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Everything posted by Ted Schwerzler
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Over the past few seasons there have been more than a few guys signed that have drawn a groan from Twins Territory. What the initial analysis doesn’t take into account is that the Twins have generated a juggernaut in terms of infrastructure, and it's paid dividends in recent seasons. This time around, it’s Matt Wisler looking to generate a return. Early on this winter the front office tabbed former Top 100 prospect Matt Wisler as being worthy of a major league deal. He combined to throw just over 50 innings in the majors last season, and the results generated a 5.61 ERA. Giving up nearly two homers per nine innings, the counting stats were hardly enticing. But then you take a look under the hood. Wisler posted a 4.23 FIP and an even better 3.83 xFIP. His 14.9% whiff rate and 37% chase rate were career highs, and his 11.0 K/9 wasn’t far off from doubling his career averages. The longball has been an issue for a while, but it’s certainly plausible to see what the Twins like. A season ago Wisler had his slider averaging nearly 84 mph (you guessed it, a career high) while flipping it a whopping 70% of the time. He’s abandoned the sinker, went to a four-seam, and became a two-pitch pitcher. In targeting Sergio Romo again for 2020, as well as bringing in Jhoulys Chacin, it seems pitching coach Wes Johnson is looking to tinker with slider-dominant arms. Minnesota is not some sort of a magic cure for the average pitcher, but the infrastructure now in place has produced. Ryne Harper was a 30-year-old rookie when he put up a 3.81 ERA a year ago, and he may be on the outside looking in because of the overall strength shown by the current relief corps. Matt Magill turned sporadic Show time into two consistent years of big-league run. Although he fizzled down the stretch for the Twins, Magill is now in line to be the Seattle Mariners closer after a strong finish. Things don’t always work out the way you plan. Anibal Sanchez was jettisoned after Lance Lynn was signed, and he went on to have a career year with the Atlanta Braves in 2018. Nick Anderson was never given a shot internally and now is one of the best relievers in baseball. The process being in place does not guarantee a no-fault result. What is true though, is that Minnesota can now be seen as a destination for arms to thrive. Maybe Matt Wisler will be a slider-fastball pitcher that can’t keep the pill in the yard and the next step won’t be taken. In a bullpen that should be expected to be among the better units in baseball though, it’s worth finding out if he can’t be a dominant middle relief option and venture down that path under the tutelage of Johnson. We’ve reached the point that assessment of acquisitions shouldn’t be based around what a player was before coming to the Twins organization, but instead what they will become after getting here. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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Jonathan Schoop was signed to play second base for the Minnesota Twins in 2019. I initially was concerned about his lack of on-base skills. He was all but replaced by July, and Luis Arraez emerged as a fan favorite. Now everyone’s favorite pick to win a batting title, can it happen in 2020?Last season Arraez played in 92 games posting a .334 average. While OPS will always reign supreme, it’s the batting average and on-base prowess that draws interest for light-hitting types. Known for his ability to command and control the strike zone, the Venezuelan posted a .399 OBP drawing 36 walks while striking out just 29 times. He hasn’t had larger deficiency between strikeouts to walks than three since 2018 with Fort Myers, and he’s walked more times than whiffing in five of his eight affiliated stops. A career .331 hitter in the minors, his .334 average at the big-league level should hardly be a surprise. Sure, against the best in the game there’s expectation of some regression, but his approach is one that should translate to almost all situations. Power isn’t his thing, and the four homers he hit for the Twins nearly trumped the six he’d launched in 459 professional games previously. Being able to place the baseball and go with pitches he’ll run into some doubles, but he’s more than content utilizing what is offered. From an upward trajectory standpoint, Arraez won’t often find substantial benefit in splits between average and BABIP. Given the process, results often will be earned and seldom stolen. He’s not driving the ball high into the air, but does a good job elevating enough off the ground. A 20-point difference between the two was present last year, and that’s the exact same amount Steamer projections see for 2020. It’s consistent with career norms and means we should have a relatively well-assumed set of expectations. The recipe for success with Arraez is a formula that won’t need tweaking. He hit the ball with what’s designated as medium exit velocities just over 50% of the time and had his soft contact percentage in the doldrums at 12.3% (top 15 in baseball). He utilizes all fields to nearly an exact one-third split, and then we get to his discipline. A 2.8% whiff rate was the lowest in baseball and only 28 qualified hitters expanded the plate more than Arraez’s 26.9% chase rate. From a summarization standpoint, that leaves us in a very good place. Luis Arraez is a contact hitter that is choosy with what he attacks. He executes within himself, has an incredible eye, and has an established track record of not deviating from these norms. The inputs are there to produce a result no Twins player has had since Joe Mauer in 2009. Now, with an award handed to one of hundreds, there’s also going to be a certain component of luck. Take the White Sox' Tim Anderson for example. He captured the American League batting title in 2019 with a .335 average. He entered the year as a career .258 hitter and enjoyed a Danny Santana-esque .399 BABIP. No AL champ has worn the crown with an average south of .330 since Joe Mauer captured his second in 2008 with a .328 mark. Conversely, Christian Yelich has picked up the nod in the National League each of the last two years being at .329 and .326 respectively. It’s hard to prognosticate what bar will need to be cleared in order to win the American League crown in 2020. It’s not outlandish to suggest the number will be at least north of .325. Projection systems have Arraez between .309 and .311 in year two, which could prove correct as opposing pitchers adjust to his abilities. I’m not going to be against a guy that’s cracked the .340 mark in multiple stops however, and certainly not one that debuted as well as he did. Minnesota’s second basemen may not be the favorite, and ultimately 2020 might not wind up being the year, but immediately or in the not-so-distant-future I’d be more than comfortable suggesting it’s a matter of when and not if. