How Confident Are We in the Twins Relievers?

I think the bullpen has the potential to be very good, even without Rogers.  The only real question is (and it is a rather big one), who can get the last outs of the game.

I think we can all agree that Duffey should not be the closer

I really like our long relief, Alcala and Duran can be used some in high leverage. Duffy is OK but not as closer. I miss Rogers already. Trading away Rogers isn't being competitive. If we had Rogers today we would have had a win.

Not having a real closer killed this team last year, and it looks like history is repeating itself.

I do not have confidence at all.  Duffey is heir apparent and does nothing for me.  The best arms are young and untested.  No they have not built a dependable BP. 

After watching Duffey today, I'd definitely put him behind Pagan/Duran and probably behind Smith/Thielbar in a confidence ranking.

gulp...

Woe be upon us.

Even in 2019 Pagán’s FIP was not as good as Duffey’s. Duffey has been a much better reliever over the last three years by any measure. Why would that change this year? Pagán hasn’t been a good reliever for two years and been a replacement level pitcher. The Padres did well to get anything for him after he gave them -1.64 WPA and -0.4 WAR.

Right now the bullpen lacks a closer, or more specifically, a pitcher who has a closer's personality--confident/cocky, chomping at the bit to get into the game, bulldog personality, mound presence, and the ability to find a way to close out the game (and preferably some experience in the late innings).   Everyday Eddie is an example of someone who didn't have lights out stuff, but who battled with every ounce of energy he had and refused to be beaten.  I am not sure Taylor Rogers has that personality, but I am pretty confident that Duffey does not.  That is not based on today's game--every pitcher has days when he doesn't get the job done (except maybe Mariano Rivera).  I think he has shown a lack of confidence for the past 2 years.  I think he is more at ease in the 6th inning role.  On the other hand, Duran and Acala seem to have these characteristics, but they lack experience.   I guess I would give the young guys who have some swagger to them an opportunity to grab the role.  But, we also have to recognize that the offense has been horrible the past two days.  You aren't going to win a bundle of games scoring 4 runs in 2 games. 

I have to begin my thoughts by making a couple of precursor statements:

1] Rogers has never been a/our "closer". He was/is a high leverage "fireman". And that's NOT to diminish him! Modern analytics...and just history and basic logic of watching baseball...has shown a diminished value in a SAVE. A save with a 2 or 3 run lead in the 9th with a "closer" facing the bottom 3 of an order is not as great as a "fireman" facing the heart of the order before that to keep the game in check. I could be wrong, but I think it was Cleveland pen and Andrew Miller, recently retired,who really changed this perception a few years ago. Tampa has also embraced this change in recent years with great success. So it's not about a pure "closer" in the old sense, it's about having high leverage arms who can make things happen in the late innings as needed. 

2] Being a broken record, I've been stating over and again that the pen could be just fine with a healthy Rogers AND a quality RH version to work along side him. I never asked for or expected some $10M+ 3yr deal. There were enough proven arm on the market to add for somewhere around $5M-ish on a 1or 2yr deal to add so Duffey could just be a reliable arm, Alcala could continue the transition to dependable late option, Thielbar could just keep doing what he's been doing, and the middle innings could be in good hands with the arms available, whether or not the Twins transitioned Duran to the pen on a temporary or permanent basis.

Instead, we traded Rogers and only signed Smith as a veteran middle guy to fill the role that Clippard was so good at. 

For those who want to debate WAR or F-WAR, or any other metric in regard to the pen in 2021 and how it finished, and it finished strong WITHOUT Rogers, Colome was part of that and pitched well after May. Duffey, still here, figured it out and was still good despite a lowering of K numbers. Minaya and Coulombe were also part of that 2nd half pen. I was surprised Minaya wasn't protected, and glad he's back. Also happy Coulombe is back and doubt he won't be part of the team in 2022. And I get roster crunch and players you want to hang on to for potential, but we were lucky that both of these solid vets decided to re-up. 

