The Case Against the Twins Trading Luis Arraez

I totally agree with this. Some people act like injuries will never happen, and then are screwed when they do. Polanco had ankle surgery in 2 straight off-season's, although moving to second base this year likely helped him out in that regard. Donaldson has an injury history, although it did not bite him too bad this year. Those are two positions that Arraez can play well. There is a very real chance Miranda struggles right away in the big leagues, and that is another chance for Arraez to play. Just because he doesn't have a clear spot to play right now, doesn't mean there won't be one come May or June. I would much rather hang onto him unless the trade is too good to decline. Worst case scenario Arraez can play DH and give a starter the day off and play 5 games a week.

I don't disagree.  I think the Twins need to and will keep him this year for sure.  Too many unknowns in the possible replacements for Arraez.  We all expected Kirilloff to take off at the MLB level right and that didn't happen.  So I think some patience is required here.  If Miranda, Martin and Lewis get a chance to succeed at the MLB level do then I think Arraez is the most likely player to be moved.  If not then we still need Arraez in the insurance role he provides.

The thing you have to keep in mind though is we cannot keep them all.  At some point someone has to go.  Whether that is Nick Gordon, Donaldson, Arraez or Kepler or someone else.  If we don't want to lose good prospects we need to make room.  to make room someone has to be traded or released.

We have great depth at the 2nd base position.  Martin and Arraez might have matching skillsets with Martin having better speed and likely better defense.  They are both Contact hitters with a good eye at the plate.  The Twins won't keep both of them and Arraez will get more expensive soon.  Doing the math he looks like the guy to eventually trade to me.

When Donaldson is healthy I think playing Arraez at 2B and Polanco at SS will give the Twins the best chance to win. Even when Donaldson is injured I would slot Miranda at 3B and keep Polanco and Arraez up the middle. They won a lot of games with the pair up the middle in spite of their defensive short comings.

If they can trade Arraez for a better fit like a starting shortstop or number three starter with control than by all means make that trade, I would have to be blown away to trade him for players projected to debut 2023 or later.

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't see the depth so many people see and agree trading Arraez isn't a necessity and shouldn't be done simply because there's a "surplus."

100% agree, without Arraez I don't see depth anywhere except maybe catcher.  Since 2016 AK has played 340 games, At this point Laranch and Celestino shouldn't be counted on (Rooker?), and Miranda has never played a major league game. Lewis hasn't played in 2 years and had a .649 OPS in AA the last time he played, and Martin while having a decent enough first year certainly didn't scream skip AAA and start in the majors.

To me the Twins offense depth is very similiar to their pitching depth, damn you hope most hold their own and succeed, but things could get real ugly real fast, because there really isn't anything in the pipeline after these prospects (close to being ready)

Several articles of late talking about whether or not to trade Arraez.  Has anyone heard anything, even a hint, from the FO that they are talking/thinking about trading him?  I am certain they would listen to offers, but I haven't seen anything from people who are in contact with them ever mentioning moving Arraez.  Or did I just miss it?

No player is off-limits for the right price.  If there is a great deal to be had then pull the trigger, but do not just move him for a meh player because you believe you have depth.  I know fans wish he had more power, but his ability to put ball in play all over the field and work counts does not come around often.  He is not the same type of hitter, but his path reminds me so much of Jose Altuve.  Both were overlooked because of stature and lack of power.  Altuve had very little pop early in his career but just kept on getting hits and made his way into lineup.  He eventually learned how to hit with some power and got some MVP votes.  First double digit HR season was his age 25 season with 15.

Will Arraez develop power?  I do not know, but he is entering his age 25 season now.  His swing does not suggest he will ever be a 20 plus HR guy, but if he can learn some power to keep defenses honest so his line drives land in there and OF does not cheat in a ton.  

I personally think it is easier to teach a contact guy how to have more power, than a power guy how to get more contact. Maybe he stays as just a .350 plus OBP with ..400 slugging about.  I would be willing to send that out in the line up regularly.  

12 minutes ago, roger said:

Several articles of late talking about whether or not to trade Arraez.  Has anyone heard anything, even a hint, from the FO that they are talking/thinking about trading him?  I am certain they would listen to offers, but I haven't seen anything from people who are in contact with them ever mentioning moving Arraez.  Or did I just miss it?

