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Mike Sixel
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Showing content with the highest reputation on 12/29/2022 in all areas
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5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
Twins_Fan_For_Life and 7 others reacted to gman for a post in a topic
8 pointsAt the start of last year we had Pagan and Duffy finishing out games. We turned quite a few wins into losses. Next year we will have Duran and Lopez to finish off games. That could be a 5-6 game turn around right there. ++++++ Vazquez instead of Sanchez. + A return of a healthy Polanco, + More from Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Jeffers, Gray, Ober. ++++ Maeda & Mahli instead of Bundy & Archer. ++ Miranda all year. + Gallo over Sano. + More known commodities in Jax, Moran & Alcala. +++ Hopefully the same from Ryan, Arraez & Gordon. Should be +++ Lots of +'s. Add Lewis and maybe Lee , Martin, Wallner, Julian,, ++++ Continued improvement from Varland, SWR, Winder, Henriquez. ++++ Improved health, improved upper level minors depth. Better 26 man roster overall. Should be a much better season.8 points -
5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
Boswell and 6 others reacted to Nashvilletwin for a post in a topic
7 pointsQuestion: what is the biggest difference between the ‘21 Vikes and the ‘22 Vikes? Zimmer gone, KOC in. We want to win more close games? Particularly with our roster that could be very generously described as “average”? Start with playing with excellent fundamentals and “steal” more wins than loses via better in-game management. That begins and ends with Rocco.7 points -
5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
Bob Twins Fan Since 61 and 5 others reacted to Craig Arko for a post in a topic
6 pointsSure, reversing the close games can make all the difference. Compare the 2022 Vikings with the 2021 edition and that becomes clear. Keeping a healthy and relatively stable squad, and challenging for the division seems a realistic goal. Beyond that the path is a lot thornier.6 points -
What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
Otwins and 5 others reacted to SteveLV for a post in a topic
6 pointsI would not fire sale Kepler at all. He is still a decent player who may hit for higher average with the shift banned. His defense is rock solid and he is, by all accounts, a good clubhouse teammate. I like a potential OF of Gallo-Buxton-Kepler. Terrific speed and range, and good to great arms. Probably best defensive OF in baseball (when Buxton plays). Gordon as backup is solid as well, and Larnach may surprise too. If they can get good pitching for Max, sure, but not just to trade him for mediocre talent.6 points -
5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
Richie the Rally Goat and 4 others reacted to Ted Schwerzler for an article
5 pointsAs Derek Falvey and Thad Levine look to reinvigorate Rocco Baldelli’s clubhouse, the goal for Minnesota will be to have their first winning season since 2020. While Covid gave Major League Baseball just a 60-game season, the Twins were still riding high from the 2019 Bomba Squad. That luster has now long worn off, and the fan base responded by generating the worst attendance since 2001. There is reason to believe, even in losing Carlos Correa, that the 2023 Twins will turn the tide and finish with a winning record. Here’s a few reasons to get on board with that notion: 1. Better Health There may be no team that had a worse case of injury luck than the Twins. The injured list could’ve won a considerable amount of games on its own as a team, and each time someone got healthy someone else got hurt. The organization decided to turn the page for the training staff and brought in Nick Paparesta with hopes of better results. We will have to take a wait and see approach when deciding what the actual impact is, but it’s unlikely that the same level of injury will be replicated year over year. Luck isn’t something Minnesota sports teams typically have on their side, but even a bit less bad luck would be welcomed in the year ahead. 2. Youth Development As much as the Twins need to bring in new talent, much of their internal pipeline has graduated to the big league roster. Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis are two of the most highly anticipated prospects for the franchise, and while both have yet to see health at the Major League level, they have the talent to compete. Combined with Trevor Larnach, Jose Miranda, and potentially even Brooks Lee in 2023, there is a substantial amount of home-grown contributors. The success of this organization in the immediate future will be largely reflective of how much each young player can tap into their ceiling. 3. Redo Tight Ones In 2022, the Twins went 20-28 in one-run games. Despite nearly an identical overall record in 2021, Baldelli’s club went 25-19 in one-run games. Obviously winning close games comes down to a multitude of factors. Minnesota did a poor job closing out games last season, and they also failed quite often with runners in scoring position. The former is a reflection of bullpen talent, but the latter is more likely an outlier given the overall lineup ability. When the Bomba Squad pulled off their 101-win season, they went 23-12 in one-run games. Being on the right side of tight ones obviously raises the water level as a whole, but it doesn’t have to be a substantial amount. Minnesota being .500 in one-run games a season ago would’ve kept them in the division and afforded a winning record. 