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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Last season Arraez played in 92 games posting a .334 average. While OPS will always reign supreme, it’s the batting average and on-base prowess that draws interest for light-hitting types. Known for his ability to command and control the strike zone, the Venezuelan posted a .399 OBP drawing 36 walks while striking out just 29 times. He hasn’t had larger deficiency between strikeouts to walks than three since 2018 with Fort Myers, and he’s walked more times than whiffing in five of his eight affiliated stops. A career .331 hitter in the minors, his .334 average at the big-league level should hardly be a surprise. Sure, against the best in the game there’s expectation of some regression, but his approach is one that should translate to almost all situations. Power isn’t his thing, and the four homers he hit for the Twins nearly trumped the six he’d launched in 459 professional games previously. Being able to place the baseball and go with pitches he’ll run into some doubles, but he’s more than content utilizing what is offered. From an upward trajectory standpoint, Arraez won’t often find substantial benefit in splits between average and BABIP. Given the process, results often will be earned and seldom stolen. He’s not driving the ball high into the air, but does a good job elevating enough off the ground. A 20-point difference between the two was present last year, and that’s the exact same amount Steamer projections see for 2020. It’s consistent with career norms and means we should have a relatively well-assumed set of expectations. The recipe for success with Arraez is a formula that won’t need tweaking. He hit the ball with what’s designated as medium exit velocities just over 50% of the time and had his soft contact percentage in the doldrums at 12.3% (top 15 in baseball). He utilizes all fields to nearly an exact one-third split, and then we get to his discipline. A 2.8% whiff rate was the lowest in baseball and only 28 qualified hitters expanded the plate more than Arraez’s 26.9% chase rate. From a summarization standpoint, that leaves us in a very good place. Luis Arraez is a contact hitter that is choosy with what he attacks. He executes within himself, has an incredible eye, and has an established track record of not deviating from these norms. The inputs are there to produce a result no Twins player has had since Joe Mauer in 2009. Now, with an award handed to one of hundreds, there’s also going to be a certain component of luck. Take the White Sox' Tim Anderson for example. He captured the American League batting title in 2019 with a .335 average. He entered the year as a career .258 hitter and enjoyed a Danny Santana-esque .399 BABIP. No AL champ has worn the crown with an average south of .330 since Joe Mauer captured his second in 2008 with a .328 mark. Conversely, Christian Yelich has picked up the nod in the National League each of the last two years being at .329 and .326 respectively. It’s hard to prognosticate what bar will need to be cleared in order to win the American League crown in 2020. It’s not outlandish to suggest the number will be at least north of .325. Projection systems have Arraez between .309 and .311 in year two, which could prove correct as opposing pitchers adjust to his abilities. I’m not going to be against a guy that’s cracked the .340 mark in multiple stops however, and certainly not one that debuted as well as he did. Minnesota’s second basemen may not be the favorite, and ultimately 2020 might not wind up being the year, but immediately or in the not-so-distant-future I’d be more than comfortable suggesting it’s a matter of when and not if. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Thorpe Thrusting into the Rotation
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
He's got an 11.1 K/9 2.4 BB/9 and 1.203 WHIP in over 115 Triple-A IP -
Thorpe Thrusting into the Rotation
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
He was 101st in 2014 and 91st in 2015 at Baseball Prospectus -
Not all developmental paths are the same, and not all prospects move on a linear path to the major leagues. After being signed as a teenager and briefly generating buzz throughout the system things came to a halt in 2015. Now ready to kick down the door at the major league level, he may be the biggest breakout candidate in 2020. If you don’t know the story, it’s one of stunted development. Tommy John surgery followed by a crazy case of mononucleosis robbed Thorpe of two full seasons. After pitching on August 31, 2014, he was not back in a professional game until May 19, 2017. A lot of growth and maturation took place during that stretch, and since returning to the mound he’s done nothing but impress. His first year back, Thorpe posted a 2.93 ERA and 9.9 K/9 across 83 innings. He followed that up with a 3.54 ERA and 10.9 K/9 at Double and Triple-A during the 2018 campaign. Last year he saw the K/9 jump to a career high 11.1 at Triple-A Rochester, and with the 2.3 BB/9 representing a career low, it was time for big league exposure. Although there were some tough outings in 2019, and the final ERA sat at 6.18 through 27.2 IP, it’s what the rest of the results tell us that remains enticing. Thorpe posted a strong 3.47 FIP and kept up his strikeout rate in the bigs tallying 10.1 K/9. Averaging 91.5 mph on his fastball, this isn’t just a traditional soft tossing lefty with an ability to spin it. He’s predominantly a fastball/slider guy but worked in both a changeup and curveball. With Minnesota having brought in Jhoulys Chacin on a minor league deal, the assumption would be that he has the inside track to crack the 26-man roster as the 5th pitcher. Randy Dobnak, Lewis Thorpe, and Devin Smeltzer will all be in the mix, but I’d imagine their early Triple-A results will line up who gets what opportunity and when. For Thorpe, he has a very strong chance to separate himself from the pack. A former Top-100 prospect, Thorpe’s track record is one that presents a very comforting floor. The ceiling of an ace isn’t there but a guy that can miss bats 12% of the time, expand the zone one-third of the time, and do a good job of limiting hard contact is something any rotation would plug right in the middle. If he’s able to work his way into an opportunity of extended run expecting something like the career results of Michael Pineda, and pop up stretches of Jake Odorizzi, is more than a doable ask. The Twins traded away Brusdar Graterol in part because of their long-term view regarding where his innings would come from. Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic are the pitchers represented on the prospect lists, and both remain starting candidates. Thorpe is the forgotten man in all of this though, and if the steps forward continue with the developmental infrastructure Minnesota has set up, he is primed to make the earliest impact. I won’t put a timeline on where, when, or how long the opportunity will present itself, but when the Southpaw from Down Under dazzles don’t say I didn’t tell you so. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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Today we received the highly anticipated PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus. Put out around this time each year, they are the gold standard among projection systems when it comes to putting a number to teams' win totals. Often there’s an organization or two that feels scorned, but Minnesota is sitting pretty heading into 2020.It should be expected that the Twins would be seen as the odds-on favorite to repeat in the AL Central division. After winnings 101 games a year ago, they got better this offseason and widened the talent gap between themselves and the Cleveland Indians. Although the White Sox were the darlings of the winter, it is expected that they still have a ways to go. Download attachment: Capture.PNG PECOTA sees the AL Central winner crossing the finish line with 93 victories. That would give them a seven-game advantage over the Indians, which is just one game less than they won the division by a year ago. It’s the White Sox that understandably see the largest boost in winning, and while bad, both the Royals and Tigers cross the 60-win threshold. With projection systems it’s important to understand that these values are derived using an algorithm and are produced utilizing multiple inputs. Specifically, for PECOTA, there are three elements to consider. From Baseball Prospectus, you have: • Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors. • Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player's true talent level. • A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players' stats changed over time. In general, that means there’s an assumed amount of variability. The Twins winning the division with 93 wins would be the 50th percentile of their outcomes. As evidenced by the bell curves below, a 100th percentile would have them somewhere near a franchise record of 105 wins. We can also see that it’s both the Indians and White Sox that have the largest amount of volatility on the positive sides of their outcomes. Download attachment: Curve.PNG Relative to the American League as a whole, it’s clear Minnesota is viewed favorably. Trailing only the Yankees (99) and Astros (98), they are on the heels of the best teams in baseball. The National League is understandably looked down upon as a whole. Los Angeles checks in with 103 wins while no other division winner is seen capable of reaching 90. Considering the narrow range of expectations among clubs in both the NL East and Central, it’s fair to believe that no one may run away from the pack. As far as getting to the postseason is concerned, the Twins are given 89.2% odds in that department. PECOTA projected the Twins for 81 wins going into 2019, and the 20 additional they produced on top of that would have advanced beyond their 100th percentile expectation. In short, they are certainly being viewed in a positive light earned through positive performance. Again, these are just projections and using them as hard and fast outcomes doesn’t seem wise. However, if the Twins are to win the division (and they likely will), surpassing that 93-win threshold is a pretty decent bet. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have provided some great pieces for Rocco Baldelli and his staff. The team capitalized on their abilities last year and doing so again should bear more fruit. *Concerning projections totaling 103 games, Baseball Prospectus noted a glitch and the results remaining incorrect due to a caching issue. The win totals are accurate. Full game totals are derived by taking 162 games and subtracting the win column to come up with record. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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It should be expected that the Twins would be seen as the odds-on favorite to repeat in the AL Central division. After winnings 101 games a year ago, they got better this offseason and widened the talent gap between themselves and the Cleveland Indians. Although the White Sox were the darlings of the winter, it is expected that they still have a ways to go. PECOTA sees the AL Central winner crossing the finish line with 93 victories. That would give them a seven-game advantage over the Indians, which is just one game less than they won the division by a year ago. It’s the White Sox that understandably see the largest boost in winning, and while bad, both the Royals and Tigers cross the 60-win threshold. With projection systems it’s important to understand that these values are derived using an algorithm and are produced utilizing multiple inputs. Specifically, for PECOTA, there are three elements to consider. From Baseball Prospectus, you have: • Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors. • Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player's true talent level. • A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players' stats changed over time. In general, that means there’s an assumed amount of variability. The Twins winning the division with 93 wins would be the 50th percentile of their outcomes. As evidenced by the bell curves below, a 100th percentile would have them somewhere