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Joe Ryan's impact on the future


Luke Thompson

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The Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan trade should benefit the Twins for many years to come. This trade will give the Twins a quality pitcher for years, while only having to give up a 40-year-old Cruz whose career is on the decline. In return, the Twins acquired a player whose career is just getting started and will help the Twins compete for years to come.

Twins fans were sad to see fan-favorite, Nelson Cruz, get traded to Tampa Bay at the 2021 trade deadline. Cruz was a part of the 2019 Bomba Squad where he slashed .311/.392/.639 and hit 41 homers. He was a huge piece of the 101-61 first-place Twins. In 2020 Cruz slashed .303/.397.595 with 16 homers in 53 games and helped the Twins claim another first-place finish. During his time in Minnesota, Cruz finished 9th in MVP voting in 2019 and finished 6th in voting in 2020. In 2021 the Twins were struggling and at the time of the trade were sitting at 41-56. They decided there needed to be a change in the roster, so they flipped Nelson Cruz and Calvin Faucher in exchange for Joe Ryan and Drew Stroman. When Cruz got to Tampa he slashed .226/.238.442 with 13 homers. The Rays traded for Cruz to help them make a deep run in the playoffs and they ended up falling in the ALDS to the Red Sox. In free agency Cruz tested the market and signed a one year deal for $15 million with the Nationals. With them he slashed .234/.313/.337 with 10 Homers. Now Cruz signed a 1 year deal for $1 million with the Padres and with Cruz being 42, his career is going to come to a close soon. 

The prospects in the deal are minor pieces so I won't spend much time on them. The Rays acquired Calvin Faucher. At the time of the trade, Faucher had a 7.04 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 30⅔ innings for Double-A Wichita. He was selected in the 10th-round draft pick by the Twins in 2017.  Last year at the major league level he went 2-3 with an ERA of 5.48 in 21.1 IP. The player the Twins acquired was Drew Stroman. At the time of the trade, Strotman had a 3.39 ERA with 62 strikeouts in 58⅓ innings with the Durham Bulls. He was the Rays 17th-ranked prospect after being drafted in the fourth round in 2017. In 2022 the Twins DFA'd Strotman and he was later claimed off waivers by the Rangers. This offseason he signed a deal with the Giants.

Now let's talk about the major piece acquired for the Twins-Joe Ryan. At the time of the trade, Ryan was a 25-year-old who was about to pitch for Team USA in the Tokyo Olympics. He had a 3.63 ERA with 75 strikeouts in 57 innings for the Durham Bulls, the Rays AAA team. MLB.com put him in the No. 10 spot in Tampa Bay's system.. Ryan joined the Twins at the 2021 trade deadline and in that time he made five starts at the end of the season with 30 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings. Now the 26-year-old pitcher is coming off a very good season last year where he went 13-8 with a 3.55 ERA in 147 innings over 27 starts. He also impressed with His Hard Hit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and K%. They all ranked in the 63rd percentile or higher. Ryan also set the Twins’ single-season rookie record for strikeouts. Over his last 9 starts, Ryan was impressive and had a 2.81 ERA. There were some bumps in the road with Ryan last year such as how he allowed a .500+ SLG on every pitch but his fastball last season. He’s allowed an SLG% of .531 on his slider with a .368 expected SLG%. His .538 SLG% on his changeup is not a good number compared to his .443 expected SLG%. His curveball struggled last year with a .524 SLG compared to a .354 expected SLG. It is important to remember he is a fastball-reliant pitcher with him using it 60.1% of the time. With his fastball, he has allowed a .183 BA against and a .328 slugging %. With the Twins trading for Pablo Lopez, this year, I believe it will benefit Ryan as he doesn't have to focus on being the Twins front-end guy. He can build off of a good rookie season and help the Twins compete for years to come. It is important to remember that Ryan is just coming off his first full MLB season last year. He is young and still needs time to develop and reach his true potential. If he can improve his off speed numbers he could be a front-end starter for years to come. 

The Twins currently have team control of Ryan through the 2027 season. While Cruz was a fan favorite and it was sad to see him go, trading him sets the Twins up for success in the years to come.

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7 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I’m generally not shy about giving the FO a bit a heat on the TD from time to time.  But on the Ryan/Cruz trade they deserve accolades.  With Arraez gone, Ryan is now my favorite Twin - I’ll be tuning in for each of his starts this year for sure.

I agree it was one of the better trades in recent years.

