snap4birds

I think the biggest key for the Cardinals was drafting Albert Pujols in the 13th round. They surrounded him with decent homegrown talent and traded for most of the rest of their all-star type talent (Rolen, Edmonds, Wainwright). Carpenter was a FA who sat out his first year with an injury, I think. I guess that Molina guy was a nice draft pick, too. But Pujols was definitely the tent pole or unicorn or whatever they're calling it nowadays. If Buxton or Sano becomes that kind of player, then the Twins will need to open the pocketbook a little more and/or trade some of their prospects. I always thought Sano had the better chance at that, but Buxton has actually out-WARed him so far (7.2 to 5.4 per baseball-reference) in about 350 fewer at-bats.

Just saw a tidbit here about Reed http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/ben-frederickson/questions-benfred-on-stl-sports/collection_4882833c-1aef-5fd1-995a-1bef5729a101.html Speculation that many teams had reservations about Addison Reed's workload the last couple years. I haven't really paid much attention, but the article stated he seemed close to signing with 'multiple' teams, only to have the deals fall through.

Another thread mentions how many Twins prospects are rated B- or better by Sickels. I don't remember the exact number (21?), but it might be the perfect time for the Twins to cash in some quantity for quality. They lost 2 prospects in Rule 5 this year, that might be a recurring event if the system is truly that deep.

They are Designated For Assignment. As Tom Froemming noted, the Braves & Brewers did this in the past week. They then have 10 days to open up a new spot on the roster and return them to the roster. Or they can put them on waivers, trade, release or outright them to the minors. Here is a good description of the possibilities https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Designated_for_assignment

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present your South Dakota Twins, starring Yu Darvish! Maybe set up a rotation where he only pitches home games, or in other states that have low income taxes..... I think this is a fairly new phenomenon, prior to maybe 10 years ago pro athletes just paid their income tax where they played. Now it has to be pretty complicated. If a pitcher never faces the Tigers, does he not have to file in Michigan, or does he have to prorate his earnings out to the percentage of games his team played against the Tigers?

I thought the deal was that the Astros had an agreement with Aiken for less than slot, they were going to use the extra money for Nix. But when Aiken's physical came back, they weren't willing to pay as much as agreed upon and they then didn't have any extra money for Nix. So if they wanted Nix, they essentially were paying for him and a damaged Aiken. Pretty sticky situation all around....

Interesting side note to that no-hitter. Somewhere in that game, a Cardinal hit a fly down the line that was called foul. Replay showed it was fair, and it would have ended the no-hit bid (TV replay, not an official MLB review, this was before replay was allowed to overturn calls). Johan would have been pulled around 100-110 pitches and may have been able to avoid the arm injury that shortened his career. What seemed like good luck turned out to be bad luck....

Maybe the best outcome would be if the Twins were able to re-coup some money from an insurance policy on him. If they have one. If I were running an insurance company, I don't think I'd underwrite MLB pitchers....... Has anyone really successfully come back from TOS? It seems like the dreaded "Rotator Cuff Surgery" of the 1970's.

MiLB.com lists Graterol as 6'-1", 180. Does that qualify as "big & strong"? For a pitcher, I'd figure that as 6'-4", 220 and up.... He's 19, so I'd doubt he grows taller, but he'll surely add some weight/strength. But the plane a 6'-1" pitcher operates on is different from 6'-4" and up. Looks like some high ceilings in this grouping.

Any reference to Ball Four earns a "Like" from me. I love that book!

This was something I was curious about after the end of the 2017 season. Would Falvine proceed as if they were 'sticking to the process' of building a long-term success (meaning they would hoard prospects) at the expense of improvement for 2018? Or would they pursue trades for immediate help, pursue free agents, etc? It appears they are going for immediate help (stories about pursuing top free agent SP, leaving spots open on the 40 man). This tells me they feel the org has the talent and depth needed to compete for the World Series in 2018 (with an addition or 2). The 'false positive 2015 season' is what me wonder about this. The Twins were in it until the end, but it felt like a fluke. 2017 started out feeling a little like 2015 (negative run differential for a winning record around the trade deadline?). Plus I see a lot of stories/references to "The Process" in sports nowadays. I hear about it more in NBA stories-the 76ers, Darryl Morey, etc. So I wasn't exactly sure how these new management guys would proceed. So I think it's encouraging to see the hints we've seen so far this offseason. Now comes the hard part of closing on some deals....

Not every vision problem is correctable. I'm guessing the Twins doctors found a real issue, and Marte will end up signing with someone else for half a million or so. If he signs with some other team for anything close to $3 million, then you'd have to question what the Twins did, or question the judgment of the other team.

