Ted Schwerzler

I’m doing this a bit earlier than normal this year, and that could wind up being a silly decision depending on injuries and how Spring Training plays out. Regardless, we aren’t sitting on a slew of unsigned talent in early March, and I’m confident with the look of many big-league squads going into 2020 at this point. Let’s hand out some hardware. The Washington Nationals will head into the season looking to defend their World Series trophy. That hasn’t been successfully accomplished in 20 years, since the New York Yankees ripped off three in a row. I don’t see that trend changing in 2020, and that should be an exciting reality for baseball fans. The sport has never seen so many young superstars, and the landscape of the league’s best is once again shifting. Here's what I had going into 2019. I got a couple of the awards right, and nailed the World Series, but ultimately came up just short of getting the winner. MVP: American League – Mike Trout (Dark Horse Gleyber Torres) National League – Bryce Harper (Dark Horse Kris Bryant) Until further notice, Mike Trout is the selection in the American League. He’s not only the greatest player in the game right now, but very well could be the best we’ve ever seen do it. There isn’t a hole in his game, and he seems to find ways to take another step forward each year. The Angels star now has a more loaded lineup around him and will look to get back to playing 150+ games. Generating 10+ fWAR for the first time since 2013 seems like a good bet. After signing the massive deal with the Phillies, Bryce Harper had somewhat of a disappointing season. You’ll certainly take an .882 OPS any day of the week however, and now acclimated entering his age-27 campaign, a jump back up to a 1.000+ OPS is something I’m comfortable with. Marry the last two years patience and production to generate something that should be near the total package. On the dark horse side, it’s more about what I like in each situation as opposed to legitimate threats to the actual award. Gleyber looks like an absolute superstar, and the Yankees are already going to be leaning on him heavily. Bryant has been plagued by injuries and underwhelming narratives, but he’s still coming off a .903 OPS. I don’t know what the Cubs will do, but he’ll stir that drink for sure. Cy Young: American League – Gerrit Cole (Dark Horse Jose Berrios) National League – Walker Buehler (Dark horse Jack Flaherty) Switching teams worked out well for Cole the last time he did it, and there’s no reason to expect his dominance to fade in New York. He’s pitched in a hitter’s ballpark before, and the Yankees rotation will count on him heavily. I tabbed Buehler as the pick last year in the National League, and I might have been just a year early. He finished with the 4th best fWAR and could certainly catch the two Nationals arms in the 2020 season. This is still Jacob deGrom’s title to lose, but I like the Dodgers ace. Maybe recycling Jose Berrios as a dark horse here isn’t fair, but he’s truly so close. A strong finish to his 2019 would’ve have him in a much better position, and he still finished 7th among AL starters in terms of fWAR. Minnesota is going to make noise again, and he should be expected to lead the rotation. If you’ve watched the Cardinals at all then there’s nothing under-the-radar about Flaherty. He’s a stud and emerging as one of baseball’s best arms. He mixed into the tier right below elite territory last year, but another step forward would have him second to no one. Rookie of the Year: American League – Luis Robert (Dark Horse Jo Adell) National League – Gavin Lux (Dark Horse Mitch Keller) One of the chief requirements in garnering Rookie of the Year consideration is playing time, and Luis Robert will have that on his side. He’s an uber-prospect and will be with the White Sox from the jump. I’d expect some growing pains, but there’s too much talent not to side with the favorite in the AL. Lux made his debut last season for the Dodgers and will be unleashed fully in 2020. He’s a middle infield stud and should have little issue producing with a star-studded lineup around him. Back to that playing time issue, which is the only reason I don’t like Adell over Robert. I think the Angels start their outfield prospect in the minors and holding him out for a month or two could make the counting stats lag behind. He looks the part of a worth specimen to play in a Mike Trout led outfield, and you can bet he’ll hold his own. Keller’s big-league career began ugly with the Pirates last year, but he’s far too talented to continue going down that road. He still has rookie eligibility and should use the lessons from 2019 to establish himself as a very good arm for Derek Shelton’s squad. Postseason: American League- Yankees, Twins, Astros Wild Card – Angels, Rays National League- Braves, Cubs, Dodgers Wild Card – Reds, Nationals ALCS – Twins over Yankees NLDS – Dodgers over Braves World Series – Dodgers over Twins This probably comes off looking like a homer pick, but the Twins showed they’re for real last year. Sure, they didn’t hit in a three-game sample size against New York, but this is a team that will win less regular season games and ultimately be better positioned in the Postseason. Both New York and Houston are going to be very good, but losing Severino is a big blow, while the Astros are eventually going to be squashed by the scrutiny. One of the most interesting teams in the AL this year should be the Angels. On the National League side, it’s hard to look away from the talent Atlanta has throughout the lineup. Acuna is established, but I think Albies is the guy that takes another step forward. That division will be tightly contested, but I like Washington more than I’ll ever trust the Mets. Chicago is a complete wild card, and Cincinnati is one of those “won the offseason” clubs. It all comes down to how good the Dodgers are, and the only definition needed there is “very.” Los Angeles has come up short two of the past three years. That ends in 2020 regardless of who is across the diamond. Mookie Betts wasn’t even a necessary addition, but with him in the mix, they’ll be an unstoppable force come October. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

