Ted Schwerzler

If you’ve played around with the Twins Daily payroll tool at all, you’ve quickly understood one of the swing moves for the offseason relates to how much money is spent on the designated hitter. Specifically, is Nelson Cruz brought back, or is it time to move on? Now new developments make the question even more noteworthy.The Star Tribune’s LaVelle E. Neal is hearing that the DH will revert back to an American League only rule in 2021. Despite the success of the change during the 2020 sprint, this is a change that would need to be collectively bargained and will likely need the 2022 CBA to institute it full time. Disappointing as that is for fans not wanting to see pitchers be automatic outs in the National League, the decision has rippling effects for the Twins. There’s arguably no bigger decision for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to make this offseason than whether they believe Cruz has more production to dole out. At some point the aging process wins out, and unfortunately, it’s not often a gradual process. If Cruz remains consistent, he’s one of the most feared hitters in baseball. If not, he provides no other value outside of clubhouse leadership, and paying him like a coach would be far more beneficial for the sake of payroll expenditures. Thanks to Major League Baseball deciding the National League will go back to pitcher’s hitting for one more year, Nelson Cruz’s free agent suitors have officially been cut in half. All of those National League teams that scrambled to find a DH-bat this year will no longer face that issue in the season ahead. Many of the American League organizations already have that role filled, and that definitely tips the scales in the Twins favor should they want to retain the services of the Dominican star. I still think one of the biggest questions in relation to this offseason is where the buck will cease being passed when it comes to a shortage of dollars. If teams are going to decrease payroll across the board, it would only make sense that players would see paydays being muted as well. While the arbitration process is relatively static, that means guys on the free agent market would be forced into dealing with what the market bears, as opposed to what they’d traditionally find as worth. In a normal situation Nelson Cruz may command something like $15 million per year with a full boat of 30 teams vying for his services. With less than half of that being the reality, and less dollars to go around as a whole, the avenue for him to return may get a bit clearer. Traditionalist or not, it’s disappointing that we’re going to get expanded Postseason and changed rules for extra innings out of this season, but we’ll still see pitchers hitting on a nightly basis despite being well in over their heads. As goofy as that is, maybe it means Minnesota isn’t forced into deciding Brent Rooker is their starting DH out of the gate next season, and if the belief is Nelson can still get it done, having him back would be a must. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

This offseason will be all about Trevor Bauer just like last was about Gerrit Cole. That’s deserved and warranted given his abilities, and the likelihood he’s coming off an NL Cy Young. As much as I’d love to see him in baby blue, another big name might make more sense for the Twins. Enter Marcus Stroman.The former Blue Jays starter didn’t pitch in 2020, and he used some shrewd maneuvering to benefit himself for 2021. Despite a calf tear during Summer Camp, Stroman had ramped up nearly to the point of return for the New York Mets. Having accumulated just enough time to be eligible for free agency in the upcoming offseason, he opted out of the season citing a “collective family decision.” I’m not at all here to question his motives, but good on him for putting his own situation first in a sport that saw owners look to exploit the talent over and over prior to resumption. On the field there’s plenty to unpack with Stroman. He’ll turn 30 in the year ahead and has made a single All-Star Game while generating Cy Young votes just once. He has compiled a career 3.76 ERA and 2019 was arguably his best season as a big leaguer. When healthy Stroman has been an innings eater, and while his career K/9 is just 7.4, he also doesn’t get bit by the long ball or free passes. Download attachment: Capture.PNG What Stroman brings to the table is a very consistent approach. He doesn’t own a big fastball, and the average velocity hovers around 94 mph. His whiff rates have always been right around 9% and he forces the opposition to chase just under one-third of the time. What you’re going to get is very few barreled balls and a ton of ground ball outs. The book on Stroman has read virtually the same for the entirety of his career and it’s why the deal to the Mets made little sense a year ago. New York employed arguably the worst infield in baseball, and predictably Stroman was worse off. He went from a 2.96 ERA and 3.51 FIP with Toronto in 2019 to a 3.77 ERA and 4.15 FIP in the Big Apple. Making sure a pitcher like Marcus is backed by sure handed infielders is imperative. Enter the Minnesota Twins and what 2020 saw them do. Josh Donaldson is a massive upgrade defensively at the hot corner, obviously he needs to remain available there. While Jorge Polanco struggled mightily at the plate, he performed adequately in the field. Luis Arraez was better at second base, and Miguel Sano looks entirely passable at first. In totality the Twins were 10th in baseball in defensive fWAR and 3rd when it came to infield outs above average. The entire aforementioned group will be back, and it’s one capable of supporting a ground ball heavy pitcher. These aren’t the same Twins instructing arms to generate soft contact and allow batters to put the ball on the ground. That said, being able to do so at a high level as Stroman is, allows Wes Johnson an ability to pull more from the rest of his game. It’s hard to imagine a massive overhaul at age-30, but considering his prime, a velocity and strikeout boost even in a slight manner could have Stroman experiencing new heights. 2020 saw Stroman awarded a prorated portion of $12 million through arbitration. His 2019 deal checked in at $7.4 million. He’s going to want a long-term deal, and there’s no denying he’s going to get paid. I’d imagine he’ll be more affordable than Bauer however, and that could make the Twins a serious player for his services. By all accounts it appears that Stroman has been a good clubhouse guy and someone you’d want to have on your team. He’s worn blue previously, knows the northern weather well, and could be Minnesota’s 2021 version of Kenta Maeda. I’m on board with this acquisition, and you’d be hard pressed to make an argument for their not being a fit. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

