Front Office Signals Starting Rotation Might Be Complete- Should Fans Buy In?

Wow!

May I suggest that Twins fans sit back, open a cool one and relax.  Let's give the starters they have three or four weeks and then see how they are doing after four or five starts.  What would people prefer?  That they give Oakland whatever they wanted in a trade, gut the team for the next decade?  Gotta believe the fact that Oakland didn't get a trade done tells us alot about what their asking price was.

And who knows, after a brutal 2021 this team may just be very exciting to follow.

I think this is the rotation we're going to ride with to start the season. While I would have preferred some investment in higher end pitchers...we also got Correa, so there's that?

I don't know that the rotation is necessarily set for the season, but it's feeling like Montas isn't going to move any time soon (and will command a big haul at the trade deadline just like Berrios did for the Twins last year) so Oakland is sitting back much the same way the twins have done and aren't going to move him just to move him, but want some big-time offers. It's hard to know just what that means for the Twins and I feel like with a lot of their most gifted prospects that we would be selling low on them. Our top pitching prospects are almost all coming off injury, Royce Lewis is coming off an injury and hasn't played in quite a while, Austin Martin had some struggles where his power potential has been called into question, so while Twins fans love a lot of these guys and see their vast potential...as trade chips, they're all going to get discounted to some extent by other teams. While I'm into trading for Montas, who is a really good pitcher, it may be that to get him right now would cost a pretty ridiculous haul. We just signed Chris Archer, and his bio is a warning sign on this kind of deal: Archer had a stronger overall track record when he was dealt (but wasn't coming off a peak season) and yielded a big haul for TB, and then things went to hell for him. Glasnow & Meadows each had more value last season alone than Archer did for the past 4 seasons combined. So It's fair to be wobbly about how many prospects you believe in you should give up to get Montas.

For Manea, I was reminded of what Gleeman was saying on the podcast this week: how much better is he than say, Josh Winder in our eyes? He's more proven, but if it takes Winder plus another top 10 prospect to get Manea then...maybe that's not all that exciting if you think Winder is ready this season and can be as good right now. Manea reduces risk, but doesn't necessarily make a major improvement in the team.

I think the twins will consider being active at the deadline to add if the team is positioned well. At the same time, I do think  the "next 5" (Winder, Canterino, Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, and Strotman) we have coming up if/when Gray, Bundy, Archer, Ober, and Ryan falter/get hurt is stronger and more ready than the group we had last year? (And that's assuming they run Duran into the bullpen this season)

So the thought process, based on where we are now makes sense to me. I think they should have done better to secure higher-end pitching during the early days of free agency, and they deserve to be poked for that, because I think they could have done that and still made the deals that led to Correa. But I think I would rather give the younger guys a chance to make it in MLB over dealing 2 of them for Manea, and I think it's reasonable that the Twins aren't interested in giving up a package that includes Royce lewis/Austin Martin and 3 of Sands/Winder/Canterino/Balazovic/Varland/Woods-Richardson/Duran. (and who knows if right now that's even enough for Oakland, since so many of our best prospects had injuries last season?)

The Twins should roll with this group right now ... unless the price goes much lower on Montas. I thought the miss was not making an adequate offer for Bassitt, because the Twins could have bested the Mets offer. Another big miss was not taking a risk on Carlos Rodon. Of course, we all know that so many little things can ruin any signings or trades. Winder looks good to me - patient, mature, and not afraid to attack or make a mistake. He will need to wait for his chance. There will be opportunities for young pitchers to make an impression both starting and in relief. But, yeah, the prices are too high and it is time to see who has the pitches to keep the Twins in a game until their offense shines, because the bats should be solid.

47 minutes ago, roger said:

Wow!

May I suggest that Twins fans sit back, open a cool one and relax.  Let's give the starters they have three or four weeks and then see how they are doing after four or five starts.  What would people prefer?  That they give Oakland whatever they wanted in a trade, gut the team for the next decade?  Gotta believe the fact that Oakland didn't get a trade done tells us alot about what their asking price was.

And who knows, after a brutal 2021 this team may just be very exciting to follow.