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I like Ryan very much, pretty much coming to MN as MiLB player. That came & showed us that he's a true MLB SP. He has that great FB and he's working on his slider. He'll continue to work on his secondary pitches & maybe Lopez can show him how to throw his CU. Then we'll have another Johan Santana on our hands, we can only dream.

It's really great trading with teams like TB, MIA, LAD & CLE for SPs because they can afford to lose a trade & still come out ahead with so many great SPs coming up. This FO is great at selling at the deadline. I only wished they were more aggressive in their dealings with PIT,  Reds & OAK when they were motivated to sell off their top of the rotation pieces.

Although I've always loved the Ryan/ Cruz trade yet I really don't believe Cruz is washed up. The time Cruz left MN he was having eye problems. Also many players have floundered with the Twins, left & went onto to greatness. Yet there are other that had prospered here, left & floundered. I believe part of that is finding a key in different team that unlocks the untapped potential and also it's chemistry. A player that flounders after leaving MN isn't always because MN was lucky & got rid of a player at the right time. Sometimes it's because the chemistry isn't the same or a player had given their heart to MN & never recovered.

I felt the chemistry with Cruz, the day I heard he was coming here. His time here was magical to the time he left. I wouldn't look at the stats and then his age & come to the conclusion he's done. I'd look at the underlying conditions & see that his eye problem is solved and that he takes good care of himself, if he'd return to MN the magic would return.

Although I know that it'd  be great to see him break many of his records in a Twins uniform. I also know we have a plethora of candidates that'd benefit from having time at DH. I wish Cruz well at SD. Even if Cruz won't make it back as a player, I wish he'd make it back as a coach & bring back that magic. 

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The 2023 season will give everyone a real good idea of how valuable Joe Ryan can be as a starting pitcher. He was quite successful as a rookie, but he did struggle against the better lineups. Ryan was mostly very dependable. He can improve to become a #2/#3 guy or at the least (hopefully) remain a solid #4 pitcher. It is going to be interesting to see if Ryan can continue his dominance over weaker teams and improve in his outings versus the top offenses in baseball.

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52 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I like Ryan very much, pretty much coming to MN as MiLB player. That came & showed us that he's a true MLB SP. He has that great FB and he's working on his slider. He'll continue to work on his secondary pitches & maybe Lopez can show him how to throw his CU. Then we'll have another Johan Santana on our hands, we can only dream.

It's really great trading with teams like TB, MIA, LAD & CLE for SPs because they can afford to lose a trade & still come out ahead with so many great SPs coming up. This FO is great at selling at the deadline. I only wished they were more aggressive in their dealings with PIT,  Reds & OAK when they were motivated to sell off their top of the rotation pieces.

Although I've always loved the Ryan/ Cruz trade yet I really don't believe Cruz is washed up. The time Cruz left MN he was having eye problems. Also many players have floundered with the Twins, left & went onto to greatness. Yet there are other that had prospered here, left & floundered. I believe part of that is finding a key in different team that unlocks the untapped potential and also it's chemistry. A player that flounders after leaving MN isn't always because MN was lucky & got rid of a player at the right time. Sometimes it's because the chemistry isn't the same or a player had given their heart to MN & never recovered.

I felt the chemistry with Cruz, the day I heard he was coming here. His time here was magical to the time he left. I wouldn't look at the stats and then his age & come to the conclusion he's done. I'd look at the underlying conditions & see that his eye problem is solved and that he takes good care of himself, if he'd return to MN the magic would return.

Although I know that it'd  be great to see him break many of his records in a Twins uniform. I also know we have a plethora of candidates that'd benefit from having time at DH. I wish Cruz well at SD. Even if Cruz won't make it back as a player, I wish he'd make it back as a coach & bring back that magic. 

I loved Cruz I think he can still contribute at the MLB level. I just believe that he is not gonna be the 30 HR player he was with us. I think soon the age will became a bigger factor and the injuries will start to come.

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I recall the Cruz trade being more about getting a well-liked late-career guy a shot at the playoffs than his being washed up. 

Regardless, I like watching Ryan pitch. He works quickly, doesn't nibble a lot and gets results. He seems like a good guy and not wound too tight so his interviews are interesting and he comes across kind of relatable. It's easy rooting for a guy like that. 

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2 minutes ago, Cris E said:

I recall the Cruz trade being more about getting a well-liked late-career guy a shot at the playoffs than his being washed up. 

Regardless, I like watching Ryan pitch. He works quickly, doesn't nibble a lot and gets results. He seems like a good guy and not wound too tight so his interviews are interesting and he comes across kind of relatable. It's easy rooting for a guy like that. 