There is no more frustrating word to me in modern baseball than analytics. I love and fully embrace the new avenues in which we are able to evaluate and prepare in regards to the game of baseball. Unfortunately, boiling it down to a buzzword as “analytics” has become, leads to little more than a quick note suggestive of being well versed in actual understanding. This World Series is about two organizations that are fully capable of turning up their nose at those instances. Let’s not be naïve, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the second highest payroll in baseball for the 2020 season. It’s not as though Dave Roberts’ team is starved for talent. Similarly built organizations like the New York Yankees (1st) and the Boston Red Sox (3rd) find themselves at home, however. One key difference for the Dodgers is talent utilization. On Sunday night, settling in for a game seven against the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles started Dustin May. He was used as an opener with Tony Gonsolin working as the bulk arm. Quickly into the action the broadcast wondered whether that decision came from the manager or the front office. The likely reality is that the answer is simply both. Suggesting that modern evaluation for baseball success is hidden behind computer computations and that the game is played on paper wildly misunderstands analytics. The point isn’t to simply plug in the components of a calculated answer, but instead best position yourself based upon expected outcomes and marry that with the game on the field. Certainly, the Dodgers have paid for their fair share of talent, what they also know is how to best utilize it in order to capitalize on the effectiveness. There’s an incredible amount of nuance when it comes to how teams deploy information. Some quick digging shows that Los Angeles shifted 55% of the time in 2020. That was more than any team in baseball, one of only two organizations to do so more than 50% of the time and was the same standing they were in for 2019. Defensive positioning is just one call out that can reflect a progressive way of playing the game. The reality is that there’s more than one way to squeeze out opportunity in the win column. Take a look at the Tampa Bay Rays for example. They’ve long been considered *the* organization when it comes to deploying competitive advantages through analytical assessments. With the 28th highest payroll in baseball this year, they played to an American League best record and represent the league as the 2nd best team in the sport. Defensive positioning isn’t the way in which Tampa found themselves locking down a competitive advantage in 2020. They shifted just 33% of the time, 19th overall in the game. They didn’t bludgeon their way to being an offensive juggernaut. Hitting just 80 dingers they were only 14th in baseball, but the 9.4 fWAR compiled led to a top 10 offense within the game. The Rays made sure to value outs. In over 4,000 plate appearances this year not once did they sacrifice bunt. Where Tampa put things together in 2020 was on the mound. That’s an interesting revelation because they don’t have a Clayton Kershaw or Gerrit Cole. The Rays made an incredible swap (and partly thanks to Pittsburgh’s poor talent evaluation) in turning Chris Archer into the Tyler Glasnow package. Beyond the man with the hair and Blake Snell though, the Rays rotational is relatively nondescript. Their bullpen, however, is another story. In 2020 the Rays owned the best bullpen in baseball generating a combined 3.6 fWAR. By now you’d hope the names are more widely known, but from Castillo to Anderson, and Fairbanks to Curtiss, it’s a unit made of lockdown arms. What Tampa has done is rely on their own ability to develop arms rather than pay or reach for answers. Aaron Slegers and John Curtiss were castoffs from other organizations, Anderson was targeted in trade as was Fairbanks, and Castillo was internally groomed. What happens in Tampa Bay remains reliant upon open communication and buy-in from everyone involved. Being able to suggest that length from a starter isn’t as necessary as quality. Having the opportunity to deploy any arm at any time or doing away with traditional norms tied to specific roles, those are all instances that numbers back but can’t convey. By understanding how to gain a statistical advantage and then being able to deploy it is where the next stage of the game is taking us. Right now, we’re still too stuck on analytics being some catch-all descriptor, and there’s still a vocal old-guard looking to tear down progression. In all ventures however, the goal is progress. We’re seeing that in this sport, and the World Series will highlight it. This isn’t about a top and bottom spending team. It’s about two organizations that best utilized all of the talent they had at their disposal. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Earlier this week I spent an hour with John Bonnes and Nate Palmer talking through ideas regarding the 2021 Minnesota Twins payroll. Who will go, what they need, and how much they’ll have to spend were all worthy conversations. The one hang up I keep coming back to is, what will the market actually bear?It’s completely tone deaf to suggest that owning a major league sports franchise is a losing business venture, the reality is that revenues won’t be at their traditional levels in 2020. With no fans in the stands organizations have lost out on lucrative ticket sales, concessions, and other traditional operating dollars. Because of this, the assumption is that payrolls across the league will take a step backwards in 2021. What we don’t know if where the ripple effect will end. Free agency and talent acquisition still take place on a competitive market. There are 30 suitors for any one position (as long as the designated hitter remains universal), and varying levels of need and risk factors that come into play. Attempting to land a non-committed player will likely never be as straightforward as a one-way exchange of figures. However, was does reduced cash flow throughout the sport look like, and how does a potential lockout in 2022 impact things further? While doing our Offseason Live show focused on the Twins 2021 payroll, the general assumption is some level of decrease. Without knowing the percentage, we are operating in a world of hypotheticals. It is fair to suggest that a non-tender of Eddie Rosario is probably the most logical cost cutting move to make. The next biggest swing comes in the form of a reunion with designated hitter Nelson Cruz. Likely representative of the Twins big splash for 2021, his price tag won’t be cheap. Where things get interesting is when the market starts to bear fruit. In a normal scenario a guy like Cruz, coming off the season he had, might be looking at something like $14-16 million per year. He wants a two-year deal, and though that’s a fair ask, he’s still going to be 41 years old. Dealing with a new set of parameters, does the market value for all players take a percentage step backwards in relation to that of the payroll? Say a 20% decrease in year over year spend, does that make Cruz’s new best get something like $11-12 million? To me, it’s in that question that we see just how aggressive Minnesota can be in filling their needs. Coming into 2020 with a $140 million commitment, there should be no reason they don’t continue to dole out cash as they supplement a window of opportunity. That can still take place even if it’s in a different form. Maybe they jump from 17th overall in payroll to the top 15. Maybe instead of a 20% cut they only step backwards 10%. Whatever happens, the Twins will need to be ready to pivot and pounce. Right now, the goal should be to start making assessments on what virtually every player will make and be worth. Once the first couple of deals have been made, assess and compare. From there you should have a good idea as to how to approach potential fits and keeping in mind a need for aggressiveness should be at the forefront. Today we can make determinations on what needs are there, and even predict some of the departures. Understanding how to put the puzzle together when we don’t know how many pieces it is will prove tricky. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Pittsburgh Pirates have done a pretty solid job in the Postseason this year. No, the organization is not participating, but Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow are certainly representing them well. The Minnesota Twins should look to swing a deal for the next Pennsylvanian mistake. Enter Joe Musgrove.As a former first round pick, Musgrove is now a part of his third organization. Drafted by the Blue Jays in 2011, he was dealt to the Houston Astros prior to now having spent the bulk of his career with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The career 4.33 ERA doesn’t do much to jump off the page, but as a guy about to enter his age 28 season with two more years of team control, a prime before the breakout could be just the recipe for a strong organization to exploit. Since joining the Pirates in 2018 Musgrove has compiled a 4.23 ERA. In those three seasons however, he’s posted FIP’s of 3.58, 3.82, and 3.42, respectively. The strikeout rates have risen each year going from 7.8 in 2018 to 12.5 in what was a muted 2020 season. He’s generally been a guy that’s tough on free passes, middle of the road when it comes to the longball, and relatively difficult to generate base hits. Download attachment: Musgrove.PNG Taking a look at some of the deeper dive numbers, there’s even more to like with Musgrove. He posted a career best 3.19 xFIP in 2020 while still holding onto a consistent 93 mph average fastball velocity. He gave up a career low 24% hard hit rate this past season and the 48% ground ball rate is plenty productive. Missing barrels is something he’s done often throughout his career and generating a new career high 14.4% whiff rate this season was nice to see as well. Musgrove doesn’t rely a ton on deception. In each of his five big league seasons he’s been right around a 33% chase rate. Rather than forcing batters out of the zone, he’s been able to confuse them within it. Despite the rising swinging strike rates, he hasn’t done it as a by-product of his zone profile. Opposing hitters have generated less overall contact and suffered a career worst contact within the strike zone against Musgrove this past season. Clearly some of the developments Musgrove has experienced are helping take his game to new heights. Seeing what some of his counterparts have experienced when going to more well-regarded organizations, however, begs the question if there’s not more to be unearthed. Minnesota’s brain trust, and the tutelage of Wes Johnson could be the thing that takes him to the highest level. Pitching doesn’t come cheap, and a guy with team control still in arbitration isn’t going to be had for nothing. Expecting the Pirates to continue making the same missteps on the swap front also isn’t a good plan of action. On the basis of its own merit however, finding an amicable deal for both sides is certainly a worthy venture. A lot of how Minnesota sets themselves up for 2021 will be reliant upon what internal decisions the organization makes. After all, the 2020 club was very good and simply fell short of even moderate expectations at the worst time. The turnaround in that performance needs to come from within. On the mound though, there’s now some holes and openings that need to be filled. Addressing at least one of them with an arm this good, and a possibility to be even better, would be a great place to start. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Going into this offseason the Minnesota Twins are going to need a replacement for a couple of backup infielders. Both Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza are free agents, and I’d expect the Twins to move on from both. They served key roles on the active roster however, so seeking out a replacement will be necessary. Marwin was signed under the premise that his 2017 was repeatable, and had they know it was a trash idea, Minnesota likely would’ve looked elsewhere. Adrianza was a glove first guy that performed up to that distinction when getting run with the Twins. In finding an alternative, Rocco Baldelli will need a player that can be an asset when filling in. The reality is that Minnesota has some serious issues when things go awry on the dirt, and we saw that with both Josh Donaldson and Luis Arraez in 2020. Having a backup plan there is a must going into a new season. Marwin and Ehire posted a .606 and .557 OPS respectively, so aside from occupying space, them being in the game was a serious negative. I don’t know that I’m hung up on any one person for their replacements, but there’s definitely a profile I’d like to see. Marwin brought an outfield ability to the utility role, but that should be less necessary with the readiness of Alex Kirilloff and the combined emergence of Jake Cave and LaMonte Wade Jr. To me, the Minnesota utility man has to be able to play both second and third base while also owning a productive bat. Traditionally second base hasn’t been a position of immense offensive production, but that’s shifted in recent years. There are some truly exceptional offensive two-baggers in the game and carrying that profile to a position that needs to contribute offensively at the hot corner, is a very good thing. I don’t want to live in a world where the Twins are sans Donaldson or Arraez for consistent stretches, but they need to be better prepared if they are. So, what are some names to consider? This is actually a decent free agent class if you’re shopping in the middle. It’s not especially noteworthy at the top however, and that could create some additional competition around the mean. Regardless, there’s some names I’d be more than happy to see wearing baby blue at Target Field. Jurickson Profar The former top prospect will be 28 in 2021. He has arguably the most positional flexibility of anyone in the group and that presents a lot to like. He posted a .793 OPS with the Rangers in 2018 and was at .771 this season for the Padres. He’s hardly been the elite prospect that he was billed, but there’s legit power and on-base skills here when he’s going good. If the Twins see a way to unlock another level in what should be his prime, a solid commitment wouldn’t be shocking. Tommy La Stella Traded to the Athletics during the 2020 season, La Stella enters the open market coming off a second straight strong season. His .819 OPS followed an .832 mark as a first time All Star in 2019. He’s primarily played second base but has 84 starts at the hot corner as well. The power potential isn’t a huge draw here, but he did launch 16 dingers in 80 games during 2019. Jose Iglesias A number of years ago Iglesias struck me as an ideal candidate to be the Twins shortstop. He’s a strong defender there and it’s been the only role he’s played since 2015. It remains to be seen whether the downgrade in role is one he’d agree to, but there’s also a good option to spell Jorge Polanco when needed. The .956 OPS in 39 games with the Orioles this year is a definite outlier however, and Minnesota would need to be convinced they’re getting above the .700 career mark. He’s probably a boost on Ehire while being Marwin or worse. Asdrubal Cabrera This one would definitely be just a one-year deal as he’ll be 35 in 2021. Cabrera has been around for a while, having just completed his 14th year in the majors. He won a ring with the Washington Nationals a season ago and took over as the primary second basemen from former Twins great Brian Dozier. Cabrera is more second basemen than he is third but can play both roles. What I like here is that the offensive floor is pretty safe. He’s probably not going to post much lower than a .750 OPS and you’ve got a chance for him to scratch near .800. There’s power, there’s some walks, there’s something to like. Jedd Gyorko I’m not going to write him up as the Brewers have an affordable team option and it’d make little sense for them not to use it coming off the season he just had. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Minnesota Twins signed two long term extensions for current big leaguers back in 2019. One of them was given to German left fielder, Max Kepler. He’s unlikely to be going anywhere, but the same can’t be said for right fielder Eddie Rosario. With just one open outfield spot, the organization has at least three corner talents to generate a plan for. Now able to call the 2020 Major League Baseball year, last season, it comes with the reality that top prospect Alex Kirilloff made his debut. Surprisingly, he did so in the final game of the year, an elimination tilt against the Houston Astros during the Wild Card round of the Postseason. In making that debut however, it was the second appearance from one of Minnesota’s premier corner outfield talents. Brent Rooker beat Kirilloff to the big leagues. Prior to a season ending injury, Rooker impressed during his first seven major league contests. He posted a hearty .960 OPS and three of his six hits were of the extra base variety (with one leaving the yard). As was the case during his minor league days however, he did post an empty walk tally with a 5/0 K/BB ratio. It’s not that Rooker can’t be an OBP guy, but there’s a lot of swing and miss to his profile as well. Rounding out the trio of talented options is Trevor Larnach. Another first round selection, the former Oregon State Beaver is knocking on the door in his own right. He too isn’t considered a centerfield candidate, but he’s also the least like to move to first base or designated hitter. The bat power is elite, and Baseball Prospectus had him as a top 50 prospect heading into 2020. He owns an .853 professional OPS and was at .842 in just over 40 Double-A games during 2019. Despite the lack of minor league season, his abilities are advanced, and he should be an option early in 2021. What Minnesota does to handle this trio could be one of the most important decisions in their immediate future. It already appears as if Alex Kirilloff has seen his last days in a minor league uniform, and Brent Rooker did nothing to warrant a step back either. Kirilloff could open as Minnesota’s left fielder to kick off 2021, and Rooker’s role expands if Nelson Cruz is not retained. How Larnach fits will be interesting to see, but you can bet he’s ready to kick that door in. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will likely always need to have a strong backup plan for if and when Byron Buxton’s aggressive style lands him on the shelf. Until that happens though, none of these guys are players solely needing to come up and sit. LaMonte Wade Jr. and Jake Cave are both great backup options, but neither is the horse you want to tie a buggy too. The Twins have a group of corner guys ready to take over, and how they deploy them all is a narrative worth watching. Rooker, Larnach, and Kirilloff couldn’t have less similar backgrounds being separated by accomplishments at the collegiate and high school level. They’ve all turned heads on a pro field though, and you can bet than Minnesota will be looking to make that a constant reality at Target Field for many years to come. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

If the Twins number one decision this winter is whether or not to re-sign Nelson Cruz, the second most important may be what to do with left fielder Eddie Rosario. The home-grown prospect is due for a raise in arbitration and at a project $9 million or so, it’s down to crunch time. Eddie Rosario’s all but established as a big-league veteran by now, but it’s also well known what his production profile looks like. He’s a free swinger that has the ability to do damage while leaving a significant amount of opportunity on the table. He’s a poor on-base hitter, and defensively he’s rarely completely checked in. After admitting to his shortcomings publicly this offseason, Rosario committed to making strides defensively and showing better plate discipline. In the shortened season that was, it resulted in a 16-point increase to OBP (.316) and a 9 run DRS swing (+3). Given the muted amount of games and innings, the defensive mark was on pace to generate a career best DRS tally with a UZR to follow suit. He also posted five outfield assists in just 51 games. Still people attempt to run on his arm. So, that’s the good news. The bad news is that his totals resulted in just a .257/.316/.476 slash line with a 2.9 fWAR/162. That’s not to suggest Rosario is a bad player by any means, but a 2.9 fWAR would’ve been just the 25th (of a total 53) best mark among qualified outfielders in 2019. For Rosario, that also would’ve represented the second highest tally of his career. What Minnesota must decide is where they project Rosario going forward, and what they logically see from the alternative options. At 29-years-old it’s entirely fair to argue that this is where the Puerto Rican enters his prime. Unfortunately, that more often translates to enhanced production based upon current trends rather than an ultimate change in approach. In other words, the lack of strike zone command isn’t going to suddenly get better because of his peak physical stature. Entering the final year of arbitration, there certainly could be added motivation as he looks for that first big contract. On the alternative options front the Twins likely need to look no further than their internal assets. Alex Kirilloff made his Major League debut in game two of the American League Wild Card series against the Houston Astros. If I were a betting man, and I am, seeing Kirilloff return to the minors in 2021 seems unlikely. He’s a natural corner outfielder and appears ready to assume that role immediately. Although the arm doesn’t profile the same, Kirilloff is a vastly better hitting prospect with both plus on-base and power skills. Brent Rooker needs a role, although is less certain with a deeper floor, and top fellow prospect Trevor Larnach is near-ready as well. Add in LaMonte Wade and Jake Cave being capable options and you’ve got yourself a stable. I don’t see Minnesota getting a ton for Rosario in trade. He’s under team control for just one more season, and teams (as would be the case for the Twins) likely aren’t lining up to pay a career .788 OPS guy over $9 million. Non-tendering Rosario would seem like a misstep but only given the uncertainty as to where that financial commitment goes. If the Twins can allocate those funds to another player filling a separate need, then so be it. You’d have a hard time spinning a non-tender as positive if the money goes unspent, however. Last offseason seemed like a prime opportunity to trade Rosario. He was coming off of MVP votes and posted his third straight season with an OPS at .800 or above. When that didn’t happen, the future became a bit murkier. It’s hard to lean one way or another without having the other part of the decision-making process in hand as well, but this is a storyline to watch over the winter. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

What do you give a team that has everything? How about more of a good thing? Here’s the deal, Minnesota doesn’t have a ton of glaring holes to fill this offseason. The rotation has some openings though, so why not begin at the top? Trevor Bauer, write yourself a check.The lineup should remain virtually unchanged going into 2021. Eddie Rosario is a prime non-tender candidate given his production and assume cost. Also noting that both Brent Rooker and Alex Kirilloff appear major league ready, there’s an immediate replacement to be had. If Nelson Cruz is retained, and hopefully only on a reasonable contract, then much of the punch should be back. Where Derek Falvey has work to do is on the pitching front. Minnesota was actually very good on the bump each of the past two seasons, but there’s an exodus of sorts that is taking place this winter. Only three of the rotation spots are accounted for, and finding more pitching is the goal of every organization. For a guy familiar with the former Cleveland Indians pitcher, a reunion between Derek and Trevor Bauer makes a lot of sense. Here’s the deal though, it’s highly unlikely and that’s because every team in baseball could use Trevor Bauer. He