Cleaning Up the Twins’ 40-Man Roster Will Take Some Work

I am sure they will put the emphasis on the wrong players, as they always do. And, will ensure they miss out on FA's due to ensuring they extend someone currently under contract to a ridiculous deal, while other clubs are signing pieces to make their clubs better. See last off-season's priorities; Buxton and Bundy before the lockout, while other clubs were making deals.

KEEPERS: Duran, Gray, Henriquez, Jax, Maeda, Moran, Ober, Ryan, Varland, Winder, Woods Richardson, Jeffers, Lewis, Miranda, Polanco, Buxton, Celestino, Kirilloff, Gordon, Larnach, Kepler, Wallner. (22 players)

FREE AGENTS: Bundy, Archer, Fulmer, Leon, Correa, G. Sanchez, Sano, A. Sanchez, B. Hamilton

ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE (I Think): Urshela, Pagan, Paddack, Mahle, Alcala, Stashak, Thielbar, Coulombe, Cave, Lopez, Arraez

REPLACEMENT LEVEL: Romero, Megill, Palacios, Garlick, Contreras, C. Hamilton

QUESTIONABLE PROSPECTS: Smeltzer, Sands, Enlow, Balazovic

So, 8 free agents leaving, 6 guys that could easily be replaced thru by others or resigned to minor league contracts, maybe 2 of questionable prospect gone, and 3-6 that could easily not reach an arbitration decision (Coulombe, Stashak, Cave probably, possibly Urshela, Pagan, And Thielbar in limbo).

MINOR LEAGUE CONSIDERATIONS: Helman, Sisk*, Severino*, Canterino*, Julien*, Headrick, Funderburk, Prato, Isola. Javier (free agent), Camargo* (free agent), Probably, at this point, only NEED to keep 3-4 of these fer sure. (*ones I would add)

I feel they will DFA Pagan (what reason to keep him) I would rather they sign Fullmer (probably about the same money).  IF they want to take a chance sign Mahle and Paddock to extensions, lower the Average value.  Mahle may take it due to the risk he never makes it back for any length of time.  They still need to do roster cleanup, I could also see Celestino being a cut, looking for a better option, since they have Gordon to back up all the outfield positions.  One high value BP piece and one high value starter can replace some the question marks.  They should have the money to pay Correa, since it will be a while until a lot of the players reach arbitration.  Urshala is another question mark, as where does he play, though I think a trade is more likely than a non-tender.  

Caleb Hamilton should be on your DFA list. Megill is cheap, throws hard and has options. They probably keep him.

Don't see Urbina as a need to add to 40 man. He only hit .250 at low A, and a short season. Can't see someone taking a shot at him or if they did, Urbina having success next year at the MLB level.

What about Lawyerson at AA? After Varland and SWR moved up to AAA, Headrick and Lawyerson were battling to be considered the best pitcher at Wichita. 

Caleb Hamilton and Stashak can be DFA'd. No need to add Urbina. Keep Megill. I'm thinking maybe we should add Camargo. If he's good defensively, I might do that.

You have to put Paddock on the 40 man but exactly when can you move him back to the 60 day IL?

11 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

You have to put Paddock on the 40 man but exactly when can you move him back to the 60 day IL?

I think 1st day of spring training.

I have no idea - who do we trade?  Most trades have many many for one that reduces the 40 man.  I do not see Hamilton, Leon, Sanchez coming back and wish that Pagan and Lopez weren't.  But my faith in the FO decisions leaves me questioning which decisions will be made because they love the strong arm - Pagan, Lopez, Megill - which do nothing for me if they do not know how to pitch.  

All of us see Sano and Correa gone, and most want Bundy and Archer gone if we can bring in better (me included).

I can see the Twins offering a lower cost contract to Pagan or get DFA’d.  maybe a 1 year 2.5 - 3 million maybe compromise with some incentives.  
 

Garlick is currently the RH OF.  He could stay or go.

Smetltzer could stay or go.  
 