near a franchise record of 105 wins. We can also see that it’s both the Indians and White Sox that have the largest amount of volatility on the positive sides of their outcomes. Relative to the American League as a whole, it’s clear Minnesota is viewed favorably. Trailing only the Yankees (99) and Astros (98), they are on the heels of the best teams in baseball. The National League is understandably looked down upon as a whole. Los Angeles checks in with 103 wins while no other division winner is seen capable of reaching 90. Considering the narrow range of expectations among clubs in both the NL East and Central, it’s fair to believe that no one may run away from the pack. As far as getting to the postseason is concerned, the Twins are given 89.2% odds in that department. PECOTA projected the Twins for 81 wins going into 2019, and the 20 additional they produced on top of that would have advanced beyond their 100th percentile expectation. In short, they are certainly being viewed in a positive light earned through positive performance. Again, these are just projections and using them as hard and fast outcomes doesn’t seem wise. However, if the Twins are to win the division (and they likely will), surpassing that 93-win threshold is a pretty decent bet. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have provided some great pieces for Rocco Baldelli and his staff. The team capitalized on their abilities last year and doing so again should bear more fruit. *Concerning projections totaling 103 games, Baseball Prospectus noted a glitch and the results remaining incorrect due to a caching issue. The win totals are accurate. Full game totals are derived by taking 162 games and subtracting the win column to come up with record. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Projecting the Twins 2020 Opening Day Roster 2.0
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
Right. This isn't necessarily what I would do, it's what I believe the Twins will do based on the information we have right now.- 10 comments
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Projecting the Twins 2020 Opening Day Roster 2.0
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
Typically these minor league deals have opt outs near or around Opening Day allowing for immediate clarity.- 10 comments
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Projecting the Twins 2020 Opening Day Roster 2.0
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
It's a minor league deal so they don't need to immediately make a 40 man move. He'll be given every opportunity to make the 26 man opening day roster.- 10 comments
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Projecting the Twins 2020 Opening Day Roster 2.0
Ted Schwerzler posted a blog entry in Off The Baggy
The last stab I took at this was on January 20th. There haven’t been many moves since then, but the ones that have been made are absolutely monumental. While I felt good about where that version of the Twins was, it’s undeniable they are much better off now. Putting out one final projection prior to Spring Training getting underway, here’s where I see things as of today. Projection 1.0 Catchers (2) – Mitch Garver, Alex Avila No change here. These two are locked in and ready to go. Garver will need to stave off some expected regression, but he’ll also be dealing with an expanded workload. If Willians Astudillo pushes his was onto the roster, I don’t see the playing time coming behind the plate. Infield (5) – Miguel Sano, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson. Ehire Adrianza Another position group with no change. Donaldson punctuated the offseason when Minnesota signed him to the 4th biggest deal handed out this winter. This group will need to take a step forwards defensively, and I’m confident that they should be able to. Outfield (5) – Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Marwin Gonzalez, Jake Cave More status quo here. The final position spot comes down to Jake Cave or Willians Astudillo for me, and I don’t see the utility of Astudillo being a net positive. He’s below average everywhere, while Cave can handle the bat and play all three outfield positions. The infield is more stable this season, and although Marwin should spend most of his time in a corner outfield spot, he’s the utility guy you feel comfortable about moving around. Designated Hitter (1) – Nelson Cruz Yes, still here to hit bombas. Rotation (5) – Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey, Jhoulys Chacin This is the group that has seen the most change. Chacin was signed to a minor league deal, and while 2019 was awful, he was great in 2018. If the Twins see signs of that at all during the spring, they’ll have picked up a very solid 5th starter. I like the long-term ability of Lewis Thorpe, and both Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer have looked strong, but they all have options remaining. Now adding a bonafide stud in Kenta Maeda, this is a group that should be plenty capable of racing out to a second straight division title. Bullpen (8) – Taylor Rogers. Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffey, Tyler Clippard, Zack Littell, Matt Wisler, Cody Stashak This group stays the same as I had it in round one, but that was prior to Minnesota designating Brusdar Graterol a reliever. He absolutely would have been on the roster, but instead was used to swing the deal for Maeda. Coming off a 2019 that saw this group finish as the third best unit in baseball, they’ve added some very quality pieces to make another run at the top. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz- 10 comments
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Bye, Bye, Boston…and Brusdar
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
I'm going to disagree from a conceptual basis. I don't believe you grade the offseason on how the performance shakes out during the year. The front office deserves the highest grade for the talent they brought in.- 3 comments
