Ted Schwerzler

Make no mistake, as good as the Twins front office has been, they are absolute wordsmiths. Having walked back their original plan this offseason, they are now facing a situation where they could be shut out of necessary roster additions. With only final touches remaining, it’s time to get serious about stepping up.Dan Hayes wrote a story on Tuesday at The Athletic that focused on the acquisitions of Rich Hill and Homer Bailey. The former is a top-notch arm that struggles to stay healthy, and the latter represents a solid addition to the floor of the starting rotation. What neither of them accomplish is the impact pitching that Minnesota suggested they were targeting. Thad Levine told Hayes, “The one thing we’ve learned over the years is that you can’t just have a Plan A. Tomorrow’s Plan B becomes the next day’s Plan A.” Derek Falvey went on to suggest he “may rue the day I ever mentioned that (impact) as a singular word.” More swiftly than a dancing Michael Jackson, Minnesota’s top duo is moonwalking their opening comments backwards. There is truth to Falvey’s suggestion that the current Twins roster has impact all over it. They won 101 games, returned a significant amount of talent, and have added to the point where they are better now than when the season ended. All of that is true, but the goal this winter should be to expand upon the opportunity currently in front of them. You can’t fault the Twins for being shut out by uninterested free agents. Gerrit Cole wasn’t coming here, and Stephen Strasburg wanted a Washington reunion. Madison Bumgarner told everyone "No" because he loves his horses, and Zack Wheeler preferred family ties (although the Twins offer being $18MM short probably made that decision easier). Where blame can start to be placed is when obvious opportunity is met with only moderate execution. Enter Josh Donaldson. As Levine suggested, the Twins plans have now shifted. The starting pitching market is largely bare, and unless they’re going to swing a trade (they still should), Hill and Bailey represent the lone new additions. Upgrading elsewhere makes sense, and the former Braves third basemen is an ideal fit for the Bomba Squad. With C.J. Cron onto Detroit, Rocco Baldelli is tasked with designating a new first basemen. Miguel Sano has proven limited, especial going to his left at third base, and would be an ideal candidate to make the switch. Generating 15 DRS a year ago, Donaldson would provide a defensive boon in the infield, and it’s a unit that needs to take a significant step forward. Throw in his .900 OPS from 2019 and you’ve got the makings of a superstar. Reports suggest that Donaldson has at least three four-year offers, coming from Minnesota, Washington, and Atlanta. He’s had the Twins ask for over two weeks though, and that’s where my problem lies. The Nationals are synonymous for deferrals, so it’s fair to assume that could be prohibiting them from being in contention. Atlanta is best positioned geographically, and it was said the third basemen was simply waiting on a guaranteed fourth year from his hometown club. Dangling in front of him is the Twins payday that’s not quite good enough to make a decision. Ken Rosenthal reported on Friday night that Donaldson is waiting for a team to hit his number, believed to be near $110 million. There's possibility Donaldson is angling for Atlanta to be his destination while increasing the take; after all suggestions indicate the Braves will get an opportunity to match before this is done. What also is apparent through Ronsethal's report is that Minnesota isn't there. Expected to be around the 4yr/$100MM range, the Twins leave it to chance to dictate an outcome. Derek Falvey should be on the phone with MVP Sports Group offering up $120 million over four and calling it a day. We can discuss value forever, and there's inherent risk any time you sign a big-dollar free agent. The reality though, is that injury concerns don't subside simply because you end negotiations at $100 million. Also, after pivoting to this plan, are you really interested in going to Plan C because the cost of what amounts to a relief arm ($5 million AAV over the four years) is too much? It’s probably unfair to be frustrated about simply being "in" on free agents. That’s going to happen, and you’re not completely interested in every player you’ve been tied to. Minnesota has been set on two players this offseason however, and they’re now in jeopardy of losing the second because of playing the value game. At some point need and opportunity should factor into the discussion, and by the time Falvey and Levine get there this time around, it may be too late. This offseason would presently be graded as a “C” which is fine if you’re ok with status quo. Looking to take the next step, and truly capitalize on your opportunity, pushing for an “A” is a must. There’s one bullet left, but you actually have to take the shot. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

When the Twins first dipped into free agency this offseason, Thad Levine noted that the roster needed stabilization. The starting rotation was losing four-fifths of the arms, and reunions with Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda became a priority. Although Kyle Gibson wasn’t retained, the front office may have landed his equal.There have been plenty of roster projections and free agent discussions from all corners of Twins Territory this winter. Although Gibson has been somewhat of a polarizing pitcher over his tenure with the Twins, he’d have been a solid fit at the back end of a rotation. Dealing with health issues for much of the season he contributed a significant slide last year following the step forward in 2018. Ultimately the Texas Rangers saw the projectable upside and handed him a nice three-year contract. There’s some risk involved for a guy who has pitched more than 160 innings just once since 2015, but the 2018 version was a considerable asset. Gibson came off the board early, and while Minnesota was more focused on the likes of Zack Wheeler, a pivot was forced when the “impact” arms they sought signed elsewhere. Rich Hill was grabbed earlier this week, and is reflective of that definition when healthy, but it’s the other guy who draws all the parallels. Homer Bailey isn’t a sexy name at all, and I’m not yet sure how I feel about it, but I can understand where the Twins saw an opportunity to upgrade on Gibson. Bailey is two years older than the former Twins first-round pick, and he’s pitched nearly double the number of big-league seasons. Even still, the longtime Reds pitcher owns a career 4.57 ERA, 7.4 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. It’s almost scary how close that is to Gibby’s career 4.52 ERA 7.