knows that, and every front office around the league knows that. Whether a multi-year deal is struck, or he sticks to his guns as a hired assassin on one-year pacts, the payday is going to come. Expected to be named the National League Cy Young winner, Bauer posted a ridiculous 1.73 ERA across 73.0 innings in 2020. He owned a 12.3 K/9 with just a 2.1 BB/9 en route to a 276 ERA+. Arguably no one in the game knows their body better than Bauer knows his, and he’s continued to push the boundaries of what can be expected from him. Turning 30 in January, there’s also expected to be plenty of mileage left on his arm. He wants to extract the most from himself in terms of performance and was able to convince the Reds to allow him an opportunity to pitch on just four days rest. Sustaining that throughout a full season would be a throwback of sorts, but he has it down to a science in order to make it work. Those additional trips to the mound would seemingly provide more value to any suitor, especially if only carrying the risk for a single season at a time. Circling back to what Minnesota has in front of them, they’re coming off inking the largest free agent contract in history. However, prorated pay in a Covid shortened sprint had the total expense checking in just north of $55 million, or 18th in baseball (and two spots shy of league average). Despite the losses in fan generated revenues this season, the reality is no franchises find themselves in a place of struggle, and especially not a Twins team right in the heart of their competitive window. It makes sense for the front office to spend a bit on the bullpen, hand out a nice chunk of change to Nelson Cruz, and maybe find a utility man that requires a little bit more of a monetary commitment. In all of that though, there’s not really an avenue to a significant expense. Minnesota will be up against plenty of competition for Bauer’s services, but handing him a blank check would be ego stroking and potentially enough to get it done. This should be great theater to watch unfold, and Twins Daily Women in Baseball participant Rachel Luba is going to have a field day representing her high-profile client. Where the Twins can allow themselves to enter the ring is in saying the top of the staff is yours, write the amount that will get it done. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins finished their 2020 season with a whimper. After being among the best teams in baseball all year, they drew an ideal Postseason matchup in the Houston Astros, and immediately proceeded to fall flat. It was the offense that let them down, and now they must decide if a key contributor should return in 2021.Nelson Cruz has operated as the designated hitter for the Minnesota Twins each of the past two seasons. In 2020 he was playing in his age-39 campaign and turned 40 years old in the midst of it. Looking for a two-year deal on the open market as a free agent, the exceptionally well cared for body will be 42 years old by the time said deal expires. Rocco Baldelli will have a huge hole in his lineup without the Dominican napper, but should the front office look to fill that with someone else? You can’t make a case against Cruz without first looking at what he’s provided. His .992 OPS in 2020 was the second-best mark of his career, topped only by the 1.031 total in 2019. He blasted 16 dingers in just 53 games and any concerns about a wrist tendon seem to be all but gone. With the designated hitter expected to remain universal, he’ll have no games in which Minnesota is forced to sit him from the lineup, and he remains dialed into his body and health more than any other athlete can claim. So, why wouldn’t the Twins look to bring him back? I don’t think there’s a case to be made from a financial sense. After signing Josh Donaldson to a franchise record deal last offseason, and being in the middle of a competitive window, payroll should continue to rise in the years ahead. Even if a Cruz contract goes belly up, there’s hardly an argument to make that the Twins couldn’t simply absorb that hit. Spending for the sake of doing so never makes sense, and it’s why payroll hasn’t been the issue in recent memory. Spending when you’re a contender is such a logical ask, the Twins doing anything but for at least the next couple of years would be worthy of handwringing. The only assessment to make when it comes to Nelson Cruz is on the basis of production, and where Father Time ranks in the list of detractors. At some point age is always undefeated, and while David Ortiz experienced a similar final season outburst, there’s hardly a guarantee the production would’ve continued forward. With Cruz, it’s fair to wonder when that time may be coming, and just how steep the decline will be. 2020 is a difficult year to assess from a statistical landscape given the small sample even considering its entirety. However, it’s still worth wondering if anything can be gleaned from short snippets of the season. Cruz raced out to a really strong start and was pacing the league in homers for a time. As the Postseason push came to a head though, he slowed some. Over his final 20 games Cruz slashed just .265/.383/.426 with three home runs. He didn’t homer in his final 10 games including the playoffs, and that dry spell tied a season long dinger absence. An .809 OPS as a low point in a 162-game stretch would be hardly anything to scoff at, so the hope would be a cold streak rather than a decline. What is a bit more troubling is the swing profile that Cruz owned in the season that was. A year ago, Nelson posted an MLB leading 12.5 barrels per plate appearance and had the third highest average exit velocity in the game. His hard-hit rate was 51.5% trailing only Aaron Judge and teammate Miguel Sano. In 2020 Cruz’s barrel rate dropped over three percentage points putting him 27th in baseball. His average exit velo tumbled to 34th in the sport, and his hard-hit rate came in at just 37th (more than a 4% decrease). None of the steps backwards represent an untenable path forwards. In and of themselves, they’re respectable numbers that you’d take from anyone in your lineup. What is bothersome is that the slide is relatively steep, and all of them speak to quickness of the lumber through the zone. What Minnesota needs to deduce is whether that’s reflective of normalization after a career year, or a veteran starting to see some signs of age. We don’t often see players fall off in a comparable state. While there’s ranges that production wanes, how quickly and how drastically it happens remains individualized. I’d prefer that Minnesota did bring Cruz back, I think the level of familiarity and comfort makes it a good fit. The lineup probably needs more protection around him though, especially given the injury histories of some other key contributors. At some point there will need to be a transition from the Boomstick carrying the load to him being a cog in the wheel. Two years, hopefully with an option on the back half, would be the best-case scenario. Nelson Cruz has staved off Father Time for quite a while. He was a late bloomer that has less tread on his tires as well. 500 homers are probably unlikely, but if he sniffs anywhere near that in the next two seasons, whoever he plays for will have gotten more than their money’s worth. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Wednesday was about as ugly as it gets. After giving away the game to Houston on Tuesday, Minnesota watched their Postseason hopes go up in flames, for an 18th consecutive loss. Now out of the end-of-season-tournament, how can we put a Twins spin on the great baseball action still left? If you missed what the San Diego Padres did yesterday afternoon and into the evening, that’s really too bad. It’s performances like those that define October baseball. The Twins are out of it, and so are countless other teams. In fact, the entirety of the AL Central is now eliminated. That doesn’t mean there aren’t avenues to pull for guys that once made an impact in a Minnesota uniform. Ryan Pressly – Houston Astros This one is tough personally because Ryan and his wife Kat are people I’ve gotten to know. They are both awesome individuals, and Ryan evolving into one of the game’s best relievers has been fun to see. Watching him take his abilities to a whole new level in embracing different techniques in Houston was also exciting. The downside is that he’s teammates with Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, and Jose Altuve. I can get past them having just beaten the Twins, and I can even move on from the fact that those guys cheated so substantially. What rubs me the wrong way is that the trio remains brazen, unapologetic, and completely aloof when it comes to their public perception. Ryan, go shove, but the rest of the Astros can shove it. Liam Hendriks and Robbie Grossman – Oakland Athletics Hendriks is hardly a secret anymore. He’s been one of baseball’s best relievers for a number of years, and some new hardware should be coming his way for the performance in 2020. Recently fresh off defeating the Chicago White Sox, there’s plenty to like about that outcome as well. Grossman went from a disaster year defensively with the Twins to a complete turnaround and one of the better glue guys in baseball. He’s not a household name, and while he’s always going to be an OBP-guru, he’ll never rack up the accolades. Both are extremely easy to root for, however. Go Athletics! Aaron Hicks – New York Yankees It’ll be a cold day in hell before I every cheer for the Yankees in a baseball game. That said, former top prospect Aaron Hicks remains among my favorite to follow around the game. He’s been great with New York when healthy, and although it crushed the Twins, the diving catch he made to steal a game winning hit from Max Kepler last summer was nothing short of amazing. Go Aaron, boo Yankees. Nick Anderson – Tampa Bay Rays A first-class organization is always easy to pull for, and the Rays are in the driver’s seat this season as a one seed. Nick Anderson is someone I touch on constantly through Twitter as it still irks me that Derek Falvey let this one get away. The former Twins prospect was tearing up Triple-A and was never given a chance to even flash his stuff at the big-league level. Instead he’s gone on to become one of the nastiest relievers in all of baseball. He’s a Minnesota native, and would’ve looked great in the Twins baby blues. Hopefully, he’s part of a Rays squad that downs the Evil Empire. Brandon Kintzler – Miami Marlins What a season it has been for this team. They needed to basically reconstruct an entire roster just days into an already weird year, and then made the Postseason despite being expected to perform as somewhat of a bottom feeder. Kintzler closed out games for the Twins a couple of years ago and is now doing the same for Miami. He was under-appreciated here and always seemed like a good due. Certainly not going to blow the ball by anyone, but he can serve up ground balls with the best of them. This is a Cinderella story I can get behind. Brusdar Graterol – Los Angeles Dodgers Kenta Maeda came over to the Twins and performed like an absolute ace. There’s nothing wrong with both teams benefitting from a good trade, and it seems like that’s what at play here. Minnesota’s former top pitching prospect closed out a series win following Clayton Kershaw last night. He throws 100 and is always smiling. The Bazooka is a level-headed kid that’s going to see plenty more success. The Dodgers are the favorites, and with good reason. If you want to get behind a near sure thing, this is your team. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

March 12, 2020 is a date I’ll never forget. I was sitting at Pott’s Sports Café in Fort Myers watching Major League Baseball put Spring Training on hold. I’d fly back to Minnesota that evening and wondering whether a season would happen at all became real. Fast forward to today and I am thankful we got here.The 2020 Minnesota Twins were arguably the most impressively constructed roster this franchise has ever seen. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine added a premiere talent in Josh Donaldson to an already loaded roster. They tacked on some necessary bullpen pieces, and the developmental aspects of the organization were in place to take this team to new heights. Following a record setting 307 home run barrage in 2019, and a win total that nearly took down the franchise record, things were going to be tough to top this time around. My contention was that this team may not win as many games, after all the division had gotten better, but they’d be a stronger unit capable of doing even more damage. I think we can fairly look back and say all of that is true. Selfishly baseball provides an out. I find myself pouring hours into Twitter because of the passion this sport drives in me, and the ability that outlet has to connect people. I spend time putting together pieces here at Twins Daily, and my own blog Off the Baggy, because it’s a longform way to share opinions and explain more nuanced analysis. Although it took some very ugly negotiating, and plenty of concessions on both sides, we were given a season this year (even if it was a goofy one). It’s not lost on me that baseball, while a job, requires sacrifice from those that play it. All the money in the world, and mind you many of these guys are not millionaires, does not make up for the distance created between families and friends. I can’t begin to fathom what weeks on the road, quarantined in hotels, and having no mental escape from the game felt like. I do know that the Minnesota Twins roster put forth an incredible effort in navigating those circumstances, and I’m thankful to the players and support staff that worked to make 2020 possible. While this is just a game to many, I think there’s something to be said in regards to how we connect with it. The goal of MLB is to draw new eyeballs, and that’s one that any diehard should embrace. For those that are already tuned in, having an ability to get lost in a daily occurrence and generate a schedule based around first pitch is something to behold. Losing my dad unexpectedly in a car accident a couple of weeks ago, it was this team, this season, and this sport that allowed for something else to drive emotion. As many of you too probably felt, there was a numbness when Carlos Correa launched that ball over the centerfield wall. 18 in a row, completely unfathomable. That this team, that this organization, that we as Minnesota sports fans continue to experience this is a special kind of torture. As unprecedented as that is, I can promise you I’m already counting down the 149 days until Twins baseball returns for the opportunity to allow it all to happen again. Baseball is a labor of love. It’s a long season and a grind that culminates in true happiness for just one organization. If we can continue to plan our lives around something this encapsulating for 6 months of the year though, I’ll be on board without question. In a year of complete turmoil and uncertainty, baseball gave us the opposite. This Twins team gave us the opposite. For that, I’m thankful. Click here to view the article