In 2019 Eddie Rosario played 137 games, cracked a career best 32 home runs, and generated MVP votes for the first time in his career. The former top prospect looked solid on the surface, but his career low 1.2 fWAR suggested it was anything but. Where we go from here is the question.If you’ve followed me on Twitter for any length of time, you’ll note that I’ve had a rollercoaster of emotions in regard to the Twins left fielder. He was someone I found myself incredibly high on as a prospect, eagerly anticipating his call up. As a big leaguer he’s been deeply rooted in surface statistics, rarely contributing in more than an individual manner. As we venture into his age-28 season, a merging of all aspects would be more than a great development. Recently Tom Froemming did an amazing job diving into the injury issues that plagued Eddie last season. While it was reported that Rosario dealt with an ankle issue, the magnitude was probably never truly understood. Rocco Baldelli told Twins Daily’s Seth Stohs, “that was a fairly significant injury that he was playing with last year. I can't say that at any point during the regular season last year that he was 100 percent running around out there.” With that in mind, it stands to reason a rebound solely due to health would be in store. What’s more for Rosario is that there’s been a steady decline across the board for the past three seasons. After posting an .836 OPS in 2017 he dropped to .803 in 2018 and .800 last season. He’s remained the same free-swinging player he always has been, making a bit more contact, but generating a career worst 46% chase rate. Those, at least to a certain extent, are isolated issues from injury. So why should we believe he turns things around? Well, again, it starts with health. If Rosario is back to 100%, he’s working with a more athletic profile. In 2015 he posted a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed. That season he ripped off 15 triples and a career best 9 DRS. He was down at least a 0.5 ft/sec to a full 1.0 ft/sec in recent seasons. Pressing in the outfield may also have translated to the plate. After debuting with strikeout rates up near 25%, he’s dropped that all the way to a career best 14.6% in 2019. That falls in line with his whiff rates as well, but that’s where the good news ends. Rosario’s chase rate spiking, alongside a career high contact rate last season, is indicative of a Willians Astudillo-esque approach. The K/BB inputs aren’t as exaggerated, but the reality is he’s executing on poor pitches too often. Should a return to 2017 plate discipline take place (and that’s a big ask in dropping chase rate 10%), Eddie’s batted ball profile is as good as it’s ever been. He posted a career best 39% hard hit rate last year, yanked the ball nearly 50% of the time, and was in the air 42.2% of the time. As a lefty he’ll need loft to clear the Target Field wall in right, but 328 down the line is the quickest way to exit the stadium. There’s work to be done here for sure, but a guy entering his prime should not be in over his head when it comes to execution. Projection systems are on board with a slight rebound as well. ZiPS has Rosario at 1.9 fWAR in 2020, while Steamer sees him at 2.2 fWAR. Neither of the OPS marks represent career highs, but the further he can clear the .800 bar the better. Assuming injury was a key part of the defensive setbacks, a return to positive DRS marks makes sense. He consistantly contributes with his arm in terms of assists, but too often Rosario was looking to make a spectacular play with the throw in response to a miscue with the route or glove. At the end of the day it’s hard to scoff at a guy who put up 32 dingers and 109 RBI in one of baseball’s best lineups. He did it while batting cleanup though and left so much more on the table in all facets of the game. Rather than being enamored by somewhat hollow surface numbers, hoping Rosario’s clean bill of health takes him to the next level in a less pressure-filled role this season could be a get Minnesota didn’t know they’d be getting. It’s a pretty big swing year for Eddie, and the guy who once had me in awe as a prospect could again produce at a level that makes him more than just a fan favorite in Twins Territory. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Obviously it'd be ideal for Odo to be both lights out and go 7 innings a game. I think what I'm getting as impact being felt in different ways. Every team in baseball wants an ace, but only 8-10 of them exist. If he's lights out 30 times and turns it over to the pen a bit early, I'm all for him taking another step forward.