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In the end, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine stood strong. After originally agreeing to a one-for-one swap of Brusdar Graterol for Kenta Maeda, things needed to be tweaks after the Red Sox decided against the Minnesota prospects medicals. Two days before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, we got resolution. The Twins wound up not dealing with Boston at all, instead sending Graterol to the Dodgers (who had no problem with his medicals). They got Maeda, $10 million, and a yet-to-be announce prospect. Sweetening the deal just a bit, Luke Raley (who was acquired with Devin Smeltzer in the Brian Dozier trade) goes back to Los Angeles, and Minnesota sent the Dodgers their Comp B pick (67th overall). Obviously the one-for-one version of this deal was the most ideal for the Twins. It’s likely why they agreed in the first place, and assumedly why Boston decided they needed to reassess things. However, Minnesota moved a very good arm they believe is ticketed for relief work, in order to get a top-50 starter that could slot in right behind Jose Berrios in the starting rotation. Losing Raley isn’t the top 10 prospect situation that Boston was demanding, and while he’s a nice player, this isn’t an outfield he was going to crack given what’s established and who’s ahead of him. Getting the cash is hardly inconsequential as well. Maeda is guaranteed just $12.5 million over the course of his deal, and being on the hook for just $2.5 million of that is a nice situation to be in. Incentives drive the price up plenty, but being performance base, they’re benchmarks the Twins would happily see come to fruition. I dissected this swap when the news originally broke, and nothing changes for the Twins from a roster construction point now. They still have a very good bullpen, this rotation is substantially better, and there’s still significant prospect capital to make more moves when deemed necessary. Through all of this the only real loser is the former Twins fireballer. Graterol watched his name be drug through the mud in a very public way despite showing no indications of immediate injury concern. Instead of believing he could go down the street, he’ll now hop a plane from Fort Myers to Glendale beginning his 2020 season with a new organization. Chaim Bloom landed some very solid prospects despite packaging a superstar into a salary dump. The Dodgers net a pitcher in Price that is more than desirable if healthy, and arguably the second best player on the planet in Mookie Betts. Minnesota never needed to be involved in any of this, and at the end of the day they really weren’t. An opportunity arose to get their impact starter two days before camp opens, and the front office jumped at it. Now I think we can put a bow on this offseason and commend both Falvey and Levine for orchestrating what boils down to a solid “A” effort.
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When the Minnesota Twins became the mystery team in the three-way deal sending Mookie Betts to the Dodgers there was plenty of excitement. That is, until it was determined Brusdar Graterol was the piece going away. There’s a ton to unpack here, but the message from the front office is clear: More can be done.Right now, much of the Graterol swap for Kenta Maeda remains up in the air. The Boston Red Sox are holding up the deal after seemingly being the only people in the room unaware that Minnesota’s hurler had Tommy John and was likely ticketed for relief work. Assuming newly appoint GM Chaim Bloom finds his own feet, things will work out as planned. The Twins clearly didn’t see Graterol as their best pitching prospect, or their third best overall. That should be a reminder the national lists are for public consumption and not utilized in negotiations. With other redundancies on the farm, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine should have near-immediate opportunity to make similar decisions this summer should they so choose. Graterol was tabbed as expendable over the likes of Jhoan Duran or Jordan Balazovic. How they evaluate outfielders and first basemen could ultimately swing moves as well. Right now, both Brent Rooker and Alex Kirilloff look destined to play a first base role at the major league level. Plenty has been made regarding concerns about Rooker’s footwork or adaptation to first, but it’s probably an initiative they’ll heavily push this year. He’s an older prospect at 25, and while he’s always been bat-first, being a DH exclusively would be suboptimal. We’ve seen Kirilloff’s stock slide some over the last year, and despite a down 2019 due to wrist issues, that’s more due to the assumed positional switch as well. First base makes him less impactful than corner outfield, and also puts him in a spot where Minnesota is currently flush with options. I’d certainly be shocked to see him move, but if there’s a big fish to acquire, that’s a nice centerpiece in Minnesota’s back pocket. The outfield is another area in which Minnesota could look to shed pieces. I’d imagine if there was any legitimate interest in Eddie Rosario this offseason, we would’ve seen something take place there. However, Royce Lewis could still be ticketed for the grass, and Byron Buxton’s name has come up in previous discussions. Also, 2019 competitive-balance round, 39th overall, pick Matt Wallner could be an option in a year or two, and the duo of Akil Baddoo or Gilberto Celestino may emerge. The next few months of evaluation should provide clarity. It’s unquestionable that Graterol was a very good asset for Minnesota. Their evaluation determined his future contributions were capped though, and it will be that line of thinking that ultimately determines the next set of decisions. Acquiring a top-three starter like the Twins did in Kenta Maeda is a great move. If there’s another addition that pushes a club this good into a true World Series contender role though, they’ll have bullets to fire from a top-10 farm system. It appears Falvey and Levine have their gun cocked and loaded. They won’t be afraid to pull the trigger. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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When the Minnesota Twins became the mystery team in the three-way deal sending Mookie Betts to the Dodgers there was plenty of excitement. That is, until it was determined Brusdar Graterol was the piece going away. There’s a ton to unpack here, but the message from the front office is clear: More can be done.Right now, much of the Graterol swap for Kenta Maeda remains up in the air. The Boston Red Sox are holding up the deal after seemingly being the only people in the room unaware that Minnesota’s hurler had Tommy John and was likely ticketed for relief work. Assuming newly appoint GM Chaim Bloom finds his own feet, things will work out as planned. The Twins clearly didn’t see Graterol as their best pitching prospect, or their third best overall. That should be a reminder the national lists are for public consumption and not utilized in negotiations. With other redundancies on the farm, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine should have near-immediate opportunity to make similar decisions this summer should they so choose. Graterol was tabbed as expendable over the likes of Jhoan Duran or Jordan Balazovic. How they evaluate outfielders and first basemen could ultimately swing moves as well. Right now, both Brent Rooker and Alex Kirilloff look destined to play a first base role at the major league level. Plenty has been made regarding concerns about Rooker’s footwork or adaptation to first, but it’s probably an initiative they’ll heavily push this year. He’s an older prospect at 25, and while he’s always been bat-first, being a DH exclusively would be suboptimal. We’ve seen Kirilloff’s stock slide some over the last year, and despite a down 2019 due to wrist issues, that’s more due to the assumed positional switch as well. First base makes him less impactful than corner outfield, and also puts him in a spot where Minnesota is currently flush with options. I’d certainly be shocked to see him move, but if there’s a big fish to acquire, that’s a nice centerpiece in Minnesota’s back pocket. The outfield is another area in which Minnesota could look to shed pieces. I’d imagine if there was any legitimate interest in Eddie Rosario this offseason, we would’ve seen something take place there. However, Royce Lewis could still be ticketed for the grass, and Byron Buxton’s name has come up in previous discussions. Also, 2019 competitive-balance round, 39th overall, pick Matt Wallner could be an option in a year or two, and the duo of Akil Baddoo or Gilberto Celestino may emerge. The next few months of evaluation should provide clarity. It’s unquestionable that Graterol was a very good asset for Minnesota. Their evaluation determined his future contributions were capped though, and it will be that line of thinking that ultimately determines the next set of decisions. Acquiring a top-three starter like the Twins did in Kenta Maeda is a great move. If there’s another addition that pushes a club this good into a true World Series contender role though, they’ll have bullets to fire from a top-10 farm system. It appears Falvey and Levine have their gun cocked and loaded. They won’t be afraid to pull the trigger. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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Right now, much of the Graterol swap for Kenta Maeda remains up in the air. The Boston Red Sox are holding up the deal after seemingly being the only people in the room unaware that Minnesota’s hurler had Tommy John and was likely ticketed for relief work. Assuming newly appoint GM Chaim Bloom finds his own feet, things will work out as planned. The Twins clearly didn’t see Graterol as their best pitching prospect, or their third best overall. That should be a reminder the national lists are for public consumption and not utilized in negotiations. With other redundancies on the farm, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine should have near-immediate opportunity to make similar decisions this summer should they so choose. Graterol was tabbed as expendable over the likes of Jhoan Duran or Jordan Balazovic. How they evaluate outfielders and first basemen could ultimately swing moves as well. Right now, both Brent Rooker and Alex Kirilloff look destined to play a first base role at the major league level. Plenty has been made regarding concerns about Rooker’s footwork or adaptation to first, but it’s probably an initiative they’ll heavily push this year. He’s an older prospect at 25, and while he’s always been bat-first, being a DH exclusively would be suboptimal. We’ve seen Kirilloff’s stock slide some over the last year, and despite a down 2019 due to wrist issues, that’s more due to the assumed positional switch as well. First base makes him less impactful than corner outfield, and also puts him in a spot where Minnesota is currently flush with options. I’d certainly be shocked to see him move, but if there’s a big fish to acquire, that’s a nice centerpiece in Minnesota’s back pocket. The outfield is another area in which Minnesota could look to shed pieces. I’d imagine if there was any legitimate interest in Eddie Rosario this offseason, we would’ve seen something take place there. However, Royce Lewis could still be ticketed for the grass, and Byron Buxton’s name has come up in previous discussions. Also, 2019 competitive-balance round, 39th overall, pick Matt Wallner could be an option in a year or two, and the duo of Akil Baddoo or Gilberto Celestino may emerge. The next few months of evaluation should provide clarity. It’s unquestionable that Graterol was a very good asset for Minnesota. Their evaluation determined his future contributions were capped though, and it will be that line of thinking that ultimately determines the next set of decisions. Acquiring a top-three starter like the Twins did in Kenta Maeda is a great move. If there’s another addition that pushes a club this good into a true World Series contender role though, they’ll have bullets to fire from a top-10 farm system. It appears Falvey and Levine have their gun cocked and loaded. They won’t be afraid to pull the trigger. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Topps Series 1 Kicks of Baseball Season
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
There's money to be made in Flagship if you break cases and take time, but I'm like you in that I like to rip some boxes to start off the baseball season and have fun. FWIW, sounds like Hangers are the best bet for parallels and SP in retail this year.- 6 comments