Despite being the favorite in the opening game of the Wild Card round against the Houston Astros, Minnesota dropped their 17th straight Postseason contest. Now up against two straight elimination games, it’s time to rebound or call it a season for the Twins.Yesterday’s Game Recap HOU 4, MIN 1: Defensive Lapses, Lack of Offense Lead to Another Twins Loss Today Twins vs. Astros 12:08pm CDT TV Broadcast: ESPN2 Betting Lines: MIN -149, O/U 8.0 Twins Starter: Jose Berrios, RHP 4.00 ERA In game one Rocco Baldelli went with the guy who emerged as the Twins staff ace. That was intended to be Jose Berrios, but Kenta Maeda came over from the Los Angeles Dodgers and ate his lunch in year one. This was the first season of his career in which the Puerto Rican has taken a step backwards, but as a traditional streaky starter, 12 games of runway were tough to work with. Going into his final start of the season Berrios had strung together six outings of mastery. Minnesota went 4-2 in that stretch while Berrios worked to a 4-0 record. He posted a 2.14 ERA and allowed just a .547 OPS against. Looking to ride that momentum into the Postseason, the Cincinnati Reds gave him a bit of a fit in his final outing. Lasting just five innings, he allowed four runs on five hits. The whiffs were there as he punched out seven, but dominance was nowhere to be found. Download attachment: Berrios.PNG There’s been a bit of everything this season from Berrios. We’ve seen increased fastball velocity, but command has not been as sharp. Stuff has looked great at times, but missing bats has been less frequent. Minnesota got the pitching in game one and the lineup failed. In game two, they’ll need a complete effort if Houston is going to be pushed to game three. Astros Starter: Jose Urquidy, RHP 2.73 ERA Still working in what amounts to his rookie season, Urquidy has some flashy numbers that aren’t back by anything overpowering. He made just five starts and worked one out shy of 30 innings this season. The ERA is a glowing 2.73, but the FIP is a less positive 4.71. He struck out just 5.2 per nine and limited damage by avoiding free passes. It was up in the air as to what Houston would do in game two, also deciding on lefty Framber Valdez. The southpaw piggybacked Greinke in game one however, leaving Urquidy to take the ball. The Twins have struggled mightily against lefties this season, but the expected potency of the group has been missing against righties too. Download attachment: Urquidy.PNG Urquidy resides just outside of Houston’s top 10 prospects, and it’s because the sum of all parts is better than any one aspect. He’s not a hard thrower, doesn’t miss many bats, and spinning the ball isn’t his thing. He does a good job making you beat him however, and working around trouble isn’t something that phases him. Look for Houston’s Jose to make Minnesota capitalize rather than playing into any of their strengths. Twins Lineup News & Notes - Prior to game one Rocco Baldelli noted he wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Alex Kirilloff make an appearance in this series. As a bopping left-handed bat, that may come into play today against Houston. - The matchup in Cleveland turned out to be more bats than pitching as both aces gave up a run. Unfortunately for the Indians it was expected AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber that was beat around a bit, and New York jumped ahead in that series. - As the only lower seed favored in their matchup, the White Sox held serve as expected. Moving to 15-0 against lefties this season, Chicago dispersed of rookie Jesus Luzardo. Adam Engel started the scoring and Jose Abreu kept up his hot hitting in 2020. See Also 5 Overreactions to the Twins Game 1 Loss 4 Head Scratchers for Baldelli Against Astros MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins came into their Wild Card series against the Houston Astros as the series favorite. Despite an early lead, they coughed up the game due to defensive miscues. With Rocco Baldelli’s job defined by positioning for optimal outcomes, he too should shoulder blame.A season ago Baldelli was named American League Manager of the Year. It was warranted. The former star player guided the Twins to a record setting home run total and one of the most successful seasons in Twins history. Often times the award is handed to a guy leading a surprising organization to new heights. In 2020 expectations were lifted, but Baldelli created plenty of confusion. The vaunted lineup on paper failed to perform plenty of nights and drawing the infield in during early stretches of games became commonplace. In the biggest game of the season however, four decisions struck me as poor. Kenta Maeda is lifted after 5 innings and 91 pitches Minnesota had a 1-0 lead at the time, but the only thing going for the Twins in this contest was Maeda. Despite forcing Zack Greinke to work in the 1st inning, no runs were scored with the bases loaded and just one out. The Astros starter then settled in, and Framber Valdez dominated after a shaky first inning of relief. It seemed questionable to assume that one run would be enough to win this one and hoping the bullpen could lock things down for nearly half the game was a big ask. After getting both Matt Wisler and Trevor May warm previously, it’d have been nice to see Maeda return for the 6th and at least go one batter at a time. He could’ve been lifted at any point then. Instead the horses of the pen have no all been used while Houston didn’t trot out a single reliever. Mitch Garver pinch hits for Ryan Jeffers to start the 7th inning It was maybe an aggressive move to start rookie Ryan Jeffers in game one despite just 26 games of action. His .791 OPS and they way he worked behind the plate had earned it, however. Combine that with Garver slumping massively since his IL return and there was nothing about the decision that needed defending. In response to a lefty being on the mound though, Baldelli became convinced that 2019 Garver was who he was calling off the bench. Instead four straight curveballs, each one looked at, was all it too to get Minnesota’s pinch hitter. Letting Jeffers hit in that spot was the right move. You started him because of what he’d shown thus far, and he put up exit velocities of 105 and 109 mph earlier in this one. It was a second guessing that was unfounded and made no sense. From here, we get two more problems. Alex Avila replaces Mitch Garver defensively in the 8th inning Immediately following a poor at bat, Garver is lifted prior to taking the field. Despite being arguably a better receiver than Avila, Baldelli decided the veteran backstop was the play. Of course, there was still another catcher on the roster thanks to the Twins rostering four in this series, but it never was going to make sense for the position to become a revolving door. Garver could’ve caught the 8th inning and been more likely to steal strikes. Avila remains on the bench and represents your last true catcher behind the plate. Willians Astudillo pinch hits for Alex Avila in the 9th inning Now we get to the third cascading effect of the original choice to lift Jeffers. Trailing by three runs in a momentum setting first game, the Twins responded with Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco singling to right field. The batter would represent the tying run with a single out and runners on first and second. The right-handed bats left were Ehire Adrianza and Astudillo. Neither ideal, and the latter had just 16 big league at bats this season. On the very first pitch Astudillo lunged at a bender and hit a routine ground ball to third for the double play. The entirety of this move was necessitated because of Rocco’s initial mistake to lift Jeffers. It was in this at bat though that highlighting Astudillo’s negative impact is so simple. He’s not Luis Arraez, and his ability to make contact is quite literally a negative. His chase rate is not good, and neither is the hard-hit percentage. By putting the ball in play, which is his sole intention, you’re more likely to experience a negative result. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Probably based on the narrative of unexpected overahievement.