Far too much emphasis is put on this. In 2019 the average starter went 5.4 innings per outing. Jake Odorizzi averaged 5.3 innings per outing. Suggesting you'd want to see diminished performance in exchange for length is ultimately suggesting a desire for less positive outcomes. Shutdown bullpens are a thing because specialization in high leverage matters, and hitters are good enough to hurt you seeing your stuff three times in a night.

Despite an opportunity to hit the open market after the 2019 season, Jake Odorizzi returned to the Twins on a $17.8 million qualifying offer. It ended up being below market value and could be even more of a coup if Odorizzi continues trending towards the impact arm this rotation covets. One of the best moves the new regime has made since taking over was flipping middle infield prospect Jermaine Palacios to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for Odo. Palacios is 23 years old, still at Double-A, and hasn’t posted an OPS north of .600 since 2017. Jake meanwhile had a career year in 2019, has wholeheartedly embraced data, and could be on the verge of a next step the pushes him into the upper echelon. Coming off his first All-Star appearance in 2019, Odorizzi posted a 3.51 ERA bolstered by a 3.36 FIP. His 10.1 K/9 was nearly two notches above his career norms, and his 1.208 WHIP was the lowest it’s been since 2016. Despite the Bugs Bunny baseball, the fly ball specialist posted a career low 0.9 HR/9. His 45% career fly ball rate translated into a career low 3.5% HR/FB ratio despite a career high 42% hard hit rate. How did all that come together? Well, Jake made some key strides in other areas obviously. His 93-mph average velocity was nearly two ticks up from 2018. At 29-years-old, he was adding oomph, and he’s been an early adopter of new technology. With that heavier fastball he was able to post a 12.7% whiff rate (career best) and batters made contact just 74% of the time against him. Assuming consistent gains is an inexact science. While peak performance falls along different places on a bell curve, Odorizzi’s age 30 season should drop within the realm of peak performance. Looking for competitive advantages as he has been vocal about doing, alongside an infrastructure designed to push the envelope, there should be a perfect storm for Odorizzi and Wes Johnson to marry. ZiPS projects Odorizzi to be right in line with Jose Berrios at the top of Minnesota’s rotation. His 109 ERA+ would lead the team among players on the Opening Day roster, and a 9.5 K/9 suggests a belief in 2019 performance. A 4.09 ERA would be a step backwards, but the 4.02 FIP holds a level of consistency across the board. Ultimately Jake has put together back-to-back seasons with a 3.00 ERA just once in his career, and the later was a step off the former. At this point though, I think it’s safe to say we’re dealing with a redesigned set of inputs. Add in the fact that Odorizzi is once again pitching for a contract working on just a one-year deal and squeezing more out of that next opportunity is a very clear goal. I think you can make a very easy argument that the Twins have a great level of starting pitching depth overall. The focus has always been on acquiring or developing the top tier arm. It’s assumed that Jose Berrios would embody that reality, and that’s a good bet, but Jake Odorizzi being right there with him seems equally as promising. Zack Wheeler was the guy everyone understandably looked the part of a projectable arm entering this winter. Minnesota brought back the guy that outpitched him and has plenty of momentum in his corner as well. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Everyone knew the Minnesota Twins were looking for starting pitching. Their goal was an impact arm, and they very well may have found that in a guy who hasn’t posted an ERA above 4.00 since 2014. The caveat? He’s a 40-year-old coming off injury. Rich Hill is just different though, right?Here’s the thing, Rich Hill is not your average 40-year-old. Not only does he have a laugh-inducing nickname, but this isn’t his first rodeo. Over the course of his whole career, he’s pitched north of 130 innings just three times (twice coming since 2017) and has been under 60 innings in nine of his 15 big league seasons. Obviously, durability is not his forte, but it’s made up for significantly in terms of ability. Pitching 58.2 innings last season for the Dodgers, Hill tallied a 2.45 ERA (although he did have a 4.10 FIP) and 11.0 K/9. He’s pitched 53 career innings in the Postseason and owns a 3.06 ERA across that stretch. With the Twins angling for a World Series, his three appearances on the grandest stage should also come in handy. So, there’s lot of great results when he’s on the mound, but how do you project a guy of his age coming off a surgery on his throwing elbow? He’s slowly moving through his throwing program, and he’s yet to progress time on a