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nicksaviking

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Everything posted by nicksaviking

  1. nicksaviking
    I realize I'm asking for a philosophical change that emphasizes skill and upside over experience. I also realize philosophical changes are laboriously slow to occur in the real world.
  2. nicksaviking
    Walks don't bother me all that much, if a guy can miss bats, a walk should be way more palatable than a hit despite how the broadcasters may sell it. But no way do I want Bastardo for three years, I don't want any reliever on a free agent contract for three years, I want to see the young hard throwers, and I want them now. I'm also not sorry for my impatience, I don't need a finished product, watching them improve is half the fun. I'll take Ray Searge on a three year deal though.
  3. nicksaviking
    Like it or not, his rep is going to carry a lot of weight. Lot's of baseball people love the guy. Not sure if Barardino gets a vote though.... Plus Edmonds almost certainly was compared to the PED contemporaries, fair or not. Hunter likely will be compared with the post PED era, even if those guys had a lot of overlapping years. I don't think he gets in, but I'd bet good money he stays on the ballot quite a long time.
  4. nicksaviking
    This game was a lot more fun about five years ago when Mauer and Johan Santana looked like shoe-ins and Mornuea, Nathan and Hunter looked like they had an outside shot with a strong finishing kick to the end of their careers. At this point, I actually think Nathan has the best, albeit slim, chance of making it. But he'd have to come back healthy, put together a couple more very strong seasons and get 50 or so saves to pass Billy Wagner who along with Trevor Hoffman are contemporaries who got strong HOF consideration this past year.
  5. nicksaviking
    No thanks on that extension with Jepsen. If the Twins really like him come 2017 they can afford to pay him free agent money, it's unlikely he's so good that he'd get much more next off season than he'd demand right now, no need to do another Suzuki/Doumit blunder and extend him after what is likely his peak. He's not a normal arb guy, he'll be 32 this year and he lost a full MPH on his fastball last year and two from his peak velocity. His curve and change aren't that good, he pretty much relies on that fastball. Let's not forget that he wasn't terribly effective with the Rays last year; 4.19/4.22 FIP/xFIP, his K/9 with the Rays was only 7.34 compared to 2014's 10.38 and his walk rate was rising. In fact his BB/9 with the small sample with the Twins was the lowest of his career, that sounds more like a blip than a trend for a 31-year-old. He looks like a serious regression candidate. Edit: I don't like the word regression. He looks like a prime candidate to begin to succumb to the natural effects of aging.
  6. nicksaviking
    It has been a looooong time since the Twins had a young player of this stature, but for the Twins, in most other situations where the roster crunch involves a young player and veterans, the young player almost always finds himself holding the short straw either on the bench or in AAA. I don't think the Twins will do that, but what if Sano plays bad defense and starts the season cold?
  7. nicksaviking
    Yeah this bizarre situation makes most sense if the team is still planning on a trade. I might guess the Twins had ideas of trading Plouffe but for everyone's sake, including Plouffe's peace of mind, they meant to suggest Sano could play OF. Now Plouffe couldn't be traded for good value and the team seems stuck. I wouldn't be surprised if the team truly doesn't know how they are going manage this current situation.
  8. nicksaviking
    Fine by me, except for the biding. They're hard throwing relievers, they need no biding and minimal seasoning. There are a half dozen options which means there isn't room for them all at once, cycle through them and see who sticks. A relief pitcher who is a refined and finished product is called a starter.
  9. nicksaviking
    Tyler Clippard's fastball is down to 91 MPH and his K/9 dropped two points last year. Teams are staying away from his demands for a reason.
  10. nicksaviking
    All the good stuff is out of stock, there are no free agents left for the pen that look like much help at all. Give Burdi, Meyer, Chargois, Rogers, Melotakis, Reed and Peterson priority seating in spring training. Go with the upside over experience; make Fein and company have to out pitch THEM, not the other way around. If the Twins can get Storen on a below-market deal that would be OK by me too. I'd prefer it best if the Twins gave him the closer gig though as then their lefty "problem" could be solved by Perkins filling that role. Plus Storen in a full season as a closer could possibly be worth a QO at the end of the year. Long shots I acknowledge, both paragraphs would likely take a philosophical change to occur.
  11. nicksaviking
    I'm not sure if #3 and #5 are wholly compatible. Even with Nolasco's injury in 2015, the rotation stayed healthy enough to not have enough spots for the young pitchers. I don't think the team should count on injuries or performances to open up spots for Berrios, May or whomever. I'm concerned that the veteran starters will Pelfrey themselves into a season-long spot. They won't be good enough to dominate games, but they'll be acceptable enough that their veteran status will dissuade the team from giving the younger guys with upside their job.
  12. nicksaviking
    I'm going with Lewis Thorpe. No clue at what point he'll be throwing in games again, but I hope when he does, we're all going to be saying, "Man, I forgot how damn high I was on this guy until the TJ issue!" My bet is that he's going to be a top 2 team prospect this time next year.