 

 

I agree that fans need to relax and enjoy baseball once the season begins, and I also agree that it would be a colossal mistake to grossly overpay for Montas or Manaea.  But, I think many fans are rightfully frustrated with the FO over how they handled free agency last fall and this spring.  In free agency, a team is not subject to the whims and unreasonable requests of trading partners.  The Twins may need to overpay some given that we are not a "choice" location for some big time players, but it would cost them nothing in terms of prospect capital.  IF they had signed someone last fall from the deepest and best free agent pitching class in history, the could have added Gray and had a solid to excellent starting rotation.  Then, when Correa fell in their lap, the Twins would have been in great shape, and could have added another short term piece at the deadline if needed.  However, the fact that I think the FO messed up the offseason does not mean I am not excited to see what this team can do.  Once they say "play ball", the offseason is history and we cheer for our team.

58 minutes ago, roger said:

 What would people prefer? 

A rotation that isn't composed almost entirely of bounce "bounce back candidates," and question marks? They have a lineup that can win playoff games, even with the downgrade at C and possibly 3B. There is/was plenty of room for at least 2, probably 3, solid starters while still prioritizing getting the younger arms innings. 

You don't have to worry about gutting the team; if they don't have at minimum 2 reliable mid to front end starters from this prospect group that job is already well underway. 

15 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

A rotation that isn't composed almost entirely of bounce "bounce back candidates," and question marks? They have a lineup that can win playoff games, even with the downgrade at C and possibly 3B. There is/was plenty of room for at least 2, probably 3, solid starters while still prioritizing getting the younger arms innings. 

You don't have to worry about gutting the team; if they don't have at minimum 2 reliable mid to front end starters from this prospect group that job is already well underway. 

Had they not been traded that could have been Gil and Ynoa

1 hour ago, roger said:

Wow!

May I suggest that Twins fans sit back, open a cool one and relax.  Let's give the starters they have three or four weeks and then see how they are doing after four or five starts.  What would people prefer?  That they give Oakland whatever they wanted in a trade, gut the team for the next decade?  Gotta believe the fact that Oakland didn't get a trade done tells us alot about what their asking price was.

And who knows, after a brutal 2021 this team may just be very exciting to follow.

 

 

I remember how Martin Perez pitched like Johan Santana for the first month of the season... That said, I feel the current rotation is probably good enough for this team to win 84 ish games and sneak into the playoffs. Even Maenea doesn't move the needle much at this point, unless Archer, Bundy and Ober are all awful, in which case we won't be buyers at the deadline anyway. 

Let's not let the FO off our fandom hook.  They blew it.  A great SS may save us 3 - 5 games, but a great pitcher can mean 10.   Having our current rotation, I hate to say this, but I would just as soon see Bundy and Archer blow out quickly and get replaced by our young guys.  I want a high ceiling - I am not worried about the floor. 

I have said it often and I'll say it again...  Much of the bitching aimed at the front office for not buying free agents or for not trading for (insert your favorite name here) is backed up by nothing.  Does anyone know for a fact (and saying that "it seems obvious" is not a fact) that the front office did NOT pursue free agent top-tier pitching?  I don't think so.  Does anyone know for a fact (see previous sentence) that it was the Twins that didn't get a trade done with Oakland?  I don't think so.  It takes two sides (or three if you want to include the agents of free agents) to complete any transaction (either signing a free agent or making a trade).  The Twins' front office can only make attempts.

For this team to contend it will take a career year from most of the team. It has happened before, and it can happen this year too. At this point, every single team is highly unlikely to be in the world series so the Twins are in good company. Time to bid this winter a hearty farewell and start watching some young guys get paid a lot of money to play games while I drink beer. 

So many comments here and over the past few weeks/months relate to not signing a big name starter in free agency.  I think we all need to realize that likely isn’t going to happen.  It appears this FO is not willing to sign any pitcher to a long contract.  I don’t know whether their limit is four or five years, but it likely was one of the reasons they weren’t able to get Berrios signed to an extension.  Considering how many of those long contracts end up being a disaster, can certainly understand their position.

5 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Let's not let the FO off our fandom hook.  They blew it.  A great SS may save us 3 - 5 games, but a great pitcher can mean 10.   Having our current rotation, I hate to say this, but I would just as soon see Bundy and Archer blow out quickly and get replaced by our young guys.  I want a high ceiling - I am not worried about the floor. 