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 numbers. So, if the thought was that Kyle could work at the back of Minnesota’s rotation, and he should be in line for a bounce back with a clean bill of health, why turn here... right? Again, Gibson was off the board early, and Bailey represents Minnesota responding to the situation more than anything. However, he was had on just a one-year $7 million deal and has already shown signs of improvement. For 12 years the Reds miscast Bailey as their ace. He routinely struggled with injury, and 2019 was the first season he topped 145 innings since 2013. After being serviceable in 18 starts for the Kansas City Royals, it was in 13 outings for the Oakland Athletics that things may have clicked. The 4.30 ERA isn’t glowing by any means, but he posted a 3.65 FIP, 8.3 K/9 and a career best 1.8 BB/9. The 2.9 fWAR was a high-water mark since 2013, and it appears that the time in the bay area might have been a turning point. Never a real hard thrower, Bailey has held a 93-mph average velocity since 2015. What he did with the Athletics however was to elevate the use of his splitter. After using it just 12.9% of the time over the course of his career, he more than doubled that mark last season. Batters couldn’t hit it, generating just a .182 average on the pitch, and he had a whiff rate that nearly reached 40%. So, while Gibson’s allure is rooted in the premise of a health-related rebound, Bailey presents the opportunity to expand on something that has already worked. Minnesota, through the eyes of Wes Johnson and other adept coaches in the system, has become significantly more associated with pitching development. Should Bailey be provided even more usable information from within the Twins clubhouse, taking another step forward is hardly out of the question. I’d be hesitant to expect a near-34-year-old to drastically shift from career norms, but a nice uptick isn’t abnormal either. This same think tank may have seen the breakout of Anibal Sanchez coming, and this is an opportunity for them to execute fully on a similar scenario. Much like Kyle Gibson would have been, the acquisition of Bailey wasn’t a well-received one. Although he doesn’t have the upper-echelon name recognition, he draws parallels to the guy he could replace, and has already shown why the gamble is a worthy one. This story will unfold throughout the season, but Rocco Baldelli’s staff is better today because Homer Bailey is in it. Click here to view the article

How in the world are you all so negative coming off 101 wins, a front office with direction, and a post focused on a ten year sample size.

Recently Nick Nelson outlined some highlights that have taken place in Twins Territory over the course of the past 10 years. Now, on the last night of this decade, it’s time to place a proverbial bow and look ahead through some logically rose- colored glasses.Over the last decade Minnesota compiled a 765-855 record (.472 winning percentage) while failing to win a postseason game (0-7). They competed in October baseball just three times, and won the AL Central Division twice. Long-time General Manager Terry Ryan was ushered out, and so too was long-standing skipper Ron Gardenhire. Concluding with a 101 victories in their final 162 games, a change appears to be on the horizon. In the decade ahead, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will look to assert themselves from a wins and losses perspective. Having established a new culture and blueprinted a strong foundation, the big league club is now beginning to see the fruits of that labor. We can’t accurately predict what will assuredly take place in the years ahead, but there’re some benchmarks that seem plausible to be cleared. $100 million and $150 million will be spent There will never be a time, until proven otherwise, that Minnesota won’t be viewed as a thrift-store organization. Despite spending significant resources on internal positions and developmental initiatives, the checks have not been cashed directly towards major league payroll. This should be the most straightforward slam dunk of all projections. Within the next ten years, as baseball continues to thrive, the Twins will ink both a $100 million free agent as well a team payroll of $150 million. They are entering a competitive window immediately in 2020, and allocating dollars to supplement in-house talent is only logical. Major award drought comes to an end No Twins player has won either the Cy Young or MVP since Joe Mauer in 2009. Mike Trout will continue to roll up his tally there through the 2020’s, but someone like Byron Buxton could pop up in contention for a year or two. Where I think it’s most likely is on the mound. Six different organizations captured Cy Young awards in the American League this past decade. Four times since 2007, a Cleveland pitcher has won the award. Having entrusted a former part of that brain trust with running the organization, and seeing the growth from a pitching development standpoint, I’d be far from shocked if the infrastructure bears fruit. Jose Berrios could get there. Maybe Brusdar Graterol or Jordan Balazovic emerges. An acquired arm looking to unlock that next level could be the key as well. Playing for it all sounds fun We are closing in on 30 years since the Twins even played in a World Series. The organizational failed to win a single postseason game in the last decade, and the one before featured a 6-16 record over five different playoff appearances. At this point, Minnesota looks poised to be a consistent threat for the immediate future, and painting them solely as a division winner seems foolish. If the current momentum is expanded upon and harnessed correctly, a couple of series victories could quickly turn into a deep run that winds up either with a parade or heartbreak, but a showing in the Fall Classic regardless. Prospect breakout finally comes through No Minnesota Twins prospect has broken onto the scene with a Rookie of the Year victory since Marty Cordova captured the trophy in 1995. Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton had all of the pedigree but lacked some of the early results. Luis Arraez looked the part but didn’t have sufficient at-bats behind his body of work. With what Minnesota has built on the farm, it’s a good bet the drought will come to an end soon. Throw a dart between Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Jordan Balazovic, and Brusdar Graterol to claim which is going to make the biggest immediate impact in the near future. Then note the developmental prowess and drafting history of the organization as it stands today, and the reality is quickly apparent that high-quality graduating youth in this system will be an enticing proposition for quite some time. Without wanting to venture out on a limb incapable of holding the weight, these select suggestions seem monumental in action even if they aren’t substantial in number. Defining where the Twins are, and where they are headed, seems to be as simple as this: The future is bright and the direction is sound. Baseball is not at all a sprint, and this journey is one Twins Territorians should be giddy about. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Today the Minnesota Twins announced one-year contracts with veteran starting pitchers Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. The former immediately slots into the starting rotation while the latter won't be an option until early summer. With both acquisitions it's evident that the front office has an eye on building depth for a deep run. Last Postseason Rocco Baldelli turned to rookie arm Randy Dobnak at Yankees Stadium. It seemed like a logical move given all of the available options, but predictably it went awry. Rather than needing to go down another unproven path, it's been in stabilizing the foundation that Minnesota has operated in constructing a winner for 2020. Early on in the offseason Thad Levine suggested that the front office was aware of the need for impact pitching. Jake Odorizzi was a nice returning addition, and Michael Pineda may have been the best 5th starter in baseball last year. Looking for another arm to slot into the top three of the rotation, there has yet to be that level of acquisition made. I can listen on Rich Hill fitting that bill, but there's a good deal of uncertainty surrounding his efforts, and we won't know his capabilities until June at the earliest. Dating back to 2015 Hill has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. In that time he's posted a 2.91 ERA and 3.43 FIP with a 10.7 K/9 and a 2.8 BB/9 total. Not an overpowering arm, he's a magician when it comes to putting the ball past hitters, and that's made him a key cog in a very good Los Angeles Dodgers rotation. The reason he's available however, is because a 40th birthday is upcoming and it's yet to be seen how his elbow responds to recent surgery. There's obviously a good deal of belief in what Hill has left as evidenced by the Twins monetary commitment to him. Although the guaranteed salary is just $3 million, he can push that total all the way up to $12.5 million by contributing 75 innings or 15 starts. Extrapolate that figure to a full season and you're looking at a guy that would represent a commitment above $24 million. In Homer Bailey, the addition is a bit different. He doesn't have the high upside that Hill does, and the floor is relatively unremarkable. After being bad for quite a few years, he took considerable steps forward in 2019, and showed very well after being dealt to the Oakland Athletics. His 3.65 FIP was one of the best marks of his career, and his walk rate took a nice dive. Minnesota's front office had already entrenched Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi at the top of their rotation. Bailey should fit in a the 4th option with Pineda eventually sliding into the five-hole come May. Hill can pitch out of any of the top three spots from June onwards, but banking on his contributions seems a bit lofty given the present opportunity. This is where the final step lies. Having built the roster backwards this winter, it's in the last touch that Minnesota can truly put this over the top. A corner infielder is still needed, and a Josh Donaldson signing would be monumental. Sure, Marwin Gonzalez can play first base, but removing his utility would seem to limit his upside. Hill and Bailey could round out the rotation, but swinging a trade for an upper-tier arm should still be the goal. Before these moves were made official my belief was that the Twins were two Opening Day arms away from calling it good. Bailey represents one of them, and the second is still to be determined. The 40 man roster is now full, prospects are aplenty, and opportunity is there for the taking. Falvey and Levine finding a trade of their liking to bolster the top half makes a depth group highlighted by Hill and supplemented by names like Thorpe, Smetlzer, Dobnak, and Graterol all the more exciting. On it's own, this pair of pistols can't be seen as enough. With a last boost to the top of the ladder, then it's more than worthy of calling the offseason complete. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

March 10, 2015 was the debut of Off The Baggy. I had begun writing roughly a year prior and found myself trying out this newfound hobby at a few different blogs. Looking for an outlet to more completely express my own opinions this place was born. As the decade comes to a close, it's worth looking back at how this has all grown. I’m not sure what my Twitter following was back in those days, but I know that original announcement of another Minnesota Twins blogging alternative was read just 30 times. I’ve now cultivated over 330k pageviews, have a Twitter following north of 12,000, and this piece will be the 875th entry on this site. None of that is remarkable on its own, but the purpose when starting out on this adventure was always generating engagement. I wasn’t a fan of Twitter initially, failing to understand the point and its usage. Upon a closer look, it became obvious that it was a vehicle for consuming the most pertinent information to my general interests. By constructing a feed geared towards my preferred news I became excited about the quick hitting updates. When Twitter stopped being enough to share my thoughts and outlook with those I had met, or those I would come to engage with, blogging represented a new opportunity. Being able to write out thought processes in a longform style, having an ability to look back, and in general create a whole new level of engagement, was immediately thrilling for me. Since those early days I’ve now found myself experiencing opportunities I would’ve never thought possible. Relationships, both from readers and professional athletes alike, have spun up out of nowhere. I’ve had the opportunity to act as a reporter from a Major League clubhouse. I’ve broken news. I’ve written good things, and some less than quality. I’ve been brought on as a regular contributor to the best baseball fan site in the country, and it has never once felt like anything more than an exciting outlet furthering the consumption of baseball. I have no idea what the next decade looks like for me and blogging, but I do know I’m ecstatic to still have an outlet and a growing population of people willing to share their input. I’d bet heavily on this set of years being more enjoyable from a Twins fan perspective, and with that being the chief source of subject matter, I’m excited to buckle up for the ride. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

