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The Minnesota Twins' defensive outfield should be stellar and fun to watch in 2022. With Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, and Michael A. Taylor all providing close to elite-level production and Trevor Larnach proving to be a solid defensive outfielder, the team shouldn't have many issues producing one of the best defensive outfields in Major League Baseball
But how good is the infield defense?
The Opening Day infield will likely feature Jose Miranda at third base, Carlos Correa at shortstop, Jorge Polanco at second base, Alex Kirilloff at first base, and a backstop pairing of Christian Vazquez and Ryan Jeffers. In this article, I will not include any data on Alex Kirilloff at first base simply because it is a new position for him, and there is very minimal data to make any assumptions on how he will perform defensively.
Fielding goes far beyond just putouts and errors, so to judge how good the Twins' infield is defensively, we will look at several different stats: Outs Above Average (OAA), Runs Above Average (RAA), and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Each of these stats uses a formula to dictate where a fielder sits compared to the average MLB player.
If a player has a positive number in the OAA and RAA stat, they were better than average. If that number is negative, they were below average. DRS tells us how many runs that player saved with their glove. Again, if that number is positive, that is the number of runs they saved with their fielding ability in 2022. If the number is negative, they accounted for giving up that many runs over the year. If a player boots a ball with a runner on third base and that runner scores, the player doesn't automatically get -1 DRS, just as hitting a walk-off home run doesn't automatically give a player 1 WAR. All these stats are accumulated throughout every ball in play in the season.
With those stats briefly explained, how did the Twins infield fair in 2022? We can start with the good news: the Twins catchers were fantastic. Christian Vazquez accounted for 11 DRS over 918 innings, and Ryan Jeffers had 4 DRS in just 496 innings. No matter who plays catcher for the Twins in 2022, they are sure to be very reliable defensively. Not to mention, both should also be above-average hitting catchers at the plate. I like what the Twins have done here with the position.
The next best infield defender in 2022 was Carlos Correa. In 2021, Correa was elite at the position, compiling 12 OAA, 9 RAA, and 21 DRS on his way to winning a Gold Glove Award. To say his numbers dipped in 2022 would be quite an understatement. Last year, Correa produced -3 OAA, -2 RAA, and 3 DRS.
This dramatic number dip is shocking because the eye test told us that Correa was a terrific defender in 2022. Though the numbers don't back that up, there is still a chance that Correa rebounds in 2023 and returns to at least being a solid fielder. Just two years removed from an elite-level campaign, Correa is a candidate for positive regression.
However, there is also the general belief around the league that Correa will eventually move to third base. Maybe 2022 is the start of the defensive deterioration that will push him there sooner rather than later.
The remaining two infielders, Jose Miranda and Jorge Polanco were not good in the field in 2022. We can start with Miranda, who split time at first and third base last year. In 2022, Miranda played 595.1 innings at first base and 246.2 innings at third base. While playing first, Miranda accounted for -4 OAA and -3 RAA. At third, he was right around league average, accounting for 0 OAA and 0 RAA. Overall, Miranda produced -6 DRS on the year in his split time at both positions.
Miranda is set to be the Twins full time third baseman this year, so we will get a better read on how he is at third base. If Miranda shows to be a below average fielder at third base, this will likely be his last year playing third base consistently, as I think when Royce Lewis returns, he could fit at third as a plus defender. While his numbers at first weren’t good in 2022, I think Miranda will be at least a league average defender at first baseman if given a full-time role, which would likely be where he ends up if Lewis takes over third. Miranda’s bat will continue to play, but he will need to continue to work on his glove.
Polanco was not a good defender in 2022. Polanco has never been a good fielder. He was atrocious defensively at shortstop in 2019 but is also well below average at second base. Last year, Polanco had -9 OAA, -7 RAA, and -1 DRS. Polanco is another player, like Miranda, who makes his money at the plate. If Polanco can continue to provide solid production at the plate, he will provide excellent value to the Twins, especially with his team-friendly contract. However, unless he shifts his focus, Polanco will continue to be a defensive liability.
"Nothing falls but raindrops" may again be the theme of the outfield as they help out their fly-ball pitchers by making spectacular web gem-type plays day in and day out, but the infield defense is flawed. Even with the infield weighing them down, I think the Twins' defense will be top 10 in 2023. There's a chance the infield will experience a bit of positive regression defensively, and the Minnesota Twins will be an all-around enjoyable defensive team to watch.
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