mound. Expected back sometime over the summer, there’s plenty of variables yet to play out. The track record can certainly give us some indications, however. The last time Hill missed substantial time was in the 2015 season pitching for the Boston Red Sox. He made just four starts tallying 29 total innings before hitting the shelf. Returning in 2016 for the Oakland Athletics, he posted a 2.25 ERA across 17 starts (76.0 IP) with a 10.7 K/9 before being dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers and putting up even better results. From his time with the Red Sox all the way back to his debut in 2005, Hill accounted for exactly 500 innings. Rather than generating a total that healthy pitchers would reach in three seasons, Hill spanned a decade. Since shaking those substantial ailments Hill has average 109 innings per season and owns a 3.00 ERA across 83 games (82 starts). Attempting to be predictive of the human body, especially from my seat, isn’t anything that I’ll tie a certainty to. What we can see is that Rich Hill has been through this process tirelessly, has performed at his highest-level post injury, and has dealt with similar elbow issues before. Download attachment: Capture.PNG Throwing his fastball an average of just 90.6 mph, Hill’s ability revolves around the spin he generates on the baseball. He avoids hard hit rates because the ball dances around the bats of opposing hitters. Baseball Savant illustrates a very pretty description of how he makes it work, and very few of those inputs are traditionally tied to significant arm stress. In short, if there’s a type of pitcher that you’d bet on coming back from injury and dominating, Rich Hill is probably the poster child. He’s got very little tread wear on his arm, he’s been through this all before, and the way he attacks should be outside of the realm typically diminished by procedures. Sure, the Twins won’t have him out of the gate, but if he can through 70 innings down the stretch and in October at a level he’s proven accustomed to, this is as good of a get as anyone. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Prior to the 2019 season the Minnesota Twins took a chance on Michael Pineda. They paid him for the 2018 season with the intention of monitoring and directing his rehab. He rewarded them to the tune of a 4.01 ERA over 26 starts last year and was an anchor during a run to the Postseason. Once again in 2020, they’re taking the chance. After signing another two-year deal, this one doubling the previous pact, the Twins will be without Big Mike’s services for the first couple of months. After being reinstated from suspension (for an unapproved diuretic) he’ll return as a back-end starter for Rocco Baldelli’s staff. It remains to be seen how he’ll have been prepared to hit the ground running, but the hope would be that he picks up where he left off. The 4.01 ERA and 4.02 FIP are not all that noteworthy for the former Yankees starter, but it’s what he did down the stretch that jumps off the page. After owning a 5.34 ERA through his first 12 starts, he found a groove and turned a corner. Over his final 14 starts, from June 13 through September 6, Pineda posted a 2.96 ERA while allowing a .650 OPS against. He chalked up an 87/17 K/BB ratio and Minnesota went 10-4 in the contests he started. There was no denying his loss was a crushing one, as he appeared as a possible answer to the question of who would start game one of the ALDS. Once he returns this year, it will be in a very similar scenario. He’ll slot in behind the established top three, and he’ll be looked at as an addition as opposed to the necessary stopper. Minnesota would certainly love to see better than the 5.00+ ERA over his first handful of starts, but the rule won’t be how he finished either. Assuming that the Twins begin the year with Homer Bailey and Jhoulys Chacin at the back end of the group, they’ll be tasked with keeping the seats warm until someone is ready to step in. There’s no reason to believe they can’t outpitch their expectations but having someone like Pineda to fall back on is a major boost for the Twins. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have created an infrastructure that enhances development. We saw the emergence of unexpected arms like Devin Smeltzer and Randy Dobnak contribute a year ago. That can still take place in 2020, all while having proven veterans going out to do their thing. There’s no reason to believe starts will be spread across any less than 10 players, and top loading the second ground with the efforts Michael Pineda is coming off must be viewed as a major win. Results are never guaranteed, and he’ll still need to go out and make it happen, but a second go-round with Pineda seemed like an ideal situation for everyone involved. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Archives has definitely grown on me. I saw it as "busy" originally, but have come around.