At the beginning of December, the Winter Meetings took place. Putting a bow on them was once again the Rule 5 draft. This time around the club didn’t make a selection. That wasn’t the case back in 2003, and that year ties Nelson Cruz and David Ortiz together in baseball history.Terry Ryan decided that a 26-year-old David Ortiz, and his career .809 OPS with 58 homers, was worthy of release prior to the 2003 season. Jose Morban was the man worthy of a roster spot, and the 23-year-old never wound up playing for the Twins before returning to Baltimore and generating just a .412 OPS in 61 games. Fast forward to 2020 and we’re looking at the question of regression regarding Nelson Cruz, but able to do it through the lens of Red Sox legend, Mr. Ortiz. “Big Papi,” as he’s affectionately known, went on to play 14 seasons with the Boston Red Sox. He didn’t retire until he was 40 years old, and he swatted 541 career home runs. Unlike many players that are simply lapped by the game in their later years, Ortiz went out on top. In 2016 he played 151 games while posting a ridiculous .315/.401/.620 slash line. He blasted a league-leading 48 dingers and paced the crowd with 127 RBIs. Despite a 6th place MVP finish and clearly being capable of big-league production, he stepped away. Last season Cruz entered his maiden voyage in Twins Territory. The late-blooming slugger joined his fifth organization and posted a career best 1.031 OPS. At 38-years-old he hit 41 longballs and owned a career best .392 OBP. He played in just 120 games dealing with intermittent wrist injuries, but ultimately showed there were no signs of slowing down. The hope would be that 2020 represents more of the same, and Ortiz provides the example that age may simply be just a number. On pace for a 5.8 fWAR over the course of a full season, Cruz was more productive on a per-game basis than he’s ever been. Steamer projects a step up in games played at 147 in 2020, but the 2.9 fWAR is quite a bit of regression. The OPS sags to .909 with the home run total ending at 40. It’s a very solid output, but with the additional games adding to the body of work, leaves plenty of production on the table. Although projection systems are mathematically sound, there’s analytical substance to the idea that Cruz may not be ready to give in yet. Say what you want about the baseball itself from a season ago, but the controlled outputs were plenty impressive on their own. A 52.5% hard hit rate was a career best and paced the sport (among hitters with 450 ABs). While he was walloping the baseball, a 31.3% rate of fly balls leaving the yard was only topped by Brewers MVP candidate Christian Yelich. Nelson didn’t chase more, or swing through more pitches, and he actually took a slight dip in contact. What that formula suggests is quality of contact being through the roof. Branching out from Fangraphs, Baseball Savant agrees with the data as well. A 12.5% barrels/plate appearance tally put him in first place by nearly a full percentage point. His average exit velocity was trumped by only Aaron Judge and teammate Miguel Sano, and his xwOBA of .418 ranked 5th highest in the game. In short, Nelson Cruz is doing all the right things that would make his production regression projection go poof. Now, as bodies age, a dip could be seen unexpectedly. Time is undefeated, and at some point, will get its due. To suggest that it’s coming simply because he’s a year older and approaching 40 however, does not seem like the greatest bet. David Ortiz is the latest example to prove competence in his twilight, and as much fun as slugging sendoffs are (looking at you Jim Thome), Cruz appears to be more contributing than cooling in the year ahead. Toting only a bat to the ballpark on a regular basis isn’t a bad gig for an aging star and having a few less big-league miles on a late bloomer can’t hurt either. Nelson Cruz had his nap room installed in the bowels of Target Field, and allowing him the opportunity to continue to wake and rake is something his employer should bask in. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Following the 2016 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins ushered in a new era. Gone was Terry Ryan and in was Derek Falvey. From that point forward, no attribution of what the organization has always done held weight, and it will be buzzwords that ultimately decide the fate of the current duo.When Thad Levine was introduced, the talk was about collaboration. Their organizational restructure has been focused around internal infrastructure. Upon entering a competitive window in 2020, the suggestion was for a necessary "impact" pitching addition. Each of the small quips or phrases allude to a larger story or goal, but it is there they will now be held accountable. Impact pitching is now gone from the open market. When the Toronto Blue Jays landed Hyun-Jin Ryu, there were officially no arms left that would slot into the upper half of Rocco Baldelli’s rotation. That leaves us questioning where the club turns, but it’s worth suggesting that this front office very likely may have intended this path all along. Jim Pohlad has not protected his pockets against this duo, and Falvine has not collaboratively come up with black eyes like “bilateral leg weakness.” No, this front office bided their time before appointing a Manager of the Year-quality leader in his rookie campaign. They nabbed a topflight collegiate pitching coach, they’ve overhauled the Baseball Operations department, and they’ve pilfered talent from all