4. Pitching Depth For the first time in quite a while the Twins have a pitching pipeline that we haven’t seen. Kenta Maeda returns to an Opening Day rotation alongside Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, and Joe Ryan. The front office should really add another impact starter, but having arms like Bailey Ober, Josh WInder, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Louie Varland provides a nice safety blanket. One would hope that 38 different arms aren’t needed in 2023, but we also shouldn’t see a scenario in which a Chi Chi Gonzalez type is called upon. 5. Division Door Open As has been the case for the past few years, there should be no clear favorite in the AL Central. While the Chicago White Sox have found themselves in the driver’s seat at times, and Minnesota has won it twice in the past four years, Cleveland surprised in 2022. With Tony La Russa out Chicago should be better managed, but the talent level could be argued to have slipped some. The Guardians are a team to be reckoned with as they have developed talent, but they certainly aren’t a juggernaut. Both the Tigers and Royals will want to take a step forward, but neither should pose a huge threat yet. A three-team race for the division crown will likely be tightly contested for the better part of the season. Everyone involved with the organization is hoping for a tide-turning season. The offseason plans may not have gone to perfection thus far, but results on the field could be drastically different simply because of who is already employed by this team. Minnesota didn't fall off a cliff talent-wise in a season, and righting the ship in 2023 remains a solid possibility.5 points -
If only the Twins could find a right handed bat who averages 38 home runs, 98 RBI, 90 runs scored per 162 games with a career OPS over .800
Hey! Add some spoiler alert space, wouldja? I was still trying to play.5 points
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5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
Riverbrian and 3 others reacted to Mike Sixel for a post in a topic
4 pointsI don't know what will happen, but if this team is healthy and they don't blow the vast majority of one run games, they win the division last year. The SP and RP is better to start this year than last year..... So, sure, they could win. That's why I don't believe for one minute they are trading Kepler or anyone else.4 points -
What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
4 pointsI think that there is way too much emphasis on the Gallo or Kepler comparison. True, they are similar in that they can play gold glove level RF and serve as a short term answer in CF. They are also both LH hitters with some past history that the team would like to recreate, As veteran players, both offer some certainty, unlike the hope/potential of Kiriloff, Larnach, and Wallner. Rather than the Gallo/Kepler debate I believe that the focus should be on Gallo as a 1 year $11M insurance policy. If Larnach is not healthy, or needs more time in the minors, Gallo can be the LF. Same is true for Wallner, who likely needs more AAA time in any case. The FO has dropped hints about Gallo being a potential gold glover at 1B. If Kiriloff cannot come back or needs time to get his swing back at AAA, we have a 1B in Gallo. If injuries continue to be a problem for Arraez and/or Polanco, or if one is traded, there may be AB's available at DH (with Arraez fitting in at 2B). If 2022 was not an illusion in terms of Gordon's production, he will still get AB's as an OF or 2B. What I am trying to say is that no one has to be traded, and certainly no one has to be dumped for less than market value. If I am not mistaken Larnach, Kiriloff, and Wallner all have options remaining and can begin the year at AAA. If everyone is healthy and producing come May or June, a decision can be made at that time. Any one of the players who are part of this ongoing discussion can be traded. If 2022 taught us anything it should be that the "If" in "if everyone is healthy" is a very important unknown. Worst case, Gallo is washed up and the Twins end up cutting him and they are out $11M with no future commitments.4 points
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If only the Twins could find a right handed bat who averages 38 home runs, 98 RBI, 90 runs scored per 162 games with a career OPS over .800
If only the Twins could find a right handed bat who averages 38 home runs, 98 RBI, 90 runs scored per 162 games with a career OPS over .800
laloesch and 3 others reacted to Richie the Rally Goat for a post in a topic
4 points4 points- What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
Minny505 and 3 others reacted to Danchat for a post in a topic
4 pointsI don’t think the Twins would be moving him for a lottery ticket, it sounds like there is some demand for him. I’d guess he gets one #11-20 prospect or a MLB reliever.4 points- Do the Minnesota Twins have 2 Joey Gallo's?
Do the Minnesota Twins have 2 Joey Gallo's?
LewFordLives and 3 others reacted to saviking for a comment on a blog entry
4 pointsSo if we have two Gallo's why did we sign Gallo? That's the mystery ..4 points- 3 Moves still available for the Twins this off season
3 Moves still available for the Twins this off season
weitz41 and 2 others reacted to Doc Munson for a blog entry