I agree w/ you Mike that we can't let this FO off of the hook. They have a very hard time to commit and go for it, it's in their nature to punt. I think they wanted to trade Buxton from the start until they were pressured to sign him. Seem like they only do the right thing only when pressured. 

But your attitude toward Bundy & Archer, frankly stinks. We have only Gray that can give us regularily 5+ innings throughout the season and he is very doubtful that he can starting the season. That leaves us with openers and potentially strong long relief corp that can rotate young pitchers which we can effeciently evalute. I'm not a fan of Bundy, I think he has a low ceiling and floor, I'm very different with Archer which has a very high ceiling. But if they are used correctly they can man a very successful pitching corp. 

If they blow up the whole system blows up, that will put a lot of extra pressure on the young inexperienced pitchers & prospect, which some may never recover. That will hurt not only Bundy & Archer but the team and set back whole pitching pipeline which is already behind. So if you want our prospects to succeeed you better cheer for both Bundy and Archer.

Opening day isnt a trade deadline. Apparently the price Oakland is asking is too high. The waiting game could be dangerous too 

I agree with JMlease.  While I do feel like the FO fell just short of pulling off the impossible I still think they might be OK.  Minnesota is trying to be more like Oakland and Tampa than New York and LA.  They need to build a base rotation with good young arms from the farm because they are not going to buy their way out of their pitching issues.  Even without that last top of the rotation starter that would make this team look better I think the young guys could lift this team up.  Maybe one of them is that top of the rotation arm we have been waiting for.  There is a lot of potential to sift through this year and more on the way.

I know it feels unsatisfying to have missed out on one more top arm but the depth feels for real this year.  There could be up to six pitchers at AAA that could be impact arms for the team in Winder, Duran, Balazovich, Henriquez, Sands and Strotman.  There are some arms at AA that while not added to 40 man if they perform could still be options this year in Canterino, SWR, Varland, Vallimont and maybe even Sean Mooney or Sawyer Gipson-long could be options if they have outstanding years.  That feels like a lot of fire power to help the pen and rotation.

This year could go either way and it is likely going to be a bumpy ride, but if those guys learn and start to perform better as the year goes on this could be a strong enough team to make some noise.  Will just have to wait and see.

4 hours ago, roger said:

Wow!

May I suggest that Twins fans sit back, open a cool one and relax.  Let's give the starters they have three or four weeks and then see how they are doing after four or five starts.  What would people prefer?  That they give Oakland whatever they wanted in a trade, gut the team for the next decade?  Gotta believe the fact that Oakland didn't get a trade done tells us alot about what their asking price was.

And who knows, after a brutal 2021 this team may just be very exciting to follow.

 

 

What an amazing idea!!!  This way, when these other teams see how desperate the Twins are when they start 5-15 they'll for sure lower their asking prices for their SP assets in a trade.  

3 hours ago, dex8425 said:

I remember how Martin Perez pitched like Johan Santana for the first month of the season... That said, I feel the current rotation is probably good enough for this team to win 84 ish games and sneak into the playoffs. Even Maenea doesn't move the needle much at this point, unless Archer, Bundy and Ober are all awful, in which case we won't be buyers at the deadline anyway. 

"win 84ish games" !?!?!?!   That's some top flight comedy right there.  Right now, this is a 90+ loss team.  Last year's rotation was considerably better than this one, and they lost 89 games.   And that's not even talking about the bullpen.

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I have said it often and I'll say it again...  Much of the bitching aimed at the front office for not buying free agents or for not trading for (insert your favorite name here) is backed up by nothing.  Does anyone know for a fact (and saying that "it seems obvious" is not a fact) that the front office did NOT pursue free agent top-tier pitching?  I don't think so.  Does anyone know for a fact (see previous sentence) that it was the Twins that didn't get a trade done with Oakland?  I don't think so.  It takes two sides (or three if you want to include the agents of free agents) to complete any transaction (either signing a free agent or making a trade).  The Twins' front office can only make attempts.

Yes, we all know for a fact that the Twins did NOT pursue free agent top tier pitching.  We know this because this philosophy has been imbedded within the organization like a cancer for the last 30 years.  Seriously brah, what team have you been watching all of these years????  

1 hour ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

Yes, we all know for a fact that the Twins did NOT pursue free agent top tier pitching.  We know this because this philosophy has been imbedded within the organization like a cancer for the last 30 years.  Seriously brah, what team have you been watching all of these years????  

