Projecting the Defensive Future of Minnesota's Top Prospects

Polonco at second, Lewis at short and Miranda at third.  Keep Buxton and Kepler in center and right.  Add Larnach and Martin in left field with Martin moving around to center and right as needed.  Arraez gets a lot of at bats as DH, while also backing up Polo and Miranda at second and third.  Kirilloff is the first baseman with Sano as DH and AK's backup.  

Would be heck of an every day lineup without the need to go out and sign any expensive free agents.  But it all starts with Lewis being able to handle short.  As for who plays short when Lewis needs a day off, could be Polo, Martin or another backup utility guy...maybe Gordon?  

A couple of issues here.  I think you are correct on Miranda, assuming his bat will play here.  As I hope the Twins sign buxton to an extension, you have more outfield prospects than positions.  

1.  Assumption Kirloff and Sano rotate between 1B and DH, with Kirloff in the outfield at times, this blocks up one position. And I would not give up on Sano this early, he could wind up being a game changer.  Laurach is going to need a place to play unless he cannot cut it, too early to tell, but I doubt it. 

2. By 2023 you are going to need a place for both Lewis and Martin.  That to me  would  mean leaving Lewis at SS until other positions are sorted out.  I like Martin (he like Arraez, can be a pest and put pressure on other teams, both by extending AB's, and running when be gets on).  Will he hit enough, I am guessing yes.

3.  That leaves you, with the Kepler issue.  RIght now he does not have a lot of trade value, this all depends on buxton. 

If you extend Buxton, I would wait until late winter and see what he would bring.  There is always going to be a cost controlled club (Miami, Tampa, Oakland, Cleveland), who would give you a pitcher if Kepler was packaged with another player.  I can see this happening.  

I say this somewhat tongue in cheek, but I don't see any young player in this organization staying at any one position throughout their career.  I would say Miranda has the best chance, but this organization believes playing multiple positions is more valuable than excelling at one and playing there full time.  Correct me if I am remembering wrong, but we only had 3 players on the entire roster (non pitchers and catchers, and even Garver sneaks over to first once in a while) that played one position only the entire season, and they were long established veterans.  I wouldn't expect any of the rookies to settle in at one position, again with Miranda having the best chance, any time in the near future.  

I look forward to all of them.  Put Lewis at SS and let's judge him then.  Keep Buxton in CF.  Flexibility is fine, but look at Houston - how often do their players move around - they have found a lineup and stay with it.  I like letting players get comfortable where they belong.  Then use flex when necessary.  I do not know much about Martin, he has not been with us long enough for TD to educate me so I will wait on him, but I want Lewis and Miranda on the club this year. 

Positionless team in 2023, with everyone being capable of a bunch of positions allowing you to send out any 8 non catchers you want on a given day. Unrealistic and potentially stupid, but fun idea.

1 hour ago, roger said:

Polonco at second, Lewis at short and Miranda at third.  Keep Buxton and Kepler in center and right.  Add Larnach and Martin in left field with Martin moving around to center and right as needed.  Arraez gets a lot of at bats as DH, while also backing up Polo and Miranda at second and third.  Kirilloff is the first baseman with Sano as DH and AK's backup.  

Would be heck of an every day lineup without the need to go out and sign any expensive free agents.  But it all starts with Lewis being able to handle short.  As for who plays short when Lewis needs a day off, could be Polo, Martin or another backup utility guy...maybe Gordon?  

This sounds like a great best case for the post-Donaldson future. Assuming this gives you Sano, Garver, Kirilloff, Polanco, MIranda, Lewis, Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, Jeffers, Arraez, and Martin. So, you do have room for Gordon, Palacios, or some other Adrianza-esque SS backup. But leaves Rooker or any other bench slugger out of the picture.

The problem at SS does not magically disappear in any of these scenarios. The position requires range, speed, a good glove, a strong arm and mental toughness. I suppose the closest is Lewis, but his arm is being questioned in MiLB, so it seems unlikely that it will play well in MLB. As much as I disliked Simmons bat, I still liked his play at SS. He had the highest defensive WAR on the team outside of Buxton (I believe). My hope is to go get an all-star SS who can hit a bit better than Simmons, but if the plan is to stick a sub-par SS there who can hit, I think we're spinning our wheels. I'd rather sign Simmons to another one-year deal in that scenario.