3 pointsThis is all of course predicated on Correa staying in New York. Also a couple of these moves are related to each other. #1 Trading redundant players. Not breaking any news here. Kepler and even Arraez have both been mentioned as trade candidates. Especially after the Joey Gallo signing. Yes the Twins could very easily keep Kepler and go with an OF of Kepler, Buxton, Gallo. AND if they feel Kepler will have a strong season with the shift rules changes, then the best move is to keep him and potentially trade him for higher value at the deadline. If he has a strong 1st half then that $10M team option for next year greatly increases his trade value. I am not sure what the trade value is for either Kepler or Arraez, so I am not going to sit here and say.. Lets trade Kepler for Sandy Alcantara to improve our pitching This trade group is also not limited to Kepler, Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff could all also be slotted into this scenario. We cannot play them all, and there may even be better overall fits out there instead of them (although I like Wallner and Larnach). And this brings me to move #2... #2 Sign Domnic Smith. I still cannot believe he is unsigned. Dom is not a game changer, but he can play GG caliber defense at 1B. and has a very solid bat, with even "great bat" potential. He never got consistent ABs at his natural 1B position with the Mets. He could be signed at a very team friendly deal at this point. If there is decent trade value in Kirilloff, Kepler, any other LH or potential 1B on this squad then trading them and signing Dom is a great move, because not only would we secure Dom cheaply, but also get some return for players he will replace. #3 Call Texas regarding Ezequiel Duran. This again is dependent on what else we do, especially if we trade Arraez. Yes we have Farmer as a potential SS/utility IF kind of guy, but Ezequiel Duran can play MORE positions, is younger/cheaper, and I think an overall superior bat. he is a natural 2B, but can play 3B & SS, and has gotten some time in the OF. with Seager, Simien, Jung on the IF he is blocked. Maybe this is a good swap with Kepler as Texas is still looking for an OF. and while I like Polanco at 2B he is $7.5M this year and $10.5 next. SO this also helps free up cash IF the Twins ever decide to step up and pay in the deep end of the FA pool. AND... While I said these moves assume Correa stays with Mets. These moves make even MORE sense if something weird happens where Mets back out and the Twins can get Correa for something along the lines of the 10 years $285M they offered, although I would do something more like 8 for $250. (Higher AAV but less long-term risk). As these moves would clear $16M this year and $12-20M depending on options next year and replace with equal offensive output in Dom Smith & Duran). Dom's position wouldn't be the same, but bat for bat Smith would be an upgrade over Kepler, and allow one of Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner to play the 3rd OF spot.3 points- 5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
hitterscount and 2 others reacted to Doctor Gast for a post in a topic
3 points1.) Health- Some of our injury was bad luck which I do believe will change. But most of it was managerial, hopefully Nick Paparesta can straighten them out. Once we figure that out that'll be a game changer. Having a team all rested, injury free through the season & everyone ready for post season. 2.) Youth- about what we had last season one more season under their belt will help. 3.) close game losses- dropping Duffy & Pagan as closers has helped a ton & improve on #1 will also. 4.) Rotation- is a little better & deeper but if health management isn't incorporated we'll go down the same road, it'll might just take a little longer. If they plan to put Maeda in rotation on opening day. They have just taken that 1st step down that road. 5.) Division- I see it as tougher. Cleveland, their youth has become established. CWS, once their feet back under them after LaRossa's reign, will be tough (hopefully it'll take awhile) 6.) BP- most improvement 7.) Outfield- last year we had a pretty good & deep OF. Now with signing Gallo, seems like some bonehead move is brewing that'll effect this OF for the worse. 8.) INF- Right now. 3B - Miranda (questionable but hopeful); SS - Farmer (serviceable, great against LHPs, not against RHPs); 2B - Polanco (solid). Depth- 0 quality depth. For us to even think about competing this year, we need to solve our INF problem by finding a legitimate platoon with Farmer.3 points- 5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
Bob Twins Fan Since 61 and 2 others reacted to sorney for a post in a topic
3 pointsI appreciate your optimism here, but the "hope for a tide turning season" feels very on brand for the Twins. Why go out and create your own fate, when you can sit back and hope?!?3 points- Correa potentially available again
Correa potentially available again
h2oface and 2 others reacted to Wizard11 for a post in a topic
3 pointsBrock, I was struck by your super fandom and the similarities to Sarah Langs. Her tagline of “baseball is the best” touch’s at the core of how many of us feel about the game. I have lived in San Diego for 20 years and grew up in MN. My 3 favorite teams are in this order, the Twins, Padres, and whoever is playing the Yankees. For my part I appreciate your passion and ongoing work for many fans to support the game we love. Our world seems to have an over abundance of partisan mental midgets focused on being divisive. I think what you are doing and contributing is awesome. “Baseball is the best”3 points- If only the Twins could find a right handed bat who averages 38 home runs, 98 RBI, 90 runs scored per 162 games with a career OPS over .800
If only the Twins could find a right handed bat who averages 38 home runs, 98 RBI, 90 runs scored per 162 games with a career OPS over .800
glunn and 2 others reacted to August J Gloop for a post in a topic
3 pointsI wonder if the fact that all 30 of those teams are ignoring this mystery slugger, we might make a conclusion there?3 points- If only the Twins could find a right handed bat who averages 38 home runs, 98 RBI, 90 runs scored per 162 games with a career OPS over .800
If only the Twins could find a right handed bat who averages 38 home runs, 98 RBI, 90 runs scored per 162 games with a career OPS over .800
glunn and 2 others reacted to nicksaviking for a post in a topic
3 pointsGallo and Sano? That sounds like too many strikeouts for one team to overcome.3 points- My Way, The Highway, and Breakfast.
My Way, The Highway, and Breakfast.