over the nation no matter what notch had been achieved on their target's belt. In short, they’ve laid a foundation for a successful and sustainable plan designed around competition. Not surprisingly, that’s also how they’ve handled the offseason thus far. Thad Levine suggested that the initial goal was to “stabilize” the roster, and then move toward a position of “impact.” In retaining top talent and filling out the bullpen, it’s now reached the critical juncture of impact acquisitions being the only thing left to accomplish. If the offseason ended today, you’d be hard-pressed to find a Twins fan pleased with where things stand. Fortunately, it doesn’t end today, and that’s where our focus should be. Given the goodwill generated by shrewd and well-timed decision making thus far, it’s hard to imagine a complete failure waiting in the weeds. The Twins have something like $30 million yet to hand out, and those impact moves they’ve preached have yet to be made. Rather than operating from the standpoint that it was all just talk, the surmise that we will see those "impact" developments is a very exciting one. I can listen on Terry Ryan failing to land big fish. Maybe the Pohlad’s weren’t willing to open their pocketbooks for the necessary resources. We haven’t ever seen otherwise at this point, but the circumstances today are not what they were a decade ago. This offseason won’t be defined by what Minnesota has always done, or how the former regime operated. This all comes down to the execution plan from a dual-headed monster that has done everything to position the club in its current state as favorites within the AL Central Division. Should the buzzwords end up going undefined and unfulfilled once the club heads to Twins Territory South down in Fort Myers, a full-on roast should be sent toward 1 Twins Way. Until that point however, the anticipation of impact and belief in those having fostered all this promise seems like a far fairer expenditure of emotional resources. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins set the major league single-season record for home runs by a team in 2019. They earned the nickname “Bomba Squad,” and were propelled by big time bats like Miguel Sano and Nelson Cruz. Rocco Badelli’s club bashed their way into the Postseason, but there was one guy who broke the mold. Enter Luis Arraez.At 22-years-old Arraez had played in 329 minor league games. He was not a top 100 prospect, and though he appeared on the fringes of all top Twins lists, his game was focused heavily around a single skill. His ability to hit for average by combining strong pitch recognition with impeccable plate discipline had pushed his career slash line to .331/.385/.414. Starting the year at Double-A Pensacola, he made a three-game pit stop in Rochester and then it happened. In the early morning hours of May 17, Mariana Guzman of Twins Latinos reported that Arraez was on his way to the big leagues. He quickly proved that his strong bat to ball skills would work at the big-league level and began a full court campaign on taking over the starting second base role for Minnesota. Expecting anyone else to jump from nondescript prospect to the second coming of Tony Gwynn in 2020 is lofty at best, but we can take a stab at a similar success story. Given the depth employed by Minnesota on the farm, projecting another emergence isn’t necessarily groundbreaking. If there’s a player positioned to fulfill the role however, it’s Travis Blankenhorn in my eyes. A third-round pick back in 2015, Blankenhorn was grabbed out of Pottsville High School. He’s now 23-years-old and coming off a strong Double-A debut. After posting an .850 OPS in his second pro season, he trended downwards at both Low and High-A the next two seasons. Reaching Pensacola, he re-established himself and earned a spot on the 40-man roster this winter. Blankenhorn couldn’t be more different from Arraez when comparing skillsets. He’s got some swing and miss to his profile and the .325 on-base percentage across 462 games isn’t earth-shattering by any means. He’s clubbed 56 career dingers, 19 of which came last season. The pop should play at multiple positions, and that’s where a good deal of his value lies. After splitting time between second and third to start his career, he ventured to the outfield a good amount last season. This isn’t a super utility player, but he’s not going to be stretched by moving around the diamond. When trying to nail down someone that looks the part of an unexpected riser, something that would seemingly need to be present is opportunity. The path created by a 40-man roster spot blazes that trail, and the flames are fanned by the prospect of additional utility. Given the 26th spot on 2020 major league rosters, and the fringe utility types that the Twins may employ, Blankenhorn represents a strong backup plan. It was Jonathan Schoop and Ehire Adrianza that presented holes for Arraez to fill last season, and the latter could once again offer up an opening. The largest wrench in any sort of continued steam for Blankenhorn would be his strikeout rate. After a .343 OBP at Cedar Rapids two seasons ago, he’s posted a .299 mark at Fort Myers and just a .312 tally in Pensacola. The power is nice to see, but his promotion will come on the back of an expectation that he can hold his own against big league pitching. If that takes another step forward, and the defensive utility remains strong, then the only thing holding him back should be playing time. Andrew Vasquez was the first selection from the 2015 draft to make the majors, and LaMonte Wade Jr joined him last season. Jaylin Davis debuted for the San Francisco Giants, but it’s Blankenhorn that could be the first (maybe only) top five selection to accomplish that feat. He’s a name to watch in the year ahead, and another Arraez-type breakthrough would certainly be a great development in Twins Territory. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

From what I've seen there's very few industry reporters that think Cleveland did well. Kluber is an unknown that was sold at his lowest point for a one pitch reliever and a 4th outfielder. The Indians would need Clase to be Aroldis Chapman in order to come out ahead. I don't agree that Kay, who was the headliner on that deal, is anything close to Duran. Again, that was immediately seen as a light return, and one of the points of contention. So many other teams could have beat that if that's where the price was.

I'm not sure I agree with the assessment of their outfield. They've got Conforto, Nimmo, and now Marisnick. Believe I saw it reported that McNeil's role would be in the infield/utility.

This is where I tried to consider things as well. We often over-value our own prospects and have more intimate knowledge of those names. The return for Marcus Stroman was incredibly light as well.

While I agree with the many sentiments suggesting that this might be light, my pause came in also considering what deals have been accepted. Rosario doesn't have negative trade value, even if it's substantially muted. My initial proposal had Balazovic or Duran as the inclusion instead of Enlow. I thought that may have entered the realm of being a stretch. I don't think the Mets should be trading Thor either, but they've continued to be run poorly in the time that Brodie has spent there. This was also operating less from the belief that New York would be motivated to make the move, and rather from the standpoint that they reportedly engaged Minnesota at the deadline. Of the five deals discussed in the linked article, I would do all but the swap with Detroit. I'm not a Matt Boyd guy at all.

It’s been a while since I’ve fielded some questions and handled a Twins mailbag. With the offseason in full swing, and plenty of irons in the fire, the Minnesota Twins have provided a good deal of questions for fans. Doing my best to pick out a handful of them, here’s my take on some of the discussion. The Twins have been tied to a handful of position players, but really the only role needing to be filled is corner infield. If Sano moves to first base, then the idea of Josh Donaldson makes a ton of sense. Minnesota has suggested they feel comfortable starting Marwin at first, but I feel like that saps a significant amount of his value. Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, or a recently proposed trade including Daniel Murphy could all be in play. Obviously, Alex Avila was inked to slot in behind Mitch Garver. I don’t think there’s any question as to whether Minnesota will acquire another pitcher. They only uncertainty is what avenue they’ll choose to go down. Hyun-Jin Ryu is an ideal fit, but he’s about the only “impact” arm left on the open market. They could swing a trade and then decide to sign someone like Julio Teheran as an additional bullet. This was part of my piece for the Twins Prospect Handbook, but I did offer it up on Twitter so you can have it again here. If there’s a guy I like to make a Luis Arraez like, out of nowhere impact, it’s Travis Blankenhorn. He was added to the 40-man this offseason, can play everywhere, and is close to big league ready. https://twitter.com/AndyS_Denver/status/1206980145526886402 That shipped has probably sailed, he just hasn’t shown the chops to stick in the rotation. Unfortunately, we’re bordering on the time when Romero’s run with the organization ends as well. He’s out of options, so unless he shows well enough this spring to grab a bullpen spot, he’ll likely be claimed off waivers by someone else. If you’ve followed me for any amount of time on Twitter you know I’m not high on what Rosario brings to the table. I loved him as a prospect and was onboard a trade for an aggressive promotion schedule. He’s 28 now, has no ability to control the strike zone, plays poor defense, and produces hollow stat lines. Should the Twins be able to deal him, it would be on the premise of another level being unlockable. I don’t think he’s good enough to command much of anything on his own but packaging him with a prospect and dangling Rosario as an MLB-ready piece could have appear for someone. Funny you should ask; I wrote that exact scenario up at Twins Daily last night. Give it a read here. My ideal arm from the get-go has been Jon Gray, though I do like German Marquez quite a bit as well. I’d be in on either Chris Sale or David Price if the Red Sox want salary relief. You won’t find a stauncher supporter of Miguel Sano’s ability that myself. I think you’re guaranteed to get a significant power threat and real home run production if he stays on the field. For all involved, I think the biggest turning point was creating an environment of accountability and buy in. This front office has cultivated a strong infrastructure that no doubt supports its players. Miguel’s problems always stemmed from his level of commitment. We saw buy in last year, and unless he’s willing to throw that away, I’d imagine it remains consistent. He won’t be a perennial All-Star, especially if he crosses the diamond (and eventually moves into the DH role), but a lineup staple seems like a good bet. Harmon Killebrew, Rod Carew, Kirby Puckett, Joe Mauer I did get a good deal of questions regarding timelines for prospects as well. I do love those, but it’s the subject of my yearly piece for the Twins Prospect Handbook. That will be available in the coming weeks, so you’ll have to check that out there. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Back at the July 31st trade deadline Star Tribune beat writer LaVelle E. Neal keyed in on the talks had between the New York Mets and the Minnesota Twins. Names like Noah Syndergaard and Byron Buxton were tossed around, but nothing came to fruition. What happens if a blockbuster is the avenue to impact pitching this winter?If there was a misstep by the front office at the deadline, it was missing on the Toronto Blue Jays' Marcus Stroman. Maybe the Canadians never circled back, but Minnesota easily could have trumped the New York offer. Eventually they pivoted to talking with the Mets directly, and the man coined Thor reportedly came up in talks. Byron Buxton was the ask, and that was out of the question. Injury makes it easy to judge that in hindsight, but it remains a logical position from the Twins brass. What if there was another way to do that deal though? Parting ways with Byron Buxton in the middle of a record-breaking season would have been asinine for the Twins. Flipping him off of an injury, while he still looks the part of a superstar due to his exploits in the field and rise at the dish, would remain an odd proposition. If Syndergaard was on the table then though, he may still remain so, and going the route of quantity could be enough to reach the finish line. The key for the Mets during the season was an acquisition of major league-ready players. They have just lost Zack Wheeler, and had parted with top prospects to bring in an aging Robinson Cano. Despite being in the big city, Carlos Beltran’s squad remains the kid brother to the Bronx Bombers. Rebuilding the overall talent pool is something that Brodie van Wagenen should be focused on, and a plethora of impact prospects would certainly advance that possibility. Syndergaard is under team control for two more seasons, at which point he’ll be entering his age-29 season. He will soon become quite expensive, and that would need to be a consideration for any acquiring team as well. Blending a return that satisfies some immediate assistance with future gain is the way I’d attack this if I were the Twins. Mets receive: Eddie Rosario, Trevor Larnach, Blayne Enlow, and Travis Blankenhorn Twins receive: Noah Syndergaard In this scenario Minnesota is giving up a current big leaguer who has posted just shy of 8.0 fWAR over the past three seasons in Rosario. He’s a left-handed bat that would immediately boost the New York outfield, and at 28-years-old, becomes an extension candidate should things trend upwards prior to his free agency in 2022. A former first-round pick and current top 100 prospect, Trevor Larnach represents future value that is very close to paying dividends. He’s a power corner guy with a pretty safe floor. Moving to the second half of the deal, New York would be looking to cash in on the ceiling. Enlow was an above slot deal back in 2017 and has looked the part at each level. He’s still a developing arm, but a 50 future value makes him an intriguing option in the middle of a rotation. Blankenhorn could end up being more of a utility guy, but there is a lot to like in his profile. He does a lot of things well and looks like a pretty safe bet to contribute at the major league level. Certainly, this is a haul for the Twins to part with, but they’d be doing so to acquire a bona fide ace. Ideally an extension could be worked out with Syndergaard but that’s probably a lofty ask given the impending payday coming on the open market. Pairing the current roster with a solid number one could be the needle-moving decision that strengthens a likely postseason battle with the Yankees in each of the next two seasons. No matter how Minnesota ends up acquiring the impact arm they talked about heading into the offseason, a level of risk and decisive action will need to be taken. Hyun-Jin Ryu is among the small list of names still warranting a hefty payday, while prospect capital or eating salary from another organization represent the alternative modes of spend. The trade market is a difficult one to nail down. Between having multiple options (of which some very intriguing scenarios were recently presented by Skor North’s Jake Depue), and uncertain returns (looking at you Cleveland Indians), we really never know what to expect. How would you feel about this move, and what would you do differently? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Will be revisiting 15-30 at Midseason. Right now he’s probably around 20 for me. Like him quite a bit though.

That’s not actually true though. Every team in baseball would want a prospect that talented in their system. No team is going to take a 20 year old who struggled at Low-A and put them on their active roster for a full season.

The Winter Meetings in San Diego have come to a close and the Minnesota Twins have all sights set on the 2020 Major League Baseball season. Rocco Baldelli is looking to repeat an extraordinary 2019 performance, and the big-league club looks to remain one of the best in the majors. As the reigning AL Central Division champions, the Twins now have teams gunning for them, and while the offseason still must incorporate significant talent acquisition, getting contributions from a deep and loaded farm system is something to be expected. My top 15 prospects were last updated back in June at the midway point of the season; you can find those here. Going back over rankings, here is the full history. 2016 Top 15 Prospects 2017 Top 15 Prospects 2018 Top 15 Prospects 2019 Top 15 Prospects 15. Nick Gordon INF Gordon followed the same narrative he has employed most of his minor league career. Year two at Triple-A was significantly better than the first season, but the ceiling looks relatively muted at this point. He’s a contact hitter with average defensive ability and good speed. There are some question marks on passion, but talent remains enough for him to be a big league regular. 14. Matt Canterino RHP After being taken in the 2nd round of the 2019 draft Canterino quickly established himself in pro ball. He skipped over Elizabethton and turned in five nice starts at Low-A. He’s got strikeout stuff, and while the delivery is somewhat quirky, it showed well in his debut. We’ll need to find out what tweaks are necessary as he rises through the system, but this looks like a middle of the rotation arm. 13. Wander Javier SS No one had more anticipation leading up to 2019 than Javier. After missing all the 2018 season, he finally had a clean bill of health. Now with the year in the rear view, it’s hard not to suggest health was the only positive development. Playing 80 games at Cedar Rapids, Javier posted just a .601 OPS and put up a 116/35 K/BB. He’s got all the talent to be a top 20 prospect in baseball, but he needs a turnaround in 2020 badly. 