At the 2018 trade deadline the Minnesota Twins moved Ryan Pressly to the Houston Astros. The decision came with much consternation among fans and moving an arm that had become among the best in the game seemed ill-advised. Now with a top-tier bullpen, two near arms could be ready to make that leap into a similarly elite category.Often on Twitter from 2015-2017 I found myself banging a drum that Ryan Pressly was the next great arm out of the Minnesota bullpen. He’d scuffled plenty, and the numbers weren’t glowing, so there was always plenty of pushback. His 2017 was especially mediocre, but there was another level to be achieved. In 2018 he raced out to a 3.40 ERA across 47.2 IP but was backed by a 2.47 FIP and 12.8 K/9. By all intents and purposes, he’d arrived. The Twins, not being in an immediate place of contention, made a difficult but logical decision. They cashed in on a reliever and sent him to Houston. He went on to post a 0.77 ERA in his final 23.1 IP and then followed it up with a 2.32 ERA last season. The Astros deserve credit for taking him to heights Minnesota was not previously equipped to accomplish, but the ability was always there to mold. Now with what finished as the third best bullpen in baseball during the 2019 season, and a group that could vie to be the best in 2020, there’s two arms that jump out as potential suitors to take that next Pressly-esque step. Trevor May – 2019 Stats 2.94 ERA 3.73 FIP 11.1 K/9 3.6 BB/9 The gaming celebrity is now 30 and already an established veteran for the Twins. He’s a free agent following this season, and despite the already glowing ERA, there’s reason to believe another level is possible. May worked around some additional trouble last year, having a FIP nearly a full point higher. Although he decreased his hit and HR rate, he doubled his walk rate and got away from the glowing 1.8 BB/9 mark he set in 2018. Under the hood is where things get exciting for Trevor. His 34.8% hard hit rate was the lowest he’s posted as a reliever, and his 95.9 mph average velocity isn’t far off from adding two full ticks to his fastball. This is an age that relievers should see a decline in their abilities. But May, having fewer miles on his arm, could be gaining benefit from that past lack of use. Wes Johnson has him throwing absolute darts, and there’s room for a slight rebound in strikeout and whiff rates. He’s probably close to a finished product, but as the Twins invest in technology and May incorporates it, even a slight tweak could have him in the conversation for a top ten pen arm. He’s also all in on one series being more exciting than the rest. Zack Littell – 2019 Stats 2.68 ERA 3.62 FIP 7.8 K/9 2.2 BB/9 Acquired by the Twins when Derek Falvey flipped Jaime Garcia to the New York Yankees, Littell has long looked the part of an intriguing arm. He wasn’t ever going to be a top of the rotation starter, but the floor has never looked anything but promising. After being moved to the bullpen full time a year ago, it seemed Minnesota was ready to unleash what had quickly been established as a weapon. Utilizing his fastball nearly 50% of the time, he too saw a near 2 mph jump on the pitch. Now averaging 94 mph, his whiff rate nearly doubled, and the chase rate rose 10%. Just 24-years-old, Littell is still settling into a relief role after a pro career of starting. His strikeout rate hasn’t seen the substantial jump yet, but I’d be on it coming. Phil Miller of the Star Tribune recently wrote about Littell changing up his offseason, essentially shifting towards a more intentional path towards development. He had produced some eye-popping numbers last season on what largely derived from talent and ability. Embracing data and generating actionable outcomes could be the thing that takes him to a new level of sustainability. Not all relievers are late bloomers, and Littell looks the part of a guy who’s settled into a role and now is ready to explode. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Heritage has a dual purpose to draw people in. I’d imagine it appeals to the older generation as they see current players on sets they grew up collecting. For me, I never got really into vintage, and I stopped collecting from High School til now (I’m 29) so seeing designs I’ve never touched with current stars is fun.

