Article: Official Trade Deadline Day Thread

[DaveW]

 

Name one of those guys that a team would say is a must have piece for them.  I think they are willing to wait and if they fall to them, they fall to them.  If not, no biggy.  Santana is the only one that a contending team might want as an upgrade over the backend of their rotation.

Suzuki would be a significant upgrade for several teams in "contention" either as a starter, part time starter or a backup.

Edited August 1, 2016 by DaveW

[clone52]

 

Suzuki wouldn't clear waivers, Abad or Kintzler wouldn't as well.

Santana would have some people claim him as well more than likely.

 

Suzuki, Abad and Kintzler would be claimed, but probably by someone that might actually want them, and thus a trade could be worked out.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well, there's a 2 WAR difference between them on B-R and B-R WAR usually passes the smell test better than fWAR. And FIP is the same argument we use to say Nolasco doesn't suck.

Sure, but the point of FIP and fWAR is to say, Stroman's peripherals are sound, and he doesn't have a long history of under-performing them like Nolasco (yet).  Combined with the fact that Stroman is throwing more innings than Santana, and the spot they'd be filling is likely the Jays 4th starter spot (behind Sanchez, Happ, and Estrada), and it's very hard for me to see that Santana is a "big upgrade" over him.

 

Also, Stroman's injury was not related to his pitching arm, so I wouldn't hold that against him, other to say that it gave him MLB service time without the additional MLB experience/evaluation.  He looks to be arb eligible this winter as a Super-2 unless they option him soon.

 

Still, I could see a package with Stroman as the centerpiece being a good return for Santana.  Santana's got the track record, but Stroman is controlled longer, cheaper, and 8 years younger, just entering his "prime" years -- it wouldn't take too much in additional prospects to make that a good trade.  If I had a big reservation, it's that I am not confident the Twins could help Stroman develop further, but that's hopefully a problem that will begin to get addressed soon.

 

Another way to look at it: how do you value Gibson vs Santana?  A number of posters have been saying they'd require a greater return to move Gibson than to move Santana right now.  Well, Stroman has been better than Gibson, is younger, has less mileage on his arm (and no TJ surgery yet), with less service time...

[alarp33]

Astros are said to be looking for Catching + Left Handed relievers.  

 

Suzuki + Abad to Houston for Albert Abreu + Derek Fisher?  I would do that in a heartbeat, would HOU?

[DaveW]

 

Astros are said to be looking for Catching + Left Handed relievers.  

 

Suzuki + Abad to Houston for Albert Abreu + Derek Fisher?  I would do that in a heartbeat, would HOU?

I doubt the Astros do that. You never know though.

[sthpstm]

 

Nobody is trading for Ricky Nolasco unless the Twins eat the salary. Main reason they will wait and hope he is DFA's by the Twins in August or September.

Agreed, but I don't think the Twins will/should DFA him. DFA Milone to make room for a young guy (Wheeler). I would consider making Nolasco my long guy for the rest of the year or just September to get a look at Mejia or someone else, but ensuring Nolasco he will get every opportunity to be back in the rotation in 2017 for his walk year.

I get it, Nolasco is not good, but you need depth in rotation, young guys are not guaranteed, and at this point in his not trade-able contract, why cut him now. See what he can do in his walk year.

[alarp33]

 

I doubt the Astros do that. You never know though.

 

Abreu seems like the perfect lottery ticket type they should be targeting for Abad.  

[DaveW]

 

Abreu seems like the perfect lottery ticket type they should be targeting for Abad.  

I would be all about it, I'm just not sure Abad could be enough to bring him back.

You never know though, I was surprised how much we got back for Nunez for instance.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Name one of those guys that a team would say is a must have piece for them.  I think they are willing to wait and if they fall to them, they fall to them.  If not, no biggy.  Santana is the only one that a contending team might want as an upgrade over the backend of their rotation.

 

I don't think the Twins will outright waive anyone other than Nolasco and Milone in an attempt to clear their salaries. The rest will be waived only if they find a trade partner or in a last ditch attempt to find one at the waiver deadline, and they would surely be claimed. Other teams might claim just to block the trade attempt. It's a risky move if a team really is set on getting a particular player.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Suzuki, Abad and Kintzler would be claimed, but probably by someone that might actually want them, and thus a trade could be worked out.

Actually, the fact that Suzuki, Abad, and Kintzler both offer relatively affordable control beyond 2016 hurts them in August waivers.  A team that's no longer in contention could reasonably claim them and have waiver priority, but they would have no urgency to immediately meet the Twins trade demands either.

 

Santana is a little bit better, as his salary would probably clear most non-contending teams, although once he falls to big spending contenders like the Dodgers or Blue Jays, they'd probably just rather take on his contract than give up good prospects.  The best scenario would probably be clearing, and then having the freedom to shop them later when a new need develops, although either way, you're not likely to get much in return.

[clone52]

 

Actually, the fact that Suzuki, Abad, and Kintzler both offer relatively affordable control beyond 2016 hurts them in August waivers.  A team that's no longer in contention could reasonably claim them and have waiver priority, but they would have no urgency to immediately meet the Twins trade demands either.

