I for 1 would think Mahle should go well over your IP. I think he is capable of 170+ innings, if allowed too.

What about Sonny?

1 hour ago, TiberTwins said:

What about Sonny?

I think Sonny Gray is pretty proven. If I had to make goals for him, it would be to have an ERA under 3.60 and to stay healthy.

5 hours ago, Karbo said:

I for 1 would think Mahle should go well over your IP. I think he is capable of 170+ innings, if allowed too.

Yeah, I just don't think health is a given with him. If he remains healthy, then certainly 170+.

Pitchers focus so much on health that it is their singular goal. If healthy, the pitchers will be good.

I would add Jorge Lopez to the list.  Since Rocco will not make Duran the teams "closer,"  instead choosing to use him in high leverage situations as needed, that means Jorge Lopez will be getting plenty of closing opportunities.  If he's "Jorge, the Baltimore Oriole" pitcher from the first half of last season he will have a much larger impact than Ober or Alcala (who are still good pitchers to list).  If he's "Jorge the second half of the season Twins pitcher"  we will have issues once again at the end of games.  He's a key member of our bullpen and MUST have a good season to provide stability and certainty in the back end.  

Another great blog, Harrison! I think just the fact that they'll have a normal ST will help a lot  in the # of total innings pitched & ERA. What I've heard Ryan & Lopez are working on new pitches (Central AL Division will also improve his #s). 

IMO what really helps against injuries, # of total innings pitched & ERA, is management. The focus shouldn't be let's see how far we stretch out our SPs. But let's profile our pitchers & pitch them inside those perimeters. Let's say for example we have a SP who profiles at 6 innings (some games early less & later games more). After each game he feels good & is able bounce back quickly for his next start. He is able to maintain his quality innings & health. He continue to feel good & is able starts 32 games, 32 X 6 = 192 innings, not bad. & hopefully if he's properly managed he's ready to pitch well going into the post season. Even if we have a pitcher going 5 innings/ game & feels good afterwards. He's able to maintain his arm healthy & pitch 32 games, that's 5 X 32 = 160 total innings that's much more than the total of our best pitcher under our present philosophy. Let me repeat one more time, our focus shouldn't be let's see how far we can stretch out of each SP each game but let keep our pitchers inside their profile to maintain their health & quality innings. Strength conditioning is also very important.

Lopez hadn't pitched many innings in any of his previous seasons. 111 was by far the most & he didn't pitch very well. So it's reasonable that he'd tired well before the season's end & tail off. With the 180 inning season under his belt & hopefully some good strength conditioning, he'll easily surpass last year.

Excellent analysis @Harrison Smith.  Thanks for pulling this together.

What are your expectations for Maeda given his long layoff due to injury?

19 hours ago, puckstopper1 said:

Excellent analysis @Harrison Smith.  Thanks for pulling this together.

What are your expectations for Maeda given his long layoff due to injury?

Maeda is a weird one for me. Obviously I would prioritize his health before any preformence. If he can stay healthy, he'll be a decent 4-5 guy at the least. I am not, however, expecting him to return to his 2020 form, although it wouldn't completely shock me. We have seen people like Justin Verlander come back even stronger from Tommy John, so I wouldn't rule him out to be a top of the rotation guy. 

So, expectations? 

1. Stay healthy. Pitch 150 innings 

2. Have an ERA under 4.20

I think that's all you can hope for from a player returning from that devestating injury. 

Thanks for your feedback!

2 hours ago, Harrison Smith said:

Maeda is a weird one for me. Obviously I would prioritize his health before any preformence. If he can stay healthy, he'll be a decent 4-5 guy at the least. I am not, however, expecting him to return to his 2020 form, although it wouldn't completely shock me. We have seen people like Justin Verlander come back even stronger from Tommy John, so I wouldn't rule him out to be a top of the rotation guy. 

So, expectations? 