NONE of my comments have ANY weight after 2 games to open the season against a good Mariners team.  Let me be perfectly clear about that! This was 2 games! Duffey could be as good as ever after today, though he, like everyone, has bad moments. We should actually be pretty excited about what the first 2 games showed us. Despite less than ideal weather, just first appearances, the pen has been solid. Ryan and Gray weren't  necessarily on top of their game, but they were OK. 

I am not going to hang Duffey out to dry for 1 game where he looked bad. But I AM going to hang the FO out to dry in a few weeks for NOT adding ONE quality late inning arm to add to the pen with or without Rogers still around.

As to the OP in general:

Romeo/Cotton: They're both here on a temporary term because the Twins want to see what they can do, vs Minaya. Romero hasn't thrown yet. Cotton did well today. I don't trust either, but I'm inclined to like what Cotton did when healthy last year and still surprised Texas just let him go. Both are on a short lease.

Coulombe is not on as short of a lease. He's had a decent, OK of a career. But overall, by the numbers, his 2021 Twins term has been one of his best seasons. When does Moran develop enough to make him obsolete? For that matter, a healthy Smeltzer had a great ST. Coulombe may be a part of 2022, and he's off to a great start with his ST and 1st appearance, but when is he replaced by someone younger? For right now, I like him as a mid innings pitcher.

Thielbar struggled early in 2021, like everyone, and that should be commented on, but like Duffey, he figured it out and suddenly was very good, yet again. And he still looks good. I actually have a lot of confidence in him. His ML lifeline may be limited, we'll see, but he sure figured out the whole complicated "pitching" part of MLB. I trust him in the 6th and 7th innings. But as good as he's been, he shouldn't be an 8th inning guy. 

Smith is Clippard in retro, and partially Thielbar. Proven and can do the job in the mid innings. Awesome.

Pagan is a guy I admit to know nothing about, except for BB Reference and what I've read here. Great 2019 and mediocre since. Apparently,  despite a poor 2020 and final 2021 numbers, he has an arm. His reported 2021 had him on a quality trajectory of a season with a low 3 ERA before he collapsed in his last 10÷ games.

I took a few minutes to actually look at his numbers. I don't know that we got some kind of surprising stud back, but you also have to look at the numbers. By all reports, he took his career numbers in to August and then had a meltdown his last few appearances. He can either climb back up, or, succumb to his late 2021. He's a WC, and I sure wouldn't put him at #3 on the list at this point. But he could surprise.

Duffey is NOT the #2 guy unless he suddenly finds something else. He's been a stalwart, and sort of re-invented his approach in 2021 to finish strong. And that actually comes from a Rogers comment. He's good, and I bet he will be good, But I'm doubting his "fireman " status at this point. I hope I'm wrong. But I think Alcala and Duran will prove to be the STUDS of this pen for 2022, at least eventually.  And I don't doubt the middle relief has some great options, including Winder to get his feet wet. But pen wise, I'm optimistic but scared. 

Right now, we have arms and velocity and options.  And we might be OK. I hope we are. But just like the rotation, I'm afraid we lost an opportunity to add an arm who could have made a difference. 

I still maintain that in the long run it's the pitching that will inevitably doom this team.  Granted over the first two games the pitching overall had been decent.  The hitting has been very sub par.  I'm concerned with the retreads and inexperience throughout the entire pitching staff.  Even healthy I don't see this group of starters or relievers making us a contender.  I think as the season plays out there will be a lot of questioning about the FO moved and non moves.  

The more important question is how confident is Tyler Duffey in himself?  He didn't look confident on that mound yesterday, even before he gave up two runs.  Reminded me of how he looked a couple years ago.

Whatever we do with the pen, I hope we do not do similar to what happen last year marching the same couple guys out in high leverage situations to fail.  Our pen is what put us behind the 8 ball last year blowing many leads.  They ended up not being terrible over the year, but one thing I thought Rocco would do is change up the high leverage guys sooner than he did.  I hate making anyone the "closer" as I believe the save is a dumb stat.  Now, I will agree that some guys look at the 9th different than other innings.  Maybe it is the lack of more innings to come back, but there has been many guys that did great as a set up guy, only to fail when they were asked to close.  Other guys had no issues coming in the 9th.