Brah?

1 hour ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

Yes, we all know for a fact that the Twins did NOT pursue free agent top tier pitching.  We know this because this philosophy has been imbedded within the organization like a cancer for the last 30 years.  Seriously brah, what team have you been watching all of these years????  

That is your opinion.  It's not a fact.

56 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

There is no try. There is only do or not do.

That makes no sense whatsoever.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/padres-open-to-trading-from-rotation-catching-depth.html#comments

Padres seem to be in the mix to trade a starter and they are in need of outfielders.  Kepler or Larnach should get the conversation started.  Add some prospects depending on the return or eat Myers or Hosmers contract to pay for it.

I don't think Falvey's comments were aimed at the fans. They were likely poker bluffs for the GMs at the other end of any in-progress or postponed trade talks. "Naw, we're fine, we like where we're at"...

Given that, yes it is disappointing once again to be scraping the dregs from the bargain bin and the rehab center. Thoracic outlet surgery. Hmm. Correa is likely not impressed. How many Shoemaker experiments do we have to suffer through while wasting a lineup that had been primed for post season action? I wonder if a collective morale sag caused so much underachieving last season. Hopefully there is a trade path started for acquiring quality pitching help. And there are teams other than Oakland to match up with.

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

That makes no sense whatsoever.

Yea it does. This is pro sports. You don’t get consolation prizes or participation medals. You get judged by the results, nothing else  

With little exceptions here and there, I have been a plaudit for the FO. I think they've done a pretty amazing job from re-vamping the ENTIRE past singular coaching strategy to being more focused on the individual,  to coaching hires...some who have been pilfered...to a more modern analytic system that makes sense. Even a few moves they've made didn't turn out, but made sense at the time.

But I'm calling them out right now!

Even uncertain if they could move Donaldson, they KNEW they needed to add to the rotation. The payroll was low enough they could have easily added ONE of many quality, solid arms out there in November for an easily affordable  $14M ish deal for 3yrs. I GET that we're looking at a ton of young arms getting ready. But if you want to truly be competitive, you AT LEAST, sign one solid arm that doesn't break you. Opportunity will present itself during a 162 game season.

That's all they had to do.

THEN,  post lockout the world turns and stuff happens and we are where we are. We have Gray with pitcher X and Correa and a rotation and pen and lineup that looks like a 90+ win team with a real chance. And STILL opportunity for the young arms.

And I'm ignoring brining in a RH hitting OF to balance the 2022 lineup  on the cheap which could actually make a difference. 

Our FO SHOULD have been smart enough to realize they might, or might not move Donaldson. But payroll says they should have easily been able to sign a single quality SP beyond a flier like Bundy or Archer.

There are a couple of good/great arms about ready. I get that. But for 2022 and being ",competitive ", I think ego got in the way and they might have blown a chance.

I sure hope I'm wrong.

11 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Let's not let the FO off our fandom hook.  They blew it.  A great SS may save us 3 - 5 games, but a great pitcher can mean 10.   Having our current rotation, I hate to say this, but I would just as soon see Bundy and Archer blow out quickly and get replaced by our young guys.  I want a high ceiling - I am not worried about the floor. 

Absolutely. They blew it. This is what we have. I don't mind if the yankee visitors flame out too. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride when it comes to pitching. If we have a good one.... then they get rid of him. Even if our bats (which recently weren't rated that great compared to the other teams..... https://www.mlb.com/news/teams-with-best-lineups-in-2022?partnerId=zh-20220328-570896-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20220328-570896-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=cdS1sErUAwyyoJTxwdz6C3f55NjhaPvLCdJ8smhEVxgoRo7JZe74VVRz0Lc6np6Y&bt_ts=1648475031986  ....... and didn't make the top 10 even..... score enough runs to get us into the playoffs, it sets us up to continue the record losing streak in the playoffs.

8 hours ago, Linus said:

Yea it does. This is pro sports. You don’t get consolation prizes or participation medals. You get judged by the results, nothing else  

 

 

 

 

 

I agree with your point.  The comment you reacted to was about if his statement was really a fact or his interpretation of past events.  So I didn't think it made any sense as far as the discussion was concerned.  And by the way, I think participation medals are the stupidest thing ever introduced to youth sports.