The Astros signed Odorizzi, 31, to a three-year deal following a rough, shortened 2020 season with the Twins. Odorizzi had bypassed free agency by accepting the qualifying offer from Minnesota in 2019, then spent much of 2020 injured.
At that time, the Astros had much less certainty in their rotation. They hadn’t yet witnessed the breakouts of José Urquidy, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, or Lance McCullers, Jr. Add in Cristian Javier and a healthy Justin Verlander. That’s a crowded rotation, with Odorizzi on the outside looking in.
Odorizzi owns a 4.49 ERA and 4.67 FIP in 118 1/3 innings since he started Game 3 of the 2019 ALDS at Target Field. His strikeout rate is down, he’s getting battered more often, and his splitter is getting bit. But Odorizzi still has an excellent four-seam fastball and an underutilized cutter. He also wasn't shy about his love for the Twins and the mound at Target Field.
Right-handed hitters had little chance against Odorizzi in 2019, and he pitched very well at Target Field. With Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, José Abreu, and Franmil Reyes in the division, the Twins could use someone who has gotten them out before.
Odorizzi is a luxury starter for Houston. A trade would benefit both him and the Twins and makes a ton of sense on the Astros side. Odorizzi is owed $8 million in 2022 and harnesses an $8.5 million player option for 2023. With the Twins valuing flexibility, you’ll be hard-pressed to find more.
If Odorizzi were a free agent today, he’d probably sign a one-year deal in that same range. He needs to build back his value and re-establish mid-rotation status. Starting every fifth day for the Twins could provide that opportunity, with a chance for 2019-like success. Even if he stays within his career numbers, a 3.95 ERA and 105 ERA+, he’d instantly become the Twins’ most experienced and successful starter.
MLB Trade Simulator values Odorizzi at negative-7.5, given his recent performance, health, and contract. If that’s the case, this deal should’ve happened before the lockout.
There’s an argument that giving up anything for Odorizzi pales in comparison to just signing a bounce-back starter candidate in free agency. The difference: we’ve seen what Odorizzi can be for the Twins. At his best, he’s a fastball-heavy number three in a good rotation.
It seems the Twins are keeping rotation spots open for their top pitching prospects to breakthrough. That’s all good and dandy, but you still need innings. If you’re unwilling to commit multiple years in free agency for quality starters, trade for a known person and player in Odorizzi. It benefits all three sides.
For an idea of what a deal for Odorizzi could look like:
What do you think? Should the Twins trade for Jake Odorizzi? Comment below!
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