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Derek Falvey and Thad Levine just put an absolute bow on the 2020 Minnesota Twins offseason. After acquiring Josh Donaldson in January, the refrain was whether or not he could pitch. Now nabbing Kenta Maeda from the Los Angeles Dodgers, the answer is yes he can. Across Twins Territory there should be some absolute shock with this one. Not only was the impact-pitching arm acquired, but it absolutely cost an impact prospect. Brusdar Graterol showed up on the Major League scene last summer and brandished his triple-digit fastball. Showing off the bazooka arm, it was hard not to dream on him as a starting prospect. It was apparent that there have been concerns about what Graterol profiles at in the bigs however. He’s never pitched more than 102 innings in a season, and he never worked exclusively as a starter in 2019. The talk going into the year was that Minnesota would unleash him in the pen, and the feeling was he had not yet developed the necessary secondary stuff to make it multiple times through the order. Any time you see a big name prospect like this moved, it’s going to be hard to sift through the feelings. The message from Minnesota here is clear however. The window is open and the front office has kicked down the door. They see Graterol as a reliever long term, and conversely viewed him as the third best option in the up and coming trio including Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran. In Maeda the Twins get their coveted impact arm. He’s soon-to-be 32-years-old and is not a free agent until 2024. He will be paid just $3.125 million per year the rest of his deal, and he’s a strikeout threat pumping double-digits per nine innings. I'm not sure Minnesota viewed the tradeoff like this when the offseason started, but they passed on signing a 30-year-old Madison Bumgarner (with nearly identical numbers) to a five-year deal paying $17 million per season. In comparison, their decision looks pretty good. Although Maeda’s ERA’s haven’t always been glowing, he’s posted a FIP north of 4.00 just once in his four year MLB career. Walks have crept up in recent years, but he generally does a good job avoiding danger. Slotting in behind both Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi, there’s zero reason why he can’t elevate and assume an even large role in the rotation. This move pushes Minnesota’s payroll up above $140 million landing somewhere around $145 million. That’s a nice expansion on the previous record of $128.4 million in 2018, and gives them plenty of flexibility now and in the future. Buckle up Twins fans; we’ve got a contender here. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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While we often find ourselves enamored with the incredible athletic ability of players within the parameters of their sport, we tend to forget other pursuits still exist. The Minnesota Twins employ some really good baseball players, and they are all really interesting people as well. Enter Trevor May and the side hustle that has become a brand.If you Google the Minnesota reliever, the first thing that pops up is a link to his Twitter feed and then it’s his Wikipedia page. There’s a set of questions that starts with “Is Trevor May good at baseball?” and then is quickly followed by “Is Trevor May good at Fortnite?” It isn’t until after those entries that his MLB.com bio makes an appearance. This isn’t some sort of coincidence. The popularity of eSports is into the stratosphere, and May is synonymous with the biggest names in the community. He wore the “IamTrevorMay” moniker on the back of his Player’s Weekend jersey, and it’s certainly his outlet when not at work. I caught up with the Twins fireballer (who did hit 100 mph last season) to talk all things not related to baseball. Twins Daily: Obviously athletes have hobbies off the field, but how did it become gaming for you? Trevor May: I’ve always been a gamer from when I was really young. There were some great games that came out when I had a lot of down time from injuries, so here we are. (Note: May was traded to the Twins prior to the 2013 season. He pitched just 46 innings in 2016 and missed all of the 2017 season rehabbing.) TD: Specifically, what about Fortnite drew you in? TM: All of my friends played it AND I love that it was something completely new to learn and master. Then, factor in that creating content around the game was always fresh and fun; I just couldn’t get enough. TD: Was the goal always to create a brand and generate a business of sorts, or what was your initial goal when hopping on Twitch? TM: I just like to perform and interact with people. Sure, building brands and businesses is also something that I’m really passionate about and like doing, but it began as something just to enjoy doing with my spare time. TD: There’s a ton of big names in the eSports community as well. Do you find yourself getting recognized or approached as Trevor May the pitcher, or the streamer that plays baseball? TM: It’s about 50/50 at this point. That’s so cool to me, that it’s like that now. Best of both worlds, I guess. TD: Was it just natural to gravitate toward some of the other large streamers as your own brand grew? Were those relationships you had previously, or how did you end up meeting some of those guys? TM: Yeah, honestly, the biggest draw was that we’re all very similar. We’re older guys that had a lot of the same gaming experiences through our childhoods. Collaboration is huge in gaming and I’m so happy I met all these great people. TD: Where do you go from here? Is it a look towards the next game, an opportunity to create a revenue stream and business post playing career, or is it all just up in the air and see what happens? TM: I’m more interested in learning to build really great businesses to be honest. I’ll always create content and that is a passion of mine, but my ultimate goal is to build great stuff and be fully my own boss. I’ll podcast, I’ll try radio and broadcast I’m sure, but I really just want to test ideas, try different strategies, and ultimately make a lasting difference in this world. TD: Gaming ends up being a great outlet to step away from whatever else we’re committed to. What about the hobby helps you to release away from the diamond? TM: Well, firstly, my performance doesn’t really matter when I play games. I don’t live or die based on outcomes and that’s just nice sometimes, haha. Also, I get to stay in contact with friends, learn new things, and build that side of my life. Kaizen (Japanese business philosophy of continuous improvement of working practices, personal efficiency) is my motto. It’s all about 1% better, more efficient, every day. You can obviously catch Trevor back on the mound in the coming weeks, but he’ll be hanging out at his Twitch channel in between. Seeing guys like May and former Minnesota pitcher Phil Hughes creating content online is a fun view into the more human side of athletes, and it’s something that the masses are definitely embracing. Next time you’re at Target Field, look and see if you can spot any of May’s new baseball jerseys alongside the #65 with the Twins. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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If you Google the Minnesota reliever, the first thing that pops up is a link to his Twitter feed and then it’s his Wikipedia page. There’s a set of questions that starts with “Is Trevor May good at baseball?” and then is quickly followed by “Is Trevor May good at Fortnite?” It isn’t until after those entries that his MLB.com bio makes an appearance. This isn’t some sort of coincidence. The popularity of eSports is into the stratosphere, and May is synonymous with the biggest names in the community. He wore the “IamTrevorMay” moniker on the back of his Player’s Weekend jersey, and it’s certainly his outlet when not at work. I caught up with the Twins fireballer (who did hit 100 mph last season) to talk all things not related to baseball. Twins Daily: Obviously athletes have hobbies off the field, but how did it become gaming for you? Trevor May: I’ve always been a gamer from when I was really young. There were some great games that came out when I had a lot of down time from injuries, so here we are. (Note: May was traded to the Twins prior to the 2013 season. He pitched just 46 innings in 2016 and missed all of the 2017 season rehabbing.) TD: Specifically, what about Fortnite drew you in? TM: All of my friends played it AND I love that it was something completely new to learn and master. Then, factor in that creating content around the game was always fresh and fun; I just couldn’t get enough. TD: Was the goal always to create a brand and generate a business of sorts, or what was your initial goal when hopping on Twitch? TM: I just like to perform and interact with people. Sure, building brands and businesses is also something that I’m really passionate about and like doing, but it began as something just to enjoy doing with my spare time. TD: There’s a ton of big names in the eSports community as well. Do you find yourself getting recognized or approached as Trevor May the pitcher, or the streamer that plays baseball? TM: It’s about 50/50 at this point. That’s so cool to me, that it’s like that now. Best of both worlds, I guess. TD: Was it just natural to gravitate toward some of the other large streamers as your own brand grew? Were those relationships you had previously, or how did you end up meeting some of those guys? TM: Yeah, honestly, the biggest draw was that we’re all very similar. We’re older guys that had a lot of the same gaming experiences through our childhoods. Collaboration is huge in gaming and I’m so happy I met all these great people. TD: Where do you go from here? Is it a look towards the next game, an opportunity to create a revenue stream and business post playing career, or is it all just up in the air and see what happens? TM: I’m more interested in learning to build really great businesses to be honest. I’ll always create content and that is a passion of mine, but my ultimate goal is to build great stuff and be fully my own boss. I’ll podcast, I’ll try radio and broadcast I’m sure, but I really just want to test ideas, try different strategies, and ultimately make a lasting difference in this world. TD: Gaming ends up being a great outlet to step away from whatever else we’re committed to. What about the hobby helps you to release away from the diamond? TM: Well, firstly, my performance doesn’t really matter when I play games. I don’t live or die based on outcomes and that’s just nice sometimes, haha. Also, I get to stay in contact with friends, learn new things, and build that side of my life. Kaizen (Japanese business philosophy of continuous improvement of working practices, personal efficiency) is my motto. It’s all about 1% better, more efficient, every day. You can obviously catch Trevor back on the mound in the coming weeks, but he’ll be hanging out at his Twitch channel in between. Seeing guys like May and former Minnesota pitcher Phil Hughes creating content online is a fun view into the more human side of athletes, and it’s something that the masses are definitely embracing. Next time you’re at Target Field, look and see if you can spot any of May’s new baseball jerseys alongside the #65 with the Twins. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Twins Rotation Provides Intriguing Depth
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
After today’s report, I’m pretty much out on Walker even on an MiLB deal. His velo is at 86-88. That’s downright terrible. There’s no such thing as a bad MiLB deal, but if he’s that bad right now, he likely won’t be right by his opt outs. It’s also not close to the Pineda situation with that info. Pineda worked on rehab with the Twins and they monitored his progress getting him back. Walker sees himself as ready to go having completed rehab, and his stuff wouldn’t be close to worthy of an MLB shot. He’s closer to being cooked in that scenario than he is valuable.- 8 comments
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Topps Series 1 Kicks of Baseball Season
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
Kepler's manufactured Sleeve Patch relic is a card I'm really interested in seeing this year!- 6 comments
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Topps Series 1 Kicks of Baseball Season
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
Yeah, I end up buying a master team set of the Twins, and then have a ton of dupes. Usually use them for giveaways on Twitter. Nothing I'm personally chasing from the Twins in Series 1, but always rip open a few hobby or jumbo boxes and then do some retail to make a fun night out of it. Grab the rookies, move onto the next product.- 6 comments
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Twins Rotation Provides Intriguing Depth
Ted Schwerzler commented on Ted Schwerzler's blog entry in Off The Baggy
I'd agree that I think Lewis Thorpe is a breakout waiting to happen. Duran and Blazovic aren't going to be blocked when they force there way in. From there, it's up to Chacin and Bailey to show their worth early, with Hill and Pineda supplementing. I fully believe a deal is swung that adds to the Berrios/Odorizzi group by the time the Trade Deadline has passed.- 8 comments
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