3 hours ago, roger said:

Polonco at second, Lewis at short and Miranda at third.  Keep Buxton and Kepler in center and right.  Add Larnach and Martin in left field with Martin moving around to center and right as needed.  Arraez gets a lot of at bats as DH, while also backing up Polo and Miranda at second and third.  Kirilloff is the first baseman with Sano as DH and AK's backup.  

Would be heck of an every day lineup without the need to go out and sign any expensive free agents.  But it all starts with Lewis being able to handle short.  As for who plays short when Lewis needs a day off, could be Polo, Martin or another backup utility guy...maybe Gordon?  

Almost exactly what I was thinking earlier. Additional thought is Larnach in RF and Keplwr gone with Martin flying solo in LF. Of course, we have Celestino for a 4th OF as well.

Wallner and/or Cabbage as an OF/DH on the bench?

As to backup SS, think Steer or Julien perhaps?

Whoever comes up there is one thing that was clear.  Gardenhire in St Paul needs to do a better job of teaching the fundamentals of how to play a wall! Not one of the prospects including Kiroloff at first, Larnach, Rooker or Celestino in the OF had a clue on how to play a wall. They either run into it or shy away from it. That's on the organization.

3 hours ago, beckmt said:

...3.  That leaves you, with the Kepler issue.  RIght now he does not have a lot of trade value, this all depends on buxton...

 

Kepler's trade value is high, it's just not elite. In fact, it's higher than some names like Buxton, Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, Ryan, Ober, Canterino and Rogers on Baseballtradevalues.com. That site isn't perfect, but it presents a much less biased view of players than fan sites have. Before people absolutely lose their minds at the audacity of Kepler being ranked higher than Buxton in terms of trade value, the valuation website just uses data.

SS and CF are the most important  and most demanding positions, almost all candidates don't make it let alone excel there. I don't know if Lewis or Martin will stick at their proposed positions, odds are they won't. 

We won 100+ games in '19 because we had an awesome line up that were all hitting on all 8cyl.s (with a juiced ball) and a top rate rotation ( where Pineda was the # 5 and he was raking) until the BP blew up. The rotation (especially a sick Gibson and a transformed BP Perez, they pitched much more innings than Odorizzi and Pineda) were overextended and limped across the finish line. 

We can't ever expect these conditions to exist and ignore our defense. Our goal isn't to be lucky & win a 100 games but to advance in the post season and even win the big one again.

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

This is why I can see Arraez as trade bait

As long as you don't expect much in return. I don't think he moves the needle in a package deal for a significant pitcher either. What's the point of trading him if the return is near zero?

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

What's the point of keeping him if he has no value (which I disagree with, btw)?

Just keep him and hope he hits better and has more value than his trade value which I'm guessing  is very low considering his knees and recent performance at the plate. You probably don't get the same return as Lamonte Wade did last season, and we'd have been better off not trading him.

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm continually gobsmacked by people wanting to basically keep a horrible team together......if players don't have trade value, they don't belong on the MLB roster of a winning team (unless that lack of trade value is due to high, fair or not, pay).

edit to add: to be clear, this is NOT aimed at one poster, but this site. Which seems to want to keep nearly every player on last year's 40 man ......that isn't a fungible RP.

I don't think they're horrible, but they aren't a winning team. Arraez is a lottery ticket going into next year. I don't think he has any substantial trade value but what's the alternative to keeping him and seeing what next year brings? Trade him for Shaun Anderson?

Austin Martin could very well end up at 2nd .. 

I will continue to say this exercise reaffirms my belief that now would be the time to sell high on Polanco for pitching. Arraez likely doesn't bring back what you'd aim. Deal from positions of strength, depth is there.

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm continually gobsmacked by people wanting to basically keep a horrible team together......if players don't have trade value, they don't belong on the MLB roster of a winning team (unless that lack of trade value is due to high, fair or not, pay).

edit to add: to be clear, this is NOT aimed at one poster, but this site. Which seems to want to keep nearly every player on last year's 40 man ......that isn't a fungible RP.