I haven't seen anything about the FO wanting to trade Arraez other than their broad statement at the trade deadline that they would listen to offers on just about anyone on the roster.  Names like Buxton, Kepler, Pineda etc were definitely out there but I don't remember much talk about Arraez.

IMO, the Arraez trade talk picked up after the Berrios trade with the Twins getting Martin.   Ever since then there have been several sites reading the tea leaves about the Twins trading Arraez.  Even those of us on this site see it as a likely future outcome if Martin continues to do what he does.

Will 2023 be too late to maximize value in trades or is 2022 be the the year maximize value. What is the risk factor of injury in comparison between 2021 & 2022? What will the market be for Arraez in 2022-23 and what will the market offer for Arraez in 2022-23.If a trade of Arraez for a better asset who surpasses Arraez’s production, then it’s good to do it in 2021-22.. Then if the  new player improves the Twins  record to 85-90 wins! Then why not make the trade in 2022? I think there are a couple very good starting pitchers that have trade value equal to Arraez’s trade value on the market now and fill the hole between the starting rotation and the prospects on the farm and improve the Twins record by 5 to 12 wins next year. 

• C Depth - Garver, Jeffers, Rortvedt
• 1B Depth - Kirilloff, Rooker, Sano, Larnach Donaldson, Garver
• 2B Depth - Polanco, Arraez, Gordon, Miranda
• 3B Depth - Donaldson, Miranda, Arraez
• SS Depth - ?, Gordon, Arraez, Palacios
• LF Depth - Rooker, Celestino, Larnach, Cave
• CF Depth - Buxton, Celestino, Cave
• RF Depth - Kepler, Celestino, Larnach, Cave
• DH Depth - Sano, Garver, Donaldson, Rooker

There's a lot of depth... and that doesn't take Martin into consideration who Falvey talked about potentially using as the starting shortstop in 2022. Arraez is a 2B, which is where Martin is expected to end up according to the scouting community. We have more than enough depth there. Trading a starting 2B caliber player who is blocked at a position like Arraez, if he brings in good value, puts both Arraez and the Twins in a better position on paper.

These are all valid and good points Theo, and I would add each reason is why Arraez is the Twins 2nd best trade asset to Polanco.  I'm not trading Polanco.  I'm building with him going forward.  In another post, I laid out how I would keep Arraez and trade Austin Martin if that is what it would take to acquire an Ace potential pitcher from the Marlins like Sixto Sanchez.  Why would Miami trade a pitcher like that ?  Because they already have TWO Ace level young pitchers in Rogers and Alcantara a STRONG #2 in Pablo Lopez as well as a very talented #3 in Cabrera.  They also have young, high ceiling pitchers like Meyer and Luzardo.  Quite simply, they're LOADED with young pitching but VERY short on offense.  Arraez is ready to step into a place in Miami's lineup right now.  Austin Martin would take a little longer, half a season at minimum. 

I'm NOT trading Miranda.  He's playing 3B when Donaldson DH's.  He's playing 2B when Polanco DH's.  He's playing 1B when Sano DH's (which might be very often).  He may not hit .300 like Arraez but his power and run creation will be superior.  I'm risking it with Miranda.  He's not starting 2022 in St. Paul.  What more does he have to prove there ? 

Arraez is one of my favorite players on the Twins.  But I'm moving him for Sixto Sanchez if possible.  I'll be 64 in May.  I saw Rod Carew when he came up in 1967.  You can lay all the "comparisons" you want side by side of Carew and Arraez, even down to BOTH of them having knee problems.  There ARE similarities.  There is only one Rod Carew.  To Miami, I stress the heck out of those similarities.  But there is only one Rod Carew.  I'm looking to add Sanchez to a staff that could see Balazovic, Winder, Duran and Canterino to go with Ryan and Ober.  Arraez is my #1 chip to get him.  Austin Martin is #2.

I do think Arraez could play shortstop... but he'd have to show up in great condition to pull it off. His weight limits his range and makes his knees injury prone. If he really conditioned himself, I believe his arm is strong enough and he could potentially handle the spot. As he was last year and previous years? No. This is similar to how I feel about Miguel Sano. He has all the tools necessary to be an outstanding 3rd baseman... but it would require dropping 60lbs.