1. Stay healthy. Pitch 150 innings 

2. Have an ERA under 4.20

I think that's all you can hope for from a player returning from that devestating injury. 

Thanks for your feedback!

A good exercise.

I think you're maybe a little high on the innings. In his five full seasons (i.e., not 2020), he's averaged 139 innings. Coming off TJS, I'll suggest 125 as a target. Maybe skip his spot in the rotation a time or two, and because of the surgery, he may have the shortest starts on average, so 25 starts x 5 innings feels about right. 

ERA is maybe a bit high. His career is 3.70 and his highest is 4.10. TJS guys often have days when they are not sharp, but it makes sense to try letting them pitch through some things. I think there will be many days when he's on his career average of 3.70, but throw in a few of the clunkers and it's maybe pushing 4.00. 

I'll take 125 innings of 4.00 or a little better from the No. 5 guy. 

Maeda's career numbers are low because he hasn't been allowed to start full time. In retrospect it was probably the right choice because when MN let him do it his arm fell off.

He'll get another chance to start here, but honestly he's not a big strong guy, he's had arm issues, and as much as he loves starting he's got real durability issues that make it a bad fit for him.  I'd pitch him in a swing role to get his strength up and let him start during the second half, but let him go next fall when he wants to make 30 starts with that body. Someone will sign him but it doesn't have to be us.

19 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

A good exercise.

I think you're maybe a little high on the innings. In his five full seasons (i.e., not 2020), he's averaged 139 innings. Coming off TJS, I'll suggest 125 as a target. Maybe skip his spot in the rotation a time or two, and because of the surgery, he may have the shortest starts on average, so 25 starts x 5 innings feels about right. 

ERA is maybe a bit high. His career is 3.70 and his highest is 4.10. TJS guys often have days when they are not sharp, but it makes sense to try letting them pitch through some things. I think there will be many days when he's on his career average of 3.70, but throw in a few of the clunkers and it's maybe pushing 4.00. 

I'll take 125 innings of 4.00 or a little better from the No. 5 guy. 

Why not just take a Bailey Ober for #5?

Mahle’s biggest problem is his approach & it creates his other problems. I live in Cincinnati & watching him drive me nuts! He gets ahead routinely has just above average stuff - and then nibbles his way into 4&5 walks per 6 inning start. He walks guys gets into jams & then his pitch count is at 88 at the end of 4 innings. Seldom gets through the 6th unscathed! His goals should be 160 innings & ERA under 3.80 …….could be lower but he needs to start pitching to contact more to gets his walks down & innings up. 13  wins!

Ryan’s goals (under 3.00 ERA??) should align with his middle of staff stuff……..160 innings & 3.50 or under ERA. 15 wins! That’s a good year.

Sonny Gray goals should be 150 innings & sub 3.40 ERA. 13 Wins!

Duran & Jax, more of the same from ‘22…..

Maeda had his arm rebuilt - should actually be stronger now. Hoping for a goal of 125 innings from the Pen early & then 5th starter. ERA of 3.75 or better. Would really like to see him dominate from the Pen all year throwing twice a week but sounds like his contract screws him if he relents to the Pen. Seems FO could solve for betterment of Team!

Ober - under 4.00 ERA & 125 innings would work.

Lopez - 3.75 ERA & 175 innings with 12 Wins! Good year no matter where he’s slotted in rotation.

900 plus innings from 6 starters…….probably will get Varland & SWR to pick up another 80 innings……that’s a thousand innings out of probable 1460. Good starter to Pen ratio.

Lopez - Gray - Ryan - Mahle - Ober/Maeda

Ryan & Mahle get to face other starters that probably don’t match up as well & have a better shot at more W’s as starters. Whoever goes #3 & #4 will have this advantage.

Ryan with an ERA under 3?  That is a little aggressive for him!  I guess they can all have a goal of an ERA under 3.  Heck......the goal for them all is an ERA under 2!     :)

Seems the Author’s goals for Ryan seem to be most lofty - difficult to attain. I responded previously with an innings expectation of 160 innings 5.7 innings X 28 starts……assuming they skip 2-3 starts somehow if he’s got perfect health.

