Be Prepared for a New Look Twins Team

It may all come down to the bullpen.

The three most important things in baseball are pitching, pitching, and pitching.

This feels like a more well-rounded team than other of recent vintage. The starting rotation is easily the deepest it's been in a long time, and while it might not have the high-end of say, the Johan days, it has playoff-caliber starters going much deeper. the bullpen at least one elite performer and several quality options. the lineup looks to be fairly deep with an array of options: not relying on a purely Bomba Squad or Piranas methodology to get get runs. With some of the platoon/bench players they've added, it looks to have better R-L balance than last season (even if they got there in an odd way), and there's much more depth for if/when injuries strike.

There's definitely top-end talent on this team: Buxton and Correa are both capable of MVP seasons, and while it's maybe stretching it a little to use Maeda's short pandemic year run to Cy Young contention as a true benchmark, every starter in the rotation is capable of having an all-star season if things go their way. We've seen it before that when a couple of guys have the big year at the same time it can get very interesting. (1991 Scott Erickson and Kevin Tapani had their best years as a pro at the same time that Jack Morris had a return to a classic Jack Morris season; twins have only had 3 starters all achieve an ERA+ of 125 at the same time once since 1991, and that was the pandemic year of 2020...and two of those guys made less than 10 starts. Mahle, Gray, Lopez, and Maeda have all hit that level before and all but Maeda have done it multiple times. Could Ryan join that club?) Duran is a monster at the back end of the bullpen.

It's spring, so hope is eternal. I choose to look on the positive side (especially since there's not a lot that can be changed at this point. Why not look for the better possible outcomes?)

33 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

The three most important things in baseball are pitching, pitching, and pitching.

Pitching/Location, Pitching/Location, Pitching/Location.

😁

Simply the fact that we are not penciling in Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer as our 3/4 starters tells you a lot about the changes from last season to this season.

The up the middle defense should be very good, the outfield should be top 3 at worst and we have two very good hitters and with unknown ful season fielding at the two-infield corner positions. 

I like the makeup of this team a lot.  

Sure, there is some uncertainty with Maeda/Mahle/Lopez and yes Pagan as well as some health uncertainty with the position players.  

I don't care what the prediction sites are saying, this team is winning the Central easily if they regress back to the norm when it comes to WAR lost due to injuries.

The overall success of this team will come mainly down to the pen.  However, timely hitting will be important too.  Last year we did not have great timely hitting most of the year.  Rocco leans on his pen a ton, mainly not allowing any starters, unless there is a huge lead, to go a full third time through order.  This means he is normally asking minimum 3 but normally 4 innings from his pen every game.  He also normally is only asking they do 1 inning at a time.  So really looking at about 4 to 5 pitchers each game.  If anyone struggles in a game it can blow up the whole game. 

Personally, not a fan of this plan, but they work the plan.  That is why I believe it will come down to pen.  It seems even if a guy is doing well, the second they allow 1 runner the third trip through the line up, they get the hook, unless the lead is huge.  I am sure there is a little more to it, but sure seems to be the deciding factor. 

I feel great that we haven't heard (yet) the annual phrase "They won't need to put the #4  and #5 starter until .... Usually that is a blessing but this year they have the horses to get the job done.

Beginning of '19 our rotation was one of the best if not the best, until our BP blew up. Which has been our problem for a very long time. Our rotation & BP look much better especially the BP. The talk of long relief filling any rotation/ BP innings gap is crucial (I'm not only talking about mop up situations), which has been sorely absent these last few years.

The juice ball played a big role in the bomba squad. I doubt the juiced ball will be unleashed upon the entire league again this year. The Twins have been very sloppy in fundamentals since '19 and it has shown. This year Molitor gave a seminar on base running to the players and I've been wondering if they the base coaches have been given any instructions how to send them. Because I've seen very little of it. Until the 9th inning in the TB game when Miller stole 2B then 3B. Gross was notably rattled serving a nice meatball to Keirsey Jr., Miller scored. Keirsey Jr. stole 3B & score on a errant throw, still rattled Sabato walked. Then Sabato stole 2B,  advanced to 3B on a WP & scored on another errant throw. The fact that Sabato stole 2B makes me believe that the runners were stealing on their own.

We were in route to lose a meaningless game but with the base running antics we won a very valuable one, if management took note. If anything I want to see from this team is for them take advantage of the rule change. Maybe form the Piranhas II and really goof up others teams game plan against us.

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

The three most important things in baseball are pitching, pitching, and pitching.

Amen to that, brother. 

5 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

This feels like a more well-rounded team than other of recent vintage. The starting rotation is easily the deepest it's been in a long time, and while it might not have the high-end of say, the Johan days, it has playoff-caliber starters going much deeper. the bullpen at least one elite performer and several quality options. the lineup looks to be fairly deep with an array of options: not relying on a purely Bomba Squad or Piranas methodology to get get runs. With some of the platoon/bench players they've added, it looks to have better R-L balance than last season (even if they got there in an odd way), and there's much more depth for if/when injuries strike.

