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  • How Certain Should We Be About the 2023 Twins?


    Ted Schwerzler

    When the regular season eventually expires on the 2022 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins will start preparing for 2023. While a postseason opportunity was once a possibility, making it a reality in the year ahead becomes the new goal. How much certainty should there be regarding the roster next season?

     

    Image courtesy of David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

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    You could certainly argue the Minnesota Twins were hoping for better in 2022. Obviously, you don’t sign someone like Carlos Correa with the intention that he doesn’t wind up playing postseason baseball. However, virtually every move made by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine this year set up an opportunity for those players to impact outcomes in 2023 as well.

    As things stand, operating on a handful of assumptions, the Twins should have something like $100 million to spend in the offseason. They put forth a franchise-record payroll in 2022, but that was less about an indication they were going for it, than it was a response to inflation and simply keeping up with the market.

    Next season the dollars should check in somewhere between $140-160 million based on incentives and complete operating expenses to acquire talent. Minnesota also has a significant amount of the active roster penciled in as potential fits.

    While it wasn’t able to be as nuanced through a tweet, suggesting that the Twins are a shortstop and bullpen help from rounding out their roster holds some weight. Sure, they would absolutely benefit from a starting pitching acquisition. The problem is they have four guys that are all already givens, while being very good options. Any addition would need to be at the level of Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray or better. There aren’t a ton of those out there, and you’d be hard-pressed to suggest a Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer type of signing being understandable.

    Maybe another bat would help, but you also have to figure out where they’ll get regular at-bats. Rocco Baldelli has been afforded lineup flexibility without a static designated hitter this season. The outfield returns Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Gilberto Celestino, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, and Matt Wallner. At least a few of those players are entrenched in a long-term role here, and while you may make a move, the youth is full of high hopes and expectations.

    On the infield, you aren’t likely going to see Jorge Polanco, Jose Miranda or Luis Arraez jettisoned. The hope would be that Royce Lewis can return quickly (July?). Gio Urshela may be a non-tender candidate, but that’s a decision for the front office. Behind the plate, there’ll be an expectation for Ryan Jeffers to fulfill the belief in him, but he will need a backup.

    Through a quick roster rundown, it becomes pretty apparent that shortstop and bullpen help are the biggest areas of opportunity for Minnesota. Filling the hole left by Carlos Correa will be a massive task should he not return. The Twins made the relief unit better by adding Jorge Lopez at the trade deadline, and they should get Jorge Alcala back in 2023. Maybe Cody Stashak can be a weapon again, but either way, that unit needs some more horses.

    Before even considering names to fill the spots, it should be relatively straightforward to suggest that Minnesota has plenty of resources to round out a roster not needing a ton of help. If the 2022 Twins were marred by injuries and ineffectiveness on the edges, then raising the water level where there were deficiencies and spending to fill holes is a pretty fair suggestion.

    The AL Central shouldn’t be expected to take a massive leap ahead in the next year, and once again, Minnesota can position themselves to be right in the thick of it.

     

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    The key word for the front office this offseason should be DEPTH. There's no reason to believe many of the same people who are injured at the moment won't be missing substantial time next year as well. If you don't expect that, you haven't followed Twins baseball. We need to get into a position so when our top-line guys go down, we at least have major league caliber talent to back them up as opposed to the AAA team we're trotting out there right now.

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    Lots of questions, very few certainties. As by noted above, the Twins will have money to spend. Gary Sánchez is a free agent and Correa can opt out , which would create two holes. 
     

    The return of injured players would give the Twins needed depth and the chance for one or more of them to become fixtures in their lineup. I would advocate picking up a good starter plus a reliever and they seem to be lacking left handers. 

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    Never quite certain that the FO will act quickly in free agency and grab a top tier player or pitcher  , that hasn't been their MO , but this is the off season to do so  ,  rodon a left hander is needed in the rotation but make sure they pass a thorough physical ...

    Nice to see Ryan have a couple of good starts towards the end of the season ....