 

Santana is a little bit better, as his salary would probably clear most non-contending teams, although once he falls to big spending contenders like the Dodgers or Blue Jays, they'd probably just rather take on his contract than give up good prospects.  The best scenario would probably be clearing, and then having the freedom to shop them later when a new need develops, although either way, you're not likely to get much in return.

 

All are interesting ones.  If the Twins are done with Suzuki and just want to move on, they may let someone claim him and just let him go.

 

Teams might not have urgency for Abad or Kintzler, but since they both are relatively cheap next year, teams may claim them and actually want to trade them.  Considering people are thinking a Low Minors lottery ticket for either of them, that same sort of return could be had in August.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would be all about it, I'm just not sure Abad could be enough to bring him back.

You never know though, I was surprised how much we got back for Nunez for instance.

Dave, I think it was your post that first led me to believe we got a real top 100 prospect back for Nunez. Did you follow the later discussion on that?  Because he was #91 only on BA's midseason list, which excluded 2016 MLB graduates but didn't include new 2016 draftees or signings.  Mejia was the #5 Giants prospect on that list, a system, that preseason only ranked #19 by BA.  He wasn't on MLB's midseason top 100, he wasn't in Sickels preseason top 175 and might not make it this winter either -- I think he was a solid return for Nunez, but I don't think he was that surprising.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

All are interesting ones.  If the Twins are done with Suzuki and just want to move on, they may let someone claim him and just let him go.

The Twins aren't done with Suzuki to that extent, I am pretty sure of that.  Who exactly would replace him?

 

 

Teams might not have urgency for Abad or Kintzler, but since they both are relatively cheap next year, teams may claim them and actually want to trade them.  Considering people are thinking a Low Minors lottery ticket for either of them, that same sort of return could be had in August.

 

True, but the Twins won't necessarily be able to find the team that wants to trade for them in August -- they will be restricted to negotiating, for a 48 hour window, with the worst team that claims them.  Maybe the Padres want to trade a low minors lottery ticket for Abad or Kintzler in August?  Too bad, if one of Braves, Reds, Rays, or Diamondbacks wants to try claiming them for free, if only so they themselves can try flipping them to the Padres (or whomever) for that low minors lottery ticket after the season.

Edited August 1, 2016 by spycake

[tobi0040]

I predict one of Abad or Kintzler will move and 1-2 guys will effectively be sold in August.

 

Really no reason we shouldn't move Abad, Kintzler, and Kurt to the highest bidder, even if we think the bid is low. I will take a flier for each.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I predict one of Abad or Kintzler will move and 1-2 guys will effectively be sold in August.

Really no reason we shouldn't move Abad, Kintzler, and Kurt to the highest bidder, even if we think the bid is low. I will take a flier for each.

 

I'd want more for Suzuki personally.  I'd probably sell at the end of the day with the best offer, but flier is not what I'd be too interested in. Lucroy netted 4 prospects, one of which was top 100. Yes, he's a better option, but there's no reason why Kurt shouldn't have a nice return.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Really no reason we shouldn't move Abad, Kintzler, and Kurt to the highest bidder, even if we think the bid is low. I will take a flier for each.

I'm with you on the relievers, but I do wonder about Suzuki.  We really don't have an alternative right now. As crazy as it seemed a couple months ago, Suzuki at $6 mil doesn't sound bad for 2017.  (Maybe we could rent him to a team on the condition that they void the option, like Lucroy tried to negotiate )

 

Of course, either Texas or Cleveland should be desperate enough that we could still acquire something enough to make it worth our while.  But probably better than the "flier" that we'd deal those relievers for.

[nicksaviking]

 

Bundy would be at the top of my target list, but Baltimore really has no incentive to trade him. Especially for a guy like Santana IMO.

I'd do it in a heartbeat if they made him available though, I just don't see it happening. That would be like the Twins selling low on Buxton.

 

The O's already traded for a pitcher on a long term deal (Wade Miley) anyways.

 

I'm not sure of the intricacies of him singing a major league deal upon being drafted, but he's already out of options and it appears to me that he'll have four years of service time under his belt after this year. I would think that Bundy would only have two years left before becoming a free agent.

 

As much as I'd like him as a high ceiling guy, one would have to think the odds that Santana is healthy and productive the next two years is much, much greater than Bundy. I'd want a ton more than Bundy for Santana if both are free agents following the 2018 season. It's not like you're getting a guy who is controllable for a long period of time.

[kab21]

 

The Twins do have the advantage of not needing to trade him.  He's a good player - already worth 2 WAR this season - on a decent contract.  He shouldn't be a salary dump.  If they can't get a better package than Nunez', keep him.  They certainly shouldn't dump him for another team's pu-pu platter.

There is a difference between picking and choosing among a teams prospects and the pu-pu platter. Right now people are talking about pitching prospects that rank near the top of the other teams prospect list. That won't be the level of prospect that is returned.

 

Santana's WAR is meaningless as far as trade value.  Opposing teams aren't excited about 33 yr old pitchers with 2.5 yr contracts. Plus fangraphs WAR is based on FIP instead of xFIP. 