I posted before reading everyone's comments because I just wanted to say what I think before taking in what others think. bean has laid out the depth (although I don't like seeing Cave listed anywhere   Nice job bean)!!

Look, I don't think anyone wants to give Arraez (or anyone else for that matter) away for "just a guy."  

We can certainly trade Arraez because he honestly hasn't had THAT big of a positive effect on our offense.  Rocco refuses to put him at the top of the order consistently and in the lineup everyday.  And Arraez in LF is O.K. in spurts but not as your "starting" LF.

There WILL be injuries, but Miranda, Gordon, possibly Martin sooner than later are all capable options.  Especially Miranda. Some will field better, some will hit with more power.  Arraez is NOT a linchpin of our offense.  He's a great Contact Hitter/On Base Machine,  but he's not Buxton, Polanco, Donaldson, Sano (when he's swinging well).  I'll bet you my house mortgage Kiriloff has a greater offensive impact this season than Arraez.  It's tough to make an argument that missing the 7th, 8th or 9th best offensive player in your lineup is a death blow to your offense.  If you can add a solid MLG starting pitcher (which we currently literally have almost NONE) you trade a guy like Arraez.

I like Arraez but he's expendable. Defensively he'll catch the ball if the ball is hit at him but he has no range. It pains me to see catchable balls bleed through the infield when he plays the infield. Arraez absolutely cannot play SS. We have a lot depth where he's ok defensively (we have Gordon, Lewis, Miranda, Martin and Larnach which all are better defensively) at positions which are very easy to find.

His at bats are very entertaining so he still has some hype. As teams get to know him the OF will play him "in" because he has no pop, the INF will play him "back" because he's not fast. Though he'll gets some hits against poor defenses, good defenses will probably limit his hits. His value has dropped considerably from last year and next year it'll drop considerably more as his hype fades. Last year I advocated the Twins to seek out a great pitcher in trade for Arraez, this year we can still find a good trade but next year will be too late.

All being said, should the Twins trade Arraez? the answer is a resounding yes, if they are are serious team. Will the Twins trade Arraez? I'd be very surprised if they did

1 hour ago, Old fox said:

Will 2023 be too late to maximize value in trades or is 2022 be the the year maximize value. What is the risk factor of injury in comparison between 2021 & 2022? What will the market be for Arraez in 2022-23 and what will the market offer for Arraez in 2022-23.If a trade of Arraez for a better asset who surpasses Arraez’s production, then it’s good to do it in 2021-22.. Then if the  new player improves the Twins  record to 85-90 wins! Then why not make the trade in 2022? I think there are a couple very good starting pitchers that have trade value equal to Arraez’s trade value on the market now and fill the hole between the starting rotation and the prospects on the farm and improve the Twins record by 5 to 12 wins next year. 

I am not sure the return will be significantly different for 4 years of Arraez versus 3.  Three years is still a long time to control a player.  The more pressing matter is what team needs a player like Arraez and what are they willing to give up.  The bottom 10 teams don't need him because they are already trying to turn over assets to rebuild their teams.  The top 10 teams don't need him because they already have someone better at the position.  It is risky to trade in the division so count out another 5 teams.  I think there are only two or three teams that might have a real need for him.

The other day we saw an article with Seattle trading for him but what would they really be willing to give up?  They need starting pitching as bad as the Twins so are not going to give any of that up.  They likely won't even give up their top pitching prospects who are close to ready because they need them.  I think it is going to be hard to find a way to line up with prospective buyers at least in the offseason unless they are willing to take prospects that are further away.

It seems to me the best chance to get value for Arraez would be at the deadline when injuries have hurt teams and they are looking for bats for the playoff run.  That seems like the better opportunity.  Still I think the Twins will be hard pressed to get close to ready pitching for Arraez.  They probably could get value going for younger highly valued pitching assets which carries much higher risk but also high upside.  They might be able to get a close to ready bat for Arraez but it likely depends on the team they are trading with.