     

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    I would not say our lineup is set at all, either pitching or hitting.  They will have money to spend on short term contracts if they want to.  The Twins will not look for long term deals, most likely nothing longer than 4 years for anyone in FA.  If someone like Contreres, or one of many 1B corner OF or SS will sign a larger per year 3 to 4 year deal, than a longer deal I think they may make a surprising splash.  We will have depth, and can trade from that if needed when signing some players but I would love to see a large short term deal.  Do not tie yourself to aging FA down the road when other players will need to be paid.  

    I think it may be time to move on from both Polonco and Kepler, DFA or trade for a pen arm if possible, but we have plenty of younger guys that can fill those rolls, if we cannot go out and sign a corner OF guy to replace Kepler, we still should have plenty of depth. 

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    The Twins struggled against teams with winning records, Cleveland did not. Cleveland has a pile of position players and pitchers that are highly rated and ready after showing their skills at AA and AAA. The Guardians are flush with talent that just needs an opportunity. They are in first place now with the youngest team in baseball.

    This offseason will be interesting. We hope that Polanco, Kepler, and all of the other injured players will return to full health. The Twins are in a tough spot because they have a number of players whose injuries have become more frequent. I hope their lineup gets 140 games from Arraez, Kirilloff, Polanco, Miranda, Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, and Gordon plus contributions from other healthy bodies but this is difficult to imagine given the last two years. Losing Correa would create a massive hole in the team imho. We assume that Gray and Mahle will be back but we don't know what will occur in the next few months. I will not be surprised by any player getting traded or released from the roster. The Twins need healthy players who want to play for the Twins. Only Falvey can make that determination.

    The failure to play fundamental baseball remains an issue, but a normal Spring Training could alleviate those issues if the brain trust sees fit to acknowledge that shortcoming. Finally, the Twins need an alternative voice in the dugout to help Baldelli and Falvey would need to be onboard with a more flexible style of managing the players and games. 

    In sum, I don't believe anything is certain about the 2023 Minnesota Twins.

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    The 2023 Twins will face the same issues the 2022 Twins did - bad pitching. 

    Sonny Gray is a real ML pitcher and easily our best one. Joe Ryan is a solid back of the rotation starter but wouldn't be a starter on a playoff caliber rotation. Mahle has shoulder issues so we can hope he's healthy but should probably plan on only getting 100 innings from him. Maeda is 35 and coming back from injury. His last season with us, he produced a 91 ERA+ and .3 WAR. We should probably expect more of that production then any SSS.

    So the Twins need pitching. Tons of it. The pipeline is a failure. The pitching philosophy is boring and a failure. So, lots of work to do in the offseason. 

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    If the payroll is actually $155MM, the Twins are going to likely lose quite a bit this year. I expect the Pohlads are going to seriously reign in the payroll. $120MM, max, but probably more like $100MM next year if I were to guess. That means they have much less they could spend. But is Falvey the one who will be in charge of choosing where to spend it?

    C - Jeffers
    1B - Arraez $8MM (with the bonus for Arb pool and his All Star game)
    2B - Polanco $8MM
    3B - Urshela $10MM
    SS - Lewis $0.7MM
    LF - Larnach $0.7MM
    CF - Buxton $15MM
    RF - Kepler $8.5MM
    DH - Miranda $2MM (bonus pool)
    UO - Celestino $0.7MM
    MI - Gordon $1.5MM (bonus pool)
    BC - ?
    Bench Bat - Kirilloff $0.7MM


    SP - Maeda $3
    SP - Gray $12MM
    SP - Mahle $10MM
    SP - Ryan $2MM (bonus pool)
    SP - Varland $0.7MM
    BP - Duran $2MM (bonus pool)
    BP - Lopez $4MM
    BP - Thielbar $2MM
    BP - Alcala $0.7MM
    BP - Jax $0.7MM
    BP - Megill $0.7MM
    BP - Winder $0.7MM
    BP - Ober $0.7MM

    Where are the Twins looking to upgrade? It's tough to say. Lots of question marks, and it seems like the roster above will probably be north of $90MM. Maybe the bonus pool is paid out at the end of this year rather than next? I'm just guessing at those values.

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    2 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

    Mahle has shoulder issues so we can hope he's healthy but should probably plan on only getting 100 innings from him.

    If this is the case the Twins should not offer arbitration; sunk cost of business. 

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    7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

    If this is the case the Twins should not offer arbitration; sunk cost of business. 

    I'm sure they won't do that but shoulder injuries are usually much, much worse then elbow injuries. 100 innings seems like a reasonable over/under to me.

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    I'd move Mahle and Maeda to relief, like two inning guys every four days or so.

    I'd likely bring back Sanchez, given the options. 

    If Miami is really trading one of their good starters, I'm in. 

    I'd certainly consider one of the elite SS, but I don't see it.

    I'd listen on Kepler and Polanco, but be in no hurry to move them. 

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    6 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

    I'm sure they won't do that but shoulder injuries are usually much, much worse then elbow injuries. 100 innings seems like a reasonable over/under to me.

    Totally agree that the Twins will most likely keep Mahle, but they need more than 100 innings from a guy that will earn @$10 million. Mahle at his best is a good #3 type guy. The Twins gave up players to get him but that should not be the reason they keep him if he is indeed burdened with a bum shoulder making him a poor gamble going forward. The Twins should know sufficient information about Mahle's shoulder to make an informed decision.

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    2 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

    The 2023 Twins will face the same issues the 2022 Twins did - bad pitching. 

    Sonny Gray is a real ML pitcher and easily our best one. Joe Ryan is a solid back of the rotation starter but wouldn't be a starter on a playoff caliber rotation. Mahle has shoulder issues so we can hope he's healthy but should probably plan on only getting 100 innings from him. Maeda is 35 and coming back from injury. His last season with us, he produced a 91 ERA+ and .3 WAR. We should probably expect more of that production then any SSS.

    So the Twins need pitching. Tons of it. The pipeline is a failure. The pitching philosophy is boring and a failure. So, lots of work to do in the offseason. 

    While I think you're right that we need more pitching I think you badly underestimate Ryan. He has pitched 137 innings at a 3.6 ERA (4.15 FIP) with 9 plus SOs per 9. He's likely to finish a little north of 150 innings. All this in his rookie year; it's a pretty safe bet that this is the floor with a real chance of improvement. He's a solid #3 starter on a contending team and could mature into a #2. Gray already is a #2. Maeda is probably the #3 or #4 starter he was with the Dodgers, not the #1 he was in the short 2020 season. Mahle and Ober both have the potential to be quality back end guys and maybe as high as #3s but at least quality #4 and #5 starters. We should also have Winder, Varland and SVR at AAA to start the season and Paddack back in June/July. Pretty good depth and better IF we stay healthy. As we've seen that's a big IF. 

    I think the starting rotation is competent enough to be the rotation on a 90+ plus win team. We have the same 2 big problems the Twins always have with the starting rotation - no true #1 starter and insufficient depth. We may have that depth with Winder, Varland and SVR, we may not. We clearly don't have the #1 guy. There is very little likelihood one will even be available and then only at inflated prices. Not happening. Let's not overspend on a question mark like Rondon or bring in a bunch of Bundy/Archer types. 

    You can solve that by having a top to bottom good bullpen to back up a better than average but not great rotation. We're probably 3 guys short of that. I would focus on finding 2-3 good relievers and roll with the starters as is. I would then either spend the $35m on Correa if he'll agree to it and add 1 bat or spend some real money on a 1-2 bats. Finding a place to play them is frankly pretty easy. LF is open unless we intend to play Gordon or Larnach there every day. Kepler can move to the bench or be traded to open another or an alternative corner OF spot. Urshela can be traded so Miranda has a spot at 3B and than 1B is open. This is all without a static DH. We can use another Catcher; in fact we need one pretty desperately. That is all without considering any contribution from Kirilloff. I think he's a huge mystery and we shouldn't count on much at all from him next year or frankly in the future at all until he shows he can play. He starts in AAA. 