While it did seem like we would struggle to have baseball in 2020 for a period of time, Sunday marked the culmination of the regular season. Major League Baseball overcame outbreaks and adverse conditions to reach its destined conclusion. Now, as a member of the IBWAA, I needed to look back and hand out some votes. Just like the BBWAA, the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America votes on all major award categories on a yearly basis. The results will be tabulated and revealed at a later date, but here is what my ballot looked like. American League MVP: Jose Ramirez (runners up: Jose Abreu, Mike Trout, Brandon Lowe, Nelson Cruz) Ramirez posted 3.4 fWAR in 2020 to lead all players in the game. Cleveland made a strong comeback into the AL Central Division race at the end of the season, and it was on the bat of Ramirez that the White Sox met their match. Cleveland’s lineup struggled to produce for much of the season, but it was Ramirez that provided the spark and will be their leader come Postseason play. National League MVP: Freddie Freeman (runners up: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Mookie Betts, Trea Turner) What a story in the National League. The Atlanta Braves were expected to be good, but Freeman was dealt a tough hand when contracting COVID-19 and dealing with substantial symptoms. He mentioned being extremely fearful in the midst of his illness and got a late start to Summer Camp. He then posted a 3.3 fWAR on the season and trailed only Cleveland’s Ramirez in that category across the entire landscape of the game. American League Cy Young: Shane Bieber (runners up: Kenta Maeda, Hyun-Jin Ryu) Little debate needed to take place here. While there were other strong pitching performances this season, it was Bieber that was the cream of the crop. Not Justin posted double-digit strikeout performances in eight of his 12 starts this season, and he gave up more than two runs in an outing just three times. It was mastery each time he stepped on the mound. National League Cy Young: Trevor Bauer (runners up: Yu Darvish, Jacob deGrom) Cincinnati looked to be a darling team this year, and if they make noise in the Postseason it’ll be in large part due to their pitching staff. Trevor Bauer takes down the ERA title and racked up a career best 12.3 K/9. He led the league in ERA+, WHIP, and H/9. In his final year with the Reds, there’s little denying a nice payday is coming. American League Rookie of the Year: Kyle Lewis (runners up: James Karinchak, Luis Robert) Chicago’s rising star was expected to run away with this, but it was the Seattle Mariners rookie that jumped out to a quick lead and hid. Kyle Lewis has plenty of swing and miss in his profile, but he played a great centerfield while shower tremendous power with his bat as well. Adjustments will be necessary down the line, but there’s little denying he was the cream of the crop in 2020. National League Rookie of the Year: Devin Williams (runners up: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Alec Bohm) Taken in the 2nd round of the 2013 draft, Williams took his time getting to the big leagues. In 27.0 IP this year he racked up a ridiculous 17.7 K/9 and allowed just a single earned run on eight total hits. Dominance is what the Brewers got out of their stud reliever, and it’s that effort that took him from unknown to award winner. American League Manager of the Year: Kevin Cash (runners up: Bob Melvin, Rocco Baldelli) With the Yankees expected to run away in the AL East, the Tampa Bay Rays capitalizing on opportunity was impressive. Reaching 40 wins and posting the best record in the American League, Tampa consistently beat not only New York, but Toronto and the rest of the division as well. Cash got great seasons from more than a handful of players and the Rays have him to thank for their position as the one seed. National League Manager of the Year: Don Mattingly (runners up: Dave Roberts, David Ross) This season was always going to be one of unprecedented proportions, but when you need to replace over half a team due to a virus outbreak, you’ve got another thing coming. Don Mattingly not only overcame that massive hurdle, but he guided an afterthought Marlins team back to the Postseason. Miami could pose a threat in a three-game series, and their skipper is to thank for positioning them there. American League Reliever of the Year: Liam Hendriks (runners up: Brad Hand, James Karinchak) Operating as the closer for one of the best teams in baseball, Hendriks got plenty of opportunity to perform in key situations. He racked up 14 saves while posting a 13.1 K/9. He also owned a 1.78 ERA and had an even better 1.14 FIP. All of the strikeouts, none of the free passes, the Aussie continues to be one of the best in baseball. National League Reliever of the Year: Devin Williams (runners up: Edwin Diaz, Raisel Iglesias) It was nice to see the Mets Edwin Diaz rebound from 2019 and be in the running here, but the Brewers rookie was among the most dominant pitchers the sport has ever seen with his work in 2020. He didn’t pitch the 9th with Milwaukee having the services of Josh Hader, but Williams was often the guy in key spots. His efficiency only fueled his dominance and taking home another award here is only fitting. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz