Trade Retrospective: Who Won the Jake Cave/Luis Gil Trade?

Cave has done himself no favors this year by trying to play hurt (if indeed that has been the issue--given the vast difference between his stats in 2019/2020 and this year, I am inclined to believe that).  When healthy, I think Jake Cave is a very good 4th outfielder.

That said, I don't think 4th outfielders are something a team should have to resort to trades in order to acquire, and they certainly shouldn't give up pitching prospects to do it.

The Twins should have never let Robbie Grossman go and kept him instead of Cave,  or kept both, as the year they were both on the team Cave had more HR pop but Grossman had a better BA.

Hard to have a good comment here.  Nothing against Jake, but he is not what I want in a fourth OF.  I will wait to see Gil in the future before saying who won or loss. 

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Cave has done himself no favors this year by trying to play hurt (if indeed that has been the issue--given the vast difference between his stats in 2019/2020 and this year, I am inclined to believe that).  When healthy, I think Jake Cave is a very good 4th outfielder.

That said, I don't think 4th outfielders are something a team should have to resort to trades in order to acquire, and they certainly shouldn't give up pitching prospects to do it.

As far as I can tell he’s healthy now and he was healthy in 2020... I don’t see him suddenly turning back into what he was in 2018/19. He’s striking out about as much as Sano this year and has worse plate discipline... and that’s not to mention his frustrating fielding. There will be many superior 4th OF options out there, I see no reason to retain him.

The Hicks and Cave trades are good examples of the differences between a top-tier and second-tier MLB club. In each case, the Yankees assessed areas of organizational strength and used surplus prospects to acquire high-upside players who were sold low. Pretty clear how both of these turned out for the Twins, despite different FO staff at the helm.

One wonders why Falvey and Levine can't do the same with Rooker, Jeffers or Larnach, or couldn't have done so with Wade or Baddoo. But it's these kinds of moves that separate the best from the also-rans.

15 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

But the number of defensible but didn't work out as envisioned moves by this FO is certainly growing.

This is the best sentence about this FO I've yet seen written. Being generally sharp but unsuccessful (or even unlucky) isn't enough to keep these kinds of jobs, in my opinion.

The Yankees!!!!!!!

52 minutes ago, Danchat said:

As far as I can tell he’s healthy now and he was healthy in 2020... I don’t see him suddenly turning back into what he was in 2018/19. He’s striking out about as much as Sano this year and has worse plate discipline... and that’s not to mention his frustrating fielding. There will be many superior 4th OF options out there, I see no reason to retain him.

I think he is healthy now (after he missed two months), but he is also not getting consistent playing time (66 PA's since his return on July 25 in 45 games).  It's hard to get a rhythm when you're essentially a pinch hitter, or you only play once every 3 days.

Before this is construed as a defense of Cave, I agree that he should not be on this team next year.  Kiriloff, Larnach, and Celestino should all be ahead of him in the pecking order, to say nothing of Buxton, Arraez moonlighting in left, or Lewis (if he has to get moved to the outfield).  My initial post simply was musing about a potential reason that an above average player in 2018/2019 would all of the sudden become a useless one.

Gil has quite an arm. This kind of arm should not be traded at 19 years old, especially for a 4th outfielder. Not sure any of us needs hindsight to make this claim. Live young arm for a 25 yr old 4th outfielder. Wasn't wise then, and looks worse now.

I celebrated Twins Mathematical Elimination Day yesterday.  I'll do the same for the Vikings on Sunday.

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Larnach, and Celestino should all be ahead of him in the pecking order, 

ARRH, Cave II and CAVE III

The Twins got 3 years of plus WAR, while winning two Division titles. The Yanks have gotten 25 MLB innings. As of today it isn't even close the Twins have won the first 3 years, this year is a draw unless Gill continues to pitch well. Going forward is more than likely the Yanks, but it is the kind of trade you do when you are trying to win.

I honestly did not even think this was debatable at this point.  We got the use of a 4th outfielder (which are a dime a dozen) for a lottery ticket that looks like cashed big and would certainly look good in our rotation going into 2022.

I don't need to be Nostradamus to know the Yankees will have won this trade in the same way they have been dominating our Twins over the last decade - in decisive fashion ?

1 hour ago, RpR said:

ARRH, Cave II and CAVE III

Cave wishes.

2 hours ago, RpR said:

ARRH, Cave II and CAVE III

We can always count on you for a negative response.

8 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

We can always count on you for a negative response.

I know Pie-in-the-Sky dreamings of rookies is SOOO much more relaxing than reality.

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The Twins got 3 years of plus WAR, while winning two Division titles.

What role did Cave play in those titles that a replacement-level free agent, or LaMonte Wade even as a rookie, couldn't have provided? It's just so unwise to trade a promising pitching prospect for a 4th outfielder.

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

What role did Cave play in those titles that a replacement-level free agent, or LaMonte Wade even as a rookie, couldn't have provided? It's just so unwise to trade a promising pitching prospect for a 4th outfielder.

How do you know that ?

it seems Gil's floor is solid reliever.  6 years of that from what we got from Cave is a victory for the Yankees.  But not by as much as you would think.  If Gil remains in the rotation as a 3rd, 4th or 5th starter.  Then its a huge win for the Yankees.  but not earth ending for us.  we have lots of pitching prospects who are getting close.  Ryan, Ober, Gant and Dobnak give us an uninspiring floor for next year.  so having Gil be someone in the back of the rotation after the league gets a chance to know him...... is that really what we need or a number 1 or 2 starter?

1 hour ago, RpR said:

I know Pie-in-the-Sky dreamings of rookies is SOOO much more relaxing than reality.