    There it is. Spend your money on 2 quality relivers and at least 1 quality middle of the order bat. Sit out the starting pitching carousel and run back what you now have hoping for better health, 

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    17 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

    While I think you're right that we need more pitching I think you badly underestimate Ryan. He has pitched 137 innings at a 3.6 ERA (4.15 FIP) with 9 plus SOs per 9. He's likely to finish a little north of 150 innings. All this in his rookie year; it's a pretty safe bet that this is the floor with a real chance of improvement. He's a solid #3 starter on a contending team and could mature into a #2. Gray already is a #2. Maeda is probably the #3 or #4 starter he was with the Dodgers, not the #1 he was in the short 2020 season. Mahle and Ober both have the potential to be quality back end guys and maybe as high as #3s but at least quality #4 and #5 starters. We should also have Winder, Varland and SVR at AAA to start the season and Paddack back in June/July. Pretty good depth and better IF we stay healthy. As we've seen that's a big IF. 

    I think the starting rotation is competent enough to be the rotation on a 90+ plus win team. We have the same 2 big problems the Twins always have with the starting rotation - no true #1 starter and insufficient depth. We may have that depth with Winder, Varland and SVR, we may not. We clearly don't have the #1 guy. There is very little likelihood one will even be available and then only at inflated prices. Not happening. Let's not overspend on a question mark like Rondon or bring in a bunch of Bundy/Archer types. 

    You can solve that by having a top to bottom good bullpen to back up a better than average but not great rotation. We're probably 3 guys short of that. I would focus on finding 2-3 good relievers and roll with the starters as is. I would then either spend the $35m on Correa if he'll agree to it and add 1 bat or spend some real money on a 1-2 bats. Finding a place to play them is frankly pretty easy. LF is open unless we intend to play Gordon or Larnach there every day. Kepler can move to the bench or be traded to open another or an alternative corner OF spot. Urshela can be traded so Miranda has a spot at 3B and than 1B is open. This is all without a static DH. We can use another Catcher; in fact we need one pretty desperately. That is all without considering any contribution from Kirilloff. I think he's a huge mystery and we shouldn't count on much at all from him next year or frankly in the future at all until he shows he can play. He starts in AAA. 

    There it is. Spend your money on 2 quality relivers and at least 1 quality middle of the order bat. Sit out the starting pitching carousel and run back what you now have hoping for better health, 

    No. Sorry, but no. There's too much kool-aid going around TD on our pitching. It's a bad, bad staff.  As a staff, both starters and relievers are in the bottom third in baseball. 

    Ryan is a back of the rotation pitcher. While he's a rookie, he's already 26 years old. He' not going to improve much more. He's made 30 ML starts so we have a decent idea of what he is over a full season - 30 starts, 160-170 innings ERA+ around 100, 2 WAR. That's not bad but it's a back-end arm but not what a playoff team wants to throw out in a make or break game. He's not top 50 in any stat right now. Ober hopes to be this good. And the rest of the pipeline looks to be more of this. 

    I like healthy Mahle and Gray. Both are in the 2/3 range although Gray will be 33 next year so that's a problem. But it would be silly to expect Gray to better than he was this year and Mahle is a big question mark.

    Maeda is 35. His last season, he managed a 91 ERA+ and .3 WAR. He's coming back from TJ. He'll be a bullpen arm. 

    This season has pretty clearly shown we don't have the horses to pitch us to a 90-win season - heck, probably not even to a winning season. We need an overhaul of the system. Barring that, we need several real starters, and simply hoping that another year of experience and getting healthy is a really bad plan. 

    The lineup will be fine.

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    6 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

    Never quite certain that the FO will act quickly in free agency and grab a top tier player or pitcher  , that hasn't been their MO , but this is the off season to do so  ,  rodon a left hander is needed in the rotation but make sure they pass a thorough physical ...

    Nice to see Ryan have a couple of good starts towards the end of the season ....

     

    A team can make an offer to a free agent but a team can't just "grab a top tier player or pitcher". Free agency is the reverse of a draft. Teams don't select free agents. Free agents select teams.