Megill could stay or go but I lean more towards stay.  
 

Why Urbana at this point? 
 

That’s all I got for now

There is another category - will be placed on 60 day DL to start the season. That's Canterino, Paddack and Lewis for sure. That allows them to sign 3 players to minor league contracts with the understanding that they will get converted to major league deals after the start of spring training.

The Twins need a start of year shortstop( assuming Correa gone and Lewis still rehabbing) along with a solid backup catcher( preferably left-handed/w good defense). They also will need all the controllable pitchers they can keep their hands on(expected injuries).  Spare replacement level or less outfielders and middle infielders not so much, but a good backup outfielder won't hurt either. 

What do they need to add to the roster this offseason? A shortstop, a catcher, a starting pitcher and a couple relievers.

18 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

You all are saying Pagán should be DFAed, technically it is non-tendered. The same with Cave and (I think) Stashak. If they are eligible for arb, the way they are separated from the club is non-tender of a contract. 

Ok non-tendered.  Stashak is someone if healthy will get a lowball offer to return.  Under 1 million and probably a split contract.  900k in majors ….

In addition to Caleb Hamilton, which many have previously mentioned, I can say with 100% confidence that Billy Hamilton won't be back on a MLB contract.

And I would put the odds on Aaron Sanchez, who I have also not seen mentioned, being DFA'd at a much higher probability than Megill, who himself is probably more likely to be DFA'd than Coulumbe.

I would be shocked if Garlick was DFA'd. He fills a crucial need for the Twins lineup due to the fact that he mashes LHP to a point that he was among the league leaders in OPS vs LHP while he was playing healthy. 

Subtracting Hamilton, Hamilton, & Sanchez from the 40, and adding Garlick to it, leaves 5 spots to to fill with acquisitions this offseason, enough to grab a big game SP, a solid RP, a stopgap SS, and a backup C, with one spot left for a wild card.

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I think the Twins will try to pull the plug on Garlick. I believe he will be arbitration eligible and they will non-tender him. Why cut him loose? He is a specialist in an era of short benches and he suffered three separate disabling injuries. He’ll be 31 before spring training starts and it doesn’t figure that he’ll be healthier or more productive than he was this year. 
 

That is not to say that the Twins might not offer him a minor league contract with an opportunity to win a spot this spring. He also still has an option IIRC. 

I like the reasoning, but I still disagree with your projected outcome.

If they release him, they will likely sign a part-time RHB COF to replace him that will cost $6mil-$8mil. Why spend that when you can have Garlick for $1mil or so?

If the FO plans on signing a more well-rounded, everyday RHB COF/DH type bat, then Garlick is gone.

But if they are only looking for a platoon RHB COF, they don't get much better than Garlick and he will be MUCH cheaper than anyone they can acquire from outside the org. 

Almost an impossible task to speculate since we just don't know about 2023 payroll, or how the coaches and FO feel about certain players. I mean, just as an example, do they really value Smeltzer as a 7-9 SP option with the idea he might be a great fit as a middle/long man in 2023, something they need but have been lacking the past few years? If so, he's probably a keeper. But maybe they see him as a split contract milb contract and ML invite. Just an example.

52 guys rostered right now. Just to re-hash, Archer, Bundy, Coulombe, Fulmer, Sanchez, Sachez, Hamilton, Hamilton, Leon, Correa, Sano, Cave, and Contreras all gone. 52 minus 13 brings us to 39. 

Personally, despite their stubbornness to hold on to Pagan, they need to add from within and they need from without. He's questionable, but I think he's gone or traded for a bag of balls. Palacios just hasn't shown anything with the bat, unfortunately, in SSS to indicate he should be kept. Romero spent almost the entire year on the IL, as did Stashak. Even if you like their arms when healthy, neither has shown enough to warrant being protected. Megill throws hard, has a really nice breaking ball, looked good early, and then looked bad. Do you keep a 31yo Garlick when you really need to find someone better? And then you come to the Smeltzer question I mentioned as an example. 

