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Probably the best example of a team successfully flipping a player from last season was the Oakland A's handling of Rich Hill. Despite not expecting to be competitive, the A's signed Hill to a one-year, $6 million deal over the winter. From the moment the signing was announced it was speculated that the A's were out to flip Hill at the trade deadline.
Entering his age 36 season, it was no guarantee Hill would replicate his impressive 2015 numbers that came from just four starts. But Hill was able to thrive over 14 starts with Oakland and was packaged with Josh Reddick to land a trio of promising pitching prospects from the Dodgers: Jharel Cotton, Frankie Montas and Grant Holmes.
The Cubs using this strategy with Scott Feldman in 2013 stick out as maybe the greatest example of the strategy. Unlike Hill, Feldman was coming off a terrible season when he signed with the Cubs, posting a 5.09 ERA. But with past success and youth on his side, Chicago gave him a one-year, $6 million deal.
Feldman turned in the best performance of his career over 15 starts as a Cub, and was sent as the headliner in a deal for Jake Arrieta. I'm sure even the most optimistic person the the Cubs' front office didn't see that working out as well as it did, but even at the time the logic was sound. Acquiring younger players with more upside and more years of control always makes sense.
Even with that being the case, those trades rarely work out even close to that well. Now that Arrieta is a Cy Young pitcher and the Cubs are world champions that's looking like one of the greatest trades of all time.
This is clearly not on that same level, but the Twins were able to flip Fernando Abad last season. No, Pat Light is not a franchise-changing piece, but the Twins did well to turn a guy they signed to a minor league deal into a younger player with upside who has more years of team control. That's the goal.
So how might the Twins employ the tactic this offseason?
Looking at guys who have the potential to be larger scale flips, someone who sticks out as a potential reclamation project among hitters is old friend Carlos Gomez. Levine's Rangers acquired him midseason from the Astros and saw him turn things around.
After receiving MVP consideration in 2013 and 2014 things fell apart for Gomez. In his time with the Astros, he hit even worse than when he was a Twin, which eventually led to his release. But in a short sample of 130 at-bats with the Rangers Gomez had a .905 OPS. He's seeking a multi-year deal, but you never know how the market will turn out.
We saw Ian Desmond and Dexter Fowler sit on the market until late February last offseason. Both had to settle for one-year deals. It's difficult to predict who, but it seems likely somebody in this free agent class will end up being a great bargain for the last few teams with money left to spend.
On the pitching side, there are plenty of guys who could dramatically increase their value, but no one who jumps out to the extent Hill did last offseason. Brett Anderson is probably at the top of the list.
Anderson has been one of the least healthy pitchers in the game since debuting with Oakland as a 21-year-old back in 2009. He turns 29 in February, and has had his share of both successes and failures over his career. Overall he has an ERA+ of 105, a 3.70 FIP and 2.77 K/BB ratio for his career. The combination of suppressed value and potential upside make Anderson an ideal candidate to flip.
Here are some other intriguing names among starting pitchers ...
Derek Holland: When news first broke Texas declined his option it didn't really move the needle for me, but I'm starting to come around. I'm not sure we've seen a healthy Holland at any point over the last three seasons. In 2013 he was the eighth-best pitcher in the AL per fWAR and entering his age 30 season there should still be something left in the tank. Signing him to a one-year deal would be an excellent low risk, potentially high reward deal.
Henderson Alvarez: He's only thrown 22 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, but is also still just 26-years-old. When healthy he can sit in the mid-90s, but he's more of a control specialist than a strikeout pitcher.
Jake Peavy: He's 35 and had a 5.54 ERA last season. But Eno Sarris recently highlighted his encouraging spin rates over at Fangraphs. If he's willing to pitch for a last-place team, it shouldn't be a problem landing him on an affordable one-year pact.
Jorge De La Rosa: The veteran longtime Rockies hurler has actually pitched relatively well in Coors Field. Still, it would be interesting to see if he could thrive if he gets outside of pitching half his games in baseball's oddest environment.
Out of the bullpen I see Santiago Casilla or Neftali Feliz as good options to flip. Either could be inserted directly into the closer role and rack up value quickly.
In his offseason blueprint, Seth offered up David Hernandez as an affordable veteran who could be a fit for the Twins' bullpen. He also fits the bill of someone who could be flipped.
Another strategy I'd be interested in would be converting a pitcher into a new role. Why not get creative and sign Travis Wood as a starter, or Andrew Cashner to pitch out of the bullpen? Might a guy like Wood even take a pay cut for the chance to start again? Who knows, maybe.
I am under the assumption payroll will be reduced, but hopefully Falvey and Levine can talk the Pohlads into making one of these deals. If things work out, the return on investment can be enormous. Who would you target as a free agent to flip?
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