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    52 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

    While I think you're right that we need more pitching I think you badly underestimate Ryan. He has pitched 137 innings at a 3.6 ERA (4.15 FIP) with 9 plus SOs per 9. He's likely to finish a little north of 150 innings. All this in his rookie year; it's a pretty safe bet that this is the floor with a real chance of improvement. He's a solid #3 starter on a contending team...

     

    12 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

    No. Sorry, but no. There's too much kool-aid going around TD on our pitching. It's a bad, bad staff.  As a staff, both starters and relievers are in the bottom third in baseball. 

    Ryan is a back of the rotation pitcher. While he's a rookie, he's already 26 years old. He' not going to improve much more...

    I have a tendency to expect what @gunnarthor is saying, but I do think discounting Ryan's ability to improve is a bit premature. I think Ryan could improve since his secondary offerings were not utilized heavily in the minors. That said, I think there are far more starters like Ryan who back up a promising rookie campaign with a sophomore slump or permanent decline as the scouting reports become more clear on pitcher's capabilities and batters start sitting on weak pitches they know are coming.

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    Looking at my posts, I'm a bit concerned that they are too negative. I would be very, very happy to be wrong on Ryan. He seems like a good guy, works hard, has stayed healthy. He's easy to root for and I hope to eat crow when he's an all-star next year. 

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    4 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

    The 2023 Twins will face the same issues the 2022 Twins did - bad pitching. 

    Sonny Gray is a real ML pitcher and easily our best one. Joe Ryan is a solid back of the rotation starter but wouldn't be a starter on a playoff caliber rotation. Mahle has shoulder issues so we can hope he's healthy but should probably plan on only getting 100 innings from him. Maeda is 35 and coming back from injury. His last season with us, he produced a 91 ERA+ and .3 WAR. We should probably expect more of that production then any SSS.

    So the Twins need pitching. Tons of it. The pipeline is a failure. The pitching philosophy is boring and a failure. So, lots of work to do in the offseason. 

    Heck yes, preach!!!! 

    This pitching staff is bad, bad bad and I echo your comments. Since the Twins have Mahle for only 1 more year under contract, I say run 'em out there until he breaks down, at least we'll have received something from him. Don't have him on an innings count, don't put him on-and-off the IL all year, it's just clogging up the pipeline. Let him throw his heart out until he can't throw again and let some other team deal with the problem in 2024. 

    PS - hitting is bad too. Aside from Buxton (who would bat 9th in NY, LA, or HOU) there's nobody out there that could start for a World Series contender. 

     

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    The only thing I’m certain about 2023 on September 19, 2022 is we have a lot of work to do. Bringing back the same core of players, manager and FO included, is not what I’d call a recipe for success. Something has stunk with this franchise for a long time now. 

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    5 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

    No. Sorry, but no. There's too much kool-aid going around TD on our pitching. It's a bad, bad staff.  As a staff, both starters and relievers are in the bottom third in baseball. 

    Ryan is a back of the rotation pitcher. While he's a rookie, he's already 26 years old. He' not going to improve much more. He's made 30 ML starts so we have a decent idea of what he is over a full season - 30 starts, 160-170 innings ERA+ around 100, 2 WAR. That's not bad but it's a back-end arm but not what a playoff team wants to throw out in a make or break game. He's not top 50 in any stat right now. Ober hopes to be this good. And the rest of the pipeline looks to be more of this. 

    I like healthy Mahle and Gray. Both are in the 2/3 range although Gray will be 33 next year so that's a problem. But it would be silly to expect Gray to better than he was this year and Mahle is a big question mark.

    Maeda is 35. His last season, he managed a 91 ERA+ and .3 WAR. He's coming back from TJ. He'll be a bullpen arm. 

    This season has pretty clearly shown we don't have the horses to pitch us to a 90-win season - heck, probably not even to a winning season. We need an overhaul of the system. Barring that, we need several real starters, and simply hoping that another year of experience and getting healthy is a really bad plan. 

    The lineup will be fine.

    Interesting. You and I often agree but not here, particularly about the lineup. I think even with full health, a pipe dream regarding Buxton, we are at least one middle of the order bat short even if we keep Correa. Without him, very short.

