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Twins Video
Kenta Maeda: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K (69% strikes)
Homeruns: Kepler (7), Polanco (10), Kirilloff (7)
Top 3 WPA: Maeda (.387), Polanco (.093), Kepler (.087)
Win Probability Chart (via Fangraphs)
Maeda Dominates Royals Offense
Maeda only allowed one runner to get to third base and it was on a Sebastian Rivero 69 mile-per-hour bloop single to right field in the bottom of the second inning. In by far the best outing of his season, Maeda started 15 of 21 batters faced with first pitch strikes and generated 18 swings and misses over his six innings pitched.
As Jim Kaat pointed out during the broadcast on Bally Sports North, this was the first time since Maeda’s second start on April 7th that he was able to make it through six innings. Throughout the day Maeda was fooling Royals batters, who sported a .222 expected batting average, with his slider generating 11 called strikes and whiffs on the pitch. Below, Rob “Pitching Ninja” Friedman, shows a great overlay on just why that pitch was so effective today.
After his last start, where the spin rates of his slider, fastball, and sinker dipped, there was some concern among an opposing fan base that maybe Maeda’s 2020 Cy Young caliber season was in part due to some “sticky stuff”.
It’s too early to know the exact science on just how much “sticky stuff” can impact spin rates but, for what it’s worth, Maeda’s slider was nasty today and had an average spin rate of 2493 which is close to the average spin rate of the same pitch during the 2020 season (2505).
The two runs the Royals scored came in the bottom of the ninth inning when Hansel Robles gave up a Dyson single with the bases loaded.
Twins Chase Brad Keller but Make Bullpen Pay
Today provided a good example of why advanced stats have meaning alongside more traditional stats. Keller was able to pitch through six-and-a-third innings walking just two and striking out seven despite a strike percentage of just 61%.
Patience is a virtue, as they say, but for the Twins it’s their kryptonite as they are third in all of baseball at swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone. Like Maeda, Keller never really faced in real threats from the seven baserunners he allowed, aside from the one he created after back-to-back headsy baserunning plays in the third and a Trevor Larnach two-strike, two-out single.
Keller's only other mistake on the day ended up 395 feet from home plate, which was one of three long balls on the day.
Richard Lovelady came in and allowed homeruns to Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff in the top of the seventh.
In all, four of the six runs came from the long ball with Larnach and Arraez pairing up for another RBI and run scored, respectively, in the top of the ninth giving the Twins their sixth run of the day.
Bullpen Usage Chart
WED | THU | FRI | SAT | SUN | TOT | |
Coulombe | 0 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 23 |
Duffey | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
Thielbar | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
Robles | 0 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 53 |
Law | 0 | 32 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 66 |
Colomé | 14 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
Rogers | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 20 | 42 |
Alcala | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 37 |
Jax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 88 | 0 | 88 |
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