Hellickson is from Des Moines. Minnesota would be the perfect place for him to re-establish his value. Good defense, close to family..... He was pretty successful in the AL East in the past, but never with a high strikeout percentage or anything close to domination. I could see this happening.....

I think the angst over Ervin isn't that he had a career year, it's based on his age and the effects of Father Time (who remains undefeated). I'm no stat-head, but I believe if you find a starting pitcher who had one of his best years at age 34, then look at the following year or 2, you are going to be a little nervous counting on him to come close to repeating 2017. If you're counting on a youngster like Berrios to improve with age and experience, you have to acknowledge the likelihood of decline on a pitcher turning 35 in December. The problem for the Twins is that it isn't easy to find a top of the rotation starter, this will be a big test for Falvine.

The #1 'similar pitcher through age 24' (on Baseball-Reference) for Lamet is Ryan Rupe. So he shouldn't cost much. Maybe a C- prospect. But #9 on the list is Bob Gibson, so the Twins will have to trade Gordon, Lewis and Gonsalves for him. Plus Duensing, of course. I'd be kind of scared of the high BB %. He just seems kind of raw. Turned 25 in July. I guess they're is room and time for improvement, but I'm not sure he really helps the Twins much in 2018. Jake Arrieta was #6 on the list, so maybe that is a sign that a quick turnaround is a possibilty with him. Maybe the Twins should hire Chris Bosio, I believe he was credited with turning Arrieta from a mostly failed prospect into an all-star.

I thought it would be interesting to see where Sano would rank at your proposed salaries, so I looked up this salary info on spotrac. Since 2022 would be the 1st possible year for Sano on a FA contract, I looked at that year & your projected salary of 16 million. There will be 63 players making 16 million or more in 2018. There are 12 players signed to contracts for 16 million or more in 2022 at this point. If he were to sign this contract, it seems like he'd be somewhere around 70th to 80th in 2022 in the salary rankings. Granted there is a lot of value in locking in that much guaranteed salary this far away (the rest of us can only dream....). And he might be locking in some extra money in those arb years. But I'm thinking Sano wouldn't want to restrict himself to this degree. Most professional athletes are pretty confident in their abilities. (There are 10 contracts for 20 million or more in 2022, and 4 of 25 million or more. 2022 is the last year spotrac has data for....)

The players union would push strongly for this, even if the players existing contracts were reduced by 3.7%. Reason being the addition of 2 teams automatically turns 25 AAAA-type players into major-leaguers, with the accompanying higher salaries. And I'm guessing most players would welcome the reduction in games, even if they took a slight hit in the pocketbook.

Per this article, Lynn is looking for 5 years, 100 million plus. That is why he is available, the Cardinals actually need some stability to their rotation, but don't want to pay that much. My guess is, the Twins won't either. Several teams will probably wait for that price to come down, the question is will some big-spending team take the risk? http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/quick-hits-derrick-goold-on-the-cardinals/collection_0d4da0e4-8e8c-5f2e-9bbb-197bb11d5f65.html

I think comparing Nolasco to Lynn is a disservice to Lynn. Looking at WAR on Baseball-Reference, Lynn has 5 full seasons and his lowest WAR is 1.8. Nolasco has 10 full seasons and has topped 1.8 WAR once. Lynn is by no means an ace, but I feel pretty confident he'll produce a total of 6 WAR in the next 2 seasons, after that..... I'd also predict Lynn produces better results than Ervin Santana in 2018 (just guessing that Undefeated Father Time starts to catch up to big Erv). If you can sign Lynn to a 4 year deal averaging somewhere around 15-18 million, I think you do it. If some teams get desperate and offer more than that, or guarantee the 5th year, I think you have to walk away.

But are all the non-Gardenhire players/executives/ball persons/concessionaires now infected? Don't you have to do a clean sweep to make sure?

I haven't re-read Souhan's article....but wasn't there a reference to Sano's weight fluctuating during the season? I'm no kinesiologist, but I think there is a pretty low limit on the amount of 'good weight' that can be added in a short time frame. So if Sano was at 260 in spring training, but is pushing 290 now, it's almost guaranteed that the gain is mostly 'bad weight'. I'm kind of surprised no nutritional/fitness trainers have hopped in to discuss this (or maybe I missed it). I read the original article more as a warning long-term.

Wasn't there a story confirming that they have insurance on Hughes? Wouldn't Pohlad be saving money if he retired due to injury? I'd kind of think this is the most likely scenario at this point.....

Or Oswaldo Arcia.

I was thinking it was right next to "So-so". But I'm not sure which is higher on the scale.....

He's in danger of having his nickname changed from "Buck" to "Buck Ninety Eight" if he doesn't figure out how to get that average above the Mendoza line. With the luck of the Twins, he'll probably figure out how to hit about a year before he becomes a free agent.