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What Do Twins Have In Santiago?


Ted Schwerzler

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Last season, the Minnesota Twins jettisoned Ricky Nolasco to the Los Angeles Angeles. The move was widely applauded as it purged Nolasco's contract from Minnesota and got him out of the rotation. What was overlooked however, was that former top prospect Alex Meyer was thrown in, and Hector Santiago was coming back to the Twins.

 

There's no kind way to put it, Nolasco was a disaster in Minnesota. Terry Ryan over-extended himself by spending on starting pitching that had almost no chance of paying off. In trading Nolasco to the Angels though, Minnesota simply took on a similar pitcher. Hector Santiago was awarded $8 million through arbitration, and the club is still paying the Angels $4 million of Nolasco's salary this season. Essentially they gave up Alex Meyer simply to get a team to take Nolasco off their hands.

 

Santiago came over to Minnesota in the midst of a hot streak, and there was some thought he could pitch right around the high water level he'd established. What ended up taking place however, was 11 starts to the tune of a 5.58 ERA and a 5.82 FIP. His strikeout numbers plummeted and he gave up 13 homers in those starts.

 

Although Santiago was an All Star in 2015, his recent career has always had reason for concern. In his All Star campaign, he gave up a league leading 29 homers, and then backed that up with 33 in 2016. He also surrendered a league leading (and career worst) 79 walks last season. For a guy that's never thrown over 182 innings, and owns a 4.84 FIP since 2014, he's got very few things going in his favor.

 

Since his 2011 debut with the White Sox, Santiago's velocity has fallen off as well. Topping out at a 93.8 mph fastball then, he's fallen to hovering right around 90 mph last season, and routinely sitting there is a stretch. His contact rate checked in at 81.8% last season, which was it's highest since 2014. If there's a level of consistency, it's found in Santiago's swing and miss stuff, which has routinely generated an 8% mark throughout his career.

 

The reality though, when looking at the sum of all parts, is that the Twins are going to be asking a lot from a guy they already have cemented into their rotation. There's real reason to believe that Santiago could be among the Twins worst pitchers this season. He serves up dingers at an alarming rate, his velocity has dipped, and his command has waned. He could be helped out by the boost that Jason Castro will serve over Kurt Suzuki, but he's going to need a significant jump.

 

If Santiago wasn't the Twins return for Nolasco, or frankly if he had a different name on the back of his jersey, you'd be able to make a real argument he'd struggle to make this club. Considering top prospect Jose Berrios has little to prove in the minors at this point, running him out there more consistently would provide more long term benefit.

 

As things stand. Paul Molitor and the Twins are going to be forced to choose between Trevor May, Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, Justin Haley, Ryan Vogelsong, and Nick Tepesch for one spot. There's absolutely some guys in that group that will be filtered out, but on numbers alone, there isn't a reason to suggest Santiago is better than the bulk of the group. Having to settle for him no matter what ties the hands of the Twins rotation a bit, and it was already not in a good place.

 

Maybe everything gets turned on its head, and Santiago's first full year in Minnesota allows him to acclimate and things go incredibly well. Looking at the numbers he's put up, and the way things have trended for him though, that's a pretty big ask. Hector Santiago is going to be in the Twins rotation, but he may just be another form of Ricky Nolasco.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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This article is cold but unfortunately is it accurate. Let's cut our losses and trade Santiago for...?  Oh, I see the problem. Do we just send him to AAA? Do we just release him? Can we give him back for Nolasco, and let them keep Meyer? It is a dilemma.

 

 

 

 

 

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This is a bad reflection on the new FO.  Santiago is no mystery and he is no salvation.  Getting him last year to get rid of Nolasco was smart.  Keeping him this year is not. 

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Even though Santiago's overall numbers look better than Nolasco the past couple of seasons, the trade was done, from the Twins perspective, to unload a poor performing player that didn't fit for a younger player, with better recent performance, who could help. The Angels made the move, primarily, to see if lightening would strike, in a good way, for Meyer. A return to previous form for Nolasco wouldn't stink either. In a lot of ways, it was about change of scenery for the guys involved to see what happens.

 

Santiago has, more or less, outperformed his peripherals. But even still, he does have a career 3.84 ERA and a 2-1 SO/BB ratio and has topped 180IP twice. He did finish last season looking much better than when he first arrived with the Twins. Frankly, while not good, he's not terrible either. All in all though, I hope his Twins tenure is short lived as it means we've found someone better to take his place.

 

And if you had told me someone like Vogelsong...even at 40...supposedly healthy and tread on the tires despite his age...would be brought jn, I may have stayed away from Santiago. But other than Santana and Gibson, the Twins entered ST with no-one else who's name you could write in the rotation with ink. Yes, absolutely yes, I want Berrios and May in the rotation and think it's time and they deserve the opportunity and I believe in both. But there are question marks with each, at least initially. And there remains huge questions regarding Hughes coming back, and when, and to what degree. So for now, Santiago is an OK option and a necessary one. Here's hoping he performs well and has trade value at some point.

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Terry Ryan over-extended himself by spending on starting pitching that had almost no chance of paying off.

 

That is so very well said.

Santiago is a mystery. After going 6-0 in July with a 1.33 WHIP (too high) and 8.7 SO/9 (very good) he was traded to the Twins and the change in scenery was terrible for him. He bounced back with good numbers in September, but his peripherals are not encouraging. His peripherals have never been encouraging.

 

Difficult to measure a guy who has almost always outperformed his peripherals. No idea what we have until he takes the mound. I find that a little unsettling.

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Tyler Duffey is also in the mix. And the topper is that the Red Wings rotation will be filled with guys that will probablyu never make the Twins (outside of Berrios) and how long will they block any advancement of guys from AA.

 

Of course, since Santiago was an arbitration salary, the Twins could still release him and just be on the bubble for 20%? Am I right, or wrong on that?

 

Combined with an uncertainity on Hughes, and Gibson needing to show something, the Twins rotation is still in shambles.

 

In some ways, I see the Twins trying to field a somewhat veteran team hoping for a fast start out of the gate and trading some of the vets either way and not fielding any prospects until they have convinced people to invest in various season ticket packages.

 

Rochester AND Chattanooga rosters are currently full, and there's still 15 guys to place somewhere on the 40-man roster!

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To answer the headline question: last year, only James Shields and Jared Weaver were lower-rated by fWAR among qualified pitchers. In 2015, he was third lowest, also. Those are the only years he threw enough innings to qualify. And his pitches aren't as good as they were in the years he was lucky.

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