By the Numbers: The Twins’ Biggest Missed Opportunity

So what happens when the 14 prosoects we aquired last summer contribute 20 WAR in 2 or 3 years?....

Great work. There is however one step missing and that's the distinction between trades for established players vs trades for MiLB players or MLB players that have yet to become established. The two trades represent significantly different strategies. The starting rotation for Cleveland you mentioned were all acquired as prospects. This is an absolutely crucial distinction if the purpose of the analysis is the evaluate the role of various acquisition strategies. 

While it's debatable, I would not use the cumulative WAR for the entire roster. The 1WAR players are not responsible for getting a team to the playoffs.The question is ... How where did the impact players acquired.

The one variable in this discussion is the Yankee team.  For 60 years I have watched the Yankees consider the rest of the teams, or at least the poor teams to be their farm system and therefore every player is part of their own pool.  It is just a matter of when they will gave that person in by call up, trade, or free agent.

I'll take that bet.

The point is clear. This team has been bad at trading and signing free agents. Coincidentally, that's the only part this FO has control over, since no draft picks or international signings can reasonably be expected to be up yet. But someday they will play for the present. Or sign good free agents. Cruz should be good, but my expectations are pretty low for the rest.

The current regime is very good at trading. If you are talking about TR, there was no one left to trade after they obtained Meyer and May. My expectations are high for the rest. Guess that ties it up, 1 to 1.

I like the Odo trade, would like it more if they're get some top of the rotation guy (s) too. Not convinced on any others at all.

Jim Callis wrote an article recently, stating we were one of 5 teams that improved our farm system the most. Can't help but notice, the national experts are much higher on our favorite team, than many on the board.

Also, top of the rotation guys don't grow on trees and every team is looking for them. To get anyone to answer the phone, I would guess you're talking a minimum of Thorpe and Graterol.

Here's the Twins biggest recent misfire.

Paul Molitor.

Though I was (mistakenly) of the opinion that Gardenhire had gone stale, truth be told 2014 was the last year the Twins hit the ball really well and many of the hitters on the 2014 team never hit the ball as well ever again.

The 2014 pitching was terrible, but we know now this wasn't Gardenhire's fault. Without Santana and later Berrios, Molitor's years would have been at that same catastrophic level of starting pitching.

Firing Gardenhire was a mistake, I'm sorry to say. His absence was felt immediately.

I don't have access to that. Was that about the trades, or draft picks improving the farm.

They have a super deep farm, which is great if you actually do something with it. They haven't traded for MLB players. And, until some graduate and help the team more than a replacement player, it's all projection, and not value. Which, again, great. But so far, not much help.

Callis is at MLB.com so you should have access( I read the article at TwinkieTown). He gave a big picture view and I'm too lazy to go back and view the specifics. You know about Odorizzi, an IFA was traded for Cave, as was Ynoa for someone I can't recall. The new regime has only been here for a little over 2 years, so it hasn't had time to develope.

A very interesting and informative article. Thanks for doing the grunt work, Greg.

I'd like to see a comparison of the semi-contending also-rans. As trade deadline sellers, for a third of the season, the Twins numbers naturally take a hit while the playoff buyers naturally get a boost. While I doubt the difference is considerable, it's one of many variables to consider.

In any case, I agree with your main point that the better teams better themselves in part through trades. And a GM doesn't have to be a master of fleecing other teams to succeed. Good deals often help both sides improve.

So far in trades we have we traded for Garcia then traded for Littel, Ennsburg. We traded Kintzker for 500k in international bonus and watson. We traded 500k international signing bonus twice for a minor league C, and Pearson OF. We traded a low level minir leaguer for Cave. We traded an A ball SS for Odorizzi. Then we traded Escobar, Dozier, Pressly, Lynn and Duke and our closer for 14 prospects. While i hated selling at the deadline these are good moves for the longterm. And this is a lot of trades for 2 years. Not Dipoto level but still a lot of trades.

Here's the Twins biggest recent misfire.

 

Paul Molitor.

 

Though I was (mistakenly) of the opinion that Gardenhire had gone stale, truth be told 2014 was the last year the Twins hit the ball really well and many of the hitters on the 2014 team never hit the ball as well ever again.

 

The 2014 pitching was terrible, but we know now this wasn't Gardenhire's fault. Without Santana and later Berrios, Molitor's years would have been at that same catastrophic level of starting pitching.

 

Firing Gardenhire was a mistake, I'm sorry to say. His absence was felt immediately.

His presence was felt immediately? You mean how they won 13 more games after he was fired? I agree with part of what you said, but firing Gardy was the right move and it that seemed like our first move from stepping away from the "country club" feel this team had. I do think Molitor was a poor manager, but I think you're overestimating how much he affected the team. 

Retroactively it would have been nice if the team would have started the rebuild from 2014 on, with a new front office and outside hire as the manager. Kinda feels like TR was treading water by hiring Molitor and hanging on for a couple more years.

There are 8 position players on a team plus the DH. Baseball is in a better position than any other sport to be able to screen players because there are youth leagues, high school, college, plus a well established multi level minor league system. In addition, baseball is played world wide and the Latin American influx of great players is now a huge part of rosters. More and more Far Eastern/Oriental players are coming into the Major Leagues.

Given all of this world wide exposure that players get and the ability to use technology to communicate visually with players and coaches world wide, there is no excuse for not fielding a competitive team at the Major League level and it is classic laziness to look for an easy way out. Reading data and looking at numbers is the easy, lazy way out. Staying in constant contact with coaches and teams world wide and using technology to assist in screening players the old fashioned way is the answer and always has been. Its called scouting followed by player development. Go ahead, sit in a room and look at cumulative WAR stats or whatever. Then continue to wonder why 70-80 win seasons (or worse) are the norm.