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nicksaviking

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Everything posted by nicksaviking

  1. nicksaviking
    Well looking at the odds of draft pick success, that's probably the most realistic outcome for any pitcher drafted at or near the top of the draft. Plenty better, plenty worse. Plenty exactly that. Looking at McKay, his velocity, handedness, draft position, repertoire and level of competition look most like Brian Matusz to me; both had huge college numbers also. Matusz was always a top prospect but his stuff never translated, even in the minors. That's only one sample point so it's nothing to base a projection on and I haven't heard any of the draft wonks use the comparable, it's just who I see.
  2. nicksaviking
    OMG. My brain is about to explode. Dear lord help me, I'm siding with the scouts over the analytics department. The analytics department which I was begging to be improved for a decade. But seriously, is Lewis really the scouts top choice? And is McKay really the analysts top choice? Or are they only the top choices of the two being offered to them because Greene/Gore/Wright aren't on the table? Seems like the Cubs would approve though. They go for the bats early. Of course they can afford to spend on pitchers in free agency.
  3. nicksaviking
    Warren Spahn was an all time great. But despite what Bob Feller liked to claim, no one was throwing all that hard back then. There were probably only a handful of guys who regularly hit 90MPH prior to 1960s. Which was also why those guys could go 8-9 innings every start every 4th day.
  4. nicksaviking
    Also, I think the Boras stuff might be overblown. He doesn't tell his client what to do, he only advises, and there's a strong likelihood that both the player and the agent have considerable interest in striking a deal to be known as the first overall pick. And of course the boatloads of money that he'd get instead of going 4th or 5th. Greene and Gore are likely going 2 and 3, a Lewis selection by the Twins hurts McKay and Wright, not any other prep guys and likely not Boras' other guy Gore.
  5. nicksaviking
    All things being equal, I think I'd prefer Lewis over McKay. If it is Lewis though, it won't be equal; if it's so they can get Baz at 35 I'd be OK with the pick. Baz would be my fourth choice for pitcher after Greene, Gore and Wright. Watching the top prep bat and the 3rd best prep arm develop would hold my interest for quite awhile. And then Rooker at 37. And stick him at DH in September.
  6. nicksaviking
    I've heard others say this, however there is no way for the team to know if playing only one position will make an impact; it would be a total guess. And frankly, seeing as guys start to lose velocity around 22-23 years old, any gains made by a new approach may quickly be lost to age. If they pick McKay they are doing so assuming they are picking a guy who throws 89-91 with pick 1:1. I've been waiting to get an ace for a decade. I'm going to be really bummed if they don't get a guy who has a legit chance to become one.
  7. nicksaviking
    Man, it's starting to look like the smart move is just to forfeit the pick!
  8. nicksaviking
    I think there's a couple of shortstops ready to get promoted the second the team starts signing and assigning their draft picks.
  9. nicksaviking
    I for one am in favor of you buying the Twins regardless of what the front office does. You'll sign Machado and Harper right?
  10. nicksaviking
    But they had one HOF starting pitcher and an actual ace. But most importantly, it wouldn't just be the Astros and the Twins in the AL playoffs like back in 1987. The Astros could fart and falter like the Tigers did but the Twins would still need to win two series prior to even getting to the ALCS. I want to win it all very soon, and I want to win it all many times. But with this roster, the odds on winning it all this year are so long; I'd rather hedge my bets and increase my chances for the next couple of years.
  11. nicksaviking
    But why would you make minor moves? Jason Vargas isn't putting this team over the top, so why give up prospects of any kind for just him? This sounds like more half measures; like the Kevin Jepsen trade in 2015 which clearly wasn't going to be close to enough to make the team legit.