You MIGHT keep EITHER Pagan or Megill. But I don't see it. A healthy Alcala is better than both. You need middle arms and have a bunch of guys to look at in that role that Pagan and Megill don't fill. Smeltzer might be kept because he can potentially fill a certain role. So that's a good 6 more spots you can free up.

That 33 spots with 7 open slots. Let's assume 1 quality SP to have a good rotation and depth because there are so many question marks attached to what's coming back. Add Fulmer back in, or MAYBE someone you like better. We need a catcher, and probably have to have a 3rd on the roster, which MIGHT be Leon back, or Isola, or Camargo. MAYBE. And an actual, quality, RH hitting OF is a MUST.  And you almost have to find a temporary SS. So that's at least 5 you need to add, if not 6.

The roster suddenly jumps to 38 or 39. One more spot opens if you leave Smeltzer off, in my isted scenario. 

I've counted the roster numbers 4 times and I keep coming up with 52, not 50. Is my math off? Is the Twins website showing incorrectly and a couple guys already DFA'ed are being listed? Please tell me if I've made a mistake because I keep seeing 52, letting everyone go except maybe Smeltzer, in my example, adding 5 or 6, and suddenly you're at 38-39 before you want to add someone else besides a #3 catcher. So you have room to add just 1 or 2 prospects? Unless my math is just wrong, another 2 or 3 will have to be removed in order to add. 

Despite a preponderance opinion the Twins have a lot of "dead weight" to let go, I don't think that's true. Do you let someone like Enlow face rule 5 after coming off surgery and risk him? Do you not protect Canterino while rehabbing him? Despite recent debate/discussion that the Twins milb system is weak, there are some good players facing rule 5 you'd like to keep and might not have room to protect, hoping they aren't selected, or are returned. And there are a couple AAAA players that might turn out OK and helpful that might look elsewhere rather than coming back on a milb deal. But ultimately, this team is not devoid of talent, even with the obvious deductions, and they might have to roll the dice on a couple of young players not protected in order to keep others.

The 40 person roster is the least of the Twins concerns. I believe they could easily cut to 35 without too much angst.

9 hours ago, Peter Labuza said:

Do we know at what point Correa needs to announce as free agent before his club option kicks in? I guess before Rule 5....

5 days after the end of the World Series.

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

Do you let someone like Enlow face rule 5

Wouldn't be Rule 5. Would be a DFA and available to anyone to put on their 40 man and keep in the minors.

After making him an overslot priority draft choice and protecting him post surgery  just as he was looking like the player you drafted and then having an expected OK but not great re-hab 2022 year, do you NOT protect him again?

And I'm sure you're right about DFA vs rule 5. But the end results remain the same, don't they? You keep him or risk him. 

I keep Fulmer and J. Lopez to fortify my BP with a couple vets who have upside (Jorge Lopez isn't going anywhere).  I certainly protect Canterino.  He's got tremendous upside and after all they've been through with him just protect him and let him rehab and hopefully see what you have with him eventually.  Keep Urshela for Pete's Sake.  He's been solid all year.  We need a SS if Correa isn't back.  We need catchers.  We need a RH hitting OF'er.  And we have Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and Kepler.  We don't need FOUR LH hitting OF'ers.  One needs to be packaged in a trade, hopefully for pitching and/or a catcher.  

There is a TON of dead weight just waiting to be cut loose.  Wipe the board clean and start over.   

7 hours ago, DocBauer said:

But the end results remain the same, don't they? You keep him or risk him. 

Yes. Enlow and Balazovic have some similarities. Both were on the 40 man all year without playing for the Twins. I think they were the only 2 to do this. Enlow seems to have done what the Twins expected this year coming off of surgery. Balazovic was supposed to be with the Twins by year-end. DFA either one and someone scoops them up. Since the Twins went to the trouble of keeping these two on the 40 man all year, I don't see us giving up on them over the winter.

Canterino will do the same next year so Enlow and Balazovic have to make progress next spring.