Alex Boxwell and 2 others reacted to Karbo for a comment on a blog entry
3 pointsI enjoyed the article. I can agree with you on most of what you say. The one thing all those hitters have is ability to pretty much "square" up the ball. Hit it hard somewhere. As far as the pitching goes, If a starter can't make it through 6 and keeping the hitters under 3 ER or so on a fairly consistent basis, they should be in the pen. Unless MLB changes rules again to allow for more relievers, they just can't expect to maintain a reliable pen, especially since most of the relievers are only 1 and done ( at least in the Twins pen).3 points- What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
3 pointsI agree completely. Reminds me of a lesson my father taught me long ago when I asked him what a particular thing was worth. He said: "that's simple; it is worth whatever someone is willing to pay you for it at the moment you are looking to sell it, and that can change at any time." Max is worth whatever another team is willing to offer for him at the time we are willing to trade him. Sounds simplistic, and maybe even sound like a cop out, but it is true of virtually everything in life we want to buy, sell, or trade. In baseball, control is valued as much as a players stats at times, so how much someone may be willing to offer may decrease as the amount of control decreases. It will all depend on how badly we want to move him, and how badly someone else thinks they need him. Listen to all offers and only take one if the return is to our benefit. He is an asset we don't have to sell, but maybe one that someone else needs to buy.3 points- What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
bloomwcjkl and 2 others reacted to Wilco1 for a post in a topic
3 pointsI don’t understand the Joey Gallo pick up at all. In my opinion I believe Max Kepler is going to have one of his best years. With the new rules intact and some changes with his swing, I believe we’ll see the best of Max this year. with all the outfielders that we have you would’ve thought the twins would’ve spent the money they invested in Gallo on pitching. Oh and by the way it’s still not too late to make another offer on Mr. Korea!3 points- What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
jrod23 and 2 others reacted to Battle ur tail off for a post in a topic
3 pointsKepler's trade value? By himself, my guess would be basically a lottery pick type prospect. Someone not in a teams top 20 guys for sure. This is why picking up Gallo made zero sense. They are very similar players. So we are going to pay someone more money to do the same job and we are going to move the guy we have for a nobody...3 points- What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
Minny505 and 2 others reacted to Whitey333 for a post in a topic
3 pointsAnother interesting article. I always find it strange that many new wave baseball "experts" like to down play results. Here you try to compare Varsho and Kepler while implying the analytics are more important than the results. What good is the total analytical approach if you don't get positive results? Results, bottom line, is the most important thing. But Falvey of course was recently quoted " it's the process not the results that's important.". I don't understand why a major league baseball team would want a philosophy like that. If your goal isn't winning, you have no business running a team.3 points- Eovaldi to the Rangers
Eovaldi to the Rangers
NotAboutWinning and 2 others reacted to Richie the Rally Goat for a post in a topic
3 pointsNo one, clearly. I’m all for spending money, but if it doesn’t actually improve the team, I don’t care. they dithered on Correa while all the players they should have signed went elsewhere. It’s been too late since November3 points- Eovaldi to the Rangers
Eovaldi to the Rangers
DocBauer and 2 others reacted to IA Bean Counter for a post in a topic
3 pointsEh, I really don't see Eovaldi as a needle mover. he strung together 3 good seasons with 1 great season last year. If you remove the 2021 season and the 2019 year best and worst years he is essentially a 1.2 WAR player. Plus you are giving up a draft pick as well. We need to rebuild our farm depth after last year trading a lot away. We have enough pitchers on the staff that can be 1 WAR players while not paying them 17 mil a year.3 points- Eovaldi to the Rangers
Eovaldi to the Rangers
Old Crow and 2 others reacted to Nashvilletwin for a post in a topic
3 pointsMaeda did pretty well. But you’re point is a good one. Come here and you get five innings or two times through the order - whichever comes first. Not a good place to establish yourself as a top FA. Gray probably can’t wait to split. Question: whether we want to or not, how many of Gray, Mahle and Maeda do we extend this season? Answer: zero. If they pitch badly or are injury prone, we won’t want them. If they pitch well, they will want to go on to greener pastures. Either result is a failed strategy.3 points- 3 Top Twins Prospects with Something to Prove in 2023
3 Top Twins Prospects with Something to Prove in 2023
glunn and 2 others reacted to Mike Sixel for a post in a topic
3 pointsHow many pitchers would you expect them to have "fixed" in 6 years of drafting (no player taken in the last two years is in the majors)? I'm guessing you'll see Ober, Varland, and SWR in the majors this year. Dobnak, before getting hurt, was exactly this pitcher. We all forget how good he was two years ago. Then there is Ryan. So many injuries the last few years.....Oh, and they traded one of those guys for Gray. Which clearly reduces the pipeline. This doesn't count Jax or Duran in the bullpen.3 points- 3 Top Twins Prospects with Something to Prove in 2023
3 Top Twins Prospects with Something to Prove in 2023
Major League Ready and 2 others reacted to DocBauer for a post in a topic
3 pointsSeverino? The 2-time bonus baby started to really come on last season at A+ and AA. Not sure if he begins 2023 at AA or is ready to take that next step. Tons of potential. Is this the year he establishes himself as a top prospect? He's still only 23yo. Festa? I could care less that he was a 13th round pick. He flashed at low A, slipped a little at high A, and then finished really strong. Is he for real? Sure looks like the stuff is, and he won't be 23yo until March. Raya? He finally got to pitch! He looked really good in his initial season. He's still very young. Just how good can he be in season 2?3 points- 4 Breakout Candidates for the Twins in 2023