12. Matt Wallner OF A big arm but drafted for his bat, Wallner showed out in his first year of pro ball. He posted an .813 OPS at Elizabethton and swatted six homers. His time in Cedar Rapids didn’t include gaudy numbers, but it was brief only getting in 12 games. Owning somewhat of a similar profile to fellow prospect Brent Rooker, Wallner should be able to use his athleticism to continue producing at higher levels. 11. Keoni Cavaco SS Minnesota grabbed Cavaco with the 13th overall pick and sense him to the GCL. Freshly out of high school, the 18-year-old didn’t get off too much of a hot start. That said, he ascended draft boards due to strong national showings, and his tools all jump off the page. The most important thing that took place for him this year was simply getting engrained into the pro ball schedule. 10. Ryan Jeffers C If there’s something the Twins did at the highest level last year, it was develop catchers. Jeffers took another step forwards behind the dish, and his bat continues to be an asset. He was promoted to Double-A down the stretch and generated an .856 OPS. Possessing true home run power as well as a growing ability as a defender, he’s asserted himself as the best catching prospect in the system. 9. Blayne Enlow RHP Things just continue to trend upwards for the Louisiana native. He made it to High-A Fort Myers and posted a 3.38 ERA across 69.1 IP. The hope would be that strikeouts would continue to rise with the walks seeing some decrease. He’s still working on pitching, honing in command, and being able to do more than simply put the ball behind opposing hitters. There’s a ton of talent here and he’s a hard enough worker to harness it all. 8. Lewis Thorpe LHP Thorpe’s big-league debut came as a contributor to the Twins division title. Although he posted a gaudy 6.18 ERA, it was backed by a 3.47 FIP and was a result of one blow up start against the Indians. He was great in relief and posted a strong 10.1 K/9. He should be still viewed as a starter, but he could be a lefty weapon out of the pen if a change is made. Although he won’t ever be an ace, he looks the part of a certain asset in on the mound. 7. Jhoan Duran RHP An MLB debut is probably on the horizon for Duran in 2020 if things go well. He was dominant at High-A Fort Myers and outpitched his 4.86 ERA at Double-A Pensacola. A fireballer with strikeout stuff, this is looking like a very nice return for the Twins from the Eduardo Escobar trade. Duran keeps the ball in the yard and does a decent job limiting walks. Another step up and he could be trending towards a frontline starter. 6. Brent Rooker 1B/OF Somewhat limited by position and age, Rooker continues to rake and make it not matter. He could factor in for the Twins at 1B if the footwork gets in line, but the bat is going to have him up sooner rather than later. He missed the latter half of the season due to injury, but in 65 games at Triple-A Rochester he posted a .933 OPS with 14 dingers. Expect him to start on the farm, but there should be early opportunity for him in the majors. 5. Trevor Larnach OF After a strong pro debut with an .890 OPS over his first 42 games in 2018, the former Beavers outfielder did nothing to calm his steam last season. He made it to Double-A Pensacola and posted the same .842 OPS he had in 84 games with High-A Fort Myers. A power threat homered in his first major league spring training game, Larnach can play all over the outfield and could push for an opportunity with the Twins before 2020 ends. 4. Jordan Balazovic RHP Maybe no one in baseball ascended more in 2019 than Balazovic did. After being a fringe top 100 prospect, it’s hard to see him anywhere outside the top 50 heading into the upcoming season. He threw 73 innings for Fort Myers and posted a 2.84 ERA. The strikeouts are there, the command is there, and it all resulted in dominance. We’ll see if he’s tested at the next level, but the Canadian is looking like a staff ace. 3. Brusdar Graterol RHP A three-inning cameo was what Graterol got to call his MLB debut experience. Velocity is his game and that showed as he routinely pumped triple digits. Strikeouts dipped for him at Double-A Pensacola this year, but he was enough of an asset to be used out of the pen on a division winning club. Expect him to go back to starting and be stretch out to begin 2020, but there’s so much to like here. If a third pitch develops, he could be a dominant starter. If it doesn’t, he’ll be a lockdown relief talent. 2. Alex Kirilloff OF Missing time to start the year, Kirilloff took a while to get going. It resulted in just a .756 OPS in his first look at the Double-A level, but that shouldn’t cool anything about his trajectory. He’s still a corner outfielder that oozes athleticism and has an advanced approach at the dish. He’s a disciplined hitter with plenty of power, and a quick start in 2020 is going to light a fire under the promotion talk. 1. Royce Lewis SS Much like Kirilloff, Lewis didn’t get off to a quick start and his bat scuffled all season. He posted just a .661 OPS between Fort Myers and Pensacola, while being questioned as to whether he’d stick at shortstop. Heading to the Arizona Fall League, he took home the MVP trophy and challenged for the batting title after posting a .975 OPS in 22 games. There’s far too much talent to ever write Lewis off regardless of the sample size. This kid still looks like an absolute superstar and getting back in a Blue Wahoos uniform to prove it is likely driving him this winter. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz