Great read, Mike, thanks!

As you know, I have been a huge fan of Rosario since he was at Elizabethton however many years ago. 

Will be interesting to see what the Twins do. Have a feeling they may not think they have only two options, release him or go to arbitration. With all the unknowns in the World, they may just sit down and do a one or two year deal that both sides can live with.

The biggest question I have from your numbers is Kepler's D. I refuse to believe that he is negative defensively. Maybe he took a hit in 2019 when he played much of the season with various injuries because most of the others outfielders weren't available. 

Very much enjoy this Mike. I have always held the opinion that Rosario isn't a bad player, the Twins just have a lot of players that can replace him when it comes to most numbers. 

At this point, the thing that may set Kepler and Sano apart from Rosario as far as how they will treated going forward is the contract situation. Although, in this offseason's market I also wouldn't be shocked if either of those two become trade assets likely changing the keep or let walk conversation with Rosario. 

As a fan, my internal struggle is I very much enjoy watching both Rosario and Cave. Eventually it will likely become difficult for both to exist on the roster with the young guys coming up behind them! 

 With all the unknowns in the World, they may just sit down and do a one or two year deal that both sides can live with.

 

 

That has been my hope. But we`ll have to wait & see

Great read, Mike, thanks!

 

As you know, I have been a huge fan of Rosario since he was at Elizabethton however many years ago. 

 

Will be interesting to see what the Twins do. Have a feeling they may not think they have only two options, release him or go to arbitration. With all the unknowns in the World, they may just sit down and do a one or two year deal that both sides can live with.

 

The biggest question I have from your numbers is Kepler's D. I refuse to believe that he is negative defensively. Maybe he took a hit in 2019 when he played much of the season with various injuries because most of the others outfielders weren't available. 

I was surprised too

Count me as an Eddie fan. Good job with the comparisons here and keeping it simple too. I would guess that a detailed look from every possible angle would return similar rankings. The one item that jumps out is games played. Rosario is almost always available. I have nothing to back this up but he seems to play through injuries better than others, and i am not advocating for playing while injured at all. Sometimes Eddie played when the other options didn't exist. I am wondering, like everyone else, how the team will handle roster decisions this winter. It does seem like one spot should be available for the youth, but any number of shifts can take place from trades to inability to resign Cruz. Eddie Rosario is an exciting ballplayer and I would love to see him rake again next summer.

Adding on to the comparisons:

Playoffs:

Rosario 6 games, .217/.250/.522 (.772 OPS)
Buxton 3 games, .167/.167/.167 (.333 OPS)
Sano 5 games, .105/.150/.263 (.413 OPS)
Kepler 6 games, .056/.320/.375 (.431 OPS)

Yuck. And Eddie's is with 0/7 vs the Astros!

I'm not all aboard the Rosario train, but he's certainly not a bad player. He should be a 1.5-3 WAR player again in 2021. I wouldn't give him a multi-year extension, but I wouldn't hate it if he was tendered. I would like to get him back if we lose Cruz, but I'm also comfortable with the future of the LF spot with Kiriloff and Larnach close to being ready.

I love watching Eddie Rosario play baseball!!

That said, Kepler and Sano agreed to the Twins long-term deals so they don't have to go year to year with them. Rosario was offered similar deals at those times (I don't know which offseason or what the offers were, of course). He chose to go year-to-year and this becomes the downside of that... though he could become a free agent in a couple of weeks and maybe end up with a long-term deal from somewhere. 

And Buxton has another year beyond 2021 of arbitration. If 2021 doesn't go well for Buxton, there may be a tough decision on him a year from now. 

Mike, tremendous post! And really, despite endless OP's before on the front page, I'd like to see this one moved there.

I LOVE Eddie, even though he has made me pull my hair out many times or made me take an extra sip or two from my beverage of choice at times. I absolutely think he is a better player than given credit for at times. Like you, I've always chafed when some argue his RBI production and dismiss it as being in a good lineup and in a good spot. You still have to produce, right? And Eddie has, no doubt!