There's definitely top-end talent on this team: Buxton and Correa are both capable of MVP seasons, and while it's maybe stretching it a little to use Maeda's short pandemic year run to Cy Young contention as a true benchmark, every starter in the rotation is capable of having an all-star season if things go their way. We've seen it before that when a couple of guys have the big year at the same time it can get very interesting. (1991 Scott Erickson and Kevin Tapani had their best years as a pro at the same time that Jack Morris had a return to a classic Jack Morris season; twins have only had 3 starters all achieve an ERA+ of 125 at the same time once since 1991, and that was the pandemic year of 2020...and two of those guys made less than 10 starts. Mahle, Gray, Lopez, and Maeda have all hit that level before and all but Maeda have done it multiple times. Could Ryan join that club?) Duran is a monster at the back end of the bullpen.

It's spring, so hope is eternal. I choose to look on the positive side (especially since there's not a lot that can be changed at this point. Why not look for the better possible outcomes?)

I was about to say this is the deepest rotation since 1991, but you beat me to it, and with stats. 

I agree, this team looks good, deep and versatile. If guys remain healthy, they have a lot of ways to beat you, which I find pretty exciting. This team looks set to be a pain for the opposition. And aces should not be able to get away with a simple approach against them. They can hit, run and hit for power, or at least they project that way. Spring is nice that way, but I have high hopes. 

Ober, Varland and SWR are three reasons I'm hopeful this spring. The fact that none of these three good young pitchers will break camp with the team means a lot. Do the Saints still deliver baseballs to the home ump with a pig? Much more relaxed atmosphere in St. Paul. 

I for one, take a look at the "lineup that has the potential to withstand the blow of losing Arraez" and see a lineup that scored fewer than 700 runs last year and wonder where offense needed to win a World Series is gonna come from.

This will be a vastly different year.  This team is built around a gamble on health and young talent hitting.  Buxton/ Correa/ Kirilloff/ Polanco/ Gray/ Maeda/ Mahle/ Duran/ Alcala all the star talent has health questions.   

If it breaks right its a deep rotation filled with number 2/3 starters and depth behind them.  A pen headlined by a true monster and 2 other potential flame throwers, with some legit lefties mixed in.  A defense with 2 platinum glove winners at the important spots and and multiple other gold glove caliber guys spread around, the only real average spots or weaknesses is at 2nd/ 3rd/ C.

The offense has the two best hitters at CF and SS, a kinda crazy situation, but injury concerns plague them.  Buxton/ Correa will lead things Polanco/ Kepler/ Gallo all need to rebound, then its on the young bats.  There needs to be standouts from the Miranda/ Kirilloff/ Lewis/ Larnach/ Wallner/ Celestino/ Julien/ Lee group to contend.  They have raised the floor with professional hitters like Solano/ Farmer but they still need a lot of fire power.

Kiriloff gold glove potential at 1st?

Tell me more....

This team will pitch?

Well, they all will.

"as good of a group as anyone could hope for"?

I personally could hope for much, much better, as long as we are hoping, even if the hopes for this group mostly happens.

I will believe it when I see it. And not until. This pitching is total question marks.

I mean, did you get a load of the incredible stuff Pagan was flashing already, today? Stuff. Ha.

6 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

I for one, take a look at the "lineup that has the potential to withstand the blow of losing Arraez" and see a lineup that scored fewer than 700 runs last year and wonder where offense needed to win a World Series is gonna come from.

Its going to come from guys that stay healthy and have become a year older and wiser. Runs come easier when you arent looking up at a 2-4 run deficit in the 6th inning.

17 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

The Twins have been very sloppy in fundamentals since '19 and it has shown

Lots of keys to the season, but this certainly has to be one.  Sure, the starting pitching is better, the bullpen has promise, and the offense, well, let’s just say, overall isn’t too exciting but maybe a few players break out/return to top prior form. Yet all of that won’t really matter if we continue to play with the poor fundamentals that have become the hallmark of Rocco’s teams.

The roster looks better in many respects, but not so strong as to be able to overcome playing dumb baseball - we just aren’t that good.

23 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I agree. Either the Twins need to modify "the plan" or improve the pen. I got so tired of watching later inning games get washed away by a porous pen last year. I salute the expected improvement at starter, but the fact they did basically nothing to help the pen could lead to problems unless Rocco lets these guys go an inning or 2 deeper. Using 4 pen guys a game will negate any advantage the starters give us IMO.

Concur Karbo, what good is analytics if "the plan" is flawed.

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

I for one, take a look at the "lineup that has the potential to withstand the blow of losing Arraez" and see a lineup that scored fewer than 700 runs last year and wonder where offense needed to win a World Series is gonna come from.

But you're not seeing the lineup that scored fewer than 700 runs. (a little disingenuous, that: they scored 696. it's not like they were the Pirates) That lineup had Jake Cave, Mark Contreras, and Billy Hamilton in it. And Sandy Leon catching. First half of the season the Twins were scoring 4.5 runs per game (over a full season that's 729 runs); second half it was down to 4 (including a dreadful 3.6 in Sept).