I am with you, Mike.  Time to shake it up.  We have relatively poor roster construction.  Reshape it.  We also need to invest time in developing pitching and many here are unwilling to make that  investment.  Many ardent fans just can't accept investing in development.  Their answer is to buy a team through free agency and  trade away prospects for the here and now.  This is simply not an effective approach for a below average revenue team and this has been proven around the league.  I am (using your word) gobsmacked by how often the tactics of successful and unsuccessful teams are ignored.  The Mets, Phillies, and Padres made all kinds of trades and invested in free agents.  They all failed.  In the case of the Mets and Phillies, repeatedly.  Boston and San Francisco tweaked rosters.  Tampa Bay traded Snell and let Morton go.  They got  lambasted by everyone.  The national media proclaimed they were punting 2022.  Some inferred they were incompetent.  We should all pay a little more attention to how winners are built.

Sure the big trades can be impactful but how many under the radar trades for A ballers turns out huge.  Sure, trading for Tatis Jr. is a little lucky but there have been plenty of great players acquired for next to nothing.  Those are the trades that really tilt the scales.  Gil and Ynoa are not all that proven yet but how much better would we look if we had those two now.  Fans are hyper focused on the right now and the block buster trades and that's not how a mid market team builds a contender.  Tampa's trade for Snell was brilliant.  Mejia is not as valuable as Snell but he is a good inexpensive role player will 4 years of control.  They also got a SP that might be better than Snell with the exception of Snell's one exceptional year.  He is already playing at the MLB level.  Plus, they got a 50 FV catcher and a 21 yo A ball pitcher that had a .857 WHIP last year.  This is how a team without limited financial resource builds a contender.  

I hear you.  Recently on another forum a writer gave an opinion about what next years roster might look like; it looked almost identical to the roster we ended the season with, give or take a couple of possible additions in the off season.  I looked at it and thought.......hmmm.......isn't this the same team we just watched?  And when talking about trades, no one seemed to think anyone would bring a haul except Bux, of course.  Which, I am guessing, is why the roster (in his forum) looked quite similar to the one we ended 2021 with.  

Individually, not very many players we have right now bring much back in return.  A package, however, might be worth exploring, as it would fill a few holes we need filled.  Maybe more than one package, but that would take courage and insight.  And a few acquisitions in the FO market, primarily in the pitching department.  Boy, isn't this fun?  Thinking about what a team with a purpose would do to be a contender right now?  Yeah, well, that is what a long winter is for, I guess; dreaming of what it could be like if only........ahem.........sorry, I lost my head there for a second.  Back to reality.  Fun while it lasted, though.    

18 minutes ago, Tim said:

Austin Martin could very well end up at 2nd ..

Yea, why didn't the OP list that as a potential for Martin. He doesn't even explore the possibility Instead, he just pigeonholes him into corner outfielder. Because of his arm? You don't need a rocket arm to play 2nd base but it's also handy as an OF. Incomplete analysis on that aspect.

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Kepler's trade value is high, it's just not elite. In fact, it's higher than some names like Buxton, Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, Ryan, Ober, Canterino and Rogers on Baseballtradevalues.com. That site isn't perfect, but it presents a much less biased view of players than fan sites have. Before people absolutely lose their minds at the audacity of Kepler being ranked higher than Buxton in terms of trade value, the valuation website just uses data.

I still think the teams that would trade for a full year of Buxton are likely to give up more than a team that's trading for 2-3 years of Kepler. If those guys were set to hit the open market today, it's not even a discussion who would be more valuable. 

7 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Arraez has quite a bit of value, I think. He does have elite contact skills and is an average defender. I remember listening to Joe Nathan say that if Arraez stayed healthy, he was a candidate for 3000 hits. I know he was speaking to a Twins audience, but that’s a pretty strong endorsement. 
 

There probably are 5-10 teams with better 2B, but many clubs would want an on-base machine with three years of team control, and he’s only 24. 

I believe many on this site tend to overlook just how good Luis Arraez has been. 

Over 3 seasons, age 22-24, Arraez has a career .313 avg / .374 obp / .777 ops

That's a really damn good major league hitter, that is still developing.