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Okay, so maybe the premise of this story as portrayed above is a little click-baity and very off-seasony, but, at the very least, it’s worth considering, particularly as the rumor mill churns.
Arraez’s exploits during the 2022 season are well-known among Twins fans. He won the team’s first A.L. batting title since Joe Mauer in 2009 and was named to his first All-Star team. He was also third on the team in fWAR trailing only Carlos Correa (4.4) and Byron Buxton (4.0), the two bona fide franchise cornerstone level players on the roster.
If you look up “Contact Hitter” in your nearest Merriam-Webster or dictionary of choice, the definition you’ll find is “Luis Arraez.” The Twins atypical first baseman/DH ranked in the 100th percentile in K% and Whiff% last summer according to Baseball Savant. For the analytically disinclined, essentially, Arraez is the corporeal form of “see ball, hit ball.”
But what Arraez is *not* is “see ball, hit ball hard and far.” He ranked in the 7th percentile in HardHit%, 11th in barrel rate, and 48th in average exit velocity in 2022. Add in his height (5’10” according to Baseball Savant, which is…kind…at best) and Outs Above Average (15th percentile) and Arraez’s fit at first base long term should come into question.
That, of course, isn’t a new discussion. When Arraez was first moved to first base out of necessity due to the calamity of injuries the team suffered all that was talked about was how weird it was to see him playing there and that it wasn’t likely his long term home. The issue, though, is that this conversation was happening *after* he had been ruled out as a second baseman (Polanco is the stronger option at the position and Arraez’s knees struggled to handle the load during his first three seasons), third baseman (*remembers that one series in Oakland*), or outfielder (WOOF).
In all reality, the Twins’ only option to keep Arraez’s bat in the lineup everyday was to either place him at first base or DH, which ultimately accounted for nearly 75% of his plate appearances. Despite his ability to rack up hits, Arraez graded out as a merely above average first baseman and a top-tier DH in many important statistical categories. Below is how he ranked among qualified position players—both A.L. and N.L.—last season.
I can hear many of you saying, “Uh, isn’t being 'merely above average and top tier' a good thing?” and, rest assured, it is! But here’s the crux of my argument: There’s a good chance that Luis Arraez’s 2022 campaign was the embodiment of the peak of his powers.
Arraez is young and possesses elite bat to ball skills. He will likely grade out as an above average hitter for the bulk of his career. But his ceiling can only be so high as long as he’s chained to either first base defensively or DH and/or not winning batting titles. Any negative deviation from his 2022 output and Arraez will likely only grade out as average offensively at either position.
For instance, here is how Arraez ranked among the positions listed above during 2021, a merely good season by his standards.
Oofda. (While Arraez's DH numbers look alright, it should be noted that only 12 players qualified as full-time DHs in 2021 compared to 16 in 2022, according to FanGraphs.)
One potential mitigation strategy Arraez could employ is trying to hit for more power. As shown in the charts above, his ISO falls well below average among qualified players at all four positions over the last two seasons. More home runs would not only lead to a better ISO but also to greater statistical values across the board, except for batting average, in all likelihood. (This can be seen in how much better Arraez graded out in 2022 compared to 2021. His jump from six career dingers to eight in one season was *the* reason why he was so valuable last summer.)
But hitting for more power—which would be an even greater increase than the increase he showed in 2022 (his 8 dingers brought him to 14 for his career)—would require a massive overhaul of Arraez’s approach at the plate, which isn’t impossible but highly unlikely.
As such, now may be the perfect time for the Twins to move the fan favorite, especially to a team like the Miami Marlins. Swapping him for higher-end starting pitching would not only bolster the Twins already deep, but low throttle starting rotation but also free up more space at DH for the likes of Buxton and first base for Alex Kirilloff. The big winner of an Arraez trade could be Royce Lewis—who may need a graded return following his second ACL reconstruction—or Edouard Julien—who may very well just be a French Canadian clone of Arraez with more pop.
Of course, holding onto Arraez is an entirely defensible position as well. But if there were ever a time to trade a reigning batting champ, now may just be the time for the Twins. At the very least, I’m sure Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are thinking real hard about whether or not doing so would be prudent.
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