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Derek Falvey stated last week that, despite widespread speculation, the Twins weren't in the market for adding another relief pitcher in free agency. There are still a few quality names on the market, such as Andrew Chafin and the familiar Michael Fulmer, but for the time being, the Twins seem content rolling with the crew they have now out of the bullpen. Starting at the back end, what is the outlook for potential relievers for the Twins?
Closer
Jhoan Duran
Like last year, I expect Rocco Baldelli to use Duran in a non-traditional closer role. This turned off many fans, but the logic is sound. Stick Duran on the opposing team's best hitters late in the game. The situation could be in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning. Duran was as nasty as they came in 2022, mixing top-end velocity (103 mph) with filthy off-speed stuff.
After only one season, Duran has proven himself to be one of the best in baseball. On the year, Duran had a 1.86 ERA, 89 punch-outs in 67.2 innings, and produced 2.8 WAR. Duran should continue to hold down the back of the bullpen and be among the most reliable guys to toe the rubber in high-leverage situations.
Set-Up Guys
Jorge Lopez
Lopez came over from Baltimore at the deadline in 2022 and had a disappointing second half of the year in Minnesota. 2022 was Lopez's first year in the bullpen, as he was a failed starter asked to embrace a new role. In this new role, Baltimore had themselves a dominant closer who gave them 19 saves in the first half of the season, striking out 54 hitters in 48.1 innings to the tune of a 1.68 ERA.
At the time of the trade, Lopez was considered one of the best closers in baseball. It was a small sample size, but what he did was legit. Lopez is another high-velocity guy who will hit triple digits and overwhelm hitters with his filthy stuff. His problem in Minnesota was; he just walked too many batters. In just 22.2 innings with the Twins, Lopez walked 14 batters. The good news here is that the walks weren't a problem in the first half of the season, so if the Twins can make the proper adjustments to limit the walks, Lopez should be fine. With his talent, he has all the makings of being one of the best set-up men in baseball and form a nightmare 1-2 punch with Duran.
Caleb Thielbar
Old-reliable himself. Overcoming some early season jitters, Thielbar went on to provide another excellent season for the Twins. The 35-year-old lefty produced a 2.42 FIP on the year, showing his ability to limit walks and home runs. Thielbar will continue to be a staple in the Twins pen, often being asked to take the ball in a spot late in games where the opposing team has a couple of left-handed hitters due up. The years may come and go, but Thielbar's ability to be productive in his role will stay the same. Thielbar will continue to be a solid and reliable arm for Rocco to call on late in games.
Griffin Jax
Joining Duran and Lopez as starters finding a new role in the bullpen, Jax had an excellent 2022 campaign. Jax was one of the heavier-used pitchers out of the Twins bullpen, throwing 72.1 innings and sometimes asked to eat up multiple innings. Armed with a filthy slider that produced a 36.8% whiff rate, Jax finished the season with a 3.17 FIP and struck out more than a batter per inning. The success of Jax in his new role was one of the highlights of the 2022 season, and he will look to continue his growth there in 2023.
Middle Relievers
Jovani Moran
Jovani Moran was an excellent left-handed bullpen arm in 2022. Moran was so good, and it's possible by the end of 2023, he could be asked to take on more high-leverage situations. In 2022, Moran had a 1.78 FIP and struck out 54 in 40.2 innings. At the moment, Moran is a solid left-handed middle-relief option with a ton of upside.
Trevor Megill
On the surface, Megill's numbers could have been more inspiring in 2022. However, there was a sizeable discrepancy between Megill's ERA (4.80) and his FIP (3.29), meaning he was a little unlucky in 2022 and is a good candidate for some positive regression in 2023. The massive Megill won't be the Twins' most reliable reliever, but he has a chance to be a solid option to eat innings in the middle of games.
Emilio Pagan
Sit down, take deep breaths, and relax. What I suggest next may trigger you. The Twins were absolutely right to give Pagan another shot. At the start of 2022, Pagan was the Twins' closer, which is crazy when you think about it. In those high-leverage situations, Pagan imploded. As the year progressed, Pagan slid further down the pecking order. Eventually, he found his footing and put on an excellent second half of the season. Most of his late-season work went unnoticed, as his reputation was already tarnished.
In a middle relief role, Pagan has the potential to be a valuable asset to the Minnesota Twins. Pagan was, at one time, one of the best closers in the game. At 32 years old, if he can continue to fine-tune his splitter and limit the long ball, there's no reason he can't be worth the second chance.
Jorge Alcala
Alcala is a true wildcard. Thought to be the favorite to take over the closer job after the Twins dealt Taylor Rogers for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan last spring, Alcala suffered a season-ending elbow injury after appearing in just two games. Alcala is young and very talented. If he can return to pre-injury form, he may see more high-leverage situations. There's also the chance that Alcala losses a step and struggles. When he returns, Twins fans will have to wait to see where Alcala is.
This bullpen has loads of talent and plenty of reliable arms. If guys like Jorge Lopez and Emilio Pagan can sure a couple of things up, which I think they will, and Jorge Alcala returns to be the fireballer he was before his surgery, this bullpen has some real potential to be a top 10 bullpen in the MLB.
What are your thoughts? Should the Twins add another arm, or is the bullpen ready to roll? Let me know!
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