The annual release of Topps Heritage is upon us. While fancy cards and chrome recreations are all the rage nowadays, there’s no great offering for set collectors than the yearly unveiling of Heritage. A throwback to the 1971 design this year, Topps has collectors looking to add the best new rookies in a nod to yesteryear. Specifically, for the Twins, Topps Heritage is somewhat of a mixed bag to start 2020. There wasn’t much in the way of big-league debuts last season, and Luis Arraez is no longer a rookie chase card. After seeing his first rookie card in 2020 Topps Series 1, Lewis Thorpe gets number two in this set. Heritage is home to the first rookie of former pitcher Brusdar Graterol, and although he’s now with the Los Angeles Dodgers, it should still be a neat opportunity to collect the fireballer. There’s a handful of usual suspects among the base set checklist, and the Twins land four players (Gonzalez, Rosario, Sano, and Kepler) within the 100-card high number short print group. Last season we saw Byron Buxton appear as an action variation card, and until those trickle onto the market within the coming days, we won’t know what to fully expect. Although the point of Heritage is set collecting and nostalgia, there’s always the inclusion of chrome versions for a select number of cards. That checklist is again 100 deep and includes five different parallels. Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, and Jorge Polanco make up the Twins chase cards there. Chrome exclusives can be found in Spring Mega boxes as well, and that expands Twins players to Luis Arraez, Mitch Garver, Willians Astudillo, Jose Berrios, and Miguel Sano. Hits rarely drive a Heritage product aside from key rookies, and there’s nothing of note for Minnesota fans here. There are two throwback autos in Sal Campisi and Tom Tischinski. Worn out subjects Bert Blyleven and Rod Carew also provide some in, while a 1/1 Harmon Killebrew cut can be had. There’s a couple of relics, both jersey swatches and mint coin types to chase as well. As a whole, Heritage is a must rip product for new and old Topps fans alike. I’d have preferred to see a better autograph subject for Minnesota in the set, but maybe there’s an intriguing inclusion or two in High Number later this year. You can find Heritage at hobby stores for roughly $100/box or in multiple retail formats beginning on February 26. Checklist here For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Framing, DRS, receiving, blocking, CS all below average. He played pitcher in the big leagues before getting behind the plate haha.

Defensive metrics are not kind to him

The Minnesota Twins have had just four Cy Young Award winners in their history, and the last came behind the arm of Johan Santana in 2006. Jose Berrios has looked the part of a potential candidate for a couple of years now, and suggested as a dark horse again in 2020, he’s on the cusp of making it a reality.Berrios will turn 26 during the 2020 season, and he’s now played two full seasons in the big leagues. He finished 2019 with a 3.68 ERA and 8.8 K/9. Those numbers include a truly dismal six start stretch from August into September in which he posted an 8.07 ERA and allowed a .971 OPS to opposing batters. Going into that stretch he owned a 2.80 ERA and looked like he was cruising. Much was made of his decreased velocity and declining stamina, something the Twins made a concerted effort to address this offseason. Recently Dan Hayes of The Athletic wrote about Berrios’ offseason and the ways in which he hopes it helps to alter his 2020. Recovery was a big focus for the Puerto Rican this winter and figuring out how to sustain his performance throughout the whole season was a must. Utilizing everyone from pitching coach Wes Johnson to trainer Ian Kadish, there was an overhaul of his offseason regimen. Berrios is known as a workout warrior, and he didn’t give up that title, but modifications in hopes of avoiding that August slide made sense. Right now, oddsmaker Bovada has the Twins ace at 18/1 to win the American League Cy Young. That is 12th best among those listed and behind names like Mike Clevinger and Corey Kluber. A year ago, Berrios finished 7th in terms of fWAR in the American League. His 4.4 fWAR was a career best, and a nice leap from the 3.1 fWAR tallied in the year prior. After Steamer projections saw a step backwards for Berrios last year, both Steamer and ZiPS concur on that point in 2020. Projecting a 4.48 and 4.17 ERA respectively, he’d be well off the 3.68 mark of 2019 and well out of any conversation for a Cy Young Award. ZiPS does see an uptick in terms of K/9, generating 9.14 in 2020. It would seem odd that Berrios regress during his age-26 season, a period in which his prime should be considered. However, despite a 3.85 FIP last year, he had a gaudier 4.32 xFIP. I wrote up this exact same type of piece a year ago and ended it by saying, “I don’t know if I’m ready to get on board with Berrios winning a Cy Young just yet, but 2019 could certainly provide a strong foundation as the point looked backed upon that everything just clicked.” I feel like that’s where we are now and have a jumping point to watch this coming to fruition. Being deemed the best pitcher in the league is quite a significant feat, but he’s hovered around that conversation for a while now. We won’t know what dividends the offseason routine changes make until regular action gets underway. With Johnson and Kadish’s oversight though, he was positioned about as well as Minnesota could hope. Removing that six start stretch from the 2019 numbers would’ve provided Berrios the first votes of his career. I’d bet on them coming in 2020, and how many really is the only thing left up for debate. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Ehhh...I think this type of thing is thrown around a bit too often. There's volatility anywhere, but the experience on Twitter is what you make it. There's no better outlet for news than what you can gain from the immediate nature of Twitter.