    What we have in the lineup right now for next year? Arraez is a great leadoff hitter against right-handed pitching, but doesn't it left-handers very well. He had a great season this year but there's no reason to think he's going to hit .320 again next year. I think Miranda and Corbin made real strides this year and would love to see them hitting in the 6 and 7 holes next year. Polanco can hit 5 and, if he's still here, Correa #2. Buxton can hit 3 or 4 If he isn't hurt, but the Buxton we saw from about June 1 on should hit 6 or 7. So even if you pencil him in AND assume he isn't hurt, we are at least one middle of the order bat short. Without Correa 2 short, without Buxton and Correa, the Royals. 

    Who do we have put in those middle of the order spots? Urshela? Sanchez? Jeffers? Larnach? Kepler? Urshela is a nice player who belongs hitting somewhere between the 6 hole and the 8 hole and Sanchez and Jeffers are end of the order bats with occasional power. Yet hose 3 are the 3 best hitters of the remaining group. Kepler is a very good defensive outfielder who cannot hit. That has now been true for multiple years with 2019 the only real exception. You know, the year of the juiced baseball. He should be the 4th OF or somewhere else.  Larnach might be good, he might be average, he might be bad, who knows? He is not been able to say healthy long enough for us to really find that out and he will probably have one of those up-and-down basically rookie year seasons next year. Kirilloff is a complete question mark. as to whether he will ever be able to play baseball at a high level again. They cut off part of his arm bone for goodness sake. I have to believe he will start out the season in AAA and have to show he can play before he even gets a lot of MLB at bats in 2023. Wallner? Who knows, but he's more likely to start the season in AAA and become a major league regular in 2024, if ever. Palacios, Cave, Contreras, just no. I just don't see anyone else that we presently have riding to the rescue. Could Royce Lewis be that guy starting in June or July? Maybe but hard to count on that. 

    I think we have a bottom half of the league offense that can become slightly above average if Correa stays and hits like he did this year AND Buxton has a healthy season. Perhaps more importantly, even if everything comes together we do not have the kind of offense that can carry an average to below average pitching staff. We need at least one middle of the order bat. I will talk about the pitching in a different post.

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    5 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

    No. Sorry, but no. There's too much kool-aid going around TD on our pitching. It's a bad, bad staff.  As a staff, both starters and relievers are in the bottom third in baseball. 

    Ryan is a back of the rotation pitcher. While he's a rookie, he's already 26 years old. He' not going to improve much more. He's made 30 ML starts so we have a decent idea of what he is over a full season - 30 starts, 160-170 innings ERA+ around 100, 2 WAR. That's not bad but it's a back-end arm but not what a playoff team wants to throw out in a make or break game. He's not top 50 in any stat right now. Ober hopes to be this good. And the rest of the pipeline looks to be more of this. 

    I like healthy Mahle and Gray. Both are in the 2/3 range although Gray will be 33 next year so that's a problem. But it would be silly to expect Gray to better than he was this year and Mahle is a big question mark.

    Maeda is 35. His last season, he managed a 91 ERA+ and .3 WAR. He's coming back from TJ. He'll be a bullpen arm. 

    This season has pretty clearly shown we don't have the horses to pitch us to a 90-win season - heck, probably not even to a winning season. We need an overhaul of the system. Barring that, we need several real starters, and simply hoping that another year of experience and getting healthy is a really bad plan. 

    The lineup will be fine.

    Interestingly, while I think the lineup is much worse than you do I don't that the pitching staff is quite as bad as you make it out. As you acknowledge, the starting rotation has two roughly #2/3 guys in Gray and Mahle and you acknowledge that Ryan is basically a solid #4. I think he's more of a solid #3 but we can agree to disagree on that because it really depends on whether he continues to improve next year, as I think, or has reached his ceiling at 26 years old, as you think. Maeda is absolutely a question mark coming back from TJ but I think looking around at other success stories he's likely to be back or close to what he was when we got him from the Dodgers – a solid #3/4 starter for about 130-150 innings who then becomes a good bullpen pitcher down the stretch.. Ober is better than most team's #5 starter and if he falters we do have some depth with with Winder, Varland, and SVR. Yes, the bullpen is a mess - we have about half a good bullpen - and that's why I said we should really put some money into two or three quality bullpen arms for next year.