The problem is, with all due respect and love for Eddie, is there someone knocking on the door who could do it as well or better who is younger and cheaper?

We can compare Eddie and Max all day. Max is better defensively overall, younger, might have a higher ceiling, and might be better and more productive than he has been lower in the order instead of hitting #1. Also, it's really, really hard to look at the potential of Kirilloff, maybe Larnach, and NOT see better overall hitters who might not have the same "flair" but who are better overall "hitters". Power is awesome. Production is most important. Defense is really nice. But sometimes a younger player has as much or more ability to do all of that and maybe more.

We can't lose Eddie and Cruz in the same year. But we have, I think, at least one ready replacement for Eddie. And I think we are going to be very OK with our #1 option there. We might even be better, overall, very soon.

Kirilloff is going to be a stud!

Great article Mike !  Still, I haven't changed my mind.  Gotta keep Buxton because he's our CF'er.  Kepler doesn't have the overall success with the bat that Eddie has, but he's a better overall player in my mind.  I've been banging the drum all off-season and will continue throughout the winter   It's time to TRADE Sano !!   

We have Kiriloff and Rooker who are ready and frankly will be more "consistent" offensive threats than Sano.  They will have consistently "better" at bats.

Eddie is the odd man out.  With Kiriloff, Rooker and Larnach he is not cost effective.  The Twins need to use the money saved from moving on from Sano and Rosario on other areas.  For Sano, Colorado and Miami would be a couple of GM's I'd be calling.  For Eddie, it's time to just let him go.  That doesn't mean we can't cheer him on while he plays for another team.  

However, the Twins cannot move on from Sano and Eddie AND fail to bring back Nellie Cruz.  They need Cruz in that lineup more than ever before.  If they have the courage to move on from Sano and Eddie, I think they will find a way to bring Nellie back.   

Great article Mike !  Still, I haven't changed my mind.  Gotta keep Buxton because he's our CF'er.  Kepler doesn't have the overall success with the bat that Eddie has, but he's a better overall player in my mind.  I've been banging the drum all off-season and will continue throughout the winter   It's time to TRADE Sano !!   

 

We have Kiriloff and Rooker who are ready and frankly will be more "consistent" offensive threats than Sano.  They will have consistently "better" at bats.

 

Eddie is the odd man out.  With Kiriloff, Rooker and Larnach he is not cost effective.  The Twins need to use the money saved from moving on from Sano and Rosario on other areas.  For Sano, Colorado and Miami would be a couple of GM's I'd be calling.  For Eddie, it's time to just let him go.  That doesn't mean we can't cheer him on while he plays for another team.  

 

However, the Twins cannot move on from Sano and Eddie AND fail to bring back Nellie Cruz.  They need Cruz in that lineup more than ever before.  If they have the courage to move on from Sano and Eddie, I think they will find a way to bring Nellie back.   

I read your report and it makes sense, but it makes me sad

 A very good read that presents some very intriguing perspectives.   I'm an Eddie Rosario fan, always have been, I would like to see the Twins sign him to a 1 year deal.   He's on the field so much more than any other Twins outfielder and he has been consistently productive.   I too have patches of hair that I've pulled out in frustration over his base-running miscues and errant throws when he missed the cutoff.  Overall, I like his passion for the game and the way he produces.

Eddie has been a great player for the Twins. It's just time to move on -- more because of contract and depth than anything else. To be cliche, it's a business.

I'd rather not see him non-tendered, because I feel like that's a slight to his skill. But I won't be heartbroken if it happens either.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Even after 4-5 years in the majors, players take different trajectories in their career. I have seen analysis that Eddie will not age well, I certainly don't know if that is true. It seems that being healthy in 2020, he was able to improve his overall stat line from 2019 and not many Twins were able to say that. 

Rosario is a free agent after this year and he plays a position where the Twins have many of their best prospects on the cusp of playing for the big team. The other three players won't be free agents until later and Buxton plays a key defensive position. Kepler and Sanó both are under contract with cost certainty. 

Eddie has been a great player for the Twins. It's just time to move on -- more because of contract and depth than anything else. To be cliche, it's a business.

 

I'd rather not see him non-tendered, because I feel like that's a slight to his skill. But I won't be heartbroken if it happens either.

If he is non-tendered I would find the FO at fault for not getting some value from him.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Even after 4-5 years in the majors, players take different trajectories in their career. I have seen analysis that Eddie will not age well, I certainly don't know if that is true. It seems that being healthy in 2020, he was able to improve his overall stat line from 2019 and not many Twins were able to say that. 

 

Rosario is a free agent after this year and he plays a position where the Twins have many of their best prospects on the cusp of playing for the big team. The other three players won't be free agents until later and Buxton plays a key defensive position. Kepler and Sanó both are under contract with cost certainty. 

I wonder what they use to judge players ability to age.  I no of no metrics that are trustworthy on that judgment.  Eddie is the one who plays, his health seems like less concern than Max, Byron and Miguel.

Nice article on a central issue for the Twins off-season / progress. It seems Sano or Kepler are the most valuable trade pieces with the most obvious replacements in-house.

Their contract status enhances their value - couple the return of assets they could bring with the likely production levels of Kirilloff, Larnach and/or Rooker in their place and a viable trade strategy emerges that enhances the roster.

Is Rosario too expensive? That seems to be the question. Can he be too expensive with a 2-3 year deal at this point, too?

Three of the four mentioned haven't really lived up to their potential.

Sano is always the elephant in the room. Do you look for a better third baseman? Do you look for a better first baseman? Is he the designated hitter the Twins need for life? Do we still shudder at the ghost of David Ortiz and fear a departing Sano will be the second coming of such a ghost. He is considre3d cheap for the current longer haul. And the ultimate, what is his worth to someone else at this point.

Buxton just can't stay healthy. Jeez. What a thing to be tagged with. We have seen Hunter leave. A run thru names like Span and Gomez and Revere and Hicks, most all have produced at times better than Byron. What is Byron besides a ground traveller? Does he have bigger power? Will he ever be a base stealing threat? He can go from first to home faster than anyone. The Twins managed to get that extra year, as well as cheaper hearings because of on field time. From just being in the line-up and playing a lesser field, Rosario has more worth, it seems.

Kepler. Man. I hated the fact that he batted leadoff in 2019 and moreso in 2020. I don't think he is a leadoff hitter, and is best placed in the lower portion of the order. He is mighty cheap, and IF he shines will have better trade value. Right now, he is more valuable to the Twins.

The question is where do you put Krilloff, Larnach, Rooker (and to a lesser extent names like Baddoo, Wallner, Celestino, Maciel - all of whom would probably be on par with any of our current guys in years to come). Throw in the mix the need to looks at Urbina or Soularie in the next 3-4 years. Plus, Royce Lewis could be an outfielder instead of an infielder.

Truth be told, I would take an option on getting Rosario signed for a team friendly 3-year-deal and move from there. I would entertain any offers for Sano or Kepler and even Buxton. Moreso hoping the value of all four of these guys will sky in 2021 and you can comfortably work in Kirilloff and Rooker with an open DH position (sorry Cruz) and Larnach later in the season, and still not hurt yourself offensively.

I hate the though of getting nothing for Eddie and just letting him walk. That's what we did with Ortiz - not that Eddie is Big Papi. 

The Twins have been lucky offensively that the team does play as a good team on the field and overall in the batting order. 2021 showed that there are weaknesses in these guys and no one, including Polanco and Arraez and Garver, are set for the longterm, but still offer team play - which is most important. No superstars, including these big four that promised so much.

Is Rosario too expensive? That seems to be the question. Can he be too expensive with a 2-3 year deal at this point, too?

 

Three of the four mentioned haven't really lived up to their potential.

 

Sano is always the elephant in the room. Do you look for a better third baseman? Do you look for a better first baseman? Is he the designated hitter the Twins need for life? Do we still shudder at the ghost of David Ortiz and fear a departing Sano will be the second coming of such a ghost. He is considre3d cheap for the current longer haul. And the ultimate, what is his worth to someone else at this point.