 

And I have said all along that the Twins might as well keep him since it is unlikely that they will get a decent prospect(s) for him.

[clone52]

 

The Twins aren't done with Suzuki to that extent, I am pretty sure of that.  Who exactly would replace him?

 

 

 

True, but the Twins won't necessarily be able to find the team that wants to trade for them in August -- they will be restricted to negotiating, for a 48 hour window, with the worst team that claims them.  Maybe the Padres want to trade a low minors lottery ticket for Abad or Kintzler in August?  Too bad, if one of Braves, Reds, Rays, or Diamondbacks wants to try claiming them for free, if only so they themselves can try flipping them to the Padres (or whomever) for that low minors lottery ticket after the season.

 

I do think Suzuki will be dealt today.  However, if the Twins know they won't re-sign him next year and want to get an extended look at Murphy or even Garver, they may just let whatever team claims him have him, or work out a trade for a PTBNL or cash.

 

I would rather trade Abad or Kintzler, but if they don't move them now, they will be put on waivers and they "might" be able to trade them in August.  No guarentee they can of course.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'm not sure of the intricacies of him singing a major league deal upon being drafted, but he's already out of options and it appears to me that he'll have four years of service time under his belt after this year. I would think that Bundy would only have two years left before becoming a free agent.

 

As much as I'd like him as a high ceiling guy, one would have to think the odds that Santana is healthy and productive the next two years is much, much greater than Bundy. I'd want a ton more than Bundy for Santana if both are free agents following the 2018 season. It's not like you're getting a guy who is controllable for a long period of time.

 

You're wrong on Bundy's service time.  But yes, I expect the price to be high. 

[gocgo]

 

I don't think the Twins will outright waive anyone other than Nolasco and Milone in an attempt to clear their salaries. The rest will be waived only if they find a trade partner or in a last ditch attempt to find one at the waiver deadline, and they would surely be claimed. Other teams might claim just to block the trade attempt. It's a risky move if a team really is set on getting a particular player.

Absolutely agree.  What I am saying is that I don't think any of the guys on our roster (other than maybe Santana) are guys that any team is "set on getting".  I don't think they  are viewed as integral parts to the future success of their team which is why I think they will wait until the waiver deadline to attempt a cheaper deal if it presents itself.  Keep in mind that the Twins have floated Mauer out on waivers just to see if he generated interest.  They will almost certainly float a pile of guys out there this year.

[Jham]

Apparently Bruce to the Mets and Puig possibly to White Sox according to Olney.

[Otto von Ballpark]

My Santana trade theory: any decent return in terms of players/prospects is probably worth dealing him, assuming the acquiring team is picking up the salary.  It not only frees up a spot for a younger pitcher right away, but it gives the Twins more time to try to reclaim some value from Nolasco and/or Milone who otherwise could/should be dropped for nothing soon.  Such a deal would also provide ample financial resources to finance a different MLB SP flier, if we prefer.  All of that should be considered as benefit from the deal, in addition to the actual players/prospects received in return (players/prospects who could also help support another trade, if we wanted to go that route).

 

But, my working assumption is that no team is willing to give up much in players/prospects as well as take on the whole salary, so I won't be surprised that he stays a Twin.

[gunnarthor]

Seems about right

 

Edited August 1, 2016 by gunnarthor

[Nick Nelson]

Per Jon Heyman, Twins sending Abad to Red Sox.

 

[Parker Hageman]

Jon Heyman is reporting the Twins and Red Sox have an agreement on Fernando Abad. 

 

[dxpavelka]

 

Suzuki, Abad, Kintzler.  There is no reason any of these 3 should be on the roster by tonight. 

 

Unless someone gives you an offer you can't refuse, I'm totally fine with the new GM making the Santana and Dozier trades this offseason

Unless nobody makes an offer worth taking for the first 3 guys.  You never know how that stuff goes.  A whole lot of fans spent the offseason whining about Ryan not trading for Lucroy, but guess what, he had us on his no trade list.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Well, two guys prior to Aug 1 non-waiver deadline... that's more action than what we've seen in ages...  Now let's clear Suzuki, Nolasco, Milone, and Kintzler...  and get a blow my socks off offer for Dozier.

[KirbyDome89]

I agree that the relievers should be sent packing for a flier, and I'm fine with Suzuki moving for the same type of return. Recently he has been good but he wasn't anything to cheer about last season and he was worse to start this season. No way do I want the team paying 6 million to trot him out there again next year. I think his hot streak leading into the break has inflated his value for some. He was a serviceable catcher while he was here but I can't imagine the Twins are trying to retain him at 6 million for next season, so IMO take what you can get for a guy you don't plan on keeping. 

[nicksaviking]

 

You're wrong on Bundy's service time.  But yes, I expect the price to be high. 

 

Out of curiosity do you have his service time numbers? My go-to for that stuff is BBR and it's not showing when he becomes a free agent likely due to the major league contract he signed when drafted.

 

My feelings on him would change if he's still controllable beyond 2018.