The ERA of under 3.00 is what I don’t understand as a goal? He’d have to seldom - almost never - give up more than 2 runs per start. To me, unrealistic. He was our #1 last year as a Rookie and slotted there due to lack of other choices. All year, baseball people called him an actual #3-#4 starter. No reason to set such high expectations.

My math is 46 earned runs for the regular season……..160 innings pitched (160/46 = 3.48ERA)…………46 earned runs/28 starts = 1.64 Earned Runs per start. That’s a plenty high expectation for a 2nd year guy.

On 2/2/2023 at 7:45 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

I would add Jorge Lopez to the list.  Since Rocco will not make Duran the teams "closer,"  instead choosing to use him in high leverage situations as needed, that means Jorge Lopez will be getting plenty of closing opportunities.  If he's "Jorge, the Baltimore Oriole" pitcher from the first half of last season he will have a much larger impact than Ober or Alcala (who are still good pitchers to list).  If he's "Jorge the second half of the season Twins pitcher"  we will have issues once again at the end of games.  He's a key member of our bullpen and MUST have a good season to provide stability and certainty in the back end.  

J. Lopez only real career success is April - June of ‘22. He spent 4-5 years prior as a struggling starter………started to decline in Baltimore in July’22……even at the hands of the Twins. Came over after having been an All-Star and wasn’t very good at all.

He can’t be our answer for success!

Duran was used situationally last year because we had guys prior to the 9th messing up leads (Pagán - Smith - López - Duffey) so Baldelli was trying to piece something together. Also, not a very traditional move to make a Rookie, that hadn’t been a reliever, and making him your closer!

3 hours ago, miracleb said:

Ryan with an ERA under 3?  That is a little aggressive for him!  I guess they can all have a goal of an ERA under 3.  Heck......the goal for them all is an ERA under 2!     :)

If you remember Ryan's two starts on the west coast, once in LA and once in SD, he didn't do very hot. He gave up 10 runs in SD and didn't do much better in LA. If you take away those two starts, he has an ERA under 3, so I do think it is possible. 

I was just looking at ESPN's ranking of MLB rotations projecting for the coming year. Twins are at 16, but described as being solid and a group "you can win with", though - spoiler alert - lacking an ace. Sounds reasonable to me. (The White Sox were #7, and the Guardians #20 in the ranking.)

6 hours ago, Harrison Smith said:

If you remember Ryan's two starts on the west coast, once in LA and once in SD, he didn't do very hot. He gave up 10 runs in SD and didn't do much better in LA. If you take away those two starts, he has an ERA under 3, so I do think it is possible. 

He doesn’t get to pitch against Detroit & KC as often as last year……..good success against them! Although, he will be, the whole staff will be, facing teams that haven’t seen him……should be advantage pitcher! Advantage particularly since most of the National League teams will only see him once the entire year.

Again, if you average his innings per start at 5.7 and give him 28 starts……..the bar is an average of 1.64 runs per 5.7 inning start. Those are lofty expectations!

Hope he puts up a bunch of Zeros!

I like Ryan but don’t see him as a number one starter. I do think he can win 15 games with a good team. As with all Twins starters they will never acquire 180 innings with Baldelli as the manager, following order from the front office wrapped up in analytics. No manager intuition required.

A good and appreciated exercise. And I couldn't care about pre-season rankings from anyone, though they do provide opportunity for discussion. TIRED and EXHAUSTED commentary, but health remains an issue.

Gray remains a high quality pitcher. He's never been a stalwart, but his injuries last year were primarily hamstring issues. Does a normal offseason and ST allow him to start 28-32 games? If so, he's about as good as you can get without a bona-fide #1 ACE.