  12. nicksaviking
    Personally I'm in favor of improving for the future, and that includes trading the aging and over-achieving Santana. For those that aren't willing to part with Santana now because the team is currently above .500, are you then in favor of trading off major prospects to make major upgrades to the rotation and the bullpen? Because I think there is little debate that this team has no shot at doing anything meaningful without multiple big-time pitching improvements. Standing pat and doing nothing or next to nothing was how this organization used to deal with this situation; I am 100% NOT OK with that. Either do something to improve for the future, or do something to improve now, don't sit on your hands and pray something beyond your control occurs to bail you out. Wishful thinking and winning sports teams only go hand-in-hand in the movies.
  13. nicksaviking
    Turley's been toiling away for a decade and figures something out now? It looks like Boston's AA club moved him to the pen just before releasing him last year, predictably his strikeouts jumped but his always poor walk rate did not improve. Then he goes to Indy ball and has since gotten a handle on the walks. Now 24 months later his relief inflated strikeout numbers and Indy league walk numbers carry over? Is it just a case of small sample size? Or did he figure something out?
  14. nicksaviking
    You're suggesting that if Greene and Stewart where in the same draft, everyone would be putting Stewart on top? I don't buy that one, people liked Stewart but not that much; Stewart was so far behind everyone developmentally.
  15. nicksaviking
    I don't know about the Jay pick, he was supposed to be pretty safe being a college lefty and all. Stewart seemed to pretty clearly be the consensus #4 best player in that draft; I wanted him, I won't fault them for that pick. Buxton over Appel however seems to promote going the risk route.
  16. nicksaviking
    You'd have to give it to the new guys if they dealt Santana this season, that would take some guts knowing the average fan. I'm all for it and looking at Santana's peripheral numbers, his bubble looks ready to burst any minute now, if it already didn't last start.
  17. nicksaviking
    Why would those guys be his ceiling? Or Gausman his floor for that matter? The range of possibilities stretches far above and below those guys. Appel, yes, that could be considered a floor. I'm ready to write him off as a complete bust. And I did want him over Buxton at the time.
  18. nicksaviking
    Did you send him to his room for a time-out?
  19. nicksaviking
    I was just wondering if the command/control issue* was due to being slightly off target or if it's because he's not attacking the zone because he knows AA batters will chase. *To clarify to those who think I'm being pessimistic, I'm not critiquing him, I'm just curious as to the root provocation of his high(ish) number of pitches. I feel good about Gonsalves and I'm just wondering which aspect of pitching he should be working on.
  20. nicksaviking
    What is his velocity at? And is his command now, and in the past been a bit rough? Or has he been one of those pitchers who is intentionally and frequently trying to get swings and misses on pitches out of the zone? Which has always got to be tempting when you know the batters at your level will swing at them.
  21. nicksaviking
    It worked out for Tyler Beede who is also starting to look like a bust. Derek Fisher was also drafted fairly high his first go-round and later improved his draft position.
  22. nicksaviking
    And from reports, he sounds like he has fairly decent command, which probably means he's a "picker" and trying to be cute on the edges and off the plate. For some guys this is a bad sign that their stuff won't translate at higher levels against more selective hitters when they have to intentionally work in the zone. Then there's Jose Berrios who says screw that noise, my stuff will play.
  23. nicksaviking
    Glad Gonsalves is doing well. Looks like his pitches/inning are taking a bit of a step back. From 88 pitches in seven innings in the start on 5/26 to 95 pitches in six innings last start to 96 pitches in five innings yesterday. Regardless of the eye-opening stats, you know that's something the front office is going to demand improve prior to any promotion. And rightly so.
  24. nicksaviking
    He's not gambling though, the player is. He isn't some overlord pulling the strings on all these players, they seek him out and discuss strategy with their agent. If the player wants a less risky decision Boras isn't and can't make him roll the dice.
  25. nicksaviking
    That's the narrative we always make, and I used to be in that camp. However lately I'm not; getting as much money as the player can is obviously nearly always in the player's best interest. I don't think the "greedy agent" stereotype is any more fair for him than it is for any other agent. The players still benefit the most from diligent negotiating. If Boras was hurting his clients to better himself, he wouldn't still be the pre-eminent agent and we'd be hearing horror stories from former employees and clients.
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