4 Breakout Candidates for the Twins in 2023
jorgenswest and one other reacted to Adam Friedman for a blog entry
2 pointsFor the Twins to get back into the playoffs in 2023, they will need a host of elements to go well. Not only will the Twins require significantly better health in 2023 — they will also need some players to make leaps in the new year. Whether it’s younger established players or prospects, the Twins need big improvements from some young players to be a successful team. I’ve put together a list of players I think can take those steps to be impact players in 2023. Joe Ryan Since the Twins acquired Joe Ryan in exchange for Nelson Cruz at the 2021 trade deadline, he has impressed, and at times, dominated. In 32 starts, he has pitched 173.2 innings with an ERA of 3.63 and a FIP of 3.90. He has had a 25.7% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk rate. These are all very good numbers for a guy coming off of his rookie year, and he would slot into just about any rotation in baseball. Ryan isn’t a typical breakout candidate due to his early success, but I believe at 26 years old, he has the ability to develop into more of a frontline starter and break out as a true star. In 2022, Ryan was much worse after a tough bout with Covid-19. Per Fangraphs, in starts before his long absence due to the virus, Ryan had a 2.25 ERA and a 3.25 FIP, but in starts after he came back, he had a 4.08 ERA and 4.30 FIP. Essentially, before his 3-week Covid absence, he was the frontline starter the Twins needed him to be, and after, he was a back-end of the rotation starter. Hopefully, once fully recovered in 2023, we can see Ryan lead the rotation and be a frontline starter. Beyond his mediocre numbers after his Covid-19 absence, Ryan’s performance against right-handed hitters in 2022 surprised me. I expected him to be a typical pitcher who performs better against same-sided batters. In the minors, Ryan had typical splits, where he was better against righties than lefties, but that was not the case in 2022. Against right-handed batters in 2022, Ryan threw fewer fastballs and more sliders. But his fastball was one of the best pitches in baseball in 2022 based on Baseball Savant’s run value metric, while his slider was well below average. For Ryan to become a frontline starter, he will need to improve his performance against right-handed batters, by either improving his slider or throwing fewer sliders against right-handed batters. If either of those strategies is effective and he can return to top physical shape, Ryan can be the Twins best starting pitcher (as the roster is currently constructed) and possibly become the frontline starter the Twins need in 2023. Jovani Moran Almost every number available shows that Jovani Moran is a really good relief pitcher who is ready to be an impact reliever for the Twins from Opening Day forward. From his 2.21 ERA and 1.78 FIP in 2022 for the Twins in 40.2 innings, to his 11.95 K/9, Twins fans should be excited for him to join the fold more in 2023. While his numbers holistically are awesome, he does walk a ton of batters. However, he limits home runs and strikes out enough hitters that the walks have rarely haunted him at any level, and his overall numbers should continue to be strong in 2023. While Moran has been extremely stingy against both righties and lefties, as a 2-pitch pitcher who relies a ton on nasty changeup, he has reverse splits, meaning he is better against right-handed batters than lefties. Because of this, he would benefit if the Twins add an additional left-handed reliever, so if Caleb Thielbar is unavailable, he doesn’t have to be the guy to just come in against lefties. Instead, he should be used in other high leverage situations, whether it’s an 8th inning in a 1- run game, or if there are guys on second and third and one out. If the Twins are going to hunt any matchups for Moran, they should seek right-handed hitters in 2023. Facing primarily righties will further improve his numbers and make him a weapon in a bullpen that could be the best in years for the Twins. Alex Kirilloff Kirilloff has unfortunately been on these types of lists for 3 years. The Twins expected that in 2021, once they blatantly manipulated his service time, he could come in and be a star left fielder every day for years to come. That expectation was reasonable at the time. In 2018, he was the Twins Minor League Player of the Year, and his strong performances continued in 2019 during his first taste of the upper minors at AA. He had wrist problems flare up for the first time in 2019, but after a strong performance at the Twins alternate site in 2020, which they believed warranted a rare playoff Major League Baseball debut, it was time for the global top 20 prospect to be an impact player for the Twins. That has not yet happened for Kirilloff as his wrist has bogged him down. Over the past two seasons, Twins fans at times saw him hit the ball hard and really be the hitter prospect analysts promised us, but far more often his wrist left him sidelined, or he at least performed at a subpar level. In 2021, his batted ball data indicated that he would start seeing a lot of hits and extra base hits with a .544 xSLG, but he didn’t play enough for those results to come, only playing 59 games for the Twins. In 2022, he was bad in the MLB, but at AAA he showed that a great hitter is in there, with a 1.106 OPS. There even was a stretch with the Twins from July 2nd to July 23rd when he posted a 157 wRC+, making him a 57% above average hitter. During that stretch, it seemed that he was finally coming along, especially when he went 6 for 13 with 2 home runs and 6 RBIs, in what seemed like a pivotal series against the White Sox. Soon after, he fell off a cliff and didn’t play another game in the majors for the Twins in 2022. Wrists are tricky and sometimes hitters never get back to their best due to a wrist injury. That could be the unfortunate reality for Kirilloff. But if the new medical staff can help him navigate the wrist problem, he can be a huge bat in the middle of the lineup, hitting for extra bases and average, and could even be the best left-handed hitter in the Twins lineup. Ryan Jeffers When the Twins drafted Ryan Jeffers and signed him above slot value, he was seen as a player who would be a really good power hitter, but he likely would have to move off catcher due to his defense. Thus far, he has been a very solid defensive catcher, but he has not yet tapped into the bat that the Twins thought