At the time it was but I'm explaining how it worked out for us. With Cruz having eye problems and aging it worked well for us to get a young player to help us for the future. I agree with your comment on Ryan I hope he can continue to improve and be a key player for the Twins.

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2 hours ago, Luke Thompson said:

I loved Cruz I think he can still contribute at the MLB level. I just believe that he is not gonna be the 30 HR player he was with us. I think soon the age will became a bigger factor and the injuries will start to come.

You could be right but I wouldn't limit Cruz, I believe he could still hit 30 HR if given a chance. But at SD or even here he'll only be a part time DH. One day injuries may come, Cruz will be the 1st to know his limitations & when to quit.

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There are not many pitchers who can be starters long term with only one quality pitch. He definitely needs to bring one of his secondary pitches up to a quality pitch level. I'm thinking that teams will start catching up to his fastball and he won't have another pitch to get by on. Right now I see him as a 4/5 starter with an upside of possibly a 3.

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In ‘22 it seems to me Ryan was typically facing the opponents #1. Maybe this changed up over the year due to various details?

Regardless of how he pitched against differing levels of talent, he won 13 games in his Rookie Year! If he settles in at #3 starter going forward, that’s great.

His ERA in ‘22 suggests he’s a #3, at a minimum, going forward.

’24 starting rotation:

Lopez - Ober - Ryan - Paddack - Varland…….at least 5 guys with potential!

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On 2/8/2023 at 7:11 AM, Luke Thompson said:

I agree it was one of the better trades in recent years.

Also agree. Sell high. Restock the farm system, particularly if you're not drafting very high. It's a solid recipe for success. I liked the Arraez trade for the same reason. 

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On 2/7/2023 at 10:47 PM, Adam Neisen said:

Joe Ryan could be a future ace 

He was 8 -0 with a .94 ERA agaisnt KC and Detroit, and 5-8 with a 4.80 ERA against everybody else. He could be a future ace but he must get better against teams that aren't running out an AAA lineup.

I hope and think he can but until he does, he will continually have to prove he deserves to be a starting pitcher.

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Even if Ryan's arm fell off tomorrow, the Twins did ok on this trade. Joe supplied a lot of innings last year for a team that was desperate for them. Nothing Cruz did would have helped the team more.  I agree with Dr Gast about him coming back some day as a coach.

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On 2/10/2023 at 4:00 PM, TwinsDr2021 said:

He was 8 -0 with a .94 ERA agaisnt KC and Detroit, and 5-8 with a 4.80 ERA against everybody else. He could be a future ace but he must get better against teams that aren't running out an AAA lineup.

I hope and think he can but until he does, he will continually have to prove he deserves to be a starting pitcher.

It's valid point that he needs to be more effective VS quality lineups. It should also be noted that in the 4.80 ERA VS the better teams is a 10 run meltdown VS the Padres. Just that one game makes his stats look a lot worse.

He also had 10 starts vs quality lineups where he surrendered 2 earned runs or less. Again, agree with your point, but he has shown the capability to produce vs quality opponents. Hope he continues to develop & deliver more quality outings VS everyone this season.

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On 2/11/2023 at 2:58 PM, Ricky Vaughn said:

Even if Ryan's arm fell off tomorrow, the Twins did ok on this trade. Joe supplied a lot of innings last year for a team that was desperate for them. Nothing Cruz did would have helped the team more.  I agree with Dr Gast about him coming back some day as a coach.

I agree, without Ryan last year the Twins would of been a much worse team then they were

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On 2/10/2023 at 4:00 PM, TwinsDr2021 said:

He was 8 -0 with a .94 ERA agaisnt KC and Detroit, and 5-8 with a 4.80 ERA against everybody else. He could be a future ace but he must get better against teams that aren't running out an AAA lineup.

I hope and think he can but until he does, he will continually have to prove he deserves to be a starting pitcher.

Lucky for us the Royals and Tigers are in our division so we know we can get good starts out of him in those games. I agree he has to keep improving on pitching better in games against playoff teams

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On 2/10/2023 at 1:00 PM, TwinsDr2021 said:

He was 8 -0 with a .94 ERA agaisnt KC and Detroit, and 5-8 with a 4.80 ERA against everybody else. He could be a future ace but he must get better against teams that aren't running out an AAA lineup.

I hope and think he can but until he does, he will continually have to prove he deserves to be a starting pitcher.

I think Varland has a lot more to prove. I have not seen enough of him to be confident about his spot in the rotation. 

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