gagu
Verified Member
-
Joined
-
Last visited
Reputation Activity
-
gagu reacted to Nate Palmer for an article, 3 Third Baseman Trades That Could Provide the Twins a Productive BatThe Minnesota Twins officially (again) lost Carlos Correa and one of their most impactful bats to the New York Mets. That still leaves the Twins with a huge void to fill in the middle of their lineup. It will be impossible to replace Correa truly, but there may be a path to replace some of his value by acquiring a few different third basemen that could be available via trade.
Rafael Devers , Red Sox
Stop me if you have heard this before. The Red Sox have an impact, all-star level player ready to hit free agency, and we aren’t sure if they will keep them in town on a new contract. We have seen the team in Boston dance this dance with both Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts , only to see one traded and the other walk. Should the Twins maybe try and benefit this time around?
Rafael Devers has been an excellent hitting third baseman in the middle of Boston’s lineup and is in his last year of arbitration. This past season he hit .295/.358/.521, which was good for a 141 wRC+. Defensively he may not stay at third base long term as his defensive numbers are already looking a bit ugly, but that didn’t prevent him from putting up a 4.9 fWAR in 2022.
While the last thing the Twins need is another left-handed bat, Devers is in that top tier where handedness matters little. He isn't as bothered by the platoon splits as he only drops to .272/.315/.424 and a .739 OPS when facing lefties. Devers power does drop but overall, but still continues to hold his own.
The sticky part of a trade for Devers is that the acquiring team would want to be assured they could sign him to an extension. Maybe the Twins would be willing to put that Correa money toward the 26-year-old Devers. If so, a package around Jose Miranda could make sense for both sides, especially since the hope is that Miranda would turn into a right-handed hitting version of Devers, but isn’t that quite yet.
Anthony Rendon , Los Angeles Angels
Those who listen to Gleeman and the Geek will have heard the guys talk about the Twins going after “depressed assets.” Anthony Rendon very well could be the poster child of a depressed asset. Bad enough that the Trade Simulator gives Rendon a -132.3 value. By comparison, Trevor Story comes in at -37.4. Rendon has certainly earned that ranking entering the 4th year of his 7-year, $245 million contract.
The past two seasons have seen Rendon’s offensive numbers dip dramatically. The one-time All-Star has only been slightly above replacement level in recent seasons. As his K-rate has gone up and walk-rate down, he only slashed .229/.326/.380 this past season. So why would the Twins want to gamble on an expensive, declining player?
The conversation would start and end with the front offices' confidence in being able to bring Rendon back to his earlier career performances. He already has two things going for him versus the rest of the Twins roster: he is right-handed and hits left-handed pitching well. Last season he sported a .873 OPS when facing lefties. A mark that jumps to .900 over his whole career.
A Rendon acquisition is an absolute gamble, but with Gio Urshela in the fold, the Angels may be willing to get rid of their third baseman. A move that would also clear the payroll in preparation to try and keep Shohei Ohtani .
Eduardo Escobar , New York Mets
In case you missed it earlier, the New York Mets just signed a $315 million third baseman. With that move, rumors are circulating that they may be willing to move the veteran infielder and old friend, Eduardo Escobar. Someone that Cody Christie also highlighted when exploring some former Twins the club could bring back.
Escobar is the most likely out of this list the Twins could acquire and, unfortunately, the one that moves the needle the least. He would bring in another bat to mix into the lineup against left-handers. Eddie’s numbers against lefties in 2022 were .259/.299/.519 with a .817 OPS. and nine home runs.
The tricky thing about Escobar is he is hardly a third baseman at this point in his career. He recorded a -11 DRS and a -7 OAA. So while he could play the position, he may be more of a bat at this point than carry any value as a fielder. Considering how bad the Twins were against left-handed pitching last season, he could still be a valuable addition to the team.
-
gagu reacted to Cody Christie for an article, Can Byron Buxton Pass Mike Trout As Baseball’s Best Center Fielder?MLB Network counts down baseball’s best players as the season starts while also naming the top players at each position. MLB has ranked Trout as the best center fielder, but other players are coming for his crown. Buxton was the 10th-ranked centerfielder entering the 2021 season, and he has risen to the third overall behind Trout and George Springer. Buxton had the highest jump among players that were on the 2021 list.
Buxton’s rise ties to his 2021 performance, where he proved that he could be one of baseball’s most valuable players. His month of April 2021 was one of the best offensive months in team history as he posted a 1.363 OPS. He was limited to 61 games for the year but accumulated 4.5 WAR. His defense also puts him in elite company as the Twins now have one of baseball’s best up-the-middle defenses.
Trout has been otherworldly during his professional career as he has averaged over 9.0 WAR in every season where he’s played at least 130 games. Last season, injuries limited Trout to 36 games, but he still posted a 1.090 OPS. He’s clearly on a path to Cooperstown. He has won three MVPs, been a nine-time All-Star, and won eight Silver Slugger Awards. So, are Buxton and Trout even in the same conversation regarding on-field production?