they were getting. In 2022, Jeffers was an above average pitch framer, who handled the staff well, and a well below average hitter, with a wRC+ of 87, making him 13% below average. If he can tap into more power, which prospect analysts believed he had, he can be a real asset for the Twins in 2023. If the Twins can get above average offensive production from catcher, that’s a huge advantage on the competition, when most catchers are their team’s worst hitters. We saw that when Mitch Garver had a monstrous season in 2019, and when the Twins had AJ Pierzynski and Joe Mauer in the 2000s. The most obvious way for him to put up better offensive numbers is for him to play almost every game when the Twins are facing a left-handed pitcher. If that’s around 40-50 games, he’ll be in a great position to succeed, especially if he can even slightly improve against right-handed pitchers. While Christian Vázquez has been better against lefties than righties, he hasn’t been nearly as good over his career as Jeffers has been. Against lefties, Jeffers has crushed, with a wRC+ of 125, which is really good for anybody, but especially for a catcher. Hopefully, he can thrive getting more of those platoon matchups while continuing to be a very good defensive catcher. If he does, the Twins could have a big offensive advantage at catcher, making their lineup dangerous enough to really contend for a division title.2 points- What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
C_frommn and one other reacted to Ted Schwerzler for an article
2 pointsEven before the Twins decided to spend $11 million on one season of Joey Gallo, there was reasonable expectation that Max Kepler’s days with Minnesota may be done. He is basically a known commodity at this point in his career, and while that’s not necessarily a bad thing, the front office likely isn’t worried about being burned by future development. In 2019, when Rocco Baldelli’s club went Bomba Squad on the season, Kepler posted a career year. His 123 OPS+ was easily a high water mark, and well above the 101 OPS+ he owns as a current career average. He had blasted 20 home runs just once previously during a season in his career, and he nearly doubled that with 36 in 2019. Kepler’s bugaboo offensively over the course of his career has been the way in which he contacts the ball. He makes solid contact and drives the ball, but his launch angle and swing path routinely generate the least desirable outcome. He gets very little lift on the baseball, and so even with the banning of the shift, he doesn’t stand to benefit a substantial amount. Generating a greater slugging percentage would require a change in approach, and Kepler has previously stated a desire to drive the ball towards the ground. Obviously his offensive profile limits his overall value, but defensively he’s nothing short of a Gold Glove caliber defender. Despite never having won the award, he fares well by both Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved standards. He’s somewhat stretched in centerfield, at least at Target Field, but he’s exceptional as a corner outfielder. In and of itself, that should have value. When considering trading Kepler, Minnesota is likely doing so to create room and opportunity. In line to make just $8.5 million in 2023 however, dumping him for nothing is probably not a desired path to take. In seeing how the Arizona Diamondbacks benefitted from moving talented outfielder Daulton Varsho, there’s reason to believe Kepler’s return may be misstated. Yes, Varsho is five years younger than Kepler and has already posted a better fWAR than the Twins outfielder ever has, but their game is not all that separate. Results are truly what divides the two, but Kepler has equal or better inputs at the plate. Defensively, Varsho is an exceptional outfielder while also having the ability to catch, but as stated Kepler is no slouch with his glove either. The New York Yankees have been tied to the Twins as a potential trade partner for Kepler, and that has made sense from the time it was reported they wouldn’t go to great lengths for Andrew Benintendi. Gallo didn’t work for Aaron Boone’s club last year, and while Aaron Judge returns, the outfield remains largely in flux. Aaron Hicks is a consistent injury concern, and Giancarlo Stanton isn’t an ideal defender. Harrison Bader is a great defensive talent, but has never shown a consistent offensive ability. There’s certainly a need that could be filled. Even if it isn’t the Yankees, reports have suggested Minnesota will have no shortage of suitors when it comes to Kepler. That doesn’t mean the return is necessarily going to be earth-shattering. Likely, the front office is targeting prospects in return for their current starter. What Kepler’s desirability could do though, is create an opportunity for the Twins to choose the best package from any number of teams that come calling. Don’t expect Minnesota to net a top 10 prospect as the Diamondbacks did in Gabriel Moreno, but moving Kepler certainly isn’t just a way to clear salary or open a position. It may have been fair to suggest that going into the offseason, but the right fielder’s market doesn’t seem to be shaping up that way.2 points- Our Rotation (Peak value or less?
Our Rotation (Peak value or less?
4twinsJA and one other reacted to mikelink45 for a post in a topic
2 pointsAt this point the FA pitching market has shrunk to Michael Wacha and a bunch of former Twins so barring a trade I want to stick with our current rotation; Here are their peak years: Sonny Grey - 2015 (yes, that is 8 years ago) 14 - 7, 2.73 era, 1.082whip 3.5 WAR Joe Ryan - 2022 13 - 8, 3.55, 1.102, 2.2 WAR Kenta Maeda - 2016 16 - 11, 3.58 1.139, 2.8WAR (his whip was amazing in 2020 but that was a short year and things can change fast) Tyler Mahle - 2021 13 - 6, 3.75 1.233 5.1 WAR Bailey Ober - 2022 2 - 3, 3.21 1.054, 0.9 WAR Chris Paddock 2019 9 - 7, 3.33, 0.981 2.9 WAR Here are their worst years: Sonny Grey - 2016 5 - 11 5.69 era, 1.496 Whip, WAR - 0.3 Joe Ryan (only 2 years) 2 - 1 4.05 (I looked at his minors and college stats and he really has not had a bad year). Kenta Maeda - 2021 6 - 5, 4.66 1.298 0.3 WAR Tyler Mahle - 2018 7 - 9. 4.98, 1.589 0.1 WAR Bailey Ober - 2021 3 - 3 4.19, 1.202 1.9 WAR Chris Paddock - 2021 7 - 7, 5.07, 1.209 -0.6 WAR Where do you expect this rotation to be in 2023? High/low or in between? Who rises? Who falls? And who is next in line?2 points- Latest on Carlos Correa's Chaotic Free Agent Saga: Could the Twins Get Back In It?