    By my count, we have roughly 4 pitchers who can and should be #2-4 starters on a competitive rotation in Gray, Mahle, Ryan, and Maeda. They are backed up by at least 4 young arms that did potentially be the #5 starter or even force their way into the rotation ahead of one of the top four over the course of next season. Plus Paddack will be back by mid-season. That is frankly more than most teams have. Yes, we are missing a true #1 starter. So are about 20 other teams in MLB. 

    Here is the real rub - there aren't any true #1 starters likely to be available in free agency other than deGrom and Verlander, both of whom are likely to sign with their current teams and would not come to the Twins in any event. Trying to sign a guy like Carlos Rodon, Aaron Nola, Taillion, Clevinger, Sale, Kyle Gibson, etc. is more likely than not to be spending a lot of money on guys that aren't any better than the guys you already have. They really do nothing but fill in a full rotation of #3 type starters instead of leaving that one spot open for one of the young guys. The young guys might be worse, they might develop to be better. We won't know if they don't pitch. 

    I've said all year that this team is only a few players short - a strong middle of the order bat, a true #1 starter, and two more quality late inning relievers. We're not going to get all those spots filled in one off-season and couldn't afford it even if the players were available and willing to come to the Twins. I think we have to choose. My view is getting a true #1 starter is about the same price as getting a solid middle of the order bat +1 or 2 quality relievers. Both cost roughly $25-35m a season. I would rather have the bat and relievers because I think you have a better chance of actually hitting on your acquisitions. I also think that level of addition gets us to a competitive team with a shot to win 90+ games.

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    One more thought on next year. I think in this series against Cleveland is a good microcosm for the season. Given the quality of the starting performances, they win the game 2 started by Bieber and we win game 4 started by Ryan 90% of the time. What happened in the other three games? Games 1 and 3 were competitive and we lost both. Why? We could not hit well enough and our bullpen wasn't good enough. Today's game is hard to put into the calculation since Gray couldn't go more than two innings with his hamstring. Although, again we didn't score very many runs and the bullpen was pretty poor.

    The common thread this season has been bullpen issues and and an inability to score runs. Yes, we have had injuries. Yes, the starting pitching has been inconsistent at best. My view is let's try to solve the two big problems this off-season by getting another bat and at least 2 quality bullpen arms. That's where I think we should put our money.

    Sorry for the rants. I'm done now and will go watch the Vikings game. Speaking of possible disappointment . . .

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    The longer we wait to start a rebuild, the more it's going to hurt. Cleveland and the White Sox both figured this out - we have to do the same. Take lumps for 5 years or so, and restructure.

    Tear this team down. Completely. New FO, new manager, new coaches, put in a plan for fundamental baseball and pitching development. Hire the up-and-comers from successful franchises.

    This FO has proven it can't "reload." Baldelli has proven he can't change. Our franchise star can't stay on the field. Rebuild. Now.

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    They've proven they can't win by winning the division twice....

    I think the FO has two big issues. Terrible first round picks too often. Terrible bullpen management. 

    An awful lot rides on the budget next year. They can afford a top SS. And pitching, though I think their best route there is dealing with Miami.

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    1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

    The longer we wait to start a rebuild, the more it's going to hurt. Cleveland and the White Sox both figured this out - we have to do the same. Take lumps for 5 years or so, and restructure.

    Tear this team down. Completely. New FO, new manager, new coaches, put in a plan for fundamental baseball and pitching development. Hire the up-and-comers from successful franchises.

    This FO has proven it can't "reload." Baldelli has proven he can't change. Our franchise star can't stay on the field. Rebuild. Now.

    The team went through that in the seventies, Twins fans do not want to see that again and Pohlad's know that will bring the same level attendance the seventies had; it went from a million and quater down to three-quarter of a million.

    As they are in it for the money, it will not happen.

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