 

Buxton just can't stay healthy. Jeez. What a thing to be tagged with. We have seen Hunter leave. A run thru names like Span and Gomez and Revere and Hicks, most all have produced at times better than Byron. What is Byron besides a ground traveller? Does he have bigger power? Will he ever be a base stealing threat? He can go from first to home faster than anyone. The Twins managed to get that extra year, as well as cheaper hearings because of on field time. From just being in the line-up and playing a lesser field, Rosario has more worth, it seems.

 

Kepler. Man. I hated the fact that he batted leadoff in 2019 and moreso in 2020. I don't think he is a leadoff hitter, and is best placed in the lower portion of the order. He is mighty cheap, and IF he shines will have better trade value. Right now, he is more valuable to the Twins.

 

The question is where do you put Krilloff, Larnach, Rooker (and to a lesser extent names like Baddoo, Wallner, Celestino, Maciel - all of whom would probably be on par with any of our current guys in years to come). Throw in the mix the need to looks at Urbina or Soularie in the next 3-4 years. Plus, Royce Lewis could be an outfielder instead of an infielder.

 

Truth be told, I would take an option on getting Rosario signed for a team friendly 3-year-deal and move from there. I would entertain any offers for Sano or Kepler and even Buxton. Moreso hoping the value of all four of these guys will sky in 2021 and you can comfortably work in Kirilloff and Rooker with an open DH position (sorry Cruz) and Larnach later in the season, and still not hurt yourself offensively.

 

I hate the though of getting nothing for Eddie and just letting him walk. That's what we did with Ortiz - not that Eddie is Big Papi. 

 

The Twins have been lucky offensively that the team does play as a good team on the field and overall in the batting order. 2021 showed that there are weaknesses in these guys and no one, including Polanco and Arraez and Garver, are set for the longterm, but still offer team play - which is most important. No superstars, including these big four that promised so much.

Wonderful post.  Full of great takes - one thing stuck out - Ortiz.  What if Eddie was a DH and we did not talk fielding?  Would he be a star?

We are looking for a shoehorn. Cruz, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Rooker, Kirilloff, and Larnach. Cave is a viable OF too. The Twins have five positions to allocate, a budget to consider, and two players too many. The idea of stashing Rooker, Kirilloff, and Larnach in the minor leagues no longer seems like a structurally sound plan. While only the Twins internal talent evaluations count, we have seen both Rooker and Kirilloff swing a bat already and Larnach is not a secret. Eddie Rosario has been a clear contributor for the Twins and I have not seen any dramatic changes to his talent. A three year offer to Eddie is a path forward for the Twins, as is a consideration of using him more often as a DH. This will be a tough winter for Falvine as they work through all of the roster possibilities. No matter what direction the team goes, we will miss the two players left standing when the music stops and the chairs are claimed.

We are looking for a shoehorn. Cruz, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Rooker, Kirilloff, and Larnach. Cave is a viable OF too. The Twins have five positions to allocate, a budget to consider, and two players too many. The idea of stashing Rooker, Kirilloff, and Larnach in the minor leagues no longer seems like a structurally sound plan. While only the Twins internal talent evaluations count, we have seen both Rooker and Kirilloff swing a bat already and Larnach is not a secret. Eddie Rosario has been a clear contributor for the Twins and I have not seen any dramatic changes to his talent. A three year offer to Eddie is a path forward for the Twins, as is a consideration of using him more often as a DH. This will be a tough winter for Falvine as they work through all of the roster possibilities. No matter what direction the team goes, we will miss the two players left standing when the music stops and the chairs are claimed.

I do agree about the young talent - they are going to be restless and dissappointed in they are back in whatever is the minor leagues this year. 

I do agree about the young talent - they are going to be restless and disappointed if they are back in whatever is the minor leagues this year. 

My thoughts exactly. I put my crazy ideas in the Offseason Live Replay: Twins Offseason Blueprints comments section. Despite having Rosario lined up fourth on the list of Eddie or Miguel or Byron or Max, I kept Eddie Rosario.