Latest on Carlos Correa's Chaotic Free Agent Saga: Could the Twins Get Back In It?
se7799 and one other reacted to rationalfan for a post in a topic
2 pointsI have this "debate" all the time with a friend. His perspective is a principled point of view/how things should be - the Twins ownership is worth billions and we as fans should put pressure on them to spend it, the most visible way of doing that is spending the money needed to land and keep stars. My perspective is pragmatic/how things are - the Twins are owned by a family that has owned for 40 years now and looks like many years into the future. They have not and almost certainly will not intentionally run the team at a loss with the comfort of knowing it is worth more when/if they ever sell and it is doubtful they would all agree to run the team as a fan would without regard for the financial aspects. With that in mind, I focus on how the ~50% of revenue dedicated to player payroll should be spent...depth or stars? SP or hitting? lock up home-grown future stars or bring in free agents? try to create a team consistently in the mix or go all-in when things peak and then start all over when the opportunity has passed? In this case, is spending 15-20% of the player payroll on one player with a 10 year guarantee the best way to construct the team? I think without the MRI thing, its' a definite maybe. His knee seems fine the last couple of years, he fits a position the team has not been able to fill internally, he's consistent, his game is not built on speed (which is the first skill to decline) and the roster has a lot of youth such that signing him doesn't create painful decisions in the near future (those decisions down the road would be a good "problem" to have). I personally would prefer an ace starting pitcher - this rotation is filled with low-2, 3 and 4 starters. The MRI thing suggests it may be a good thing he didn't take their offer - perhaps his knee is showing worrisome wear. What I need to say from Falvine is the development of pitching seen in Cleveland, keep trying to extend players as they've done with Polanco, Kepler, Dobnak, Buxton in trying to mimic Atlanta, and then supplement with the right trades and free agents. That and I want that ~50% payroll thing to be an average, not a cap, meaning if they are below that during rebuilding then they are above it to keep a good team together.2 points- 5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
Peter and one other reacted to bloomwcjkl for a post in a topic
2 points15 more wins and 15 less losses would be a division winning team. I think Pagan lost 10 games by himself last year, but that may just have been how it felt in those late inning blow ups. No matter what, I'm looking forward to 2023 baseball.2 points- 5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
Amazing Point2 points- 5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
hitterscount and one other reacted to puckstopper1 for a post in a topic
2 pointsYes - the AL Central is wide open IF Chicago keeps underperforming and Cleveland does not overperform. So there is hope of a pennant race for the Twins in 2023. There is, however, NO hope that they do anything in the playoffs...2 points- How would you divvy up championships?
How would you divvy up championships?
Mike Sixel and one other reacted to Unwinder for a post in a topic
2 pointsSelfishly I'd say two for the Twins, three for the Wolves (I prefer baseball but feel like the Wolves have more to prove). But since we're still in the midst of the holiday season, and I know a lot of people like football, and it would make a lot of Minnesotans happy, I'm gonna say give one to the Twins, one to the Vikings, one to the Wild, one to the Wolves, and one to the Loons (the Lynx don't need my help), but they all have to be in the same year, which will go down as the greatest year in sports history for any one market.2 points- 5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
5 Reasons the Minnesota Twins Will Win in 2023
Dman and one other reacted to tony&rodney for a post in a topic
2 pointsThe optimism is important and I also find myself wishing for the Twins to have better health, a drastic improvement from their young players, a switch in close game results, and significantly improved pitching. The things beyond control is how Detroit and Kansas City improve, whether Chicago plays to their talent, and how anyone can stop Cleveland from winning the division by 10 games again. I think the division will be stronger and thus the Twins will need leaps in improvement from their pitchers, core players, and youth as well as near perfect health to be relevant in 2023. I hope this can happen.2 points- My Way, The Highway, and Breakfast.
My Way, The Highway, and Breakfast.
Alex Boxwell and one other reacted to Doctor Gast for a comment on a blog entry
2 pointsThe point is that our BP was more than equipped from the start with long relief to eat up those innings. The problem is they chose not to take advantage of that resource or they were totally oblivious to what they had. There is where the blame needs to lie. P.S. Archer & Bundy weren't handled properly, otherwise they'd have been more than adequate.2 points- My Way, The Highway, and Breakfast.
My Way, The Highway, and Breakfast.