Celestino was bad this year.  He was also a 22 year old with 24 total games above High A being told to play center field in the majors.  Look at what he's done in AAA since he's been there (where he should be at this point in his career)--.909 OPS, 144 wRC+.  For what it's worth, that's not too far off of Jose Miranda, who is the no-doubt MiLB player of the year for the Twins.

Larnach, despite all his struggles, still put up an 89 wRC+ in the bigs as a 24 year old who hadn't played ball in 18 months.  His wRC+ has been above 139 at every stop in the minors before this year, which is better than Nelson Cruz' career wRC+.  His slump is concerning, but to write off either of these guys, much less both, as career bad 4th outfielders before they turn 25, and after a combined 360 MLB PAs is just ridiculous.

19 year olds coming off surgery are exactly what you trade. Cave was a useful player for 2 years.

Keeping Cave while dumping Wade is what sucks.

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Celestino was bad this year.  He was also a 22 year old with 24 total games above High A being told to play center field in the majors.  Look at what he's done in AAA since he's been there (where he should be at this point in his career)--.909 OPS, 144 wRC+.  For what it's worth, that's not too far off of Jose Miranda, who is the no-doubt MiLB player of the year for the Twins.

Larnach, despite all his struggles, still put up an 89 wRC+ in the bigs as a 24 year old who hadn't played ball in 18 months.  His wRC+ has been above 139 at every stop in the minors before this year, which is better than Nelson Cruz' career wRC+.  His slump is concerning, but to write off either of these guys, much less both, as career bad 4th outfielders before they turn 25, and after a combined 360 MLB PAs is just ridiculous.

There is no guarantee either will get better, all that is either wishful thinking, or blind faith.

With rare exceptions, AAA is not Major League pitching no matter how good one may seem; unless they are facing a major league pitcher sent down for rehab.

1 hour ago, a-wan said:

19 year olds coming off surgery are exactly what you trade. Cave was a useful player for 2 years.

Keeping Cave while dumping Wade is what sucks.

Exactly. On one hand, you trade Gil, who turns out to be a pretty good pitching prospect, for a 4th OF. On the other hand, you trade Wade, who was at least going to be a serviceable 4th OF, for Shaun Anderson, who you end up releasing in a few months. So if you are comfortable giving up a decent pitching prospect for Cave, you at least have to get something similar in return for Wade, not a Shaun Anderson.

6 hours ago, a-wan said:

19 year olds coming off surgery are exactly what you trade. Cave was a useful player for 2 years.

Keeping Cave while dumping Wade is what sucks.

I agree.

12 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

What role did Cave play in those titles that a replacement-level free agent, or LaMonte Wade even as a rookie, couldn't have provided? It's just so unwise to trade a promising pitching prospect for a 4th outfielder.

The Cave that had a WAR of 1.5 in 2018 in 91 games, the Cave that had a .9 WAR in 72 games, even last year had a .3 in 42 games. That is better than replacement level. Wade played some in 19 and 20 in was negative in the WAR  or 0. I am not a really a fan of Cave, but he played a role in two divisions champions that was statistically better than replacement.

16 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

Gil has quite an arm. This kind of arm should not be traded at 19 years old, especially for a 4th outfielder. Not sure any of us needs hindsight to make this claim. Live young arm for a 25 yr old 4th outfielder. Wasn't wise then, and looks worse now.

From what I can tell I can't find a prospect list that had him even in the top 50 for the Twins prior to being traded. He has walked 165 guys in 284 minor league innings, he has walked 15 in his first 25 major league innings. This year e pitched in AA started 7 games for 30 innings with 13 walks, lots of K's and a decent 3.23 ERA. He started in AAA 10 times and pitched in 11 games, 46.1, 28 walks with a 4.66 ERA.

If these aren't the type of pitchers you trade, who the heck can you trade and expect to get anything back for.

9 hours ago, RpR said:

There is no guarantee either will get better, all that is either wishful thinking, or blind faith.

With rare exceptions, AAA is not Major League pitching no matter how good one may seem; unless they are facing a major league pitcher sent down for rehab.

And yet you are willing to write them both off as nothing more than 4th OF's after 360 total PA when neither of them played for 18 months. so you are literally doing the same thing only in reverse. 

blind faith is bad, correct. but so is blindly cynical about everything this team does and every player on it. 

55 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The Cave that had a WAR of 1.5 in 2018 in 91 games, the Cave that had a .9 WAR in 72 games, even last year had a .3 in 42 games. That is better than replacement level. Wade played some in 19 and 20 in was negative in the WAR  or 0. I am not a really a fan of Cave, but he played a role in two divisions champions that was statistically better than replacement.

 

From what I can tell I can't find a prospect list that had him even in the top 50 for the Twins prior to being traded. He has walked 165 guys in 284 minor league innings, he has walked 15 in his first 25 major league innings. This year e pitched in AA started 7 games for 30 innings with 13 walks, lots of K's and a decent 3.23 ERA. He started in AAA 10 times and pitched in 11 games, 46.1, 28 walks with a 4.66 ERA.

If these aren't the type of pitchers you trade, who the heck can you trade and expect to get anything back for.

Gil is still 2 years younger than Ryan - 3 years younger than Barnes and Ober - is there an "eye" test anymore? How about trading Ynoa? Same mistake.
No, these are not the type of pitchers you trade for bench players. Strotman we just got in the Cruz trade is 2 years older than Gil right now. He is the type of pitcher you trade. Not electric, not 19, not for a bench player. 

11 hours ago, RpR said:

There is no guarantee either will get better, all that is either wishful thinking, or blind faith.

With rare exceptions, AAA is not Major League pitching no matter how good one may seem; unless they are facing a major league pitcher sent down for rehab.

Negative, negative, negative.  Your consistency is amazing.