Houston won the World Series with 737 runs, Cleveland won the division with 698. This lineup is more than capable of scoring enough runs to contend if reasonably healthy. But they're also deeper than last season and more able to withstand injury. That said...no team handles the level of injury the Twins had last season. #2 in all of baseball in player games lost to injury. 

Nickname? “Flavi Five”  comes to mind. Or the “Flinging Falvis “. Frankly, it’s about time Falvi did something about the rotation. Is this year six?

9 hours ago, RaoulDuke said:

This will be a vastly different year.  This team is built around a gamble on health and young talent hitting.  Buxton/ Correa/ Kirilloff/ Polanco/ Gray/ Maeda/ Mahle/ Duran/ Alcala all the star talent has health questions.   

If it breaks right its a deep rotation filled with number 2/3 starters and depth behind them.  A pen headlined by a true monster and 2 other potential flame throwers, with some legit lefties mixed in.  A defense with 2 platinum glove winners at the important spots and and multiple other gold glove caliber guys spread around, the only real average spots or weaknesses is at 2nd/ 3rd/ C.

The offense has the two best hitters at CF and SS, a kinda crazy situation, but injury concerns plague them.  Buxton/ Correa will lead things Polanco/ Kepler/ Gallo all need to rebound, then its on the young bats.  There needs to be standouts from the Miranda/ Kirilloff/ Lewis/ Larnach/ Wallner/ Celestino/ Julien/ Lee group to contend.  They have raised the floor with professional hitters like Solano/ Farmer but they still need a lot of fire power.

Health is a gamble for any pro sports team…. nothing special here with the Twins needing better health (significantly) than in ‘22.

Polanco was starting All-Star in ‘21…..he was banged up in ‘22 and only played 65% of the season. Christian Vázquez is as solid as they come…..granted, due to lack of quickness & service time, Miranda might be considered average or just below at 3rd. Don’t see the weaknesses you point out up the middle.

Vazquez - Polanco - CC - Buxton are a really strong group up the middle v. anyone else in baseball.

If you pitch, you're always in the game.  Baseball will look different and familiar this year.  Different from the last several years and more familiar to those of us who grew up watching baseball in the 60's, 70's and 80's.  I don't think we will see a Rickey Henderson or Lou Brock type of SB total, but we will certainly see more aggressive baserunning and as fans I think we will love it.  I see Jorge Lopez as a huge key to this season.  If he's 80-100% of what he was for the Orioles in the first half of the season he will allow Rocco to use Duran as that high leverage guy and Lopez will get us saves.  If he's more like the pitcher we acquired, then Rocco will have a harder time defining roles and things will be difficult.  The starters are veterans and have proven track records when healthy.  The bullpen needs to shine for us to truly battle Cleveland and Chicago.

Nothing new about Pagan giving up a grand slam in his first grapefruit league inning. His ball must have looked like a grapefruit to the hitters. 

What's the definition of insanity. Doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result ..

I really don't know what to expect.  But I agree that the pitching staff performance is vital to a good season.  Our starters need to pitch better and longer.  That is if their performance and Baldellis stubborn don't let pitchers face hitters a third time doesn't get in the way.  But on paper it looks better than normal.  We do have starters with a history of injuries that need to be overcome.  We also need a stronger bullpen if our manager is intent of burning them out after the all star break.  Not sure about the offense yet.  If they are counting on Buxton to play a full season And be productive, good luck with that.  If players play up to their abilities and beyond and stay injury free it could be a fun season.

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

Nickname? “Flavi Five”  comes to mind. Or the “Flinging Falvis “. Frankly, it’s about time Falvi did something about the rotation. Is this year six?

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

But you're not seeing the lineup that scored fewer than 700 runs. (a little disingenuous, that: they scored 696. it's not like they were the Pirates) That lineup had Jake Cave, Mark Contreras, and Billy Hamilton in it. And Sandy Leon catching. First half of the season the Twins were scoring 4.5 runs per game (over a full season that's 729 runs); second half it was down to 4 (including a dreadful 3.6 in Sept).

Houston won the World Series with 737 runs, Cleveland won the division with 698. This lineup is more than capable of scoring enough runs to contend if reasonably healthy. But they're also deeper than last season and more able to withstand injury. That said...no team handles the level of injury the Twins had last season. #2 in all of baseball in player games lost to injury. 

Luckily, this year, we're not at all relying on the guys who couldn't stay on the field last year

When I see Pagan replaced by a quality pitcher I will have more faith.  I just cannot fathom what the eventual lineup will be at this point.  We do need Miranda.  

11 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Luckily, this year, we're not at all relying on the guys who couldn't stay on the field last year

And as a result they made sure they had much better, proven depth options as insurance. What exactly do you want them to do? Trade all the guys that were injured last year (i'm sure you'd get great value there) and replace them with...someone?

If Buxton gets hurt, we have Michael A. Taylor. If Kirilloff gets hurt, we have Solano as an option. Larnach clearly isn't being counted on; he's probably starting in AAA. They signed Vazquez so they wouldn't have to rely on Jeffers being healthy all season.