can keep it open ..

I’d gladly take a shorter window for a more aggressive approach in going for deep playoff runs.

 

Setting the record for most consecutive playoff losses doesn’t happen by accident. That’s where you end up with a middling approach and a refusal to part with prospects/dollars to bolster the roster.

 

I’m not ready to lump Falvine into the same category as the previous regime in the ‘00s. They’ve shown some aggression. But, I’m not yet convinced they’ll do (or be allowed to do) enough, either.

With the prospects we have and the ability to sign complimentary players, we need several prospects to pan out to keep costs down. Luckily our OF and middle IF will be low cost for the forseeable future. The one exception would be a Buxton extension. C will also be low cost. Those positions will be good through most of the decade. Also we have lots of pitching prospects and Dobnak may make it as a 4th to 5th starter as a low cost option. Others are on the way and some of those starters may make it in the pen like Rogers, Duffey, May. Keeping pen costs down seems likely. It seems we may only need to spend on a position player or 2 and 1 or 2 starting pitchers. And what I mean by spend is 10+ million per season contract. Anyway we should be good through at least 2026/ 2027. By then we will need to start seeing the next wave of talent coming up....

This is a fun exercise, but no one knows how to really stay on top forever - except the Yankees who were there all of the 50's and then spent some of Steinbrenner's cash.  But overall throwing money around does not guarantee anything either - what has Harper meant to the Phillies?  Mike Trout is the best in baseball according to the experts - but he can't even get to the playoffs with Pujols and Rendon as teammates.  

 

Darvish signed with the Cubs and then failed, will he fail or win with the Padres?  

 

Pitchers arms fail, concussions ruin careers, players like Herb Score seem destined for the HOF until their is a line drive. 

 

Plan well, but baseball is a game of failures as the cliche goes about success being able to get three hits out of ten and become a star - a 70% failure rate.  

 

I went to the Twins yearly record.  Going backward the Twins have been 1st/second 5 of the last 6 years.  The exception was 5th (last place). 

 

2011 - 2014 we were 4th or fifth - this ten year period from 2011 to 2020 we were top two 5 times, bottom two 5 times.  Fits the projections.

 

2006 - 2010 we were 1st three times, 2cd once, and 3rd once.

2001 - 2005 1st three times, 2cd once, 3rd once.  That ten year period defies the odds and perhaps should allow more credit to an earlier regime.  6 first, 2 seconds, 2 thirds!

 

1996 - 2000 we were in the doldrums 2 fifth and 3 4th  

1991 - 1996 we were last twice and 4th once the last three years of this stretch - adding to the next five years with 4 times in last and 4 times in 4th which must balance out with the exceptional years of 2001 - 2010.  The beginning of this period saw us win the world series and come in second.

 

So to recap these thirty years - one world series - nine times 1st, six times 2cd, twice 3rd, 5 times 4th, and 8 times 5th.   Nice symmetry in those numbers. 

 

Then it gets more confusing because there are more teams in a division and fewer teams in the playoffs, but three decades is an interesting view.  I will add that we only finished 1st in the years from 1961 - 1990 four times. Too bad there were no extra divisions in a few of those years. 

I see no reason why the starting lineup listed below can't remain in contention for a long time.

 

2023

1B Roller

2B Arraez

SS Camaro

3B Miranda

LF Kirilloff

CF Celestial

RF Larnach

DH Santo

 

SP Duran

SP Balazovich

SP Winder

SP Sands

SP Canterino

 

RP Duffy

RP Rogers

RP I ran out of thoughts. Good night.

 

Cody, this was a great OP and very relevant! I liked and agreed with just about everything with the exception of 2 items.

 

1] I found the Twins window being clearly open but perhaps closing fast inaccurate. More on that in a moment.

 

2] Probably should have included Cleveland in your examples. If ever there was a team that had a shot and short changed themselves, they would be it.

 

You all know I'm opinionated and long-winded, LOL, but Cody's OP strikes at my Twins heart. So I'm going to TRY to be direct and not be TOO long winded.

 

I live in Royals country here in Omaha. I totally appreciate the 2 teams that went all in and won one. What a thrill for their fans! But they went decades between championship teams. And now they are re-building yet again.

 

As fantastic as the Dogers have been the last several years, all of their regular seasons and playoff appearances, and their $200M payroll, they still never won the WS until last year. With all their talent and $, do you realize they hadn't won the WS since 1988? And they had to beat the "upstart" and frugal Rays to do it.

 

I am not dismissing anyone's opinion, but what would you rather have? A team that at least contends year to year and provides hope and opportunity to win? Or a team that blows up payroll and trades off talent for that one big season? There is no wrong answer.

 

But for me, I want contention yearly. And that's what this FO has been talking about since DAY ONE. For those who want instant gratification...so to speak since its been a while since we won the BIG ONE just like the Dogers...it doesn't happen easily. The best chance you have is to compete yearly.

 

So, bullet points:

 

1] Surprise! We've been winning!

 

2] The FO has done exactly what I hoped they would do for 2021. I prefer a long view of things, no matter how emotionally attached I am to the Twins. They filled holes and kept their eye on the prize with solid, smart additions without going nuts. A good, contending team with flexibility without signing long term deals or trading anyone away after a missed 2020 milb season.

 

3] While a few of us are old enough to remember the 80's and the number of pitching prospects we had then that NEVER turned out, we are 30+yrs removed from those days to realize this current crop is very different. And the FO and coaching changes are also very different. In all my years, I have NEVER been more excited and pleased about what I am seeing coming up! There's a reason, beyond the next CBA, the Twins have been looking at 1yr deals. They know what is coming up and they have the $ to bring someone back if they want.

 

4] Berrios has been treated well. There have been discussions about an extension. There is no animosity. This could be important for many reasons. We have a great number of arms ready or nearly ready. No reason why he can't be part of a great rotation for the next few years. The possibilities are endless right now.

 

5] Not only are there pitching options, there are position players and positional depth options and versatility to complete the roster. EXAMPLE: Sano at 1B, and a rotation of AK, Larnach, Kepler, Rooker and Sano at 1B, OF and DH.

 

The window, IMO, is very much wide open right now! And it could be for 3-5 years plus if they just keep playing the smart card

Are you referring to the trades that helped build the farm system rankings that this post is partially touting?

i am referring to the fact that i did not agree with the trade of Escobar, Lynn, or the way they treated Molitor and Santana. To see the look on Molitor's face as he learned of the trade of Escobar made me cry. He had already turned in the lineup card for that nights game at Fenway. Every administration has its good and bad points. I am not attacking the Falvines. I just do not agree unequivocally with every thing they do. Nor do I think they walk on water like the omnipotent one. Hopefully they learned some lessons that year about how we treat our own.