  13. nicksaviking
    I hadn't heard of that transition from softball to baseball before. I want to ask if that's been done before by an Australian prospect but considering the Twins basically have had 90% of all Australian players in their system at one time or another, I'd think we would have heard of that by now if it was common.
  14. nicksaviking
    "Dozier makes some tremendously athletic plays but some of this results from him not being able to get to balls that are near the edge of his range." This makes total sense to me just using the eyeball test last year. However I think Dozier actually got to most of these balls near the edge of his range, but one recurring image of Dozier for me last year is him getting to a ball but not making a throw. Either he couldn't make a clean transfer or most often, he had no chance of beating the base runner so he held onto the ball. I've always been a bit of a skeptic on some of the defensive metrics as I just find it hard to believe that they can account for the numerous un-thought of variables. They're definitely useful and I don't discount them, but can anyone tell me if any of them can differentiate between Dozier making a play at the edge of his range against Ryan Howard instead of Billy Hamilton?
  15. nicksaviking
    I'd much rather go back to only having access to the Twins (and Cubs and Braves) if it means my team can afford top contracts, they can't now, they once did. It might have been due to some collusion but whether it's the advent of mega contracts, free agency or a players strike, it's always the fans who get the shaft when players get their way, at least small market fans. And again, in an objective setting I'd side with players over owners.
  16. nicksaviking
    If you're asking if I think it's a coincidence that baseball became more "business" at the same time Scott Boras became a household name and mega contracts became common, no I don't, not one bit. If players weren't regularly getting $100M contracts, teams wouldn't be getting $500M tax payer funded stadiums or getting hundreds of millions from TV revenue. It was only the early 1990's when the Twins and Royals were handing out the biggest contracts in baseball.
  17. nicksaviking
    All things being equal, we'd all probably cheer for the millionaires over the billionaires, but that fight isn't the end of the story. The billionaires are business men, it's not like they are going to lose money to to the millionaires and simply shrug their shoulders, they're going to make the fans and tax payers cover their losses. It's not a coincidence that new stadiums, ticket prices and TV demands skyrocketed corresponding to Scott Boras and the mega contracts for players in the mid to late 90's. The MLB players can complain all they want that the owners need to share revenues better, but they're lying if they don't acknowledge who is really footing the bill.
  18. nicksaviking
    Some of us have jobs to get to in the morning and some of us would like our kids to be able to enjoy a game. Games ending at 11 PM can hamper both of those fronts.
  19. nicksaviking
    The ill-fats Twins TV really has hurt this team. The Twins thinking they could demand ESPN prices form the cable and satellite providers when 21 hours of their broadcasting per day would have been watched by no one (24 hours during non-baseball months) was pretty foolish. When that failed and 90% of Twins fans were unable to watch the games, the team had to come crawling back to FSN and accept their substandard deal. Considering how much more money TV generates than the stadium does, the team probably should have put at least as much effort into getting a realistic lucrative TV deal as they did trying to get a new stadium.
  20. nicksaviking
    I'd also guess that catcher is a unique position in that every level wants experienced catchers handling the developmental pitchers. He could be down there not because he needs to be held back but simply because he's good at calling games and a 19-year-old catcher may not be.
  21. nicksaviking
    I really feel that watching the documentary Bull Durham may be beneficial here, at least this part: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KeVca9MwDX8 His favorite players are Ken Griffey Jr and Mike Cameron? It seems a little funny as they were traded for each other. I like the BB/K numbers. The real test for those figures will be full season ball, though probably at least a level higher than the Midwest League. Promising start though and if he can limit the strikeouts while finding ways to get on base, he'd certainly be a revelation for the Twins. Edit: I removed the video and only copied the link as I can't recall if there are any naughty words uttered in that scene, I'd listen myself but I don't have my headphones at work.
  22. nicksaviking
    I think the Twins thought last year too, every year probably, however they didn't pay attention to the national trend, including what was happening on their own roster. The performances of the players corresponded nearly identical to their age. The younger players are just better these days, what they lack in seasoning, they more than make up for in speed, strength, reflex and velocity. There are plenty of bullpen options not named May that should be given spots on the 25-man, and May should bump one of the vets from the rotation. I don't think there is one thing more over-valued by this organization than experience at this time.
  23. nicksaviking
    I agree that May could easily pitch well enough to prove he should be in the rotation, perhaps even lead it, but a problem as I see it is how pitchers are used in spring training. Often starters pitch in later innings and relievers start games, if May is pitching well and Molitor is set on putting him in the pen, Molitor is just going to say, "see how well he's pitching in relief? We can't take him out now."
  24. nicksaviking
    *****Moderator Note****** Remember, if you feel a post or poster violating TD policy PM a moderator or report the post. Airing grievances or accusations inside the threads only derails the thread.
  25. nicksaviking
    In the two recent articles detailing the Twins and their swing mechanics I think Denard Span too could be listed as influenced greatly by the old philosophy. He's got as quiet of a swing as anyone and while it certainly has worked for him considering his career success, he has next to no power despite having a 6' 00" 210 lb frame. I always wondered if he could have been a 5 tool guy had he ever used his lower half to swing. Of course it's possible he could have been a complete flop as well.
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