IF all medical reports about Mahle are correct, and he really just had a tired arm after the weird offseason and abbreviated ST and trying to throw too much are accurate, he just might be the Twins #1 and worthy of an extension. He's talented enough, young enough, and removed from Cincinnati's park he could be that guy.

I don't know what to expect from Maeda. But he's never been about velocity. He's always been about control and deception. Not sure how many remember how great he looked in ST 2021 while adding a 6th pitch to his repertoire. Reports were that his control at the end of 2022 was surprisingly good. The Twins decided to not pitch him in a lost cause so late in the season, but to get him ready for 2023. His IP may be regulated. But I sure wouldn't bet against him being a solid rotation piece.

Why does everyone want Ryan to be an ACE/#1 starter? He was a rookie in 2022. He had a great debut and a good rookie season in 2022, with a natural learning curve, and a covid issue that interrupted his season. He will probably learn, grow, and be even better. But insisting he might be a #1 is wishful thinking. It COULD happen, as #1's HAPPEN here and there, but it takes time. I'm fine with him as a really good SP and waiting to see what happens. 

Lopez has tremendous numbers overall, but never started more than 21 games until last year. And then he faded some the last half of the year. But the STUFF says at least solid, if not better. 

The Twins didn't trade for the under 30yo Mahle and Lopez, both with potential, to ONLY have them for 2yrs. Either, or both, will be extension candidates. 

A healthy Ober might be as good or better than anyone in the current rotation. Past injuries and an option is the only reason he might be on the outside looking in. Despite limited IP in 2021 for obvious reasons, he was not only good, but got better. His limited 2022 was impressive. Don't sleep on him for even a minute.

Bullpen, Jax should only get better with experience.  Ditto for Duran, though I'm not sure else what he can do but be human some days. Lopez is not going to be as outstanding as he was before the trade, but is not as average as he was post trade. He's going to be fine. Alcala is a bit of a mystery. He finished 2021 in outstanding fashion. IIRC he tightened a few things up but also worked hard on his 3rd offering. He started 2022 well before injury. If he's 100%, he could be a difference maker.

But there are a number of rotation and BP arms at the ready. Not sure I've seen this much depth in a long time. I'm not sure all of the projections in the OP will turn out, though they aren't illogical or beyond possibilities. But it sure is nice to see these possibilities and the depth available. 

On 2/7/2023 at 2:33 PM, Harrison Smith said:

If you remember Ryan's two starts on the west coast, once in LA and once in SD, he didn't do very hot. He gave up 10 runs in SD and didn't do much better in LA. If you take away those two starts, he has an ERA under 3, so I do think it is possible. 

I'm with you on Ryan,

I think under 3.00 is the goal.  

I'm on record as saying he has the mentality to be a #1.

This list and set of goals are encouraging.  Had this exercise been done two or three years ago it would have been putrid.  I am liking what I see of our pitching staff and expectations.

On 2/7/2023 at 3:16 PM, Minfidel said:

I was just looking at ESPN's ranking of MLB rotations projecting for the coming year. Twins are at 16, but described as being solid and a group "you can win with", though - spoiler alert - lacking an ace. Sounds reasonable to me. (The White Sox were #7, and the Guardians #20 in the ranking.)

This blew me away and if you had asked me I would have thought that the Guardians would have a higher ranking than the Twins.

Love this concept! I think the goals are pretty realistic. I'm thinking Ryan even as a middle of the rotation guy is a very good spot for him. I think Mahle can clear that IP mark, as long as health is on his side. 

I'd love to collaborate further and do one for the whole pitching staff, or maybe even do one for hitters too!? Let me know! 

Another factor with the pitching - in case anyone has forgotten - the Twins had their pitching coach leave halfway through the '22 season.  That had to have at least some impact.  I think a lot of onlookers were surprised when Pete Maki was retained as the full-time pitching coach for '23.  So now we get to see what the staff does under Maki for a full season.  Someday I hope we find out the full story behind Wes Johnson's departure.  that whole deal still seems weird to me.