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Amid a maelstrom of often bizarre off-season moves, the Twins acquired Gio Urshela and much-maligned ex-wunderkind Gary Sanchez from the New York Yankees in exchange for Josh Donaldson (and his hefty contract), Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and backup backstop Ben Rortvedt.
Of the incoming contingent from the Bronx, much of the initial attention has been leveled at Sanchez. The formerly prodigious, terse slugger was symbolically banished by Yankees fans long before being sent to Minnesota. There has been much less attention geared towards Urshela, himself seeking a return to prominence in pastures new.
The casual throwaway line summarizing the Colombian’s place in this trade is simply ‘the Twins just downgraded at third base.’ On the most basic level, that’s true. Under the surface, however, Urshela and Donaldson aren’t worlds apart in recent seasons. In the last two seasons, Donaldson has accumulated 3.1 fWAR, Urshela 2.6. Go back a third season, and Donaldson leads 8.0 to 6.7. Urshela is a good player with a recent history of being a very good player. With this in mind, he deserves a more thorough examination of his talents than he has received thus far from Twins territory. So what does Urshela being to the table at his best and his worst? What’s left to work on in 2022?
The Ceiling
Originally signed by Cleveland as a free agent in 2008, Urshela spent time in the Guardians and Blue Jays organizations until he found his way to New York in 2018. That’s when Gio turned from nothing into something. In 2019, his first full season with the Yankees, Urshela accumulated 3.1 fWAR and managed a 132 wRC+. Urshela showed a particular propensity for hitting off-speed and breaking pitches, accumulating 12 runs of additional value against changeups and curveballs that season.
The shortened 2020 season was more of the same, when Urshela returned an even better 133 wRC+, and would have accumulated 4.3 fWAR over a full 162 game season. The Colombian’s peripherals improved across the board, as he finished in the 86th percentile in MLB for average exit velocity and in the 98th percentile for xBA.
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The Floor
Then 2021 happened. Urshela’s offense bottomed out last season. He took a significant tumble in every basic and advanced metric you would care to name. Most strikingly, Urshela’s xBA fell from .314 in 2020, to just .252 in 2021. Many of the advanced metrics showed Urshela was still hitting the ball hard. His exit velocities and the frequency with which he barreled the ball were in line with his numbers from 2019 and 2020, so where did the offense go?
The most notable difference in Gio Urshela in 2021 was an inability to elevate the ball. Urshela’s average launch angle fluctuated from averaging 12.7 degrees during his outstanding 2019 and 2020 campaigns to just 7.5 degrees in 2021. The number of line drives he hit fell and the number of ground balls he hit increased significantly (around 8% on the season, equivalent to approximately 25-35 additional ground balls).
To better understand this, I sought out some more expert advice. Matt Lisle, a hitting coach with years of MLB and college experience, offered this: ‘there are so many things that can contribute to that, the most common issue is just attack angle’. Lisle was quick to point out that he hadn’t studied Urshela’s swing directly, but let’s dig into ‘attack angle’ in more depth.
Simply, attack angle is the angle of the bat’s path at impact relative to horizontal. Lisle also offered a useful graphic to demonstrate visually.
While it’s no sure thing that Urshela’s attack angle is the root of his offensive struggles in 2021, it’s clear that elevating the ball is a critical next step if he is to return to his stellar offensive output from 2019 and 2020.
Fielding and Financial Versatility
While not an elite defender, Urshela also offers defensive versatility. In 2020 (his best season) he managed -1 OAA (outs above average) at third base, compared to the 1 OAA offered by Donaldson that season. Urshela’s defense has fluctuated in its consistency with his hitting in his seasons in the majors, but he won't be a defensive detractor.
Urshela offers one more boon to the Twins, team control. Urshela is in his penultimate year of arbitration in 2022, being paid $6.5 million. His cost will increase in 2023 to around $9 million, not a huge number for a player who will likely be worth approximately 2.0 fWAR in 2022 and a similar number in 2023. While it’s likely Urshela is simply keeping the hot corner warm until the Twins deem Jose Miranda ready to takeover as everyday third-baseman, his presence provides a solid offensive and defensive floor at the position and the possibility he could rediscover the magic of 2019 and 2020.
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