Alex Boxwell and one other reacted to Nick Hanzlik for a comment on a blog entry
2 pointsTo Alex’s credit I don’t think he was blaming the entirety of the twins collapse on those two. In my opinion Archer and Bundy performed adequately, but our bullpen was not equipped to handle Archer going 4 innings every start. Even after trading for lopez and Fulmer, we really only had 3 guys I would say were trusted with the baseball out of our pen. You either have to let your top guys go a third time through or get more arms in the pen. The way the game is trending the solution is probably the latter. I am cautiously optimistic about the pitching staff (barring injuries) for 2023. Maybe one more pen and one more roto arm. That would settle my stomach a bit I think.2 points- Let's Road Trip: Kansas City & Miami (3/30-4/5)
Going to The k for season opener as well. The Negro Leagues Baseball Museum is a must! My intro to KC BBQ was down the block from there at Arthur Bryant’s. Q39 has been my favorite since….if not on a budget, Jack Stack in Country Club Plaza is a great sit down style. Gave fun on the road trip to KC with family!2 points- What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
Minny505 and one other reacted to HrbieFan for a post in a topic
2 pointsHe is also one of the top players hurt by the shift. How many of his ground balls to to the right side now sneak through? Yankees have a glut of pitchers, hiw about getting some of that depth? Clarke Schmidt or an injured Luis Gil would be fine by me.2 points- The Mets Changed the Game
The Mets Changed the Game
NotAboutWinning and one other reacted to Mark G for a post in a topic
2 pointsOuch! Please don't bring the gov't in; the market place can correct things far better than pandering politicians can. And the majority of them are from NY and CA, so it just changes who from those states are gumming up the game. ?2 points- What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
Minny505 and one other reacted to Mike Sixel for a post in a topic
2 pointsSo, you get the same player plus a prospect, that's a win. I remain convinced they aren't trading Kepler2 points- What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?
In My La Z boy and one other reacted to tony&rodney for a post in a topic
2 pointsCould Max return Oswaldo Cabrera from the Yankees? Does Miami have any interest in Kepler? When the Twins signed Gallo, they also likely reduced the asking price for Kepler. Kepler, Buxton, Gallo, Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, Gordon, Garlick, and Celestino make nine outfielders for thirteen roster positions. The Twins have been giving playing time to players with the highest paying contracts, which means an outfield of Gallo, Buxton, and Kepler right now. Gordon was the Twins best outfielder last season and the one who displayed the most growth as well. It should be interesting to see what Falvey does between now and March.2 points- Eovaldi to the Rangers
Eovaldi to the Rangers
DocBauer and one other reacted to Vanimal46 for a post in a topic
2 pointsFalvey and Levine won’t sign free agent pitchers to big time contracts. There’s 7 years of history proving this. Getting upset about them not signing free agent pitching is futile.2 points- Eovaldi to the Rangers
Eovaldi to the Rangers
DocBauer and one other reacted to chpettit19 for a post in a topic
2 pointsAh, got ya. Well then I simply am glad they learned from previous mistakes and are no longer bringing in pitchers that can't start more than 20 games. They've already got 4 guys in the rotation that we aren't sure can make more than 20 starts, and I don't think bringing in another one really solves any problems. He's a good pitcher, but not significantly better than anything already in the rotation so I don't see him as any sort of real upgrade over the #2-3 type, injury prone pitchers they already have.2 points- Eovaldi to the Rangers
Eovaldi to the Rangers
wsnydes and one other reacted to Linus for a post in a topic
2 pointsOk. We are talking past each other. I wasn’t complaining about them bringing in pitchers with injury histories. What I was saying is that Eovaldi injury history shouldn’t be a reason not to sign him because they have done it before.2 points- Correa potentially available again
Correa potentially available again
nclahammer and one other reacted to Nine of twelve for a post in a topic
2 pointsLinus was too smart and knew Lucy too well to be suckered into that situation. It was Charlie Brown who was always the one to let his good-hearted faith in other people mask his ability to see that Lucy was not to be trusted.2 points- Eovaldi to the Rangers
Eovaldi to the Rangers
Old Crow and one other reacted to old nurse for a post in a topic
2 pointsEovaldi had one good year 2 years ago. Earlier in the thread it was about him being best pitcher. Now it is beat out number 5. Is Eovaldi better than developing one of Winder, SWR, Varland or any other prospect? Based on last year, what did he do to be even worth 16 million? Regression to his mean says a better 2022 but fewer games. Why would a pitcher come here? Last established pitcher to come here and get better was ?2 points- 3 Top Twins Prospects with Something to Prove in 2023
3 Top Twins Prospects with Something to Prove in 2023
glunn and one other reacted to Rosterman for a post in a topic
2 pointsThose three don't even have to be added to the 40-man in the 2023 off-season. All will be given a chance to advance, which is a plus. The prospects I am most concerned about are Jordon Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Blayne Enlow...and in a minor way, Cole Sands and Josh Winder. Time is running out for those five pitchers who may only keep a roster spot if they pitch from the back-of-the-bullpen, but we only need one (or maybe two) if that is the situation.2 points- 3 Top Twins Prospects with Something to Prove in 2023
3 Top Twins Prospects with Something to Prove in 2023
glunn and one other reacted to Doctor Gast for a post in a topic
2 pointsPrielipp will be difficult to evaluate until he actually settles into pro ball. Martin is ready to take his next step and E Rod has a lot of potential which eventually will materialize. Noah Miller got pushed out of the top 10 by the new draftees & break out players. He's still young & he'll continue to be steady until he breaks out2 pointsThis leaderboard is set to Chicago/GMT-06:00 - What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?