The answer is "It’s complicated." At the beginning of their pro careers, both Buxton and Trout were considered the best prospect in baseball. Trout flew through the minors and reached the MLB level as a teenager. Buxton had a few more bumps in the road, but he still compiled some tremendous numbers in the minors.
Over their last 162 games, Buxton and Trout have very comparable numbers. Buxton has hit .281 with 41 home runs, a .916 OPS, and 19 stolen bases. Trout has hit .294 with 53 home runs, a 1.047 OPS, and seven stolen bases. Another thing to consider is entering his age-29 season while Trout is a year older. Trout debuted as a 19-year old, while Buxton took a little longer and debuted as a 21-year old.
Buxton is still among baseball’s best defensive center fielders. Last season he had an Outs Above Average in the 94th percentile. This spring, there were some rumblings of the Angels pushing Trout out of centerfield. He is staying in the position to start 2022, but he hasn’t been worth more than one out above average since 2018. It seems likely for Trout to get shifted to a corner outfield spot in the years ahead.
Health is the key for Buxton to be considered in the same conversation as Trout. Minnesota can utilize various strategies to keep Buxton healthy, including his outfield positioning and giving him rest days. The organization has already tried some of these strategies, so it might come down to him being a little luckier in 2022.
With Buxton signed long-term, Twins fans are excited about what he can mean to the team. An entire season of Buxton may be one of the most valuable seasons for any player in team history. Trout is still baseball’s best center fielder, but like a liner to center, Buxton looks to be closing the gap.
What will it take for Buxton to be considered baseball’s best center fielder? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
-
gagu reacted to Nash Walker for an article, Just How Good Is Carlos Correa?The Twins had many routes to choose from this offseason. It started with the most impactful decision: what to do with Byron Buxton. After the team rightly extended him for seven years and $100 million, it became clear that they couldn’t punt on his age-28 season. The idea of Buxton finally staying healthy and putting together an MVP-level campaign only to miss the playoffs was untenable. The Twins picked the path to competition.
With all of the uncertainty, the money available, and the robust free-agent class, there was one certainty: the Twins weren’t landing Carlos Correa. A $300-plus million talent, Correa topped the market. The Twins have never actually paid more than $50 million to a free agent, an incredible fact and one that placed them firmly outside of Correa’s stratosphere.
It was almost more unlikely to happen if Correa wanted a shorter-term deal. Why wouldn’t handfuls of teams line up for a shorter, high-AAV deal for Correa’s prime years? The Twins weren’t the destination, not even close.
Until they were.
If you’re not *still* shocked, I don’t believe you. The Twins took advantage of a surprisingly depressed market and made Correa the highest-paid infielder in MLB history. With one swift and stunning move, the Twins added the best player they’ve had since Joe Mauer’s heydays (in addition to Buxton).
So, just how good is he?
Correa produced 7.1 r-Wins Above Replacement(WAR) in 2021, which would place him in the top-10 for all-time Twins position-player seasons. No Twins hitter has eclipsed 7 WAR since Mauer in 2009, and Chuck Knoblauch's 1996 season was the most recent before Mauer, and that was way back in 1996.
The Twins have never had a shortstop like Correa. His great 34.1 WAR would rank first in Twins history through a position player’s age-26 season, and it isn’t close. Only four Twins hitters have ever eclipsed 6.5 WAR in a season. Correa has done it three times on his own.
Among shortstops who played at least 500 games through their age-26 season, Correa ranks fourth in WAR, and has played in a combined 1,090 less games than the three players ahead of him. Those players? Alex Rodríguez, Cal Ripken Jr., and Robin Yount.
And that’s just the regular season.
The Twins’ postseason hits leader is Kirby Puckett with 30. Correa has 82. Correa has driven in 59 runs in the playoffs, more than the top-four Twins leaders combined (54). Correa has played more postseason games (79) than the Twins have in their 121-year franchise history (74). (Of note, this isn't completely an apples-to-apples comparison as MLB has more playoff rounds than there were in 1987 and 1991, which was more than 1965.)
The Twins have *never* had an in-their-prime, all-around star with Correa's track record. Only two Twins in team history can match the 7.1-WAR, 25 home run season Correa put together last year: Bob Allison in 1963, and yes, you guessed it! Mauer in 2009.
If Correa’s career ended today, he’d rank 8th in Twins' position-player history in WAR, ahead of Allison (30.6), Gary Gaetti (27.1), and Torii Hunter (26.4). Among Twins with at least 700 games played, Correa would rank 6th in OPS+ (127), ahead of Mauer (124) and Puckett (124). Of course, Correa has played a total of zero games with the Twins to this point and we don't know exactly how long his tenure with the team will last. It certainly is exciting to think about what type of talent he can be.
Defensively, Correa saved 20 runs in 2021, per FanGraphs. Only one Twin in team history has ever eclipsed that mark: Buxton in a Platinum-Glove winning 2017 when he saved 22 runs in centerfield. Like his similarly talented teammate in centerfield, Correa does it all.
In no way am I discounting the great players we’ve seen excel for the Twins. They have a rich history of outstanding, Hall-of-Fame level performers. Correa tracks for similar status, and he’s in the middle of his prime. Enjoy the (likely one-year) ride.
MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email