I’d caution that his numbers suggest he could be on the verge of much more. While he may be blocked in MN, his value goes up if his production does as well.

This goes back to ability over purpose. There’s less than a 0% chance Marwin doesn’t make the Twins roster. Astudillo fits into the redundancy category with him, but his flexibility could be viewed as more beneficial than the ability of Cave. That’s where he’d get the spot even if he doesn’t deserve it.

This is where I think Astudillo makes more sense, and you hit it on the head. From a pure talent and ability perspective, it's Cave. Astudillo is the better fit though.

My last Opening Day roster projection (version 2.0) was put out on February 10th. Not much has changed since then, and I feel good about what I came up with. The end of the position players come down to a two-way battle in my mind, and that would be between The Turtle and Rake Cave. After jumping into relevance during 2018, Astudillo came back to earth a year ago. Cave was acquired in exchange for Luis Gil and has served in an adequate fourth outfielder role since. Now entering 2020 with one of the best rosters in baseball, it will be about production and function when considering who will grab that coveted 26th roster spot. Let’s get to the tale of the tape. What Does Willians Do Well? When considering the functionality of Astudillo, you’d be hard pressed not to immediately notice his flexibility. No, not in terms of limberness, but in the sense of positional opportunity. Over the past two seasons he has played six different positions each year and calling him a primary anything may be a stretch. On top of being able to move him all over the diamond, there’s his ability to put the round bat on the round ball. He’s got 301 major league plate appearances and has struck out just 11 times. That 4% strikeout rate is in line with the 3% mark he set in the minors over 2,500 plate appearances as well. In a league dominated by power, commanding the zone to that extent is a feat in and of itself. What Doesn’t Willians Do Well? This is where strengths also become weaknesses for the artist famously known as La Tortuga. Rocco Baldelli is afforded the ability to play Astudillo all over the diamond, but defensive metrics suggest it’s not an opportunity he should be excited about. He’s a below average catcher, small target at first base, poor at third, and substantially stretched in the outfield. He’s a utility player in that he “can,” but the utility is lost in thinking whether he “should.” Also, about that strikeout rate. Last season Astudillo’s swing tendencies were exploited to the tune of a dismal .678 OPS. He still didn’t strike out at all, but because he doesn’t take walks either, he’ll never be a strong OBP guy. He has a very good ability to hit the ball, but a poor ability to discern what pitches he should be attacking. A 40% ground ball rate and 30% hard hit rate aren’t going to result in many positive outcomes. Aggressiveness works against him for the most part and opposing pitchers have exploited it. What Does Cave Do Well? Andrew Thares recently did a great job breaking down Jack Cave over at Twins Daily. His 2019 was exponentially better than starting outfielder Eddie Rosario, and he played a key role after Byron Buxton went down. Finishing with an .805 OPS in 72 games, Cave posted a .296/.377/.556 slash line over his final 50 games (39 starts 142 AB). He certainly fans plenty but doubling his walk rate to nearly 10% was a good adjustment. In the field Cave is limited to just the grass, but he contributes in all three positions. Although he’s an average at best outfielder, it’s not as though he’s a liability. Centerfield is not the place you’d want to put him, but he’s plenty adequate on the corners. Given the volatility involved with Minnesota’s starting centerfield option, the ability to cycle players through makes a good amount of sense. What Doesn’t Cave Do Well? I’m not sure Cave’s greatest hinderance is that there’s something he doesn’t inherently do well on his own as much as it’s the hand he’s currently being dealt. He’s a fourth outfielder on a team that has one of the better outfields in all of baseball. Although Eddie Rosario could be replaceable, that doesn’t appear to be a blueprint that will happen internally at the moment. On top of that, acquisitions in the infield have made Marwin Gonzalez more of an outfielder (a role he has been defensively superior at) pushing Cave further down the ladder. From a personal contribution standpoint, Cave does have some opportunity for growth in terms of contact rate. He’s just below 70%, and given the 52% hard hit rate in 2020, more bats on balls is a good thing. He owned a .358 BABIP despite just a .258 average. Sure, the counting numbers aren’t there yet but that could turn quick. At the end of the day, I think there’s little argument to be made that Cave isn’t the better player of the two. What this could come down to is the more ideal positional fit, and right now, Astudillo has that working in his favor. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Going into the 2019 season just about every outlet had the Minnesota Twins as a clear second place finisher in the AL Central. They were an up and coming story, but not yet ready to break through. I found myself disagreeing with that and suggested they’d win the division. In 2020, it happens again.Rewind to this time last year and just about every projection system had a good but not great view of Minnesota under first-year manager Rocco Baldelli. PECOTA tabbed the Twins for a .500 record, while the Sporting News’s panel had them registering 83 wins. In 2020 PECOTA calls the Bomba Squad odds-on favorites to win the division tallying 93 victories. The result looks correct, but I’ll take aim at the final records and results within the shifting Central. 1. Minnesota Twins 98-64 (93-69*) Last year I characterized the Twins position by saying “no team has done more in the division to take strides forward.” That may not hold true in comparison to the Chicago White Sox for 2020, but Minnesota was a substantially better squad to begin with. They don’t need to win 101 games this time around, but they won’t be any less dominant. Josh Donaldson makes the lineup look like the best in the game, and Kenta Maeda provides stability to a deep rotation. They’ll add down the stretch if need be, and there’s bottom feeders to still pick on. Expecting a slight slide from Cleveland, wins won’t be hard to come by. 2. Cleveland Indians 85-77 (86-76*) It looked like Cleveland would take a step back last year, but it wasn’t quite as substantiated as I may have expected. Gone are both Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer. The outfield has more questions than answers, and Francisco Lindor could conceivably be on his way out at any time. As has always been the case, the rotation will remain a threat, and you can bet they’ll develop another arm or two that will make an impact. The Indians should be competitive, but I don’t think the second Wild Card is coming from this division, and the dive off the deep end could be immediate here. 3. Chicago White Sox 84-78 (83-79*) Easily viewed as the darlings of the offseason, the White Sox did a ton to add talent on the 26-man roster. With internal pieces beginning to mature, it made sense to supplement. Yasmani Grandal is a massive get for them, but that’s really where the talent additions cease to outweigh the names. Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Keuchel are known commodities, but neither fit real well as ground ball pitchers in front of a poor defense. Nomar Mazara isn’t a good defender, and his corner partner Eloy was rough during his rookie year. Luis Robert could certainly be the real deal out of the gate, but the Southsiders seems to be looking for a lot from Nick Madrigal. Lucas Giolito put together a nice half-season, and Michael Kopech will factor in, but it’s actually Reynaldo Lopez I may be most intrigued by. This is a squad worth watching, and they’ll make some noise, but this is much more the 2017 Twins than it is the 2019 version. 4. Kansas City Royals 61-101 (68-94*) Things get ugly in a hurry here at the bottom of the AL Central. Kansas City won just 59 games a year ago, and they did very little in terms of adding talent. Whit Merrifield is a star, and Jorge Soler broke out, but the roster is really void of much else. Maikel Franco is a dart throw at third, and retaining 36-year-old Alex Gordon is more nostalgia than anything else. Maybe Salvador Perez returns from a missed 2019 and is a threat, but then again he’s never been much of a bat anyways. The Royals could easily bring up the rear in the division, but I’ll give them the benefit of doubt that they keep some of the gap established between them and Detroit a year ago. 5. Detroit Tigers 55-107 (69-93*) Across baseball in 2019, only the AL Central had two teams lose 100 or more games. That seems near certain to repeat itself in my estimation. Detroit added some veteran talent in Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron to bolster the infield. Miguel Cabrera looks cooked though, and Cameron Maybin probably represents their best free agent acquisition. Matt Boyd looked the part of a staff ace for part of the year, and if he can get back to that at the beginning of 2020, they’d be silly not to move him by the deadline. I like Spencer Turnbull a decent amount, but Casey Mize should show up for this group in the next handful of months. With Mize being potentially joined by Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal, and Alex Faedo this year, fans will have plenty of their future to watch. It probably won’t pan out much better immediately, but they have hope. *Designates 2020 PECOTA projection as of February 17, 2020 MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article