IMO even if the Twins found a taker for Arraez I don't think they would trade for a starting pitcher on another team with a couple of years of control left.  Why do I think that?  Well they just traded one at the deadline in Berrios so I don't see them wanting to trade in the opposite direction losing years of control and adding salary with less years of control.  At least not at this time.

They have so many unknown's on the 40 man they need to unravel some of that to move forward IMO.  They have, Jordan Balazovic, Jhoan Duran, Cole Sands, Drew Strotman, Josh Winder, Jovani Moran and Chris Vallimont as young pitchers that have yet to pitch at the MLB level. They have Lewis Thorpe, Randy Dobnak, Jharel Cotton and Griffin Jax as players they need to decide to keep or move on from.  They have Nick Gordon, Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Gilberto Celestino, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker who have limited to no MLB playing time and no idea if they can play at that level.  That is 18 players on the 40 man that are unknowns at this point.  They need to figure out more knowns on both the pitching and position player side.  So I don't see them absolutely needing or wanting even more pitching prospects they need to add to the 40 man. 

I don't think they will be ready to make trades until they better know what they currently have.

A man currently without a position and you would like better alternatives if he were to play shortstop, first base,, left field or third base.

You have years, at best...but he might become to expensive for you in his arbitration climb.

Does he have his most return back to you now as a trade piece, especially if combined with another player?

And, if looking for a .300 hitter on a regular bases...isn't that why Buxton was signed?

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

• C Depth - Garver, Jeffers, Rortvedt
• 1B Depth - Kirilloff, Rooker, Sano, Larnach Donaldson, Garver
• 2B Depth - Polanco, Arraez, Gordon, Miranda
• 3B Depth - Donaldson, Miranda, Arraez
• SS Depth - ?, Gordon, Arraez, Palacios
• LF Depth - Rooker, Celestino, Larnach, Cave
• CF Depth - Buxton, Celestino, Cave
• RF Depth - Kepler, Celestino, Larnach, Cave
• DH Depth - Sano, Garver, Donaldson, Rooker

There's a lot of depth... and that doesn't take Martin into consideration who Falvey talked about potentially using as the starting shortstop in 2022. Arraez is a 2B, which is where Martin is expected to end up according to the scouting community. We have more than enough depth there. Trading a starting 2B caliber player who is blocked at a position like Arraez, if he brings in good value, puts both Arraez and the Twins in a better position on paper.

C - Actual depth here. Hopefully Jeffers develops more offensively but this looks like a solid group.

1B - Rooker doesn't have a ML bat or glove, Sano is gone after this year, Garver and Donaldson are both FAs after the following season and I'd guess neither are too keen on switching positions. That leaves Kirilloff (coming off a wrist injury) and Larnach (who has never played 1B professionally or in collegiately.) 

2B - Polanco is solid. Gordon hasn't shown he's even capable of handing a utility role. Miranda hasn't played a single inning for the Twins. If you're trading Arraez you don't also get to count him as depth. 

SS - Nobody. They literally don't have a SS for this season, plus there's a good chance Lewis and Martin don't fill in there either. 

LF - Touched on Rooker already. Cave has been abysmal for 2 seasons now. Larnach was a poor defender at the position in addition to his hitting struggles last season. Celestino wasn't ready. He's going to need to develop some sort of power if you're handing him a starting corner OF spot. 

CF - Buxton. They need a 4th OFer capable of playing CF. 

RF - Kepler is solid, the rest have been covered. 

DH - Can be used as overflow and/or a rotating door so I'm not going to worry about locking in a specific player. 

Maybe we need to define depth here. A body to plug in doesn't constitute a fail-safe in my view. There needs to be some level of skill floor involved before counting on players as actual depth. 

A few points to make: 1. Arraez is a really good mlb hitter; 2. Arraez is not a DH, SS, or LF by any stretch; 3. It is ok to have Arraez to back up Polanco, Donaldson, and Miranda; 4. Please, never compare anyone to Rod Carew; 5. Appreciate all attempts to fix the Twins.

16 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I posted before reading everyone's comments because I just wanted to say what I think before taking in what others think. bean has laid out the depth (although I don't like seeing Cave listed anywhere   Nice job bean)!!

Look, I don't think anyone wants to give Arraez (or anyone else for that matter) away for "just a guy."  

We can certainly trade Arraez because he honestly hasn't had THAT big of a positive effect on our offense.  Rocco refuses to put him at the top of the order consistently and in the lineup everyday.  And Arraez in LF is O.K. in spurts but not as your "starting" LF.

There WILL be injuries, but Miranda, Gordon, possibly Martin sooner than later are all capable options.  Especially Miranda. Some will field better, some will hit with more power.  Arraez is NOT a linchpin of our offense.  He's a great Contact Hitter/On Base Machine,  but he's not Buxton, Polanco, Donaldson, Sano (when he's swinging well).  I'll bet you my house mortgage Kiriloff has a greater offensive impact this season than Arraez.  It's tough to make an argument that missing the 7th, 8th or 9th best offensive player in your lineup is a death blow to your offense.  If you can add a solid MLG starting pitcher (which we currently literally have almost NONE) you trade a guy like Arraez.

I find it hard to agree with the concept that Rocco refusing to use a .300 and .350 OBP hitter in the proper spot in the lineup, if at all some days, as being a reason to rate the hitter lower.  If anything, it rates the manager lower.  And to say that Arraez is the 7th, 8th, or 9th, best offensive player in this lineup is bizarre to me.  Lastly, saying that 2 complete rookies and a guy who played half a season or so, not to mention Kiriloff only seeing a partial season, all rate higher than a proven player such as Arraez is a gamble you are clearly willing to take, but I wouldn't bet MY house mortgage on it. 

For the right pitcher he has to be considered, even in a package deal.  Otherwise, he plays ahead of virtually everyone you mentioned until they prove they are better, which is entirely possible, but not guaranteed. 

I love arraez but you totally blew credibility by comparing him to Rod Carew.  There is very little depth at this point.  That could change IF the young talent in minors progresses well.  To rely on several players with little or no major league experience with a non existent major league starting pitching staff could be a disaster.  I wonder how long it will take for people to complain about the team when they are out of contention by the end of the first month.  While a team littered with prospects could surprise and contend it is much more likely looking at a 90 loss season unless they add some veterans to a pitching staff that is currently minor league.

I like Arraez a lot, an old fashioned contact hitter who rarely strikes out. Having a surplus of good players at certain positions is a nice problem to have. But if a trade including Arraez can bring a proven young starter I think the FO should consider it. Gordon can serve as the utility player role with a lot more speed than Arraez. The team appears to have a lot of potential young starting pitchers who could make a ML roster. But their lack of proven pitching is the team’s biggest issue right now. 

Only way I trade Arraez is for a front line starting pitcher. I would pencil him in at 3B every day until he proves to me he can't play the position. I think with more playing time there he fills in rather well. maybe not great but keeping his bat in the lineup makes up for an error or lack of range occasionally. Donaldson slides to the full-time DH role. Both have knee issues and if one of them breaks down then I go to Miranda to cover for them. With that in mind, the Twins need to get a SS that can cover some ground and help fill the hole between SS and 3B. That too makes fielding easier for whoever they put at 3b. 

21 hours ago, bean5302 said:

• C Depth - Garver, Jeffers, Rortvedt
• 1B Depth - Kirilloff, Rooker, Sano, Larnach Donaldson, Garver
• 2B Depth - Polanco, Arraez, Gordon, Miranda
• 3B Depth - Donaldson, Miranda, Arraez
• SS Depth - ?, Gordon, Arraez, Palacios
• LF Depth - Rooker, Celestino, Larnach, Cave
• CF Depth - Buxton, Celestino, Cave
• RF Depth - Kepler, Celestino, Larnach, Cave
• DH Depth - Sano, Garver, Donaldson, Rooker

Now let's remove the guys who have NOT proven they are MLB hitters yet:

• C Depth - Garver, Jeffers,
• 1B Depth - Kirilloff, Sano, Donaldson, Garver
• 2B Depth - Polanco, Arraez
• 3B Depth - Donaldson, Arraez
• SS Depth - ?, Arraez
• LF Depth - 
• CF Depth - Buxton
• RF Depth - Kepler
• DH Depth - Sano, Garver, Donaldson

So, if Larnach hits, you need Arraez less. But proven depth? No.